The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, that is a trade offer worth strongly considering.
This pre-training camp version of the trade chart is broken up by position and into colored tiers. Within a tier, each player's value is relatively close. In the higher tiers at each position, the trade price should include a premium for the owner getting a bump up into a higher tier.
Definitions for each number:
2017- This number represents the player's expected value for the 2017 season (approximated in terms of PPG above replacement0.
Future- The player's projected value in 2018 and beyond.
Value- The player's overall dynasty trade value. This number combines both the short-term (2017) and long-term vuture value.
Tier 1- The Elite
The three-man top tier of Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell remains intact and it has basically been status quo for the group. As we get closer to the season, don’t be surprised to see Johnson’s value continue to creep up. He has 400-point potential in PPR leagues and type of massive short-term impact shouldn’t be underestimated in dynasty leagues. Le'Veon Bell may see a slight drop in value if he cannot come to a long-term deal with the Steelers. It wouldn't be a shock for him to have to test free agency next summer and possibly end up behind a weaker offensive line.
Tier 2- Potentially Elite
The second tier goes from #4 Melvin Gordon all the way down to #13 Derrick Henry. Within this tier, you can make a solid argument for basically any of these backs as belonging at the top of their tier. It comes down largely to personal preference. Melvin Gordon gets the narrow nod as top man. The Chargers added arguably the two best interior run blockers in the draft in Forrest Lamp and Dan Feeney. They also did nothing to add any real competition for Gordon in terms of touches. He should have another big year and is still young enough to feel good about his medium-term prospects as well.
The four top rookie backs are all closely bunched together in terms of overall value, but Leonard Fournette belongs at the top of the heap for now. Nearly every NFL team seemed to have him at the top of their RB draft board and Jacksonville isn’t as bad of a landing spot as some think. Cam Robinson was added in the second round and is a tough run blocker and Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone are intent on pounding the ball as much as possible. The Jaguars should have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to keep games close and feed Fournette touches. Joe Mixon has the most upside of the entire class because he is big enough to handle 300+ touches but also has receiver-like ability to really rack up the PPR points. There is certainly a bit more risk due to off-field issues and a slightly less clear path to the lead role than with some other backs. But for those willing to gamble, Mixon is the running back most likely to jump up from Tier 2 to Tier 1 in the next couple years.
Derrick Henry comes in at the bottom of this tier because DeMarco Murray is blocking his path and expected 2017 production serves as a good tie-breaker. For patient owners, Henry could pay off in a big way. Alongside Mixon, he may have the most upside of anyone in this tier when you think of what this Tennessee offense is building with a fantastic young line, Marcus Mariota and some new passing game weapons in Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor and Jonnu Smith. In general, it’s wise to focus on short-term production at the running back position and not get caught trying to look too far into the future. But Henry is the rare exception where taking the long-term view is the proper approach and for teams that aren’t true competitors in 2017, Henry is the perfect target.
Tier 3-top veterans
Valuing most of the players in this tier is difficult because the value will vary widely by dynasty team based upon how much of a contender one is. At the top of the tier, LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray are players who can anchor a RB-corp for a 2017 contender. However, due to their age and length of time in the league, you probably only want to pencil them in for one or two years of fantasy production. Adding to the difficulty of valuing these guys is that just one injury has the chance of permanently ending their true fantasy relevance (see Jamaal Charles). Older RBs with a lot of mileage are risky investments over the medium-term.
While players like Ty Montgomery, Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde don’t have the same age-related negatives, there is real risk involved in determining whether they will be able to hang onto starting roles beyond this season. Hyde and Crowell are in the final year of their deals and probably aren’t the sort of elite talents who will definitely land in lead back roles should they depart as free agents. Montgomery flashes serious upside but we don’t know if his medium-term future is as a lead back or as a change-of-pace type.
Tier 4-upside youth
These runners all have youth on their side and some legitimate upside. But unlike the young backs in tier two, the tier four backs have more serious questions about their ability to emerge as anything more than a committee back. For C.J. Prosise, Ameer Abdullah and Alvin Kamara, the questions surround their ability to handle a true RB1 workload. For Samaje Perine, it’s more of an issue of whether he will ever anything more than an early-down power back. For Kareem Hunt, Paul Perkins and Kenneth Dixon, the questions are about whether they are special enough to lock down a big role over the medium-term or whether they will get drafted over in future years.
We will likely see a few of the backs in this tier go boom (like Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi did last year) and see their values rocket up with a strong 2017. Others in this are going to see their value take a major tumble if they don’t quickly take their opportunities and run with them.
Tier 5- Useful short-term veterans
This mini-tier is full of guys who should have some short-term value, but aren’t definite difference-makers that you would want to give up serious dynasty capital to acquire. Marshawn Lynch has the most immediate upside, but he’s also a 31-year old back who is likely stuck in a two-down role. Of all the backs in this tier, he is the one who could have the most value to contenders and perhaps earn a premium in a trade deal from a team desperate at running back.
