The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, that is a trade offer worth strongly considering.
The Nuts and Bolts
The trade value numbers you see next to each player's name are a combination of projected 2016 value and future value (2017 and beyond). The calculation is based upon projected points per game minus replacement-level scoring at the position. So for example in 2015, Julio Jones averaged 23 PPG and replacement-level production at wide receiver was 12 PPG. Thus, Jones provided his owners with 11 points (23 minus 12) worth of value in 2015. The sum of Jones' projected value for 2016 and beyond is 51 points meaning he should average ~8.5 of value per season for the next ~6 seasons. For a more in-depth discussion of the method to this madness, check out the first Dynasty Trade Value Chart from two years ago.
2016 Rookie Class Values and Trade Strategy
In dynasty, it is extra important to be able to assess where the best value in the upcoming rookie draft lies before the NFL Draft actually takes place. Doing so allows a savvy owner to make trades to position himself well to target the best talents and really maximize the total value of the assets on his roster. For example, last year's Pre-Free Agency Trade Value Chart article pointed to the above-average 2015 wide receiver and running back classes and suggested placing a premium on second-round rookie picks and the first two picks overall. With David Johnson, Tyler Lockett, Duke Johnson, Jeremy Langford, Javorius Allen, Devin Funchess, etc. all coming off the board in round two, stockpiling those second rounders was indeed a wise investment as was maneuvering to position yourself in the top two for Todd Gurley or Amari Cooper.
The strategy decisions for 2016 will be equally important. 1.01 should retain it's normal value with Ezekiel Elliott profiling as a potentially elite fantasy producer. The rest of the picks in the first round are probably going to be slightly less valuable than in a normal year. We should see fewer receivers going in the first round and fewer running backs in the first two rounds of the NFL draft than we've seen in recent classes. The one strength of the 2016 class is the depth of the receiver group. Whereas the class is weaker at the top, we should see some nice value in the mid-late second and into the third round of rookie drafts. We should see -20 receivers taken in the first five rounds of of the NFL draft and a few from the class will emerge as the next Martavis Bryant, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, etc. Looking forward, the 2017 rookie crop looks weak at receiver but excellent at running back.
Thus, strategically it would be wise to move a mid-late first round pick this year for a 2017 rookie pick with the potential to land in the top five if possible. It also makes sense to attempt to move down in the 2016 rookie draft now if you can extract good value. There could be very little difference between 1.04 and 1.08 for example. If you can add multiple picks in the second and/or third round now to move down a handful of spots in the first round, that's a sound strategy and should pay off in May.
Overall, the 2016 rookie class looks to be a below-average group from a dynasty perspective. The top-end receiving talent is not on the same level as it has been in recent years. Laquon Treadwell looks to be the best bet to be an instant top-25 dynasty receiver, but none of the group profiles as an instant top-15 dynasty receiver (like Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper were). While it's possible that one or more receivers really emerge from the pack over the next two months, each of the top guys faces some legitimate questions (in terms of being elite) and the class is lacking in surefire impact prospects at the position. We might not even see a receiver come off the board in the top-20 of the April draft. At running back, the class looks more talented than the 2014 group (Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Bishop Sankey, etc.) but not nearly as strong overall as the 2015 class (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, T.J. Yeldon, David Johnson, etc.). It's an average group of runners sandwiched between the excellent 2015 group and what could be an epic 2017 RB class. It's a weak class at tight end (similar to 2015) and slightly below-average class at quarterback as well.
Specific Rookie Pick Values
1.01 (28 points)- Prior to the combine, Ezekiel Elliott stands out as the most valuable rookie. He is an explosive three-down running back that should be heavily involved in the passing game. Elliott should be viewed as a Top 5 dynasty running back today. There's even a decent argument to place him fourth, slightly ahead of Devonta Freeman. While less proven, Elliott probably has more upside and is only 21-years old. If Elliott should land in a bad spot, dissapoint at the combine or we simply see another player emerge as the top prospect, the 1.01 also gives you the option to go a different direction. Thus, the 1.01 is a more valuable asset today than Ezekiel Elliott.
1.02 (23 points)- As of today, Laquon Treadwell is probably the favorite to go second in rookie drafts. However, there are some valid concerns regarding Treadwell's speed and whether he profiles as more of a possession receiver than an elite all-around talent. It's certainly possible that we see another receiver (Corey Coleman?) emerge as the consensus top receiver over the next few months. Whether it's Treadwell, Coleman or someone else, at least one guy should emerge as an instant top-25 dynasty receiver.
