With OTAs nearly complete and the draft well in the rearview mirror, we have plenty of new information to parse through to help update our dynasty trade value chart. As per usual, each player's numerical value reflects his trade value in a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and one flex player.
Let's take a look at the trade values position-by-position. Each positional value chart is followed by some comments discussing the reasoning behind the players' rankings and the positional tiers (which are color-coded). Next to each player's name you will see the following numbers:
2016- This number reflects the player's redraft value for the upcoming season. It is based upon a combination of redraft ADP numbers and Footballguys player projections. If your team is in win-now mode, it may make more sense to value players with big 2016 values more highly.
Future- This number reflects the player's expected career value in 2017 and beyond. If in rebuild mode, it may make more sense to focus on this number vs. overall value since you are really trying to maximze the value of your roster beyond the 2016 season.
Value- The value number is simply a combination of 2016 redraft value and expected value for 2017 and beyond. It reflects the player's overall dynasty trade value and should serve as a pretty good guide to a player's worth in a trade.
|1||WR Odell Beckham Jr, NYG||10||50||60|
|2||WR Julio Jones, ATL||10||41||51|
|3||WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU||8.5||41.5||50|
|4||WR Antonio Brown, PIT||11||37||48|
|5||WR Allen Robinson, JAX||7||37||44|
|6||WR A.J. Green, CIN||8.5||31.5||40|
|7||WR Mike Evans, TB||6||34||40|
|8||WR Amari Cooper, OAK||6||34||40|
|9||WR Dez Bryant, DAL||7.5||31.5||39|
|10||WR Keenan Allen, SD||6.5||32.5||39|
|11||WR Sammy Watkins, BUF||5||33||38|
|12||WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI||6||27||33|
|13||WR Brandin Cooks, NO||5.5||24.5||30|
|14||WR Jarvis Landry, MIA||4||20||24|
|15||WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR||4||20||24|
|16||WR T.Y. Hilton, IND||4||20||24|
|17||WR Randall Cobb, GB||4||18||22|
|18||WR Kevin White, CHI||2||19||21|
|19||WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN||5||16||21|
|20||WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN||1.5||17.5||19|
|21||WR Corey Coleman, CLE||1.5||17.5||19|
|22||WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN||1||18||19|
|23||WR Josh Doctson, WAS||0.5||18.5||19|
|24||WR Donte Moncrief, IND||3||16||19|
|25||WR DeVante Parker, MIA||2||17||19|
|26||WR Jeremy Maclin, KC||3.5||11.5||15|
|27||WR Jordan Matthews, PHI||3||12||15|
|28||WR Michael Floyd, ARI||2.5||12.5||15|
|29||WR Tyler Lockett, SEA||1.5||13.5||15|
|30||WR Doug Baldwin, SEA||3||11||14|
|31||WR John Brown, ARI||2||12||14|
|32||WR Allen Hurns, JAX||2||12||14|
|33||WR Sterling Shepard, NYG||2||12||14|
|34||WR Jordy Nelson, GB||5.5||7.5||13|
|35||WR Golden Tate, DET||3||10||13|
|36||WR Eric Decker, NYJ||2.5||9.5||12|
|37||WR Breshad Perriman, BAL||0.5||10.5||11|
|38||WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ||4.5||6.5||11|
|39||WR, Michael Thomas, NO||0.5||10.5||11|
|40||WR Julian Edelman, NE||3.5||6.5||10|
|41||WR Tavon Austin, STL||2||8||10|
|42||WR Will Fuller, HOU||0.5||7.5||8|
|43||WR Marvin Jones, DET||1.5||6.5||8|
|44||WR Stefon Diggs, MIN||1||7||8|
|45||WR Phillip Dorsett, IND||0.5||7.5||8|
|46||WR Devin Funchess, CAR||0||8||8|
|47||WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN||2||5||7|
|48||WR Martavis Bryant, PIT||0||7||7|
