Throughout the 2016 DFS season, I’ll be informing you on each week’s DraftKings player pool. My game is cost efficiency: how do I maximize my $50M allotment? You won’t catch me merely telling you who the highest-scoring plays will be. That’s a silly undertaking, and it’s a battery of opinions you could find at any DFS site. What I’ll be looking into in this column is value – cost efficiency, to be specific. To do that, I’ll be utilizing a few different measures (starting in Week 3):
DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of Antonio Brown’s next 40-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.
Points per thousand (Pts/$1K) divides the player’s projected DraftKings points by $1,000 to arrive at an efficiency statement on his projection. Among these projections, a number of 3.00 or better suggests a must-play option poised to soar beyond his salary, while one landing below 1.75 or so hints at an overpriced option.
H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. This is what Footballguys’ top projectors – think David Dodds, Maurile Tremblay, etc. – utilize in crafting their plays. They know you can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:
(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000
As I mentioned, at the moment, I don’t have much 2016 data. So for these first two weeks, I’ll be basing these calls partially on Week 1 results, but largely on my offseason projections for the 2016 season.
My Week 2 DraftKings Plays
Quarterback
Cash Considerations
We’re all going to grab a piece of the Saints-Giants game, of course. With so many fantasy-happy talents on the field, the quarterbacks will be the safest cash plays, and I like Eli Manning’s value a hair better than Drew Brees’. He comes $600 cheaper, and he faces a far worse defense. The already pitiful Saints will be without rising star cornerback Delvin Breaux, and they present very little challenge even when he’s on the field. I’m a little worried about game flow – the Giants are currently -4.5 in Vegas and could But the game’s pace should be high, and I’m confident New York will be attacking through the air. Even an easy Giants win would likely happen on the back of a big Manning day.
I’m actually a little nervous about going with Brees in cash contests. The Giants have assembled a cornerback crew that’s occasionally dominant – consider that Dak Prescott threw 45 passes last week, but only one was completed for 20+ yards, and Dez Bryant was thoroughly neutralized. While the Saints should score just fine, I’m not confident Brees will hit value quite as easily as a few other guys.
GPP Options
If you’re nervous for any reason over Saints-Giants, or if you simply want to play contrarian in a tournament, look toward Blake Bortles. His matchup with the Chargers just reeks of scoring opportunity – the Jaguars run game is ineffective, while the opposing defense just allowed Alex Smith & Co. to storm back with a 24-point second half. San Diego’s defensive issues simply haven’t been fixed. And with Keenan Allen on the shelf, I fully expect a tight game that has Bortles throwing semi-effectively for four quarters. Throwing, of course, to a trio of true weekly touchdown threats. Bortles will probably lead my slate of GPP quarterback exposure, and he’s not a bad cash option either. Anything below 3x value would surprise me a bit.
Trevor Siemian is not an impressive prospect, but he’s a fine bet to hold GPP value this week. Costing a mere $5,200, he’s underpriced for a QB set to take on the Colts’ deficient defense. He’ll need a 9-point boost from his Week 1 scoring to hit his 4x marker, and the path to it looks very doable. He boasts talented receivers and an opportunistic defense that should hand him turnovers and short fields to work with.
Which QB: (1) tied with Brees for the Week 1 lead in passes from inside the 10, (2) faces a defense that allowed 4 completions of 20+ yards in their opener, (3) projects by my model to throw more passes than anyone in Week 2, and (4) costs just $6,000? It’s Marcus Mariota, and he could approach GPP value on volume alone. The upside (someday? maybe?) of his rushing potential makes him a fair contrarian play.
Running Back
Cash considerations
A bit down the pricing line, C.J. Anderson seems worthy of his $6,800 salary. He was one of only four Week 1 backs to score 96% or more of his team’s backfield points, and he faces a Colts defense that allowed two backs to each score 23+ in their opener. It seems made in heaven, especially considering the Vegas spread (it’s moved all the way to Broncos -6.5 by Thursday) and the Colts’ propensity to hand possessions to their opponents. I wish he came a little cheaper, but Anderson might still be the week’s best value.