1.03 (20 points)- While pegging the value of this pick at 20 right now, there's a chance that 1.03 ends up being "no-man's land" to some extent if we don't see anyone truly emerge behind Elliott and Treadwell. None of the options at 1.03 are especially appealing, though hopefully that changes over the next six weeks.
1.04 (18 points)
1.05 (16 points)
1.06 (14 points)
1.07 (12 points)
1.08 (11 points)
1.09 (10 points)
1.10 (9 points)
1.11 (8 points)
1.12 (7 points)
2.01-2.03 (6 points)
2.04-2.06 (5 points) Picks in the second to mid-third round are a great target as add-ons (or throw-ins) on bigger trades at this time of year. That's especially true with what looks to be a deep receiving class. While the point value is relatively low for a single pick, if you have the roster to space to add three or four picks in this range, odds are you will hit on at least one of the picks and end up with a valuable young dynasty starter.
2.07-2.12 (4 points)
3.01-3.06 (3 points)
3.07-3.12 (2 points)
4th round (1 point)
The Top 75 Dynasty Players
1. Odell Beckham (61)- Ranking Beckham as the top dynasty player last offseason took a bit of a leap of faith. This offseason, it's a no-brainer. We now have a 27-game sample to look at in which Beckham has scored 25 times, averaged 102 receiving yards and seven receptions per game. Beckham just turned 23-years old a few months ago, so his epic production has all come at a very young age. The history of hamstring injuries and volatile personality are minor concerns, but not enough to have any real impact on Beckham's value. A truly elite 23-year old receiver like Beckham is the rarest and most valuable commodity in the dynasty format.
2. DeAndre Hopkins (55)- Heading into his fourth season, Hopkins is only five months older than Beckham and does not turn 24-years old until June. He is coming off of a breakout season in which he produced 111 catches, 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns. While Hopkins is unlikely to see 192 targets in a season again as the Texans will almost certainly add better weapons around him, he could improve his efficiency when not the only player opposing defenses have to worry about.
3. Julio Jones (51)- Jones logged a whopping 203 targets in 2015 on his way to an incredible 136 catch, 1,871 yard season. Jones just turned 27-years old last week and should have at least four or five more elite seasons in him. He is arguably the league's most talented pass catcher and even if he doesn't quite see 200 targets in 2016, he is still going to see a massive workload and remain a PPR monster. The only slight negatives for Jones are that he has never been a prolific touchdown scorer (34 touchdowns in 65 career games) and that he has been prone to injuries over the course of his career.
4. Allen Robinson (44)- A strong case can be made for Allen Robinson as a top-3 dynasty value. He is coming off an extremely impressive sophomore season in which he scored 14 times and amassed over 1,400 receiving yards. He passes the "eye test" in precisely the way you want when investing a top startup draft pick on a player. Robinson also doesn’t turn 23-years-old until August and he is catching passes from an ascending young quarterback. There are some good reasons to be a bit more conservative in projecting Robinson going forward however. More than 1,000 of Robinson’s receiving yards and 11 of his touchdowns came when Jacksonville was trailing. Jacksonville also scored over 88% of their offensive touchdowns through the air. The lopsided, pass-heavy nature of Jacksonville’s scoring was due in part to playing from behind most games but also resulted from some peculiar red zone play-calling that de-emphasized the running game. If Jacksonville’s defense improves and the offense shows more balance in the red zone, we could see a real dip in Robinson’s production through no fault of his own. Still, even if he ends up being more of a 1,250 yard, 10-touchdown-per-season player going forward, dynasty owners should be happy with 6+ seasons of that type of production over the long-term.
5. Antonio Brown (42)- Brown put together another fantasy MVP type of season and enters 2016 as the favorite to be drafted first overall in redraft leagues. While he should have at least a few more big seasons left, it is worth noting that Brown turns 28-years old this summer and is nearing that age where we have seen player's dynasty values take a major hit. Calvin Johnson's fall from consensus top-10 dynasty player to out of the league is going to scare many owners soon as Brown starts to approach 30-years old himself. This summer is probably the last chance to get a massive trade return for Brown, but it's so tough to trade the top fantasy performer in the game.
6. Sammy Watkins (41)- In his final nine games, Watkins averaged 100 yards per game with seven touchdowns. Over the nine-game stretch, he scored over 20 PPG. For the full season, Watkins led the league (amongst the top-40 receivers) with 10.9 yards per target. The big yards-per-target number in season two was one of the primary reasons we should have been more excited about Watkins' former teammate DeAndre Hopkins at this time last year. Watkins could explode in a similar way in his third season. The primary impediment keeping Watkins from fantasy superstardom is getting enough targets. His 8.7 targets per game over the final nine games is encouraging. If he can maintain that volume of targets over a full season in 2016 and keep his yards per target up near 10.0, he has a realistic shot at putting up 1,500 receiving yards. If he gets the volume of targets that a player of his talent-level deserves, he could eventually challenge Beckham as the top dynasty player.
