The first task in assembling a winning Playoff Challenge Lineup is to understand what an optimal lineup looks like and why it is constructed in this manner. The optimal lineup incorporates both Vegas probabilities and fantasy projections to assemble a group of players most likely to score highly in this format. To borrow a gambling term, this lineup is the "chalk" and assumes that the Vegas favorites are most likely to win and that the top regular season producers for each team will be the top producers in the playoffs as well. The first half of this article is dedicated to detailing the optimal lineup and explaining the methodology used to assemble it.
The optimal (or "chalk") lineup will probably score quite well and finish in the upper half of all entries but it is probably not be the best lineup to win the Playoff Challenge. As anyone who has participated in Daily Fantasy tournaments can tell you, having some lesser owned players is a huge key in terms of increasing your odds of winning. If your roster contains a player with an ownership of 5% or less and that player has a big game (or multiple big games), your odds of taking home the top prize increase exponentially. Meanwhile, if your roster has a player that is owned by 50% of the field and he has a big game, your odds of winning it all do not go up very much as you are one of many to benefit. With that concept in mind, the second half of this article details the best strategies to indentify which under-the-radar players are most worth considering to differentiate your roster from the masses and increase your overall odds of winning the Footballguys Playoff Challenge.
The Optimal Lineup
Assembling the optimal lineup (without regard to likely ownership percentages) can be achieved by a 3-step process: (1) Calculate the expected number of games played by each team, (2) Assign the highest scoring positions to teams with the highest number of expected games, (3) Look at known and potential matchups and point per game data to determine which players on each team are likely to score the most points.
Expected Games Played per Team
Footballguys writer Danny Tuccitto has developed a formula to figure out the amount of games each team is likely to play based upon the Las Vegas sportsbook odds and the chart is posted below. So for example, the Seattle Seahawks are going to be heavy favorites in their round 2 matchup at home against Carolina, Arizona or Detroit. Based upon the probabilities and Vegas odds, they have only an 18.7% of losing that second round matchup and playing only one playoff game. Based upon the same odds and probabilities, the Seahawks have a 32.4% chance of losing in the NFC Championship game and playing exactly two playoff games. They have a 48.9% chance of making the Super Bowl and thus playing in three playoff games. Adding it all up, the Seahawks are expected to play 2.3 games (1 x .187) + (2 x .324) + (3 x .489). Due to the Super Bowl counting for double points, another .489 is added to the total for an Adjusted Expected Games ("ExpG") figure of 2.8.
| Team | P(1) | P(2) | P(3) | P(4) | ExpG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18.7% | 32.4% | 48.9% | 0.0% | 2.8 |
| NE | 29.0% | 27.1% | 43.9% | 0.0% | 2.6 |
| DEN | 32.1% | 35.5% | 32.4% | 0.0% | 2.3 |
| GB | 34.7% | 33.9% | 31.4% | 0.0% | 2.3 |
| DAL | 29.6% | 41.8% | 15.4% | 13.2% | 2.3 |
| PIT | 41.0% | 39.1% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 2.0 |
| IND | 38.2% | 46.3% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 1.9 |
| CAR | 35.0% | 53.8% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 1.8 |
| BAL | 59.0% | 24.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 1.7 |
| CIN | 61.8% | 28.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.5 |
| ARI | 65.0% | 27.8% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 1.5 |
| DET | 70.4% | 23.2% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.4 |
Assembling the Optimal Lineup
This is crucial information. In terms of putting together an optimal lineup with the highest projected point total, we want to target players from teams with the highest ExpG. For example, if you project Russell Wilson to match his 23 points per game average in the playoffs and the Seahawks to play the equivalent of 2.8 playoff games, then Wilson is projected to 64.6 points in the Playoff Challenge. Using this method, Wilson is projected to be the highest overall scorer in the Playoff Challenge by a decent margin. Russell Wilson is the best option at QB and will be the first member of our optimal lineup.
Moving on to the Patriots (the team with the 2nd highest ExpG), Rob Gronkowski at TE (averaging nearly 20 PPG) is clearly the top choice for our optimal lineup (and a good bet to be the player with highest ownership percentage in the Playoff Challenge).
The Broncos have the 3rd highest ExpG and provide multiple strong options with Demaryius Thomas and C.J. Anderson providing especially compelling cases. With the Broncos focusing heavily on the run down the stretch (Anderson was the top scoring RB from week 10-17) and the lack of other strong options at RB, C.J. Anderson is the choice for the optimal lineup.