Spencer Ware didn’t disappoint, and it’s actually encouraging that he excelled in such an unconventional way. He looked like a true franchise runner Sunday, and he emphatically put to bed any notion of a passing game deficiency. His matchup is semi-concerning this week, but he’ll again find himself in a paced-up matchup and apparently capable of succeeding in any game script. His even snap split with Charcandrick West notwithstanding, Ware projects beautifully and remains too cheap.
It’s hard to go wrong with the high-salaried workhorses this week; it’s just that there’s so much workhorse value up and down the price chart to contend with. Todd Gurley scares me, of course, in a bottom-of-the-barrel offense that takes on Seattle. But aside from him, I like the popular cash options. DeAngelo Williams is a clear and unquestioned workhorse sans LeVeon Bell; he’s impossible to fade and comes cheaper than he should. He had mixed efficiency in two Bengals meetings last year, but was ultra-productive in both. David Johnson also appears matchup- and situation-proof, posting a RB1 line in a game his Cardinals trailed for most of the second half. He’s the bell cow in all facets of the backfield – including short yardage, where he took 4 rushes from inside the 10-yard line – and is always worth your cash play. Lamar Miller was one of just two 100-yard Week 1 rushers, and he came by it honestly, dominating both the run (28 of 31 rushes) and the pass (4 of 6 targets) among Houston’s RBs. I don’t love his matchup, but I don’t think it matters much – the Texans seem hellbent on feeding him a Shaun Alexander-esque load of touches.
GPP Options
Devonta Freeman’s floor is very much a question with Tevin Coleman emerging, but his ceiling remains high. He’s still a voluminous option as a receiver, and he still has a stranglehold on red zone work. And he’ll be very lightly owned after his Week 1 faceplant. He doesn’t look likely to match 2015’s heights anytime soon, but he’s a fine contrarian play in 5% of your portfolio.
And, as always, we have several productive PPR specialists available cheaply. Danny Woodhead’s price point is rough for a tandem back, but he appears to be in line for more opportunity than Melvin Gordon based on team trajectory. The Chargers will find themselves in negative and neutral scripts quite often, including this week’s high-octane, low-spread matchup with Jacksonville. Still, I prefer the cheaper options and their discounts. Theo Riddick’s Week 1 rushing role might not have been a fluke; coordinator Jim Bob Cooter hinted at such an increase during the offseason. Riddick is valuable even without this kind of stake in the backfield, and his salary is buried below a host of shakier guys.
Even further down the ladder, Chris Thompson and Shaun Draughn both sit at $3,700, and both carrt 4x upside. Thompson’s Week 1 scoring may seem inflated, but he tends to draw solid snap counts in neutral matchups, and Vegas only sees a 2.5-point gap between Washington and Dallas. Draughn faces a daunting task in the Panthers defense and isn’t likely to generate much yardage, but a blowout (currently Carolina -13) would put Draughn in line for a handful of catches. For either, a line with 5-6 catches should definitely capture GPP value.
Wide Receiver
Cash Considerations
If you’re looking to chase Saints-Giants scoring – and in cash contests, you probably should be – it’s important to be shrewd about which pieces of the game are most stable. The Giants feature fewer true volume and scoring threats, making Odell Beckham Jr the safest and strongest option. He went scoreless in Week 1 while three ancillary guys found the end zone, but that’s not really the norm. Beckham led the team comfortably in targets with a studly 28%, commanding heavy attention both in and out of the red zone (two targets from inside the 10 on a crucial fourth quarter drive). With Delvin Breaux, the Saints’ only solid cornerback, on the shelf, Beckham looks primed for a huge week. He comes cheaper than Antonio Brown, and with virtually the same (awesome) floor.