7. Rob Gronkowski (40)- Gronkowski is the clear top option at his position. While it seems as if Gronkowski has been in the league forever, he does not turn 27-years old until this summer. Gronkowski's lengthy injury history remains a concern and the age of Tom Brady has to factor into Gronkowski's long-term valuation somewhat as well.
8. Todd Gurley (40)- Gurley took the league by storm before cooling off a bit down the stretch. He is exceptionally talented and extremely young (does not turn 22-years old until August). A few short years ago, he would have been a lock to be drafted in the top three and probably even #1 overall in dynasty startup drafts. However, owners are especially wary of running backs right now and most want to build their teams around elite young receivers. Gurley hasn't exactly been a model of health over the past few years, so discounting his value a bit due to his position and injury history seems wise.
9. Le'Veon Bell (39)- For the second straight season, Bell looked incredible when healthy. He also ended his campaign sidelined with a knee injury for the second straight season. Bell also had foot issues that impacted his rookie season, so we're now looking at three straight seasons where Bell was banged up. Elevated injury risk seems to simply come with the territory of being a workhorse running back in today's NFL and that is the primary reason why Bell's value is slightly below that of the top young receivers. Perhaps the injuries create a buy-low opportunity for a player who has as good a chance as any other to be the most valuable fantasy producer over the next few years.
10. MIke Evans (39)- After notching 12 touchdowns on 122 targets as a rookie, Evans managed only three scores on 148 targets in 2015. Evans also struggled mightily with drops and failed to make the second year leap many expected. There is still plenty of time for the 22-year old Evans to emerge as an elite receiver, but it is also possible that he ends up as just a fantasy WR2 if he does not put in the work to correct some of the issues that held him back in his sophomore season.
11. Amari Cooper (38)- It was a tale of two seasons for Cooper. He came blazing out of the gates with three 100-yard receiving performances in his first six games. He looked like he could be on his way towards a special rookie season similar to Odell Beckham's 2014 campaign. But then the wheels came off as teams started to press him more and took away the short screen passes. Cooper also had major issues with dropped passes over the second half of the season. After the league adjusted to Cooper, it is now up to Cooper to show that he can adjust to tighter coverages and make teams pay for sitting on the short routes. The ceiling is still huge for Cooper but the poor second half of 2015 justifiably slows the hype train down a bit.
12. Keenan Allen (38)- Allen was well on his way to having a major breakout season at age 23. He had 67 catches and 725 yards before going down with a season-ending injury midway through Week 8. He was on pace to challenge Julio Jones and Antonio Brown for the league lead in receptions and likely would have cruised to at least 120 receptions on the season. Allen does turn 24-years old until April and should remain a PPR force for many years to come. Allen is going to be a target hog in San Diego with Antonio Gates on his last legs and the Chargers lacking any other real weapons at receiver.
13. A.J. Green (36)- Green's targets were down from a high of 178 in 2013 to just 132 in 2015. While Green was more efficient with those targets and put up solid WR1 numbers (86-1,297-10), the emergence of Tyler Eifert and the balanced nature of the Bengals offense knocks Green out of the elite tier of fantasy receivers. He simply can't match the production of Julio Jones and Antonio Brown if he is seeing 70 less targets. Like Brown, Green will turn 28-years old before the 2016 season and is likely to start seeing his value slide as he inches closer to 30-years old.
14. Dez Bryant (36)- Bryant injured his foot Week 1 and while he was able to rush back by Week 7, he never looked right in 2015. Tony Romo missing most of the season did not help matters. It ended up being a lost season for both Bryant and the Cowboys. Bryant should be able to bounceback in a major way in 2016 and regain his status as one of the NFL's most dominant receivers.
15. David Johnson (35)- Johnson is the obvious choice as the third most valuable dynasty back. He is on a better offense than Devonta Freeman and has more physcial ability. The upside for Johnson is huge due to his elite measurables and heavy involvement in the passing game. But he only has a handful of games with more than 11 carries on his resume, so the sample size (while encouraging) is very small. Johnson was also an older rookie (turned 24 in December) and is actually older than Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman.
