Dynasty Trade Value Chart: Week 7

Photo: Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports

 As we near the halfway point of the fantasy season, owners are starting to decide whether they are contenders for the championship or candidates to build toward 2015 and beyond. Making this determination as early as possible and acting quickly in making trades is a key to short-term and long-term fantasy success.

For contenders, it may make sense to trade some non-productive assets (rookies like Cody Latimer) for immediate contributors (veterans like Andre Johnson) that can help you win now. The starting point is often a quick inspection of the league standings. Any team sitting at 1-5 with productive veteran players at a position of need becomes a promising potential trade partner. It should be easy to devise some "win-win" trades that help you win and help the non-contender build for the future.

For a rebuilding team, trading away veterans for youth is beneficial in two ways. First, you cash in a declining asset while the value is higher than it will be next summer. It makes no sense to waste the last productive season or two of an older player when you aren't in a position to really use that production to get wins. Second, by trading away some productive players and taking a hit in 2014, you also improve your 2015 rookie draft positioning. The 2015 class looks particularly loaded at RB and landing a top 3 pick would be a big step in quickly transforming your squad from a loser into a top contender.

To this end, the trade value chart has been updated to include both 2014 value and 2015 and beyond value. Rebuilding teams should essentially ignore the 2014 portion of a player's value because that is irrelevant to your situation. In addition, this version of the dynasty trade value chart is broken down by position and lists much more than 100 players total. This should hopefully prove helpful in trying to assign trade value to some of the rookies that are often key pieces in mid-season trades for teams looking forward to 2015 and beyond.

 As always, the values listed below are based upon PPR scoring and a 12 team league with standard starting requirements (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex).

quarterback 

Should Andrew Luck be valued right alongside the elite WRs? Luck has seen as large an increase in overall trade value as anyone through the first six weeks of the season. Everyone knew Luck would be a great player but there was some question as to whether that would translate into elite statistical production in an offense that hoped to rely on power running to complement Luck's arm. Luck's third season seems to have disproved that hypothesis as Luck has put up huge statistical numbers and shows no sign of slowing down. The most exciting thing for Luck's dynasty owners is that there is little reason to think he slows down any time in the next decade as Luck looks to be establishing himself as the next Peyton Manning both on the field and as an elite fantasy commodity. It does not seem like any QB should rank as high as the elite players at the other positions due to the overall depth at QB compared to other positions. However, Luck projects to provide nearly as large a weekly advantage as do the top WRs and he is about the safest bet possible in terms of career longevity. Add it all up and Luck is a player who belongs in the first round of 2015 dynasty startup drafts as a top 10 overall player and should be valued accordingly in trades.

Why has Nick Foles fallen to QB13? Foles has struggled more than expected in the first six weeks of the 2014 season. His turnovers are way up over 2013 and he provides only minimal 2014 value as he is one of many players clustered together in a tier that serve as low end QB1 options. His value over the longer term is also a bit murky. It is questionable whether he could put up similarly impressive numbers without Chip Kelly and he has not yet secured a long-term contract extension. If you believe that Foles will eventually ink a lucrative extension to stay in Philadelphia, he presents a possible "buy low" target as his dynasty value should rise if he gets an extension (especially one with significant guaranteed money like Flacco, Stafford, Cutler, etc.).

Running Back

A quick look at the breakdown of RB value should reveal that a higher percentage of the value is derived from 2014 production than other positions. It is extremely difficult to project three or four years down the road with any RB. Injuries happen. Offensive schemes change. Offensive linemen come and go and have a huge impact on a player's productivity (see McCoy's 2014 struggles and the emergence of Murray for the impact of OL play). Due to this fact, the RBs who are most productive now are generally the guys who are most valuable from a dynasty perspective.

Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray have both made major moves up the dynasty rankings due to their massive 2014 value. These two would be the top two picks in a redraft league drafting today and will have a big say in determining the champion of quite a few 2014 dynasty leagues as well. Going forward, both have some questions in terms of their value in 2015 and beyond. However, they are both likely to be very good again next year so owners should be able to count on at least two years of strong production which is all you can really ask for. 

The most intriguing area of the RB dynasty ranks comes after the top eleven. Here, we have to rely almost entirely upon speculation in determining which young RBs are set to breakout in the next year or two. Carlos Hyde, Bishop Sankey, Branden Oliver, Isaiah Crowell and Jerick McKinnon are all prime candidates to see their value increase exponentially as we saw recently with Le'Veon Bell and Giovani Bernard. However, any or all of these players could just as easily be the next Christine Michael or Zac Stacy if their chance doesn't materialize when expected or they get their opportunity but fail to establish themselves as true lead backs. The current ranking of these rookies reflects both their upside and the risk that they never become useful fantasy players. Picking which of these players to target and which to "sell high" will make or break some fantasty rosters over the next few years. 