|49||WR Tyler Boyd, CIN||0||7||7|
|50||WR Josh Gordon, CLE||0||7||7|
|51||WR Michael Crabtree, OAK||1.5||4.5||6|
|52||WR Nelson Agholor, PHI||0.5||5.5||6|
|53||WR Travis Benjamin, CLE||0.5||4.5||5|
|54||WR Sammie Coates, PIT||0.5||4.5||5|
|55||WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI||2||2||4|
|56||WR Leonte Carroo, MIA||0||4||4|
|57||WR DeSean Jackson, WAS||1||2||3|
|58||WR Willie Snead, NO||1||3||3|
|59||WR Markus Wheaton, PIT||0.5||2.5||3|
|60||WR Torrey Smith, SF||0.5||2.5||3|
|61||WR Jeff Janis, GB||0||3||3|
|62||WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE||0||3||3|
|63||WR Pharoh Cooper, STL||0||3||3|
|64||WR Braxton Miller, HOU||0||3||3|
|65||WR Davante Adams, GB||1||1||2|
|66||WR Chris Conley, KC||0||1||1|
|67||WR Jamison Crowder, WAS||0||1||1|
|68||WR Kendall Wright, TEN||0||1||1|
|69||WR Ty Montgomery, GB||0||1||1|
|70||WR Devin Smith, NYJ||0||1||1|
|71||WR Kenny Bell, TB||0||1||1|
|72||WR Steve Smith, BAL||1||0||1|
|73||WR Jaelen Strong, HOU||0||1||1|
|74||WR Chris Hogan, NE||0||1||1|
|75||WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL||0||1||1|
|76||WR Jordan Payton, CLE||0||1||1|
|77||WR Demarcus Robinson, KC||0||1||1|
|78||WR Chris Moore, BAL||0||1||1|
|79||WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN||0||1||1|
|80||WR, Moritz Böhringer MIN||0||1||1|
|81||WR Ricardo Louis,CLE||0||1||1|
|82||WR Trevor Davis, GB||0||1||1|
|83||WR Rashard Higgins, CLE||0||1||1|
|84||WR Cody Core, CIN||0||1||1|
|85||WR Mike Thomas, STL||0||1||1|
Odell Beckham stands alone in his own mini-tier. No other player can boast the same combination of youth (23) and consistently elite production. There is rarely this much consensus about who should go 1.01 in a dynasty startup.
The next tier consists of four players and the order they go off the board will vary from draft to draft. Julio Jones gets the slight nod here due to the fact that he just turned 27-years old and is coming off of an incredible 136 catch, 1,871 yard season. Antonio Brown is right there with Jones and had an equally impressive season. But it is worth noting that he turns 28-years old this summer and his numbers were actually better with Martavis Bryant in the lineup vs. without him. DeAndre Hopkins is coming off of a breakout season and does not turn 24 until this summer. While he likely will not see 192 targets again with all of the skill-position additions to the offense, he could be more efficient with those targets due to the extra attention Will Fuller's speed will bring. Allen Robinson also had a breakout season at just 22-years old. However, the massive improvements made by the Jacksonville defense could lead to a more conservative offense and hold down his numbers slightly going forward. His youth and physical skills make him deserving of a spot in the top five overall however.
It is difficult to remember a time when the top of the dynasty rankings were more loaded and the receivers ranked 6th through 11th are a great example. We have a couple of mid-career superstars in A.J. Green and Dez Bryant. Plus, a trio of ultra-talented young receivers in Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen who are locked in long-term as #1 receivers paired with top quarterbacks. Sammy Watkins has some questions at quarterback and a growing history of injuries, but is so talented that he still remains in this near-elite tier. It is a great year to draft near the turn in a startup draft as you could potentially build your team around a pair of these receivers.