16. Alshon Jeffery (35)- Jeffery was never able to remain healthy for an extended stretch during 2015. But when he did play, he showed flashes of dominance with four 100-yard games in nine outings. Jeffery just turned 26-years old and is set to hit free agency (unless the Bears decide to use the franchise tag) in March. It will be interesting to see how aggressively Chicago pushes for a long-term extension. If the Bears do not go out of their way to keep Jeffery, it will be a real red flag in terms of whether he should still be considered a blue-chip receiver in the same class as guys like A.J. Green and Dez Bryant.
17. Devonta Freeman (28)- Freeman's incredible early season stretch allowed him to easily finish as 2015's top fantasy running back. However, his production over the second half of the season was concerning. He averaged under 16 PPG over the final nine weeks. While 16 PPG is still well within the range of RB1 fantasy production, it's a far cry from the 26 PPG Freeman averaged over the first half of the season.
18. Cam Newton (28)- Newton had a huge fantasy season in 2015. He outscored the #2 fantasy quarterback by about 3 points per game and the #12 fantasy quarterback by 6 PPG. If Newton can continue to put up strong passing numbers, he should continue to produce enough on the ground to separate from the pack and provide a significant enough weekly advantage to justify this lofty ranking.
19. Andrew Luck (27)- Luck was overrated last offseason when many were touting him as a potential #1 overall startup pick. But the pendulum may be swinging too far in the opposite direction this spring after a nightmare 2015 season for Luck as his perceived value has really dipped. Luck is still an incredibly talented young player capable of stringing together a long run of impactful fantasy seasons.
20. Brandin Cooks (27)- Cooks broke out in his second season with 84 receptions for 1,138 yards and nine touchdowns. It wouldn't be a surprise at all if he is able to build on the effort and emerge as a legitimate fantasy WR1 in his third season. However, it also shouldn't be a surprise if we see Cooks' production plateau going forward. Game script was extremely favorable for Cooks in 2014 as the Saints had a historically bad defense and regularly found themselves in shootouts. With Brees now 37-years old, the Saints may not want to continute to lead the league in passing attempts every year.
21. Martavis Bryant (25) - Bryant has rare physical gifts and has proven to be a big-play threat with a career yards per reception total of 17.3. He has also found the end zone once per every ten targets. Bryant does not have a high week-to-week floor however as he is more reliant on big plays and touchdowns for his fantasy production due to his low reception totals. Bryant's drug suspension and the heightened risk of a future yearlong suspension must also be priced into his dynasty value.
22. Jarvis Landry (25)- Landry put up 17 PPG in 2015 and just turned 22-years old. On paper, he should probably be ranked as a top 12 dynasty asset. But that feels a bit too high considering the type of player he is. It took a whopping 166 targets for Landry to reach 1,157 receiving yards and four touchdowns. If DeVante Parker emerges in his second season, will Landry's targets take a hit?
23. Kelvin Benjamin (25)- Benjamin tore his ACL and missed the entire 2015 season. The Carolina Panthers offense was much better without him than it was with him as the top target in 2014. Combined with Benjamin's inefficiency as a rookie (less than 50% catch rate), there is reason to doubt that he will see 145 targets again. However, it should also be extremely encouraging for Benjamin owners to see Cam Newton almost double his passing touchdowns and legitimately turn the corner and develop into a top notch passer. If Newton can again throw for 30+ passing touchdowns, Benjamin should have a big season.
24. Tyler Eifert (25)- After essentially missing his entire sophomore campaign, Eifert emerged as one of the NFL's top young tight ends in his third NFL season. Eifert notched 13 touchdown catches in just 13 games and made spectacular catches on a regular basis. He is clearly Andy Dalton's go-to guy in the red zone and should be a double-digit touchdown producer most seasons going forward. The receptions and yardage numbers should continue to increase as well as the 25-year old tight end continues to expand his role outside of the red zone.
25. T.Y. Hilton (23)- Like the rest of the Colts offense, Hilton suffered through a disappointing 2015 season. He managed just 69 receptions on 134 targets. On the bright side, Hilton signed a big-money extension to stay with the Colts and Andrew Luck long-term. If you think Luck can recapture his 2014 form, Hilton presents a strong buy-low opportunity as everyone else is distracted by the shiny new objects like Parker, Green-Beckham, White and the incoming rookies.
