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Simply put: you’re going to want to check in here each week before setting your DraftKings lineups. That’s because I’ll be helping you sift through your DFS options without spinning my wheels talking fantasy scoring.

No, my goal will not be to opine to you on the highest scoring plays of the week’s slate; that’s a semi-fruitless task, and one you’re swarmed with on any other DFS advice site. Rather, I’m going to be reporting to you on the value of your options – their scoring abilities relative to their salaries. You’ll be filled in on the details of two weekly measures:

DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of Allen Robinson’s next 40-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.

H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. You can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:

(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000

On to my Week 4 DraftKings plays:

Quarterback

(This week features some wonky outliers, so I strayed more from my projections than usual for these plays.)

Cash Considerations

Cam Newton

Newton’s expensive ($7,800), but his prospects facing Atlanta’s barely-there defense are very nice. He needs 23.4 points to hit cash value, and that doesn’t look like a major problem – the Falcons have allowed quarterbacks to post 26.5, 25.0, and 29.9 thus far. Only the Chargers have been thrown on more than the Falcons, and they’re allowing half their opponents’ dark zone attempts to produce touchdowns. Don’t overthink this one; Cam could reach that 3x marker by halftime.

Drew Brees

Philip Rivers

There will be tons and tons of DFS ownership tied up in this game, thanks to its Vegas mega-projection of 53.5 points. That’s good news for us – in cash contests, we generally want to follow the chalk and ride high ownership numbers. The question here is simple: which is more likely to produce 3x value? Based on game script, it seems Brees carries more stable potential to see the volume we like in our cash-game quarterbacks. He projects to more pass attempts than anyone, and as four-point underdogs, his Saints don’t look likely to lean on their run game Sunday. Rivers carries less of a volume projection, but similar efficiency numbers and a $700 DraftKings discount – and his receivers will be facing far less pressure from the New Orleans secondary. And it’s worth noting that Rivers’ sudden interest in pushing the ball deep downfield has manifested in my projections. According to my model, Rivers is set up to lead the entire quarterback slate – by a healthy margin – in long completions (30+ yards). It stands to reason that the Saints, who have given up more such completions than any team, are likely to let that happen.

GPP Options

Kirk Cousins

The Browns defense isn’t quite as atrocious as popular opinion believes, but it’s certainly ripe to be targeted. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 21.7 DraftKings points against them, including semi-gems from the likes of Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill. Cousins’ Week 4 appeal stems from his yardage outlook – he projects to throw 41 passes against a decimated secondary – but his GPP prospects come from touchdown potential. Cousins stands second in the league in dark zone attempts thus far (12), but has yet to throw a touchdown from there. That smells due for some positive regression, and this matchup – one likely to provide Cousins with short fields and efficient possessions – could be the breakthrough. DraftKings has priced him appropriately, but his strong 4x-value probability brings big-time tournament appeal.

Joe Flacco

Flacco has hit the ground trudging in 2016, but his Week 4 matchup could hardly be prettier. The Raiders’ upgraded secondary has not looked good, scorched into oblivion by both high-volume passing games it’s faced. Don’t hold me to it, but I see GPP appeal here. Flacco is unlikely to see ownership beyond 5%, so an impressive volume game could provide a huge boost. The Raiders have been burned repeatedly on the outside edges and by tight ends, so Flacco represents half of a few intriguing role-specific stacks.

Running Back

Cash Considerations

Melvin Gordon

He’s comfortably projected to take 85% or more of the team’s rushes going forward, and that’s a profile that should be hot-glued into your cash lineups. No, he hasn’t been particularly efficient (3.6 yards per rush and 6.1 per target), but the value of a bell cow back on a fast-paced offense is extraordinary in cash contests. It’s especially fun when you can pit him against the Saints, who allowed 31.7 DraftKings points to Raiders RBs in Week 1 before a head-shaking 61.6 to the Falcons last Monday. Gordon is dominating his backfield, catching passes and producing near the goal line, so there’s no projection shy of 40 points too exorbitant. And most importantly, he’s still cheap for such a profile; you’ll be following over 25% of your cash league’s chalk.