I’m on board with the Saints, too, though the Giants boast semi-shutdown cornerbacks at all three starting spots. Still, Brandin Cooks made mincemeat out of former Pro Football Focus All-Pro Sean Smith last week, as a reminder that the New Orleans pass game is relatively matchup-proof. They’ll always throw enough to create cash-game opportunity, so the key is finding value. Cooks is pricey and likely won’t catch a 98-yarder this week, so Willie Snead looks like the best cash option. He’s too cheap ($5,800) and deeply entrenched in the gameplan, and it was nice to see a 1-yard touchdown pass drawn up for him last week.
I’d say I prefer Julio Jones to Antonio Brown this week. Brown is never a full-on fade, though he now carries his highest salary ever ($9,900) and faces a Bengals defense that kept him somewhat in check in three meetings last year (16.7, 15.7, and 21.9 points). Jones, on the other hand, takes on a Raiders secondary with shaky safety play and cornerbacks that were simply embarrassed last week. Sean Smith’s benching in his first game as a Raider could be a nasty omen that this defense is still in flux and very targetable. Jones was largely a decoy in Week 1, but it seems unlikely that that is what the Falcons have in mind going forward.
But all told, I prefer A.J. Green as the week’s top cash target. If Week 1 is any indication, Green will absolutely dominate the Bengals’ receiving volume – even when Tyler Eifert returns. The fact that he racked up 39 DraftKings points on a day in which Andy Dalton didn’t throw a single pass from inside the 10 bodes well for Green as a top-tier weekly option. Against Darrelle Revis, Green got loose for three catches of 20+ yards; altogether, he caught 10-of-10 targets for 152 yards and a score against the future Hall-of-Famer. I shudder to think of what’s in store for the Steelers’ anemic pass rush and shaky secondary. Green averaged 7 catches for 107 yards over last year’s three Steelers games, finding the end zone in each one. Like Beckham, Green offers a floor and ceiling at or near that of Brown, but with a sexy price tag.
GPP Options
I certainly hope Allen Robinson’s disappointing Week 1 line scares away a hefty chunk of DFSers. I’m taking note of his 15 targets – more than anyone in football last week – and what looks to be a high-paced matchup with the Chargers. With the week’s buzz focused on Saints-Giants and Antonio Brown, I’m rostering Robinson in more than one tournament with the expectation that he’ll see low ownership and high GPP impact. Few receivers in football boast Robinson’s upside in yardage efficiency or touchdown outlook on week-to-week basis. His numbers will come, and they’ll come in bunches; this looks like the week to really cash in.
Will Fuller remains extremely cheap, costing just $4,200 after his Week 1 blowup. I’ll be taking advantage in most of my GPP lineups; that performance didn’t feel particularly fluky. Fuller out-targeted DeAndre Hopkins 11-8, and while that won’t continue, Fuller still looks like a huge part of the offense. More than a mere clear-out threat, he was targeted three times on short or screen routes, converting them into 53 yards and a score. He’s a multi-faceted weapon who won’t erupt every week, but it makes all the sense in the world to chase this value in a chunk of your GPPs.
Tyler Lockett posted a true dud in Week 1, but it’s reassuring that the targets (8) were there. Lockett lost the snap battle to Jermaine Kearse, but offers more to the offense and should narrow that disparity more with each week. Seattle should look much better going forward than that game suggests, and Lockett’s salary has dipped markedly. It costs just $4,600 to chase his all-over-the-field potential against a defense that was just taken to the woodshed by a Chip Kelly and Blaine Gabbert creation.
If you’re looking for cheap exposure to the Saints-Giants matchup, Michael Thomas is a shrewd way to get it. He was overshadowed in Week 1, of course, by Cooks’ and Snead’s huge games, but still drew 6 targets and caught every one. If he can find the end zone this week, he’ll almost surely hit his 16 needed points.