26. Jordan Reed (22)- As the offseason progresses and it fully sinks in just how dominant Reed was down the stretch of the 2015 regular season (and in the playoffs), expect his dynasty ADP and value to steadily climb. In his final five games of 2015, Reed topped 9 catches, 120 yards and at least one touchdown in three separate games. Talent is not an issue for Reed. The challenge will simply be whether or not he can stay healthy and the concussions are a major concern. If he can stay on the field, Reed has a chance to challenge Gronkowski as the top fantasy tight end in 2016 and beyond.
27. Travis Kelce (22)- Slowly but surely, Andy Reid is getting Travis Kelce more involved in the passing game. Kelce topped 100 targets for the first time in 2015 and produced a solid TE1 fantasy season. The Chiefs offense still does not give much indication that Kelce will ever be a big red zone producer however.
28 DeVante Parker (22)- Parker muddled through an injury-plagued rookie season but showed some flashes of the talent that made him a top-15 pick in the 2015 draft. Over the final three games of the season, Parker produced 286 receiving yards so it is entirely predictable that he is going to generate a great deal of offseason hype. We've seen players like Parker have breakout second seasons (Alshon Jeffery for example) but we've also seen a number of these receivers vastly overvalued heading into their second seasons (Cordarrelle Patterson for example). Don't be afraid to chase upside with players like Parker, but also be aware that the bust factor for guys like this is high in dynasty and avoid the temptation to value guys at their ceiling.
29. Demaryius Thomas (21)- The 28-year old Thomas had been an elite fantasy player before seeing his production dip in 2015. But even in a down year with weak quarterback play in Denver, he was still a WR1 with almost 17 PPG. The way Thomas' season ended with just 60 yards total (on 21 targets) in three playoff games is extremely concerning however. He did not look like an elite receiver down the stretch and with all of the uncertainty at quarterback in Denver, Thomas feels like a much riskier projection going forward than his career numbers would indicate.
30. Thomas Rawls (20)- That an undrafted rookie with only seven starts under his belt can legitimately be valued as a top five running back (not counting the incoming rookies) says as much about the current status of the position as it does about Rawls himself. Rawls certainly did his part to impress however. He averaged a sparkling 5.7 yards per carry as a rookie and brought the same type of dominating phsycial presence that Marshawn Lynch did in his prime. With Lynch having announced his retirement, Rawls looks set to step in as the workhorse back in one of the NFL's better offenses.
31. Russell Wilson (20)- Wilson was a major fantasy difference-maker over the second half of the 2015 season. He seems to be transitioning from game manager to superstar quarterback the same way Tom Brady did at a similar point in his career. When you add in his ability as a runner, he profiles as a long-term above-average QB1.
32. Dorial Green-Beckham (20)- Green-Beckham is in the same boat as Parker. He showed some flashes of the talent that made him such a hot commodity last offseason, but was not a consistent producer. Inevitably there is a huge premium placed on young, upside players like Green-Beckham every offseason.
33. Kevin White (20)- White should be valued right alongside Parker and Green-Beckham. He was the highest-drafted of the trio last spring, but is flying a bit more under-the-radar due to missing the entire season with a foot injury. If you liked him as a top-three rookie pick last offseason, you should still value him similarly now.
34. Randall Cobb (20)- Cobb was bad in 2015. 829 yards on 129 targets is extremely disappointing (Cobb produced 1,287 yards on fewer targets in 2014). Was he exposed in the role of top target in the Packers offense? Did the shoulder injury suffered during the preseason hinder him more than he let on? Cobb doesn't turn 26-years old until August and it shouldn't be a surprise if he and the Packers offense bounce back in 2016 and beyond.
35. T.J. Yeldon (17)- Yeldon averaged a solid 4.1 yards per carry and three receptions per game as a rookie. He looks poised to emerge as a true three-down workhorse running back on a good young offense. For some reason, the Jaguars didn't seem to trust him in the red zone though and his path to RB1 status must include more touchdowns.
36. Josh Gordon (16)- Perhaps no other player in dynasty is such an extreme boom/bust proposition as Gordon. He not only faces major questions as to whether he can stay clean and stay in the league, but even if he is re-instated, he also has major attitude and work-ethic issues. Many forget just how lethargic and unmotivated Gordon looked upon his return after suspension in 2014. Of course, if he does put it all together, he is one of the league's elite physical talents and still only 24-years old.
37. Zach Ertz (16)- Expect Ertz to be a player who sees his value increase as the offseason progresses and the dynasty community fully digests the results of the 2015 season. Ertz's late-season emergence (35 receptions for 450 yards in the final four games) could presage a major 2016 breakout for the 25-year old tight end. Projecting Ertz's final four games over an entire season would produce 140 receptions and 1,800 yards. Clearly nobody expects that type of production, but Ertz has legitimate 90 reception and 1,000+ yard upside.
