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Simply put: you’re going to want to check in here each week before setting your DraftKings lineups. That’s because I’ll be helping you sift through your DFS options without spinning my wheels talking fantasy scoring.

No, my goal will not be to opine to you on the highest scoring plays of the week’s slate; that’s a semi-fruitless task, and one you’re swarmed with on any other DFS advice site. Rather, I’m going to be reporting to you on the value of your options – their scoring abilities relative to their salaries. You’ll be filled in on the details of two weekly measures:

DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of A.J. Green’s next 40-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.

H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. You can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:

(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000

Note that, this week, I've broken a little more this week from my projections in making recommendations. This week features several sexy matchups and home/away splits, not to mention extremely tight DraftKings pricing that will dampen the outlooks of high-dollar QBs. Furthermore, there are a few small-sample (and no-sample) projections that go through the projection model a little wonky. Nevertheless, as always, H-value has guided me to some strong values to fill out my GPP portfolio. Rest assured, I'm pretty much on board with anyone from atop my chart in the right tournament roster.

On to my Week 5 DraftKings plays:

Quarterback

Cash Considerations

Ben Roethlisberger

Lately, you can set your watch by the Jets secondary being picked apart. Two of their four QB opponents have topped 300 yards, and the other two posted passer ratings of 101.0 and 116.5 (on the backs of 5 touchdown passes). And they’re generous enough with pacing to provide gobs of opportunity – Jets games thus far have featured a robust 124 snaps per game. That’s a matchup tailor-made for Roethlisberger, who’s averaged a stunning 339 yards and 2.8 touchdowns over his last 17 home games (including playoffs). That’s fantastic production over a solid sample size, so he’s squarely in play in cash lineups this week. He’ll cost you this week, but the $300 discount from Brady is a nice cherry on top of a sundae that carries the same floor and a better ceiling.

He carries plenty of GPP appeal, too. A Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown or Roethlisberger-Le’Veon Bell stack isn’t the most economical – it’d cost you 29-34% of your allotment alone. But it makes the most sense, given the opponent and location, and you won’t want to be caught without it. This game should bleed offensive fireworks.

Tom Brady

Brady will likely be the highest-owned cash-game QB of the week. As always, his 22.5-point value marker is within reach with or without gaudy volume and touchdown totals. While there’s some concern over game flow (the Patriots are currently 11-point favorites), New England often achieves its big wins on the back of Brady TD throws. Of course, he projects to solid volume in his own right – the team did throw the ball 68 times over the first two weeks with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett under center – so his cash prospects seem fine. Don’t hesitate to chase the chalk and roster Brady in a healthy chunk of your cash lineups.

GPP Options

Brian Hoyer

I expect Hoyer to draw a fairly solid ownership share this week, so he’s also a fine cash option. But with almost all of my cash portfolio tied up in Roethlisberger and Brady, my Hoyer exposure will come from tournament play, where I expect 4x value to be a near-formality. He’ll need 22.0 points to reach GPP value, a number he’s bested in both his 2016 starts and should hit again with the sorry Colts defense on tap. Through four games, Indianapolis has allowed QBs to notch 26+ DraftKings points twice. That includes Blake Bortles’ performance last week in London, and the Colts will be the first team to play immediately after a London game. I’m expecting a jet-lagged Colts defense to allow heavy Bears scoring, so I want in on Hoyer, who’s been a touchdown machine thus far.

Tyrod Taylor

Few will be interested in rostering Taylor, who’s topped 246 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, or 17 DraftKings points just once each through four games. That’s not a sexy profile, but it’s nice to see that DraftKings hasn’t figured his rushing upside into his pricing. Costing just $5,200, Taylor likely only needs to throw for about 225 yards and two scores to reach 4x value. The Rams boast a strong defense, but they’re still leaking touchdowns. Thus far, only two teams have allowed more TD passes from inside the 10. The table is set for Taylor to be a top-three value from the bottom of the salary ranks.

Running Back

Cash Considerations

Melvin Gordon

Topping the week’s cash list is Gordon, at least according to the model. He projects to score a hair behind DeMarco Murray, despite an equally strong usage profile and matchup but a better offensive pace. Gordon isn’t running efficiently, but given his volume outlook and short-yardage profile – Gordon has 6 touchdown runs from inside the 10 thus far – that likely won’t matter much. Besides, he faces a Raiders defense that’s allowed 5.08 yards per rush and three short TDs themselves. Gordon’s price has swollen to the point where you’d like to see more consistency on the dollar, but makes sense considering the locked-in, high-impact usage.

