Setting the Stage
Jason Witten played basketball and football in high school. He was a four-year starter in football and played both linebacker and tight end at Elizabethton, Tennessee. His senior year he set a career school record with 450 tackles and was selected as a Parade All-American and the USA Today Player of the Year in Tennessee. Witten was listed by the Knoxville News-Sentinel and the Chattanooga Times Free Press as the top prospect in the state of Tennessee. He accepted a scholarship to attend the University of Tennessee.
Witten initially played defensive end, but later shifted to tight end. He only started three games as a sophomore, but led the team with 125 yards receiving in the Volunteers’ bowl game victory. He then took over as a junior, setting Tennessee tight end receiving records and leading the SEC with 39 catches for 493 yards and 5 TDs. He was consensus All-SEC and named Academic All-SEC. Following his junior season, Witten decided to enter the NFL Draft.
Witten was invited to attend the NFL Combine, but did not differentiate himself from other tight end prospects. He was the fifth tight end selected in the 2003 NFL Draft, behind Dallas Clark (24th), Bennie Joppru (41st), L.J. Smith (61st) and Teyo Johnson (63rd). Witten was drafted in the 3rd round and 69th overall by the Dallas Cowboys and has outlasted and out produced all tight ends from the 2003 draft. His latest contract was signed in September 2011for $37 million over 5-years. He will be paid $5.1 million this season, with increasing amounts over the next two years.
Witten ranks 2nd among all NFL tight ends, trailing only Tony Gonzalez, in both receptions and receiving yards, and Gonzalez played 270 career games while Witten has played only 191 games. Witten has been named to ten Pro-Bowls and has made 1st team All-Pro twice. He is the Dallas Cowboys’ all time career leader with 943 receptions and 2nd all time in receiving yards with 10,502 yards, 1,402 less than Michael Irvin. Since 2007, Tony Romo’s second year to start for the Cowboys, Witten has ranked either first or second on the team in receptions.
Career Production
Witten holds the NFL record for tight end receptions in a season with 110 and also the NFL record for receptions in a game by a tight end with 18. In addition to his outstanding play on the field, he has been awarded the Walter Payton Man of the Year award in 2012 and the NFL Iron Man Award in 2009. His career production is provided in the table below.
Year | Games | Targets | Rec | Yards | ypc | TDs |
2003 | 15 | 49 | 35 | 347 | 9.9 | 1 |
2004 | 16 | 120 | 87 | 980 | 11.3 | 6 |
2005 | 16 | 89 | 66 | 757 | 11.5 | 6 |
2006 | 16 | 93 | 64 | 754 | 11.8 | 1 |
2007 | 16 | 141 | 96 | 1,145 | 11.9 | 7 |
2008 | 16 | 121 | 81 | 952 | 11.8 | 4 |
2009 | 16 | 124 | 94 | 1,030 | 11.0 | 2 |
2010 | 16 | 128 | 94 | 1,002 | 10.7 | 9 |
2011 | 16 | 117 | 79 | 942 | 11.9 | 5 |
2012 | 16 | 147 | 110 | 1,039 | 9.4 | 3 |
2013 | 16 | 111 | 73 | 851 | 11.7 | 8 |
2014 | 16 | 90 | 64 | 703 | 11.0 | 5 |
Totals | 191 | 1,330 | 943 | 10,502 | 11.1 | 57 |
Looking Forward to 2015
The Cowboys have an amazing offensive line. A year ago, DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing with 1,845 yards, almost 500 more than second place LeVeon Bell. Murray also led the NFL in rushing attempts with 393 and only one other player topped 300. The Cowboys line for this season ranks as the NFL’s third best line according to Footballguys.com staff writer Matt Bitonti. Some may think they are even better than that. However, Murray signed with the Eagles and the Cowboys current depth chart at running back lists Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden as the top two backs. Randle has rushed the ball 105 times in his two seasons with Dallas and McFadden has averaged 148 rushing attempts per year over his seven NFL seasons. All during the off-season, any running back discussion included predictions on who the Cowboys would add. Is anyone truly expecting that the Cowboys running game can continue their dominating production this season?
A review of the Cowboys play calling over the past three seasons shows that passing attempts have decreased each season, but the dramatically different season was a year ago as rushing attempts shifted from 36% in 2012 and 2013 to almost 52% last season. In fact, the Cowboys attempted fewer passes than any season since Romo’s second as their starter. The team will most assuredly pass more often this season than a year ago. The table below provides the offensive plays for each of the past three seasons.