38. Jeremy Maclin (16)- Maclin had a strong first season in Kansas City and averaged over 16 PPG. Over the final six games, Maclin was a legitimate fantasy WR1 scoring more than 20 PPG. Maclin will not turn 28 until May and should have a number of strong years left. He projects as a strong WR2 going forward.
39. Carlos Hyde (16)- Hyde should be a nice fit for Kelly's spread offense after starring in a similar scheme in college. Hyde's 4.1 YPC average was not overly impressive on paper, but he flashed real talent before going down with injury and performed as well as could be expected in a terrible 49ers offense. With so many other holes to fill on both sides of the ball, the 49ers can't afford to devote more resources to the running back position. Hyde should get an opportunity to be the workhorse back in 2016.
40. Donte Moncrief (16)- Moncrief has long been a favorite of certain segments of the dynasty community due to his youth (he won't turn 23-years old until August) and impressive measurables. He emerged as the #2 receiver in Indianapolis last season. However, Moncrief managed less than 7.0 yards per target and didn't fully take advantage of his increased opportunities. The physical talents are there and the opportunity to grow along with Andrew Luck looks promising, but Moncrief is no guarantee to put it all together. He will also have to hold off Philip Dorsett for the #2 receiver job.
41. Michael Floyd (15)- After struggling with some nagging injuries, Floyd exploded over the second half of the 2015 season. He had five 100-yard receiving games over the second half of the season and emerged as arguably the top receiver in Arizona's dynamic passing offense. Floyd has struggled with inconsistency throughout his first four seasons, so it is hard to determine whether the second half success indicates a real career resurgence or whether it's just another flash in the pan. His 51 yards on 17 targets in the playoffs was a disappointing conclusion to an otherwise encouraging 2015 season.
42. Tyler Lockett (15)- Lockett was one of the most impressive receivers in the 2015 rookie class. He came on strong down the stretch of the season with five touchdowns in his final seven games. Reports of Lockett's work ethic and character are extremely encouraging and Lockett should only improve going forward.
43. Aaron Rodgers (14)- The Packers offense was a mess in 2015 and Rodgers was close to a non-factor in fantasy. While he still ranked as a low end QB1 on the season, his 19 PPG was essentially replacement level production at the quarterback position. It's tough to invest much dynasty capital in a 32-year old player coming off such a non-impactful season. But if anyone has earned the benefit of the doubt from the fantasy community, Rodgers has. The return of Jordy Nelson, better offensive line play and better health for Rodgers should lead to a bounceback season in 2016.
44. John Brown (14)- Brown looked poised to emerge as a true fantasy force but a mid-season injury slowed his progress. It also allowed Michael Floyd to re-emerge as the Cardinals' top outside receiver over the second half of the season. The Cardinals have three very talented receivers and the trio will probably alternate as the top target on a weekly basis depending upon matchups. Over the course of the season, that could lead to low-end WR2 production for Brown, but it will likely be a frustrating experience for his fantasy owners. It will be worth watching how aggressively Arizona attempts to extend Floyd's contract beyond this season as he is set to hit free agency in 2017 and his departure could be a boon for Brown's prospects.
45. Mark Ingram (14)- Ingram again suffered an injury mid-season and through five seasons has yet to manage more than 10 starts in any season. Surprisingly, Ingram emerged as a major PPR force with 50 receptions before going down in his 12th game. With his involvement in the passing game, Ingram is a solid low-end RB1 option and still just 26-years old.
46. Jordy Nelson (14)- It was glaringly obvious how badly the Packers offense missed Nelson's presence in 2015. While Nelson turns 31-years old this summer and is returning from a serious injury, he should still have a good chance to return close to full strength and resume his previous role as the Packers top option in the passing game. Contenders in search of a couple years of elite production can do a lot worse than looking to acquire Nelson.
47. Jordan Matthews (14)- Matthews had a few strong games later in the season and his full-season totals of 85 receptions, 997 yards and eight touchdowns are certainly solid. However, Matthews only topped 60-yards receiving three times in 2015 and in two of those games he saw much of his production come in garbage time. Matthews has also openly talked about how the offense running through Ertz. Matthews looks most likely to settle in as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 going forward but is still young enough that he could be develop into more than that.
48. Lamar Miller (14)- Miller's value will be highly dependent upon where he lands in free agency. He doesn't turn 25-years old until May and has often looked like a potentially elite running back despite Miami being hesitant to give him a heavy workload. It will be fascinating to see where he lands and if his new team (if he does indeed leave Miami) will use him in a more consistent manner.