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones is the new #1 WR and top overall dynasty player. He moves ahead of A.J. Green in large part due to Green's injury that limits his 2014 value.  With the extent of Green's injury still somewhat unknown at this time, it is possible that his value could drop a little bit further if he is not able to be as effective as normal when he returns to the field. Long-term, Jones, Green and Bryant all have identical future values as truly elite options just entering their prime years. Jones slightly edges out Bryant due to his 2014 projected finish in the more pass-happy Falcons attack.

The top tier at WR goes eight deep. In addition to the three players already discusses, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Calvin Johnson are all included in the elite tier. Brown and Nelson are somewhat new entries into this rarified air but both have proven over the last season and a half that they now deserve elite status. In fact, Nelson is projected to be the top scoring WR for the rest of the 2014 season (value of 10 for 2014). In addition, Nelson is locked into a long-term deal to stay in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers. He should remain an elite player for the next 3-4 years. He is the oldest player amongst this elite grouping however. If feels a little strange to see Calvin Johnson all the way down in a tie for 7th, but that is where he finds himself currently. He loses a little bit of value due to his injury that is expected to hold him out of action for a couple weeks (and maybe limit his production even when he does return). Nearing 30 years old, Johnson still has a number of productive years left. However, it is fair to start discounting him just a little bit in comparison to similarly talented players like Jones who give you similar current production and project to have much higher value three or four years from now.

After the top eight, there will likely be a lot of arguments over who belongs in the next tier. This is where the especially promising young players slot in. While it may be controversial to slot rookies in as top 12 WRs only six games into their careers, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans and Sammy Watkins have all shown enough to deserve near-elite status overall. There is certainly more risk involved in trading for one of these players vs. a more proven commodity, but there is also a substantial upside for each of these guys. Each of the three looks likely to be an impact fantasy presence for a long time. Benjamin ranks at the top of the list because of his 2014 value being clearly ahead of the rest of the rookie class. 

T.Y. Hilton is also in this grouping and I expect that will be somewhat controversial. My colleague Adam Harstad recently compared him to Torrey Smith and that is a somewhat common view of Hilton. He is seen by many as a big-play or bust player in the mold of Desean Jackson and Torrey Smith. However, Hilton seems to be quietly growing into a PPR monster and not just a deep threat. His 82 catches as a sophomore were easy to discount due to the injuries to Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen that left the Colts group of pass catchers decimated. It is harder to dismiss those 82 catches in light of how Hilton has performed through Week 6 of 2014 though. Hilton already has 40 catches and is on pace for a 107 catch season with over 1,600 yards receiving despite all of the Colts other weapons remaining in good health. 

I see two reasons for Hilton not generating as much buzz as he should in terms of his dynasty ranking. First, he has only scored one touchdown and thus his fantasy production has not truly exploded despite his torrid yardage pace. Second, Hilton is an undersized WR and it seems that owners are slower to buy into the hype when it comes to a small guy. Antonio Brown is proving that to be a mistake and it looks as though Hilton is following a similar career arc. Brown was another player who did not score many TDs early in his career. His consensus dynasty ranking also lagged behind where his production indicated it should have been. Perhaps I am overrating the quick start of both Luck and Hilton in moving them way up the ranks. Time will tell. If the receptions keep coming in bunches, the touchdowns are likely to follow and it will be much harder to ignore or discount what is happening in Indianapolis.

Tight End

There is a clear top three in terms of dynasty value with Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas separating themselves from the pack. After those top three, no position is more muddled with so many players bunched so closely together. Thirteen players, from #4 to #16, are all within 4.5 points of each other in terms of value. The top current producers amongst the group like Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett are a little bit older with questionable value beyond the next three seasons. Most of the younger guys have not shown with any consistency that they can produce TE1 numbers. 

Jordan Reed's return to the Washington lineup went even better than expected and he looks to be a top option for 2014. His youth makes him an attractive option going forward. However, his long-term value is limited somewhat by his very real injury concerns. He has suffered numerous leg injuries and multiple concussions, including at least one that was quite serious. For now, Reed ranks at the top of the large field of TEs that come in after the top three, but that could quickly change with so many players valued so similarly.

The injuries have struck the TE position in a major way and it will be especially interesting to see how Tyler Eifert, Kyle Rudolph and Charles Clay are able to perform over the second half of the season. Each of these players is highly talented and has the potential to leap up the rankings. They make for inriguing trade targets for owners looking to buy low on an injured player.