Tier 6- longer shot rookies and minimally useful vets
This tier includes a few veterans who may have another year or two of low-end RB2 value (Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, LeGarrette Blount, Danny Woodhead) and longer shot rookies who face the long odds inherent in being drafted outside the top-75 overall of the NFL (D’Onta Foreman, Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams, James Conner, Joe Williams, etc.).
Within this tier, dynasty owners should be able to find many mutually beneficial deals based upon team needs. Contenders with depth issues should target players like Frank Gore and LeGarrette Blount for short-term gain and “lottery ticket” long shots like the rookie backs (or draft picks in the late-2nd or 3rd-round range) are a fair price to pay.
Tier 1- The Elite
The top tier is smaller than it has been in recent years and contains just two players. Odell Beckham, Jr. and Mike Evans have proven to be elite-WR1s in fantasy at an extremely young age. While it’s possible we see them come back to the pack a bit in the short-term due to increased competition for targets on their own teams, they should both remain prime dynasty assets for many years to come.
Tier 2- Near Elite
Amari Cooper almost deserves his own tier. There is a decent chance that he makes the third-year leap that Mike Evans just made and establishes himself amongst the truly elite in dynasty terms. Maybe even as the top overall dynasty receiver. But we haven’t seen him put together a dominant fantasy season yet, so there is certainly more risk involved than with Beckham and Evans. Michael Thomas could also see his stock continue to blow up if he backs up his monster rookie season with a big sophomore year. If Drew Brees was a few years younger, Thomas would easily be a top-four dynasty receiver.
The bulk of this tier however consists of elite receivers who are nearing the tail end of their peak years. Players like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and A.J. Green have been major short-term assets and also retained their massive dynasty value in recent years. However, as they approach age-30, we will understandably start to see their dynasty values take some sharp falls. If you aren’t contending, it makes little sense to hold these declining assets if you aren’t in position to really make use of their 2017 fantasy production.
Tier 3- High-Upside Youth
Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins were considered elite dynasty assets at this time last year, but suffered through miserable 2016 seasons. While some of their struggles were due to factors beyond their control, they also shoulder some of the blame. How much they are able to bounce back in 2017 is tough to project.
For Sammy Watkins and Keenan Allen, the talent is not much in question. It is simply whether or not they can stay healthy long enough to emerge as elite fantasy producers. Brandin Cooks has put together three healthy, productive seasons. But it’s unclear if he will ever be an elite fantasy producer or more of a high-end WR2. As a top-five pick who landed in a nice spot, Corey Davis has huge upside and belongs in this tier even without playing a snap.
Tier 4- Top Long-Term WR2 Options
This tier is best described as players who probably aren’t going to put up dominant fantasy seasons but have a good chance of producing as high-end WR2s (with low-end WR1 upside). Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffery and Demaryius Thomas are multiple years removed from impact fantasy seasons. Each are also approaching the end of their prime years and have struggled to stay healthy.
Martavis Bryant has massive upside long-term but is locked in as the WR2 on his own team for the next few seasons and has major off-field concerns. Mike Williams is flying under the radar a bit due to his injury keeping him out of OTAs. He is a nice buy-low target now as some may be underestimating his talent and potential role in the Chargers offense. Tyreek Hill bumps up into the bottom of this tier after Jeremy Maclin was cut. It’s not just the short-term boost in targets for 2017, but what the move says about the Chiefs’ confidence in their young WR1.
Tier 5- Breakout Potential and Aging Top Options
Jordy Nelson and John Ross represent the two extremes of this tier. Nelson is a sure thing (barring injury) in the short-term. For a contender, he should have very real value. But he is a short-term bet. Ross is unlikely to have much fantasy value as a rookie. But he is a 21-year old talent with a top-10 overall draft pedigree who could eventually emerge into a long-term difference-maker.
Terrelle Pryor, Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Crabtree are in their late 20s but should be solid WR2s in the medium-term. Willie Snead and Randall Cobb are riskier WR2 bets but are slightly younger and have similar value.
Curtis Samuel is a great 2nd-round target in rookie drafts with underrated upside. He has the speed to step into the Ted Ginn role in the Panthers offense, but also could make an impact in PPR with underneath catches from the slot.
Tier 6- Second Round Rookie Value
Each receiver in this tier is worth a second-round rookie pick in trade. Day two of the 2017 NFL draft (particularly in the second and third rounds) greatly adds to the overall depth of the receiver position and makes up the bulk of this tier. Zay Jones and JuJu Smith-Schuster were second rounders, but third rounders Chris Godwin, Chad Williams and Kenny Golladay have generated more early buzz and bump up marginally from Tier 7 based upon early returns.
Tyler Lockett, Breshad Perriman, Will Fuller, Sterling Shepard, Kevin White and Laquon Treadwell are young players on whom the hype has mostly died down. But there is still time for one or more of them to emerge as impact fantasy players.