Le’Veon Bell

David Johnson

Either option from atop the salary chart looks not only acceptable, but shrewd in its own way. Johnson makes sense as he’s probably the overall gold standard for backfield dominance (66% of rushes, 85% of targets) and explosiveness (6.77 yards per touch) woven together. As a cherry on top, he’s also the team’s preferred short-yardage weapon, giving him both a floor and a ceiling at or near the top of any given week’s pool.

But more often this week, I’ll be taking the $300 discount and slightly higher upside in Le’Veon Bell. All week, Pittsburgh reports have glowed over Bell’s conditioning and readiness to dominate the backfield. Which, of course, Bell does as very few can – even after a layoff. Last year, he debuted in Week 3 to 19 rushes and 8 targets, and there’s been no voiced concern whatsoever over his 2015 knee injury. As such a dominant receiver and volume hog, Bell always carries high and low projections like no one else. His ultimate appeal will come from his touchdown outlook, and while Bell isn’t a truly elite TD producer, he will gobble up all of the backfield work from there. All in all, a touch total below 22 would actually qualify as surprising, so Bell needs to be a cash staple in your portfolio. He’s also a great GPP play, of course, as enough DFSers will nervously hedge against rust and matchup to keep his ownership attractive.

Charles Sims

Simply put, Sims is Doug Martin when Doug Martin’s away. The Tampa Bay backfield is shallow and fixates its usage on Martin and Sims; backup Jacquizz Rodgers siphoned just five rushes and one target last week. There’s no reason to project Sims below 15-18 touches this Sunday, and while you hate to see him face Denver, Sims is too inexpensive (just $5,600) for an explosive three-down back. He’ll dominate the backfield, his PPR appeal is through the roof (a scintillating 10.44 career yards per target), and he’s the unquestioned short-yardage leader while Martin is out.

LeGarrette Blount

With the passing game in caretaker mode, Blount has been the Patriots’ offensive engine through three games. He’s the league’s leading rusher, and he’s ruling the roost near the goal line (three dark zone touchdowns through three games). Blount is always a savvy play based on New England’s potential to win big and lean on the interior ground game to ice the pace. When he’s the team’s focal point, yet costs less than the mid-tier RB2s, he’s a cash and a GPP staple.

GPP Options

Jordan Howard

I do expect Howard’s ownership to a bit high – probably in the 12-15% range – to make huge GPP noise. But he screams “4x value” at this cost, so he needs to make an appearance on most of your tournament lineups. Howard stepped in last week for ineffective (and injured) starter Jeremy Langford and looked sensational. The fifth-round rookie notched 92 scrimmage yards over just 3 quarters of play, and most importantly, he was utilized heavily in the passing game (47 yards on 6 targets). That was the chief concern over Howard’s outlook after catching just 24 balls in college, but it looks as though coordinator Dowell Loggains wants a bell cow to dominate his backfield. The team brought in plodding veteran Joique Bell this week, but that was almost certainly in response to backup Ka’deem Carey’s injury, not as a committee option.

Dwayne Washington

Theo Riddick is referred to as the Lions' starter, so he soaks up quite a bit of DFS ownership on name recognition alone. But rookie Washington has looked dynamic and efficient thus far, with per-rush rates that dwarf even Riddick’s best moments as a Lion. And he’s been talked up this week as the likely recipient of a bigger role; the Lions would obviously love to feature a real rushing talent to complement their explosive pass game. Washington remains dirt-cheap ($3,800), so 4x value is well within reach if he takes the bulk of the workload, and he’ll carry attractive ownership numbers.

Spencer Ware

Ware has seen his ownership decline markedly since a massive Week 1 crowd. It’s easy to pinpoint why – his volume outlook came into question after Week 2, and he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1. But the former is just a misperception, as Ware took 21 touches last week (78% of the team’s backfield), and the latter is a variable number that should soon tilt into the feature back’s favor. Ware has five dark zone rushes through three games, and his power back profile suggests a dam burst of sorts may be coming. And considering his absurd efficiency (7.6 yards per touch), he can make a marked GPP splash even with midlevelvolume. That’s the exact profile of back you should be targeting in tournament play.