The next mini-tier at receiver contains just two players: Alshon Jeffery and Brandin Cooks. One could make a case for either of them to be bumped up into the near-elite tier, but there are enough minor concerns to keep them just a notch below the above group. For Jeffery, it is an inability to stay healthy and some minor questions about his situation in both the short and long-term. For Cooks, there are two main issues are that unlike many of the guys ahead of him. First, he hasn't had a huge fantasy season yet like Allen Robinson and some of the other more highly-ranked receivers. He doesn't turn 23-years old until September, so there's a pretty good chance it's coming, which could vault him up the mid-season rankings. Second, there also has to be some concern that his production will fall off when his 37-year old quarterback starts to show his age. As we saw with Peyton Manning, that decline can come quickly and seemingly out of nowhere. Will Cooks retain elite fantasy value with Garrett Grayson throwing him the ball? All else nearly equal, give me the young stars paired with Derek Carr and Jameis Winston.
The next big tier consists primarily of proven younger receivers who look most likely to settle in as fantasy WR2s. Kelvin Benjamin, T.Y. Hilton and Randall Cobb have all put up top-15 seasons and are just entering their prime years. We also slot Kevin White in here. His pedigree as a top-ten draft choice puts him a slight bit ahead of the top incoming rookies and the other sophomores who were drafted later. Demaryius Thomas slots in at the bottom of this tier. He should have a few big seasons left, but if the Denver quarterback situation remains a mess, he could quickly fall behind Treadwell, Coleman and others in the next tier down. If you aren't a contender this season, it would be smart to move Thomas for a younger receiver in the following tier.
Perhaps the most interesting and volatile tier in all of fantasy football is the six-man tier containing the top three rookie receivers (Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson) and three mostly unproven youngsters who will all be 23-years old in 2016 (Donte Moncrief, DeVante Parker and Dorial Green-Beckham). Most likely, we will see a couple players from this group have big seasons and leap up multiple tiers. We are also likely to see at least a couple players in this tier turn into fantasy busts. The risk/reward is through the roof. Moncrief is probably the safest of the bunch. Green-Beckham is arguably the riskiest. The reports out of Tennessee OTAs aren't particularly promising and this summer may be the last chance to sell high on the ultra-talented but immature young receiver.
The next tier is massive and contains a variety of different age groups, but all are worth somewhere in the neighborhood of a mid-1st round rookie pick. There are some older receivers with fantasy WR1 upside (Jordy Nelson and Julian Edelman) alongside some unproven rookies who are going in the middle of the first round of rookie drafts (Sterling Shepard and Michael Thomas) and every age group in-between. Amongst the most interesting guys in this tier are a couple players who may prove to be late-bloomers at the NFL level. Tavon Austin put up over 900 rushing/receiving yards and scored nine times in 2015. He is still just 25-years old and might finally have a true franchise quarterback to get him the ball. He is a nice trade target this offseason. Doug Baldwin already had his mid-career breakout in 2015, but many will assume it is just a mirage. Even if his numbers regress from his torrid second-half of 2015 pace, he still can be a very valuable fantasy asset. His young teammate Tyler Lockett could push him for top billing however. When in doubt, bet on the young guys with top-notch intangibles like Lockett and Shepard.
The next tier consists of a big group of players who are currently worth a late-1st round rookie pick (including rookies like Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd). Marvin Jones and Phillip Dorsett make for nice targets this offseason. Jones has a better chance to emerge as the top dog in Detroit than most seem to think. He has a well-rounded game and could emerge as a real fantasy asset with more targets than he saw in Cincinnati. Dorsett looks to be the third-wheel in Indianapolis. But if Luck returns to his 2014 form, the Colts passing offense could be good enough to support three fantasy starters. Plus, if either of the receivers ahead of Dorsett miss time, he could have a real breakout campaign. Martavis Bryant and Josh Gordon are tough to accurately value because the upside is so high and the very real downside is that neither ever plays another snap in the NFL. If you have a strong roster and deep WR corp, it is worth trading a lower-upside bench player like Stefon Diggs for the potential reward these two offer.