Jordan Howard

He’ll be owned just about everywhere; I expect a rate close to those of Gordon’s and Bell’s, if not higher. It certainly makes sense; he’s a still-affordable way to roster an efficient bell cow in a cherry matchup. Some may be concerned over game script, as the Bears sit as moderate underdogs (though that line has moved in their favor). But Howard is a three-down back, and the Colts have allowed six receptions per game to RBs. So there’s no real worry about Howard’s floor, which is still well within value range for his salary. Besides, there’s real potential for the Bears to control this matchup to a degree. The Colts are the first team to play immediately after a London game, so they’re best viewed as a short-week team.

DeMarco Murray

Murray checks off the key boxes for a cash game staple RB. He’s notched 18+ touches in each game thus far, and he dominates passing down and goal line work. He’ll need 20-22 points to cash this week, and my model sees that as a fairly easy task – he projects to score more than any other back. I like that to hold up well against a mediocre Miami defense that’s allowed 20+ points each to LeGarrette Blount and the tandem of Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. The bottom line is that there’s plenty of breathing room for Murray to reach his value marker. Provided he finds the end zone and catches 4 balls, just moderate efficiency should get him into the 100-yard range. And his multi-TD upside (tied with Gordon for a league-high 6 dark zone carries since Week 2) suggests even a low-efficiency day would bring value.

GPP Options

Devonta Freeman

Freeman already drips GPP appeal as the higher-volume option of a tandem in a fast-paced, successful offense. This week, his prospects seem likely to go to another level. Even in a dicey matchup with the Broncos, Freeman deserves healthy GPP attention. Tevin Coleman’s sickle cell trait can be exacerbated by playing at high altitudes, so expect his Sunday role to be scaled back if not whacked altogether. That would leave Freeman to handle at least 80-85% of a workload that projects to 27 rushes and 6 targets. The value at this cost – just $5,000, by far his cheapest since early 2015 – is monumental. He’s an accomplished runner, receiver, and short-yardage weapon, so volume like this would make him an upper-tier tournament play.

Le’Veon Bell

I don’t love Bell’s outlook in cash this week. He costs $7,500, and his matchup looks prohibitive – Bell averages about 37% fewer DraftKings points when he finishes a game under 4.0 yards per carry. That’s a death knell for many backs, but Bell is a weekly threat to provide a world-class performance on his volume, explosiveness, and versatility. Obviously, that kind of resume often makes you GPP gold, which Bell is on absolutely any week of the season. He’s always a threat to turn small volume into huge value multipliers (or in Bell’s case, heavy volume into off-the-charts value), so both his floor and ceiling are outstanding. The Jets may succeed in limiting his effectiveness, but won’t hamper his monstrous opportunity and ability to fill the stat sheet in different scripts.

Jerick McKinnon

Matt Asiata

McKinnon was supposed to split the workload 65/35 or so with Matt Asiata, ceding short-yardage and a few passing-down snaps and carrying a very uneven weekly outlook. But through two games, he’s been used as the offensive focal point, drawing 60% of team rushes (to Asiata’s 21%) and 3 of 4 in the dark zone. He ran roughshod over the Giants last week for 4.7 yards per carry and scored, seeing 5 targets along the way. McKinnon remains way, way too cheap as a featured, three-down back who’s also a 6.5-point favorite. A stack with the Minnesota defense is very appealing. Going cheaper and more contrarian, Asiata could be in play in large-field tournaments. He’s historically a strong producer on the goal line, and Houston has been gashed there thus far (4 touchdowns on 11 attempts).

DeAndre Washington

Jalen Richard

These two will take on Latavius Murray’s vacated role, and the matchup isn’t pretty; San Diego has quietly been beastly against the run. But their explosiveness makes them intriguing plays, as either could churn out 4x value. Washington will dominate the ownership battle; he’ll start, and there’s virtually no price difference. He’ll make a decent cash target for salary relief purposes, but will likely command elevated ownership in multipliers and small-scale GPPs. A dice roll on Washington is in hopes of a long run or two and the bulk of receiving work. It seems perfectly fair to expect that, but Richard carries similar odds and will be far less owned. He’s the one I’d target first in deep GPPs.

Wide Receiver

Cash Considerations

Antonio Brown

Brown is Brown, and he faces a Jets defense that’s allowed WRs to post 4.6x and 7.4x lines, in addition to big tight end performances in the other two. He’ll be owned nearly everywhere in this matchup, and while I can’t outright project him to reach his 29.4-point cash marker, we still want him. Fading Brown on such a high-ownership week is a make-or-break move, a strategy piece far more valuable than quibbling over whether a 25-point day brought cash value.