49. Eddie Lacy (13)- Lacy's dynasty value has taken a major hit after he showed up to camp in 2015 overweight and strugged through a poor season. James Starks is a free agent and it will be interesting to see if the Packers bring him back as he steals receptions and red zone touches from Lacy. Lacy is still young and has shown the ability to be an RB1 when on top of his game. He is a decent buy-low candidate this offseason.
50. Giovani Bernard (13)- Bernard put up 1,202 yards from scrimmage last year sharing the backfield in Cincinnati with Jeremy Hill. Bernard had by far the best yards per carry of his career with 4.7 and showed he can be more than just a third-down/change-of-pace back. Jeremy Hill's struggles could open the door for Bernard to take on an even larger role in the Bengals backfield. Bernard is entering the final year of his contract and is likely to be a coveted free agent next spring if the Bengals cannot get an extension negotiated.
51. Doug Baldwin (13)- Baldwin is one of the more underrated players in dynasty. Over the second half of the 2015 season, he was the #2 fantasy wide receiver behind only Antonio Brown. Many will focus on his flurry of touchdowns as an outlier and that number is likely to regress. However, Baldwin also had an overall catch rate of 75% and he notched a fantastic 10+ yards per target on the season. He had an exceptional all-around season. (Note: I will discuss Baldwin more in-depth in an upcoming article.)
52. Eric Decker (13)- Very few receivers were as consistenly reliable on a week-to-week basis as Eric Decker. He notched at least 11.7 points in every single week on his way to averaging nearly 17 PPG on the season.
53. Breshad Perriman (13)- Perriman never was able to get healthy enough to see the field as a rookie. Prior to his injury, reports from camp regarding his hands were concerning. But Perriman is a huge physical talent and should earn a prominent role in the Baltimore passing game almost by default in 2016.
54. Golden Tate (13)- The Lions offense was much improved with new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. Matthew Stafford bounced back from a brutal first half to throw 19 touchdowns in the final eight games and Tate was a primary beneficiary. He scored five of his six touchdowns in the season's second half and averaged 16 PPG over the final eight. Calvin Johnson's retirement will lead to even more targets for Tate and he should be a rock-solid WR2 over the next few seasons.
55. Greg Olsen (12)- Olsen turns 31-years old soon, but has shown no signs of slowing down. He is an excellet TE1 option that provides a legitimate weekly advantage at the position.
56. Jeremy Langford (13)- The Bears have announced that Matt Forte will not be back with the team in 2016 and the starting job should fall to Langford. Langford started strong and showed promising attributes as an inside runner with the speed to make big plays. However, his 3.6 yards per carry is concerning. He also caught only 22 of his 42 targets in the passing game. The catch rate of just over 50% is incredibly poor for a running back. With much of Langford's PPR value tied to his ability as a receiver, it will be key to determine whether the poor showing as a receiver was an anomaly or indicative of a player likely to struggle in the passing game going forward.
57. Jeremy Hill (12)- Hill is an enigma. He managed just 3.6 yards per carry in 2015 after notching an impressive 5.1 YPC as a rookie in 2014. Hill does have 21 touchdowns in two seasons and is only 23-years old. Giovani Bernard is also set to become a free agent after this season and it is unclear if the Bengals will be able to afford to keep him.
58. Jamaal Charles (11)- Charles is 29-years old, coming off of another major injury and his backups (Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West) excelled in his absence. There are certainly reasons for concern. But Charles is a special back in a great system for fantasy production and his recovery seems to be ahead of schedule. Expect at least one or two more valuable fantasy seasons from Charles.
59. Doug Martin (11)- After a breakout rookie season, Martin struggled in years two and three. But he was able to bounce back with a big season in 2015, with 1,673 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. The 27-year old back is a free agent and is one of the top backs on the market. Where he lands (and his expected role) will have a big impact upon his fantasy value.
60. Adrian Peterson (10)- Though he led the league in rushing yards, Peterson started to show some signs of age later in the season (he averaged under 3.6 yards per carry in December and January). Peterson will turn 31-years old this spring and could be entering his final season with the Vikings due to his $18M cap number in 2017.
61. Allen Hurns (10)- Hurns averaged 15 PPG in his second season. He is poised to provide the Jaguars with a strong second option behind Allen Robinson over the long-term and profiles as a low-end WR2 for fantasy.