The next major tier is a group of players all worth a rookie pick somewhere in the second round. Crabtree slowed down in the second half of 2015, but with a long-term deal in place to be the second receiver in Oakland should have solid WR3/Flex value over the next few seasons. Coates is perhaps the most intriguing option in this tier as he has big-time athletic ability and a real shot to win the #2 receiver job in Pittsburgh.
|1||Gurley, Todd RAM RB||8.5||33.5||42|
|2||Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB||8||33||41|
|3||Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB||8.5||32.5||41|
|4||Johnson, David ARI RB||8||24||32|
|5||Freeman, Devonta ATL RB||6||15||21|
|6||Miller, Lamar HOU RB||6||15||21|
|7||Lacy, Eddie GBP RB||4.5||10.5||15|
|8||Ingram, Mark NOS RB||4.5||10.5||15|
|9||Rawls, Thomas SEA RB||3||12||15|
|10||Hyde, Carlos SFO RB||3||12||15|
|11||Henry, Derrick TEN RB||1||12||13|
|12||Martin, Doug TBB RB||4||9||13|
|13||Peterson, Adrian MIN RB||6||7||13|
|14||Charles, Jamaal KCC RB||5||7||12|
|15||Bernard, Giovani CIN RB||1.5||7.5||9|
|16||Hill, Jeremy CIN RB||1.5||7.5||9|
|17||Johnson, Duke CLE RB||1.5||7.5||9|
|18||Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB||1||8||9|
|19||McCoy, LeSean BUF RB||3||6||9|
|20||Anderson, C.J. DEN RB||2.5||5.5||8|
|21||Lewis, Dion NEP RB||2.5||5.5||8|
|22||Murray, Latavius OAK RB||2||6||8|
|23||Abdullah, Ameer DET RB||1||7||8|
|24||Jones, Matt WAS RB||2||5||7|
|25||Gordon, Melvin SDC RB||1||6||7|
|26||Dixon, Kenneth BAL RB||0.5||6.5||7|
|27||Prosise, C.J. SEA RB||0.5||6.5||7|
|28||Langford, Jeremy CHI RB||1.5||5.5||7|
|29||Ajayi, Jay MIA RB||1.5||5.5||7|
|30||Forte, Matt NYJ RB||2.5||2.5||5|
|31||Murray, DeMarco TEN RB||2||3||5|
|32||Booker, Devontae DEN RB||0||5||5|
|33||Woodhead, Danny SDC RB||1.5||2.5||4|
|34||Sims, Charles TBB RB||0.5||3.5||4|
|35||Riddick, Theo DET RB||0.5||3.5||4|
|36||McKinnon, Jerick MIN RB||0||4||4|
|37||Mathews, Ryan PHI RB||1.5||2.5||4|
|38||Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB||0.5||3.5||4|
|39||Coleman, Tevin ATL RB||0.5||3.5||4|
|40||Allen, Javorius BAL RB||0.5||3.5||4|
|41||Washington, DeAndre OAK RB||0||3||3|
|42||Foster, Arian FA* RB||1||2||3|
|43||Perkins, Paul NYG RB||0||3||3|
|44||Howard, Jordan CHI RB||0||3||3|
|45||Drake, Kenyan MIA RB||0||3||3|
|46||Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB||1||2||3|
|47||Ivory, Chris JAC RB||0.5||2.5||3|
|48||Williams, Karlos BUF RB||0.5||2.5||3|
|49||West, Charcandrick KCC RB||0||3||3|
|50||Williams, Jonathan BUF RB||0||3||3|
|51||Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB||0||3||3|
|52||Marshall, Keith WAS RB||0||2||2|
|53||Gore, Frank IND RB||1||1||2|
|54||Forsett, Justin BAL RB||0.5||0.5||1|
|55||Jennings, Rashad NYG RB||0.5||0.5||1|
|56||Williams, DeAngelo PIT RB||0.5||0.5||1|
|57||Vereen, Shane NYG RB||0.5||0.5||1|
|58||Ervin, Tyler HOU RB||0||1||1|
|59||Thompson, Chris WAS RB||0||1||1|
|60||Ware, Spencer KCC RB||0||1||1|
|61||Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB||0||0||0|
|62||Powell, Bilal NYJ RB||0||0||0|
|63||Sproles, Darren PHI RB||0||0||0|
|64||Starks, James GBP RB||0||0||0|
|65||McFadden, Darren DAL RB||0||0||0|
|66||Spiller, C.J. NOS RB||0||0||0|
|67||Morris, Alfred DAL RB||0||0||0|
|68||Johnson, Chris ARI RB||0||0||0|
|69||Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB||0||0||0|
|70||Ferguson, Josh IND RB||0||0||0|
For the first time in many years, we have at least three young running backs with elite upside that look worthy of being drafted alongside the top young receivers. All three are very similar in value. Todd Gurley looked excellent as a rookie and could be even better almost two years removed from his torn ACL. The addition of a potential franchise quarterback in Jared Goff and talk of an increased role in the passing game is enough for me to give Gurley the nod as top dynasty back. Ezekiel Elliott hype is getting out of control, but it's still realistic that he meets the high expectations behind the Cowboys super-talented offensive line and with Dez Bryant keeping safeties out of the box. There is enough upside to make the reward worth the risk even at the cost of a first-round dynasty startup pick. Le'Veon Bell denies he missed a drug test, but there seems to be enough smoke around Bell off the field to at least knock him to the bottom of the elite tier at his position. Add in the injuries suffered each of his first three seasons and the risk/reward makes Bell an early-2nd round dynasty startup selection.