Pierre Garcon, Julian Edelman, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Jeremy Maclin and Eric Decker are victims of the extreme depth at the WR position currently. Each have value as flex or WR3 types with varying degrees of upside on a contender. The fact that players with this sort of production potential are available for so cheap shows the viability of going against the grain and building teams around elite RBs while filling in with solid WRs on the cheap.
Tier 7- Third Round Rookie Value
We have interesting dynasty names all the way down to at least WR78. Veterans like Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Ted Ginn and Mike Wallace should have short-term value while guys like Taywan Taylor, Carlos Henderson and Ardarius Stewart come with solid draft pedigrees.
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Tier 1- Elite
Andrew Luck had another strong fantasy season in 2016 despite playing through a shoulder injury. While his health is a concern, he has the best overall combination of youth, consistency and proven fantasy upside at the position. While Aaron Rodgers approaches his mid-30s, he regained his dominant form down the stretch of the 2016 season.
Tear 2- Near Elite
Cam Newton and Russell Wilson have come back to the pack a bit after subpar 2016 seasons. As they age, we could see their standing drop further as they potentially add less value with their legs. The last two drafts have provided at least three young quarterbacks (Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott) who could be long-term QB1 options.
Drew Brees and Tom Brady are the two toughest quarterbacks to accurately value because we are just guessing at how many years they can continue to defy the odds and put up elite QB1 numbers. For contenders, the two still have very real value and thus they belong in the bottom part of the near-elite tier despite their age.
Tier 3- Solid QB1
With the depth of the quarterback position, there are more than 12 players who profile as solid dynasty QB1s. Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton and Matthew Stafford have many years ahead of him and are solid starting options in the short-term.
Carson Wentz is a bit of an outlier in this tier in that he is much less of a sure thing in 2017, but with his youth and mobility, he belongs in this tier.
Tier 4- QB2 and Unproven Youth
The 2017 rookie quarterback class seemingly gets no respect from the dynasty community. But each of these three have sneaky upside in the longer-term due to their above-average athleticism.
Tyrod Taylor would be a tier higher (alongside Dalton and Stafford) if the Bills actions showed faith in him as their long-term answer at the position.
Jimmy Garoppolo is an underrated fantasy asset. New England passed up a massive haul of draft picks to hold onto him (even though they will likely have to franchise him to hold onto him in 2018). If the Patriots value him that highly, it bodes well for his future and if Brady finally looks like a 40-year old, Garoppolo could be at the controls of the Patriots high-powered offense sooner than many think.
Tier 5- Depth Quarterbacks
Depending upon the size of rosters, some of this tier should be on the waiver wire. In deeper leagues, there is reason to roster each of these passers, either as long-term bets or short-term bye week options.
DeShone Kizer is probably the most intriguing of the tier. The Browns have a lot of pieces in place on offense and plenty of picks to work with in future years. If he proves he can be the franchise quarterback, his value could shoot way up this season.
Tier 1- Elite
Rob Gronkowski has spent most of the past few seasons in a tier by himself. But his continued injury issues have brought him back to the pack a bit. Travis Kelce has been one of the very few top tight ends to play 16 games each of the past three seasons. While he doesn’t have the touchdown upside of Gronkowski, he showed he could rack up the 100-yard games in the second-half of 2016.
Tier 2- Almost Elite
Hunter Henry is a bit of a controversial player. Those that weren’t high on him last spring remain skeptical. For those who believed in him throughout the 2016 draft process, the eight touchdowns as a 21-year old rookie look like a harbinger of a very bright future. Henry has had very few injury issues and is just 22-years old. If he proves that 2016 wasn’t a fluke and continues to expand his role in the offense, he could be a top tight end for the next decade.
Tier 3- High-Upside Youth
The 2017 rookie class injected some much-needed depth and intrigue at the tight end position. David Njoku is the youngest of the trio and arguably has the best combination of size and fluidity. O.J. Howard is the freakiest size/speed combination to come out of college in many years. And Evan Engram is basically a big receiver with elite speed who is designated a tight end. Each of the three are great targets in the late-1st round of rookie drafts.
Greg Olsen obviously isn’t young, but he belongs in this tier from a value standpoint. He remains a difference-maker and has shown no signs of slowing down.
Zach Ertz and Eric Ebron have both developed into solid fantasy Res, but could have even more upside going forward. Ebron is especially intriguing. He just turned 24-years old in April and tight ends are notoriously slow developers.
Tier 4- Solid Veterans and Young Potential
Austin Hooper, Gerald Everett and Adam Shaheen are overshadowed by their more high-profile classmates who were drafted earlier (Henry also outperformed Hooper as a rookie). But the gap may not be as big as many think and each of this trio is worth the long-term investment if you can afford the roster spot.
Tier 5- Backup TEs
Austin Seferian-Jenkins is generating some hype once again as he seems to have his off-field issues in check. He is worth a stash at the very least. Still a long shot to ever be an impact fantasy player, but the talent has always been there.
George Kittle was a late-rounder in the 2017 draft, but has generated enough early OTA hype that he should be very much on the dynasty radar as a 3rd-round option in rookie drafts.