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Setting the Stage
Julio Jones was born in Foley, Alabama and played football for Foley High School. He was an outstanding wide receiver for three seasons, totaling 194 receptions for 3,287 yards and 43 TDs. He also rushed for 3 TDs and scored another 6 TDs on special team plays. He received abundant awards for his high school play and was rated as a five-star recruit ranked as the #2 player nationally at ESPN and #4 at Rivals and the top wide receiver by both. He was measured at 6-foot 4 and weighed 215 pounds and ran a 4.45 40-yard dash.
He was very highly recruited and took visits to Oklahoma, Florida, Florida State, and Alabama before finally deciding to stay in-state and play for the Crimson Tide. He continued to excel at Alabama, where he was the first true freshman wide receiver to start in the season opener, catching 4 passes for 28 yards and a TD. He started all 40 games of his three-year career, totaling 179 receptions for 2,653 yards and 15 TDs. He also rushed for 139 yards, including 135 yards as a junior on only 8 carries.
Jones excelled again at the 2011 NFL Combine, where he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash on a 6-foot 3 frame weighing 220, and had a 38 ½” vertical. He was the second wide receiver drafted, taken at #6 by the Atlanta Falcons who traded a massive 5 draft picks to Cleveland to move up for Jones. He signed a four-year contract for $16.2 Million, all guaranteed.
He played well for the team as a rookie, but did not catch his first TD pass until his sixth game, which was in week 9 against Indianapolis, when he caught 3 passes for 131 yards and 2 TDs. He finally displayed the widely anticipated domination over the final four weeks of the season catching 6 TD passes and totaling 20 receptions for 393 yards. Jones completed his season catching the third most passes among rookies with 54 in 13 games, behind only A.J. Green (65 in 15 games) and Greg Little with 61 in 16 games. Jones led all rookies with 8 TDs and finished second in yards with 959, behind only Green with 1,057.
Jones built on his outstanding rookie year in 2012, catching 79 passes for 1,198 yards and scoring 10 TDs and played in all 16 games. An unusual aspect of Jones’ 2012 season was the disparity of his production on away compared to home games. Jones caught 17 more passes for 308 more yard and 6 more TDs on the road. He led all Falcon receivers in TDs, but trauked both Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White in receptions and also trailed White in receiving yards.
Jones dominated from the season opener in 2013, but suffered another broken foot in the Monday Night game against the Jets and went on IR, ending his season. For those five games, he averaged 10 targets, 7 receptions, 97 yards, and scored 2 TDs.
His career statistics are provided below.
Year | Games | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Targets | Receptions | Yards | ypc | TDs |
2011 | 13 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 102 | 54 | 959 | 17.8 | 8 |
2012 | 16 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 138 | 79 | 1,198 | 15.2 | 10 |
2013 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 59 | 41 | 580 | 14.1 | 2 |
Totals | 34 | 13 | 93 | 0 | 299 | 174 | 2,737 | 15.7 | 20 |
Looking Forward to 2014
The Falcons drafted RT Jake Matthews (6th overall) and signed RG Jon Asamoah and are hopeful that their offensive line play will be greatly improved over last season’s dismal performance.
Tony Gonzalez, one of the NFL’s greatest all-time tight ends retired after last season. Gonzalez averaged 124 targets, 82 receptions, 837 yards and 7 TDs for his five seasons with the Falcons. Levine Toilolo is expected to attempt to fill the gaping hole at the tight end position, but he will likely not see even half as many targets as Gonzalez had. Expect those targets to be shared among the wide receivers.
Matt Ryan returns for his seventh season as the Falcons’ starting quarterback. He has improved steadily over his career, but took a step back last year, with the poor offensive line play and the wide receiver injuries, in passing yards, ypa, and passing TDs. Expect improvements for Ryan and the Falcons’ passing game in 2014, led by Julio Jones and Roddy White.
Positives
- Julio Jones dominated in the five games that he played in 2013
- Jones is one of the most dynamic and gifted wide receivers in the NFL
- Additional targets available with the retirement of Tony Gonzalez
- The Falcons defense finished tied for 27th in yardage given up last year and may not be improved leading to a need to pass early and often
Negatives
- Repeated foot injuries force consideration of his durability
- Poor offensive line play could impact Ryan’s comfort and his ability to target Jones often on deep passes
Projections
Name | Games | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
Dodds | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 87 | 1,227 | 10 |
Henry |
15 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 90 | 1,300 | 9 |
Wood | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 1,000 | 8 |
Tremblay | 16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 89 | 1,289 | 11 |
Holloway | 16 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 87 | 1,305 | 10 |
Final Thoughts
There is no doubt that Jones can and will dominate when he is on the field, but the question as to whether he can remain on the field is valid. His current ADP of WR5, seems a little risky due to his inability to remain on the field. The Falcons will undoubtedly be passing the ball a lot and with Jones athleticism, he could be the top wide receiver in the NFL, if he can stay healthy.
Other Viewpoints
Jene Bramel “A Reassuring Outlook for Julio Jones on FootballGuys.com
Limitations aside, the study paints a very promising picture for Jones' future. Should he avoid a re-conditioning or cascade injury -- an outcome Jones is trying hard to prevent by improving the strength and balance in his leg muscles -- it's reasonable to expect him to be at full strength during the early days of training camp and in full form for opening weekend.
Kevin Putra on NFL.com
Julio Jones was already on record as confidently stating he is the best receiver in the NFL. Now he and Roddy White plan to restake their claim on best combo.
"When you step on the field, you should feel that you're the best, you and whoever your partner is," Jones told ESPN.com. "I feel like me and Roddy, we're the best when we step on the field. We take it as a challenge every year: We want to go out and show everybody we're the best one-two in the league."
Larry Hartstein on cbssports.com
The Falcons are "certain" receiver Julio Jones will "return to his old explosive self," reports ESPN.com. Jones is coming off foot surgery and is waiting for doctors to clear him to go all out.
Jones says he's running routes and feels no pain in his foot.
Andy Hicks on his FootballGuys.com player notes
Before his injury, Julio Jones was on pace for a record setting year and with the departure of Tony Gonzalez and the aging of Roddy White, Jones will be the clear number one receiver on the team. His foot injury was severe so news of his progress will need to be monitored through training camp and preseason, but until we hear bad news he should return to the top of fantasy elite receivers.