David Johnson falls just outside of the elite tier. He is a few years older (turns 25 in December) than the other top guys and does not have the same pedigree as Gurley or Elliott. He was extremely impressive down the stretch of the 2015 season however and could move into that exclusive top tier with a big season.
Lamar Miller owners were big winners in free agency. After an offense-heavy draft, the potential of the Houston offense is exciting. Miller could be the prime beneficiary behind a solid offensive line in a run-heavy offense. Tevin Coleman makes Devonta Freeman owners nervous. But Freeman's top notch pass-catching skills should allow him to remain as a top PPR back even if he does lose a few carries to Coleman.
This tier of runners is tough to value and in many ways displays the fragility of fantasy value at the running back position in today's game. We just do not know for sure yet what we have in players like Carlos Hyde, Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy. We could have long-term fantasy RB1s or we could have guys who quickly see their value crater. Balancing the risk vs. reward in this tier is tricky and will be largely dependent upon the owner's roster makeup. If betting on one talent from this tier to emerge, Hyde is the best bet. He has little competition at the position in San Francisco and Kelly's offense can produce big numbers due to the fast pace.
The early reports out of Tennessee on Derrick Henry are highly-encouraging. The presence of Demarco Murray and Tennessee's poor passing offense are a concern. But if you want to bet on talent over situation, no back being drafted outside the top ten at the position has more long-term upside than Henry. Doug Martin, Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles are getting older, but outside of the few top guys, does it really matter in dynasty? How many running backs would you actually bet on to be still starting in three years? At some point, it makes more sense to simply focus on getting strong short-term production at the position and worry about future years when the time comes.
Most teams currently employ some form of committee. Teams utilize a smaller receiving back (Giovani Bernard) and a bigger goal-line back (Jeremy Hill). The majority of players in this tier are not going to get a huge percentage of the snaps without an injury, but still have real fantasy value as RB2s with upside based upon injuries and other factors. All have proven to be talented enough to stick at the NFL level as at least solid contributors. Latavius Murray and C.J. Anderson perhaps have the best shot in this tier of emerging as RB1s in the short-term if they can hold off younger challengers (DeAndre Washington and Devontae Booker respectively).
This tier consists of unproven young players that should have an opportunity to audition for major roles going forward. Jay Ajayi, Jeremy Langford, Melvin Gordon and Matt Jones look especially likely to receive a heavy workload in 2016. Are any talented enough to emerge as long-term solutions for their teams? Or will these players be upgraded upon in future draft classes? Expect a couple of these players to excel while the rest end up being quickly forgotten.
This tier of includes many early 2nd-round rookie picks and veterans with similar value. Matt Forte should have at least one more solid season left and is a nice option for a contender looking to fill the RB2 spot temporarily without giving up any prime assets. Charles Sims and Theo Riddick are decent options to get near replacement-level RB2 PPR production at a minimal cost.