Emmanuel Sanders

Sanders has quickly proven the Broncos’ prime receiving threat. He’s out-targeted Demaryius Thomas 42-27 thus far, and provided 6.0x and 3.6x value over the last two weeks. Yet he remains the cheaper DraftKings option of the two. Much of that is probably due to popular opinion of Thomas as the preeminent big-play threat, but that’s bunk. Thomas has a big edge in yards per catch, but Sanders has absolutely dominated the short yardage game – he’s seen 7 targets from inside the 10, and no other Bronco has seen two. To those ends, I’m comfortable rolling out Sanders in cash games as long as Trevor Siemian is under center, and I don’t necessarily think he’s done for if Paxton Lynch gets the start. It’s encouraging that he drew a whopping 11 of Paxton Lynch’s 24 targets late in Week 4; it seems a fair guess that he’d remain the team’s top target with either man under center.

Quincy Enunwa

DraftKings isn’t impressed with Enunwa’s breakout. He remains priced well under $5,000, the main slate’s WR40 in terms of salary, despite a high-volume role as the No. 2 in Eric Decker’s absence. Enunwa was showing well even before Decker went down, posting 4.8x and 3.5x value in weeks 1 and 2. As an every-down player last week (67 of 71 snaps), he drew 7 targets and created a respectable 6-catch, 60-yard line, impressive for his matchup with the Seahawks. Pittsburgh brings no such stifling outlook; they’ve allowed 300+ passing yards in 3 of 4 games thus far and 287 in the other. Enunwa seems ripe for 8-10 targets, and his awesome efficiency (10.6 yards per target) makes for a fantastic, cheap cash play.

Terrelle Pryor

Pryor is getting there, using his upper-shelf athleticism and explosiveness to transition nicely into a big-play wideout. I don’t especially love his Week 5 lot in life, as his Browns are heavy underdogs and I don’t anticipate a very efficient day from rookie quarterback Cody Kessler. But his price has remained exceptionally low for a No. 1 wideout, especially one with the ability to hit the end zone on any given deep ball and will likely see a few gadget-play snaps.

TY Hilton

Hilton was held largely in check in London, with his 10 targets producing just 42 yards. But we know he typically churns out far more than that; the important takeaway was that he easily dominated the Colts’ non-running back targets. With Donte Moncrief out, Hilton is usually the primary read in the progression and the team’s best downfield creator. Panic over last week’s yardage if you want, but I’ll trust in the target share – between 10 and 12 in all four games thus far – and the knowledge that the opposing Bears trot out one of the most talent-starved secondaries in football. They’ve already allowed 6.7x (Will Fuller), 4.5x (Cole Beasley), and 3.6x (Terrance Williams) performances this season.

GPP Options

Odell Beckham, Jr.

It’ll happen soon, gang. He’s seeing plenty of work and enough red zone usage to remain a smart weekly stab at a 40-point eruption. Any week now, Odell. It might as well be this one; the Packers are allowing an eye-popping 8.9 yards per attempt, as well as the most catches of 30+ yards in football. Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones have eaten them alive over the last two games, and GPP players would be shrewd to expect Beckham’s best performance yet. A line with around 8 catches, 110 yards, and 2 touchdowns would bring home value, and that’s historically very doable for the freak of nature. He is working on a short week, but this is very juicy on paper, and Beckham may never cost as little as $8,500 again.

Brandon Marshall

Both Marshall and Enunwa carry strong value against the Steelers’ burnable pass defense. But while Enunwa, who comes $2,500 cheaper, is the stronger value and will carry more ownership, Marshall brings a little more GPP appeal. After all, he’s far more distinguished than his teammate, and his target share from Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been in question. And he’ll help to differentiate your lineup more than Enunwa, who will likely be owned at more than 15%.

Steve Smith, Sr.

Smith is very much back on the scene. His 22 targets are team-high over the last two weeks, and he’s maximized two good matchups to 4.1x and 6.2x value. He’ll draw some Josh Norman this week, which will keep his ownership palatable for GPPs, though he should see enough non-Norman time to threaten another 20-point performance.

Sammie Coates Jr

Coates is a legitimate burner, with five catches of 40+ yards through four games and two more near-catches. Markus Wheaton is either still hurting, bad at football, or some combination of the two; he was benched in Week 4 and may not see much of a role going forward. Coates could find himself battling with Darrius Heyward-Bey for the snap-by-snap right to tear the lid off a Jets defense that’s given up the fourth-most completions of 20+ yards (16). Returning GPP value on his salary requires around 15 points, so two long catches and/or his first career touchdown would likely hit that marker. A power stack with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown could be in order, pairing Coates’ dirt-cheap upside with two proven mega-studs.