62. Melvin Gordon (10)- The 22-year old averaged a miserable 3.5 yards per carry as a rookie. But he was running behind one of the league's worst offensive lines. If the Chargers can add some talent in the trenches and stay healthy, the running game could be much improved in 2016. There is still plenty of time for Gordon to put it all together and breakout, but his rookie season was a massive disappointment.
63. Brandon Marshall (10)- Marshall had an incredible 2015 season, averaging 21 PPG and ending the season as a top-5 fantasy receiver. He turns 32-years old this spring though and is already preparing for his next career with his excellent work as an analyst. How many more years will Marshall play? When will he start to show the effects of age?
64. Julian Edelman (10)- Edelman's value in the Patriots offense was glaringly obvoius in 2015. New England was much more dangerous when Edelman was healthy. For his fantasy owners, Edelman was a WR1 (when healthy) averaging an excellent 19 PPG. Edelman turns 30-years old this offseason and his quarterback will turn 39-years old.
65. Javorius Allen (10)- Allen averaged 5.6 receptions per game over his final five games and is the favorite to be the starter in Baltimore if the Ravens don't add any serious competition in the offseason. The fantasy upside is immense for Allen in Marc Trestman's offense that uses the backs heavily in the passing game.
66. Eric Ebron (9)- The 22-year old should end up being the primary beneficiary of Calvin Johnson's retirement. His role in the offense continues to ramp up but he must show that he is capable of harnessing his athleticism and start to make plays on a consistent basis.
67. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (9)- Seferian-Jenkins suffered through another injury plagued season. He has had trouble staying healthy going back to his college days. The 23-year old showed some flashes of the impact he could have when on the field, scoring six touchdowns in just seven games. He should emerge as Jameis Winston's #2 target in the passing game.
68. Marcus Mariota (9)- Mariota impressed as a rookie despite playing behind a leaky offensive line and having a lack of talent to work with at receiver. With Tennessee talking about trying to utilize Mariota a bit more as a runner, he has as much fantasy upside as any young quarterback in the NFL.
69. Jameis Winston (9)- Winston made serious progress over the course of his rookie season and cut down drastically on his turnovers in the second half of the season. Quarterback value is at an all-time low in one-quarterback dynasty leagues due to the depth at the position, but Winston has enough long-term upside to retain solid dynasty value.
70. Blake Bortles (9)- Bortles is likely due for some regression after notching a top-5 fantasy season in his second year. The Jaguars were forced to throw early and often due to their porous defense putting them in early holes seemingly every week. Even if he does not stick in the top-5, Bortles has a loaded stable of weapons, decent rushing skills and a gunslinger mentality that should keep him in the QB1 conversation for a long time.
71. Ben Roethlisberger (9)- Roethlisberger turns 34-years old this spring. But elite quarterbacks are showing an ability to put up big passing numbers into their late 30s (See: Tom Brady and Drew Brees). Roethlisberger has arguably the best group of receiving weapons in the NFL at his disposal. He should be a top-5 quarterback for the next few seasons at least.
72. Karlos Williams (9)- Williams passed the eye test as a rookie; the 22-year old averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Unfortunately for Williams' dynasty owners, LeSean McCoy probably isn't going away any time real soon so it will take some patience to really reap any serious rewards.
73. Duke Johnson (9)- The 5'9, 206 pound Johnson impressed as a receiver in his rookie season with 61 receptions. However, he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. While it wouldn't be a complete shock if he eventually develops into a lead back, he looks more likely to remain in a part-time role as a third-down back with the smaller part of a timeshare.
74. Devin Funchess (8)- Funchess put up solid totals for a 21-year old rookie with 472 yards and five touchdowns. However, he caught only 49% of his targets and averaged just 7.5 yards per target. With Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen under contract for the next few years, Funchess will likely remain the third target (at best) in the Carolina offense.
75. Stefon Diggs (8)- Diggs came out of the gates blazing; he averaged 105 receiving yards per game in his first four games. He looked like a potential star. But over the final nine games of the season, Diggs averaged just 33 yards per game.
76. Jay Ajayi (8)- The Dolphins clearly want to keep Lamar Miller. But the Dolphins are one of only seven teams with less than $10,000,000 in cap space and have a number of key starters hitting free agency (Olivier Vernon for example) and will not be able to keep all of them. If Miller leaves, the Dolphins may give Ajayi the first crack at the lead-back role in 2016.
77. Matt Jones (8)- Similar to Ajayi, Jones is an intriguing dynasty prospect due to the possibility that he will assume the lead role in 2016. Jones started off fast but struggled over the second half of the season. Even if he gets the first crack at the starting job, there's certainly no guarantee that he can hold onto the job for multiple seasons.