This tier includes runners that are worth mid-late 2nd-round rookie picks. DeAndre Washington is perhaps the most intriguing of the bunch. His advanced pass protection skills should get him on the field early in his career. His ability as a pass-catcher should also earn him plenty of third-down opportunities out of the backfield. If Latavius Murray was to go down with an injury, Washington could be the rare late-round pick to make an early fantasy impact.
|1||Newton, Cam CAR QB||4||14||18|
|2||Luck, Andrew IND QB||2.5||13.5||16|
|3||Wilson, Russell SEA QB||2.5||12.5||15|
|4||Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB||3||10||13|
|5||Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB||2||6||8|
|6||Bortles, Blake JAC QB||1.5||6.5||8|
|7||Winston, Jameis TBB QB||1||7||8|
|8||Mariota, Marcus TEN QB||0.5||6.5||7|
|9||Brees, Drew NOS QB||2||4||6|
|10||Carr, Derek OAK QB||1||5||6|
|11||Brady, Tom NEP QB||1.5||2.5||4|
|12||Rivers, Philip SDC QB||1||3||4|
|13||Wentz, Carson PHI QB||0||4||4|
|14||Palmer, Carson ARI QB||1.5||2.5||4|
|15||Manning, Eli NYG QB||1||2||3|
|16||Cousins, Kirk WAS QB||0.5||2.5||3|
|17||Dalton, Andy CIN QB||0.5||2.5||3|
|18||Stafford, Matthew DET QB||0.5||2.5||3|
|19||Goff, Jared RAM QB||0||3||3|
|20||Romo, Tony DAL QB||0.5||1.5||2|
|21||Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB||0||2||2|
|22||Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB||0||2||2|
|23||Ryan, Matt ATL QB||0||1||1|
|24||Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB||0||1||1|
|25||Flacco, Joe BAL QB||0||1||1|
|26||Cutler, Jay CHI QB||0||1||1|
|27||Smith, Alex KCC QB||0||1||1|
|28||Osweiler, Brock HOU QB||0||1||1|
|29||Lynch, Paxton DEN QB||0||1||1|
|30||Fitzpatrick, Ryan NYJ QB||0||1||1|
|31||Griffin, Robert CLE QB||0||1||1|
There are just four quarterbacks who carry serious fantasy value in one-quarterback leagues: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. The position is so deep that every team should have a solid option at the position. Thus, it is tough to extract any value when attempting to trade a quarterback. These four quarterbacks have enough 2016 upside that they are somewhat of an exception. Newton proved in 2015 and Luck proved in 2014 how valuable a top quarterback can be.
The second-tier has a pair of elite older quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger) and a quartet of top young quarterbacks (Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr). Brees is difficult to rank. Could he give you four more big seasons and carry your team over the medium-term? Absolutely. Could we see him fall off a cliff (like Peyton Manning) sooner than expected? Another real possibility. Three of the four young quarterbacks have young stud receivers, which is a major key for their fantasy value. Mariota will need Dorial Green-Beckham to reach his potential for Mariota to really emerge as a star. However, his rushing ability gives him a leg up on many other young quarterbacks in terms of upside.
The next tier is massive and the depth of the quarterback ranks makes it clear why there is not much of a current trade market for quarterbacks. If you own any of these top 24 quarterbacks (with the exception of the rookies), you shouldn't be too desperate to upgrade at the position. For example, there should be no panic at all over the short-to-medium term if you own Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Andy Dalton or Philip Rivers as your top passer.