I’m no Travis Benjamin fan, but I do suspect he’ll claim the majority of Keenan Allen’s vacated role. He won’t approach Allen’s volume totals, as he’ll share the role with a few other names. But Benjamin is the pricey free agent, and his speed and versatility suggest he’ll at least meet expectations as an underneath receiver. I expect 7-9 weekly targets to serve as his floor, and he’s always a fair bet to take one or two short throws the distance. His $4,400 salary is too cheap for a guy with such a voluminous PPR outlook.
Tight End
Cash Considerations
Greg Olsen has officially proven himself unfazed by Kelvin Benjamin’s presence. He actually averages slightly more targets and catches across his 17 career games alongside Benjamin than in the 16 without him. His strong Week 1 line was a welcomed sight, especially as Benjamin returned to the lineup with his own big oputing. Game script is a worry, as the Panthers could make quick work of the 49ers, but Olsen is still the week’s safest cash play.
It certainly looks as though Julius Thomas will be a big part of what Jacksonville does this year. His 5 Week 1 targets weren’t eye-popping, but catching all 5 for 64 yards and a touchdown was impressive in an inefficient Blake Bortles game. I think we’ll see a similar passing load in a high-projected, close-spread date with the Chargers, and Allen Robinson likely won’t see another 15 targets. Needing just 13.2 points to cash, Thomas probably only requires another 5-catch day for value.
When a coach states publicly that he’d like to get so-and-so more targets next week, I don’t always expect it to pan out. But in Tennessee, the need is real. The Titans do seek to spread the field with multiple wideouts, but Walker remains the best option on most of Marcus Mariota’s snaps. Most of the WRs are exceptionally inefficient, and I expect their wonky Week 1 target distribution to iron out shortly. It’s unlikely Walker loses the target battle to both Andre Johnson and DeMarco Murray again, and he could flourish against a Lions defense that allowed 3 touchdown passes to tight ends last week.
GPP Options
If I’m punting the position, I’m looking at dirt-cheap options (preferably red zone specialists) capable of reaching tournament value with one or two fortunate catches. A guy like Jared Cook, Jack Doyle, or Cameron Brate can deliver GPP dynamite on the back of a 2-30-1 type of line. There are always gobs of such options on the board, and I’m a big fan of Cook and his eventual fit into the Packers offense, so he’ll find his way into one or two of my lineups. He and Aaron Rodgers made beautiful music throughout the offseason, and there’s plenty of upside room for a Packers offense still shaking off rust. But I’m just as interested in Doyle, who saw the field for 56% of the Colts’ Week 1 snaps and produced two red zone scores. Many DFSers aren’t familiar with the deep, profound love Andrew Luck has for targeting his tight ends near the goal line. With Allen one of the least consistent (and most injury-riddled) receiving producers on Earth, Doyle always carries potential for a GPP-busting game. Brate is an ascending option and a fine red zone threat himself, but he carries supreme risk as part of a head-scratching four-man TE committee rotation in Tampa Bay.
Defense/Special Teams
Cash Considerations
The Cardinals are my top cash play, as I anticipate a bounceback. I trust that defensive core to tighten against Jameis Winston and a Buccaneers offense that scored in bunches last week, but didn’t spend much time in the red zone. Winston is fairly interception-prone, too. I’m also getting exposure to the Panthers, of course, who host the 49ers, but Arizona makes more salary sense.
GPP Options
Washington looks a bit underpriced; they were scorched in Week 1, but face a far friendlier offense with fewer true weapons, a slower pace, and a rookie under center. Washington boasts two shutdown-capable cornerbacks and should be good for a turnover or two in a likely tight, modest-scoring game. The Packers look like a strong contrarian play, with non-threatening Sam Bradford at quarterback for the Vikings. I’m also intrigued by the Lions, who boast Ezekial Ansah and face a still-developing Titans offense that coughed up 3 turnovers and 2 sacks in Week 1.