Year | Passes | % Passes | Rushes | % Rushes | Total Plays |
2014 | 476 | 48.32% | 509 | 51.68% | 985 |
2013 | 586 | 63.56% | 336 | 36.44% | 922 |
2012 | 658 | 64.96% | 355 | 35.04% | 1,013 |
Totals | 1,720 | 58.90% | 1,200 | 41.10% | 2,920 |
Similar to the decreased passing attempts, Witten had his fewest targets since 2005, the year before Romo emerged as the team’s starting quarterback. Yet, he still caught 71.1% of those targets, slightly above his career 70.9% average. Witten enters this season at the age of 33, but Antonio Gates caught 77 passes for 872 yards at that age in 2013 and Tony Gonzalez has even better production at the ages of 36 and 37. Witten is certainly capable of similar production and a top five fantasy finish in 2015.
Positives
- Tony Romo and Witten have great chemistry and rely on each other at critical times
- Witten is a cagey veteran that remains able to get separation
- He is a tough competitor who has played in every game since he missed one game in his 2003 rookie season
- The offensive line allows Romo time to find the open receiver, he was sacked 30 times a year ago, tied for 9th least in the NFL
- The Cowboys passing game should have more opportunities in 2015 due to the loss of DeMarco Murray
Negatives
- Witten enters this season at 33 years of age and has already lost a little quickness
- The Cowboys could continue to rely heavily on the running game if Randle or McFadden can be productive behind the outstanding blocking provided by their offensive line
Projections
Name | Games | Rec | Yards | ypc | TDs |
David Dodds | 16 | 64 | 723 | 11.3 | 5 |
Bob Henry | 16 | 64 | 710 | 11.1 | 5 |
Jason Wood | 16 | 73 | 752 | 10.3 | 5 |
Maurile Tremblay | 16 | 66 | 726 | 11.0 | 6 |
Stephen Holloway | 16 | 75 | 840 | 11.2 | 6 |
Final Thoughts
Witten finished as TE10 last year, his lowest rank since 2006 and the Cowboys only attempted 476 passes, ranking the team 31st in the NFL. His current ADP is TE10 (115 overall) in non-ppr scoring and TE11 (116) overall in ppr scoring. The chances that the team’s passing attempts as well as Witten’s targets rise are extremely good and picking him up in the 11th round screams value.
Other Viewpoints
Dallas Cowboys blog by Jon Machota:
Machota interviewed Witten with a focus on replacing the running game production lost when DeMarco Murray signed with Philadelphia. However, most of the responses stressed his evaluation of the right way for everyone, including himself to approach their job. “Every year, you know there are going to be changes,” Witten said during his youth football ProCamp at Liberty Christian School in Argyle. “We had success and DeMarco hit free agency and you hate to see a guy like that go just because he did everything the right way. He worked the right way, he came up in the system and obviously had a phenomenal season last year.
“But I think every year there’s challenges. This year it’s no different with contract issues or signing free agents and all that goes into it. I think Coach Garrett has done a good job and our job is to say, ‘Hey, last year is over with. We’ve got to go prove it again.’ And I think that’s what we’re focused on doing right now. It our job, it’s my job and Tony’s and some of the other leaders is to create a way that that’s how we go to work. Last year was good, but we’re trying to be better than that.”
Around the NFL writer Kevin Patra – “Jason Witten: Romo and I can play 4-5 more seasons:”
There is no question that the ground-and-pound style the Cowboys employed with Murray last year helped Romo to his best season in years. Speaking on Sunday, 33-year-old tight end Jason Witten was asked whether he and Romo have another four or five seasons together in Dallas. "If we do it like last year we can," Witten responded, per the Dallas Morning News' Jon Machota. Romo's efficiency was at its best in 2014 when the Cowboys relied on Murray and a road grading offensive line. After improving the offensive line even further this offseason, the Cowboys appear poised to replicate that game plan in 2015.
Footballguys.com staffer Andy Hicks in his player comments:
Jason Witten showed he still had something left in the tank despite being in his 12th season. As an aging veteran though he did post far too many 1 or 2 catch games for his owners liking, 5 in total. His upside at this current draft slot is therefore limited, but with the Cowboys allowing Murray to leave there is the potential for the passing game to once again dominate in Dallas. While it’s unlikely he’ll return to his 2012 target numbers of 147, we should see an increase on his 90 from 2014. His lowest number since 2005. What he does with those increased targets is up to what his body is capable of.