|1||Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE||7||32||39|
|2||Reed, Jordan WAS TE||5||15||20|
|3||Eifert, Tyler CIN TE||3||14||17|
|4||Kelce, Travis KCC TE||3||12||15|
|5||Olsen, Greg CAR TE||3.5||6.5||10|
|6||Ertz, Zach PHI TE||2||7||9|
|7||Fleener, Coby NOS TE||2||5||7|
|8||Henry, Hunter SDC TE||0||7||7|
|9||Walker, Delanie TEN TE||2.5||4.5||7|
|10||Ebron, Eric DET TE||1||5||6|
|11||Green, Ladarius PIT TE||1.5||3.5||5|
|12||Thomas, Julius JAC TE||1||4||5|
|13||Walford, Clive OAK TE||0||5||5|
|14||Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE||0.5||3.5||4|
|15||Allen, Dwayne IND TE||0.5||3.5||4|
|16||Graham, Jimmy SEA TE||0.5||3.5||4|
|17||Barnidge, Gary CLE TE||1||2||3|
|18||Bennett, Martellus NEP TE||0.5||2.5||3|
|19||Hooper, Austin ATL TE||0||3||3|
|20||Higbee, Tyler STL TE||0||3||3|
|21||Williams, Maxx BAL TE||0||2||2|
|22||Gates, Antonio SDC TE||0.5||0.5||1|
|23||Clay, Charles BUF TE||0||1||1|
|24||Cameron, Jordan MIA TE||0||1||1|
|25||Cook, Jared GBP TE||0||1||1|
|26||Witten, Jason DAL TE||0||0||0|
|27||Miller, Zach CHI TE||0||0||0|
|28||Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE||0||0||0|
|29||Tye, Will NYG TE||0||0||0|
|30||Watson, Ben BAL TE||0||0||0|
|31||Vannett, Nick SEA TE||0||0||0|
|32||Kroft, Tyler CIN TE||0||0||0|
Rob Gronkowski is further separated from the pack at his position than any other player. In 12-team dynasty leagues, he is worth more than the second and third ranked players at his position. In six seasons, Gronkowski has scored a ridiculous .81 touchdowns per game (65 touchdowns in less than six full seasons). He is one of the few players whom you can feel good about penciling in for double-digit touchdowns every season. At just 27-years old and with such a glowing track record, the only real concern with Gronkowski is health. He has been banged up regularly and his all-out style of play lends itself to more injuries than average.
When you combine Jordan Reed's incredible 2015 second half and the big-money extension he signed this spring, you have to take his potential to become an elite dynasty asset seriously. Over his final seven games (including the playoffs), Reed put up the full-season equivalent of 112-1438-14. It's asking too much for him to keep up that torrid pace over a full season. But a monster season is possible even with some regression built in. Is it out of question for Reed to put up 90-1200-10? If he produces anywhere near that range, the 25-year old has a chance to push closer to Gronkowski's tier. The injuries are a major concern and make Reed a boom/bust proposition, but the $22M injury guarantee he received in his recent contract shows that Washington is optimistic about his chances of staying healthy. Tyler Eifert is beginning to gain an injury-prone label as well. But when finally healthy, expect him to shatter his previous highs for receptions and yardage. Alll of a sudden, Travis Kelce seems like one of the safest options at the position. Is his upside limited in Andy Reid's offense though?
Greg Olsen is a near-elite option in the short-term and could have three or four more productive seasons, but the fact he recently turned 31-years old keeps him a full tier below younger players like Eifert and Kelce. Zach Ertz looked poised to leap up near Kelce and Eifert in the near-elite tier. But the coaching change hurts his prospects (even if just due to a slower pace) marginally. Plus, his strong rapport with Sam Bradford might not be worth anything by mid-season.
This tier of players consists of options that look like they have the potential (either short-term or long-term) to finish as above-average TE1s. Few dynasty assets got a bigger bump in free agency than Coby Fleener. Drew Brees has always targeted his top tight end heavily. Hunter Henry contiunes to fly under-the-radar more than you would expect for a 21-year-old tight end drafted in the top-35 overall. While Henry could be a comptetent blocker, he was clearly drafted for his offensive upside and Philip Rivers has proven to be a very tight end-friendly quarterback. Clive Walford gets a bump into the bottom part of this tier based upon the excitement about his role in an emerging young offense in Oakland.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins is an enigma. While getting kicked out of practice is not the end of the world, the fact that he still does not understand the offense going into his third season is a major concern. It may be worth trying to get out of your investment in Seferian-Jenkins before the bottom falls out. Keep an eye on rookies Austin Hooper and Tyler Higbee. Both have the talent to make major moves up the rankings in the next few seasons.