Robert Woods

You could also dig cheaply into Woods, who’s been dominating Bills targets in Sammy Watkins’ absence. He’s patently unsexy and carries virtually no upside, but his 4x marker is reachable. He needs 15 points, which is within reach with another 8-10 targets. He played exceptionally well against the Patriots last week, catching 7 of 10 passes for 89 yards. A repeat performance against the Rams’ solid pass defense is a tall order, but a doable one that brings big salary relief.

Tight End

Cash Considerations

Kyle Rudolph

Rudolph has it all working right now. He’s the 1A/1B target for a short-passes-only quarterback (26.3% of Sam Bradford’s targets), and he’s dominating in the dark zone (targeted on all four Bradford passes from inside the 10). In a deep pool of value-driven Week 5 tight end picks, Rudolph looks like the safest – and his touchdown potential brings impressive upside. Anything below his 10.8-point cash marker would be a surprise, as he’s stormed past that for three weeks straight.

Zach Ertz

I love to follow highly-owned players in cash games, especially at a volatile position like tight end. And if early buzz among the Footballguys writing staff is on point, Ertz will be very high in ownership as he returns to face a Lions defense that’s been pathetic against tight ends. I don’t know if I see Ertz outscoring every value-laden TE in this price range, but I’ll certainly take the chalk in a cash game.

Hunter Henry

Like Ertz, Henry is a guy I’m not incredibly bullish on. He’s been a true big-play dynamo thus far, but hasn’t been overly involved in the offense (a decent 15% of targets as the starter) or as a red zone weapon. I tend to chase touchdown potential when looking at cheap, low-volume TEs. Still, just because his receptions have been downfield and impressive doesn’t necessarily make them unrepeatable. Most importantly, Henry is a cheap and upside-filled way to follow heavy chalk, so he’s a solid cash option. There are several similar values I prefer, however.

GPP Options

Cameron Brate

Brate is officially woven deeply into the Buccaneers’ high-volume passing game, even more so than Vincent Jackson. Since Brate took over the starting role two weeks ago, he’s beaten the No. 2 wideout 18-11 in targets, bringing a more stable floor than touchdown specialists are used to seeing. He’s not much of a yardage generator, so even his high-volume days require a touchdown or two to meet DFS value. But that’s a fair dice roll against a Panthers defense that’s already given up four touchdowns to TEs. Brate brings a moderate floor with easy 4x upside along with major salary relief.

Zach Miller

Two games is not much of a sample size, but Miller looks like a fixture in Brian Hoyer’s short-yardage progressions. He’s drawn the ball on 4 of Hoyer’s 6 throws from inside the 10-yard line, scoring 3 times, en route to 9.6x and 4.5x value. And with Kevin White on injured reserve and Eddie Royal looking iffy to suit up Sunday, Miller and Alshon Jeffery should dominate targets in Indianapolis. That makes for a tasty power stack, considering the potential for the Colts’ and Bears’ poor defenses to create a shootout. If that happens, you definitely want the dark zone producers.

Rob Gronkowski

As many have pointed out this week, this is the cheapest you’ll ever see a Gronkowski-led Patriots stack. He’s been eased back into action amidst reports of more serious hamstring troubles, but assuming he suits up Sunday, how can you fade him entirely? Tom Brady’s return should open up the volume a bit (though that’s not a given), and a healthy Gronkowski projects to a much stronger role than the team’s fringe wideouts. Gronkowski could dominate a very successful passing attack Sunday – Cleveland has been gashed by all three viable tight ends it’s faced thus far, including Jordan Reed’s two-touchdown performance last week.

Defense/Special Teams

Cash Considerations.

Minnesota

Obviously. They’re second in football in sacks, and the Texans are handing the ball over at a rough rate. With a lockdown cornerback (Xavier Rhodes) to control Houston’s outside threats, I don’t expect much scoring here, either.

New England

Again, obviously. Cleveland has shown life in the Cody Kessler Era, but it’s come with a healthy smattering of sacks and turnovers. The Browns are likely to approach or hit 20 points, but it’ll be a bumpy ride there.

Pittsburgh

I don’t trust the Steelers’ pass rush or secondary, but I trust Ryan Fitzpatrick to be Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. In a high-paced matchup in Pittsburgh, where Ben Roethlisberger & Co. score like maniacs, Fitzpatrick will be throwing a ton (projected for 41.8 attempts, second-most on the slate). His propensity to throw picks should crop up more than once.

GPP Options

Washington

Baltimore

This matchup looks set for a 13-10 slugfest, and both defenses have been forcing turnovers lately, so I’m on board in most of my tournament lineups. Ownership will probably swing toward the favored Ravens, which makes sense, but I’ll be running contrarian with more Washington in my portfolio.

Follow @JustinHoweFF