Wide Receiver

Cash Considerations

Quincy Enunwa

A quick Enunwa primer: he’s basically Josh Gordon’s body double, he boasted a strong 13.0% touchdown rate at Nebraska from 2010-13, and he was already posting strong 2016 usage before Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker were hurt. Enunwa has drawn 8, 6, and 11 targets over the Jets’ first three games, and he’s now in line to play nearly every snap as Decker seems unlikely to suit up Sunday. (Decker has taken all but three Jets snaps thus far.) Enunwa’s early-season breakout has been eye-opening, but not particularly surprising nor fluky. He profiles as a big-time NFL receiver, and it’s nice to see him targeted as one. It was also nice to see three dark zone targets sent his way last week; his touchdown potential gives him a nice ceiling to go with a floor that’s too high for a $4,400 salary.

Terrelle Pryor

No, he won’t repeat that world-beating Week 3 performance, which boasted 4 rushes (with a touchdown) and 5 pass attempts to go with a 14-target day. Pryor’s gadget playbook likely won’t be as effective as it was fresh out of the box, and Cody Kessler will probably take a step back in terms of efficiency, as well. But Pryor’s Week 4 outlook is truly dynamic, with and a perfectly acceptable floor for his salary – he’s the unquestioned top option on the outside, and his playmaking is clearly the offensive focal point. DraftKings didn’t react much to Pryor’s eruption, pricing him below the low-floor likes of Tajae Sharpe and Steve Smith. That sets him up to all but guarantee 3x value, and he’s as likely as just about anyone to go well beyond that.

Travis Benjamin

Tyrell Williams

Pick a Charger; the Saints’ defensive ineptitude looks thoroughly matchup-proof, so we’re more likely than not to see solid-to-strong games from either starter. The Chargers could run away with this game (currently -4), but they’d likely do so on the backs of big-chunk plays. New Orleans has allowed a league-high eight completions of 30+ yards, and Philip Rivers projects by my model to throw downfield more often and efficiently than anyone this week. It’d be a little shocking for either to be held below their cash game marks. Between the two, my inclination is to lean toward Williams, who comes $1,500 cheaper and has been looked to more often in the dark zone. But Benjamin, the team’s de facto No. 1 on multiple levels of the field, brings more stable projections. Put me down for Benjamin in a cash lineup, though either look good in either format.

Cole Beasley

Beasley was outproducing Dez Bryant even before the latter went down with a knee fracture. The slot man had out-targeted Bryant in two of three games, making real PPR noise with an average line of 7 for 71 yards. Now, that’s not a trend rooted in reality; it’s skewed by the Cowboys’ conservative, small-ball offense with a rookie under center. But with Bryant out, we have to treat Beasley as the team’s clear No. 1. The combination of high target share and low play-to-play risk makes Beasley a very attractive option at any salary below $5,000 or so. At just $3,900, he’s a no-brainer.

Kevin White

White’s development in what’s essentially his rookie year hasn’t been pretty. He’s near the bottom of the league in yards-per-target efficiency, a pitiful 4.89 number that makes sense; we’ve yet to see him do anything of note down the field. But his target share has been encouraging, and it culminated in 14 targets from Brian Hoyer last Sunday. No, he didn’t do anything to earn nor maximize that load, but it happened. Perhaps Hoyer has indeed taken a shine to White – the pair tried five times to hook up on deep balls last week, in addition to a hefty diet of screens and short routes. Priced near the WR minimum, White is all but guaranteed 3x value with even two-thirds of that workload.

GPP Options

Doug Baldwin

Baldwin still has a stranglehold on Seattle targets (24.5% thus far), yet his ownership totals wouldn’t tell you that. He was often under 3% owned in large GPPs last week, even in a cherry matchup, and his 33 points turned a lot of contests. He’ll see much more exposure this week, but probably won’t exceed 7-8%. And given Darrelle Revis’ recent history, Baldwin’s outlook as the target-hogging No. 1 is sound, as is his value at just $6,100.

Emmanuel Sanders

Sanders has thoroughly usurped Demaryius Thomas in the Broncos’ dark zone hierarchy. Through three games, he’s out-targeted his teammate 6-1, by far the lion’s share of the team’s opportunity. Still, Sanders’ lack of perceived upside has kept his ownership low, and he’s blended in with a number of midlevel WR2 options. If you’re plugging in a heavy portfolio of GPP lineups, Sanders deserves a spot in 10% of them.

Jamison Crowder

Guess who leads Washington in not only target share,but also dark zone usage? It’s the diminutive Crowder, the efficient slot man whose short game is very highly valued by Kirk Cousins. Crowder doesn’t project to much yardage, and he’s not viewed as a touchdown threat, so his ownership isn’t likely to exceed 4-5%. And while the Washington pass game has underwhelmed, there should be some seriously positive progression coming. The team sits second in the league in dark zone pass attempts with nary a TD to show for it, so some sort of dam should burst soon. And surprisingly, Crowder has drawn as many looks from inside the 10 as Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garcon combined.

Tight End

Cash Considerations

Kyle Rudolph

Locked in as Sam Bradford’s No. 2 target, Rudolph costs far too little ($3,400). He’s no longer the low-volume, touchdown-dependent tease we’ve rolled our eyes at for years. Through three games, he’s averaging 8.7 targets and found the end zone twice. His Week 4 matchup is juicy, too, facing a decimated Giants defense that hasn’t defended TEs well in quite some time. Another 8-target day would put Rudolph squarely in position to reach his modest 10.2 cash-value marker.

Dennis Pitta

Pitta’s comeback is complete; through three games, he’s one target shy of Steve Smith’s team lead and carries the edge in yardage. He’s vanquished ho-hum youngsters Maxx Williams and Crockett Gillmore firmly to the bench, and in an offense with little run game to speak of, his volume outlook is plenty strong for a $3,900 salary. Last week, he reached 3x value despite an oddly low 7.0 yards per catch – rest assured, he’s fully capable of inflating his yardage with big plays (catches of 30 and 27 yards already). His salary is likely to keep climbing, so this may be the last week of strong Pitta value. Take advantage as he faces an Oakland defense that’s notorious for tight end generosity.

Greg Olsen

Of the high-salaried options, Olsen is the only one I’d even consider in cash play this week. He’s yet to draw fewer than eight targets in a game, as he’s proven himself fully insulated from Kelvin Benjamin’s big days. His matchup couldn’t be sweeter, either, as Atlanta has been gouged by tight ends thus far. They’ve allowed one to find the end zone in all three games, with strong all-around lines from Clive Walford (6-50-1) and Coby Fleener (7-109-1).

GPP Options

Cameron Brate

After an offseason packed with glowing observer reports, Brate entered 2016 mired in a Last week, we saw what the camp chatter was about: Brate and Jameis Winston are clearly a fine pairing. Brate turned 10 targets into 46 yards and two scores, operating as the clear No. 2 option in the pass game. That won’t hold true every week, but it still makes us feel good about Brate’s floor. And his small-sample dark zone resume is encouraging enough to make him a 20-25% play in GPP lineups.

Jack Doyle

We may need to face facts on Dwayne Allen. He’s a fine tight end, but it’s looking less and less likely he’ll suddenly sprout a major role in Andrew Luck’s progressions. Dating back to the start of 2015, he’s topped five targets just twice across 15 games as Luck consistently looks to his more dynamic playmakers. That includes Doyle, who’s drawn an equal target share to Allen’s but been far more efficient (9.13 yards per target and 2 touchdowns). If you’re playing the early-game slate, you want diversified exposure to the Colts, and Doyle deserves a healthy chunk himself. Still costing the TE minimum, he’s a near-lock to hit 4x value, provided he seesanother 5-6 targets.

Defense/Special Teams

Cash Considerations

Minnesota

They’ve been utterly explosive thus far, tied for the league lead with 9 takeaways and alone at the top with 15 sacks. The Giants tend to hemorrhage turnovers, a trend that could amplify with a shaky committee and running back. The Vikings are the clear cash play wherever you can afford them.

Washington

No, the Browns offense was no picnic for last week’s popular choice (Miami). But they still managed to feast on rookie passer Cody Kessler for four sacks, and things shouldn’t be quite as rosy for Cleveland this week. Washington makes for a shrewd semi-cheap play.

GPP Options

Arizona

Novice DFSers are often loath to spend up for defensives, which allows you to take advantage of low ownership totals for elite units. The Cardinals certainly fit the bill this week. The Rams offense remains a weekly target, and few capitalize quite like Arizona, who boasts nine sacks and eight takeaways through three games. This could be the week Case Keenum sees the bench.

New England

My projections don’t like them, but I see some tournament appeal. With all of the attractive D/ST options on the board, the Patriots shouldn’t see much ownership, but their shutout of Houston showed what they’re capable of.

Follow @JustinHoweFF