The Packers also have multiple strong options with Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. Over the full season (and the 2nd half as well), Jordy Nelson was the highest scoring of the three and will serve as the WR1 in our optimal lineup.
The Cowboys have two incredibly strong players in Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. While the first round matchup against Detroit favors Bryant, there are a number of very strong WR options on the next few teams on our list so DeMarco Murray is the choice as the RB2 for our optimal lineup.
The injury to Le'Veon Bell leaves the Steelers with one very clear "chalk" choice in Antonio Brown as the WR2 in our optimal lineup.
With QB already filled by Wilson, Andrew Luck isn't an option for our optimal lineup (with ExpG taken into account Wilson is projected to outscore Luck by ~20 points) which leaves T.Y. Hilton as the clear choice as our first flex in our optimal lineup.
Carolina has the 8th highest ExpG and has three options to fill the final flex spot in our optimal lineup in Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. In FFPC TE-Premium scoring, Olsen outscored Benjamin by nearly 20 points over the 2nd half of the season and based upon matchups is a stronger option than Stewart. Thus, Greg Olsen is the "chalk" play for our optimal lineup.
With the top positional players projected to score in the neighborhood of 20 PPG and Defenses and Kickers projected to score closer to 10 PPG, it makes sense to pick our eight positional players from the eight teams with the highest ExpG. That leaves four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Arizona and Detroit) as the remaining options from which to choose our Defense and Kicker.
With Baltimore the clear 9th team in terms of ExpG, our optimal lineup requires either the Ravens D or Justin Tucker. With the Ravens facing one of the league's best offenses in the Steelers (and another top offense in New England on deck if the Ravens pull the upset), Justin Tucker becomes the clear choice.
Cincinnati and Arizona have identical ExpG and with the Bengals facing the explosive Colts offense (and a trip to Denver or New England on deck if they pull an upset), the Cardinals D is the top option for our Optimal Lineup.
Our Optimal Lineup:
QB- Russell Wilson
RB- C.J. Anderson, Demarco Murray
WR- Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton
TE- Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen
D- Cardinals
K- Justin Tucker
playing to win
The optimal lineup detailed above is a safe bet to score well and place somewhere in the top half of the entries. However, it is also a lineup in which nearly all of the players will have very high ownership rates and many other owners will have very similar (and possibly identical) lineups. For example, fellow Footballguys writer Jeff Pasquino came up with his own optimal lineup entirely independently of my efforts and ended up with 9 of 10 players completely identical (the only difference being he had Kelvin Benjamin as a flex instead of Greg Olsen). Clearly, very many people are going to be assembling lineups that feature most of the players listed above in our optimal lineup. It is difficult to win a large tournament like this playing a lineup consisting entirely of "chalk" picks.
Let's examine an example to illustrate how picking too many highly owned players can be a negative in a tournament setting. Let's assume for the sake of argument that 80% of the entries have Rob Gronkowski rostered and only 2% have Brandon LaFell. In this scenario, LaFell would be the better play unless you feel Gronkowski would outscore LaFell 40 out of 41 times. To put it differently, would you be interested in making a $100 bet with 40 to 1 odds ($4,000 payout) that LaFell outproduces Gronkowski in the playoffs? You should be interested in that type of proposition. Similarly, you should be looking for ways to differentiate your lineup from the masses by taking calculated risks in rostering players that are likely to have relatively lower ownership rates. If you own Rob Gronkowski and he performs well, you gain very little. If you own a lesser owned player like Brandon LaFell and he performs well, you gain a great deal.
Underdog Teams
The first way to really differentiate your roster and take a calculated risk is to pick at least one position player from a team that is not likely to be popular with other owners. For example, Detroit is the biggest underdog of Wild Card Weekend and has the lowest ExpG. Rostering a Lion is not a safe bet in terms of getting guaranteed production as the odds indicate that you are likely to only get one game for that player to make a mark. However, it is certainly not a longshot that the Lions move on and play two or more games. This tournament could be the rare scenario in which Calvin Johnson is a bit of a contrarian play with relatively low ownership. Joique Bell, Golden Tate and Matthew Stafford are even bigger contrarian plays and likely to have extremely low ownership percentages. If you like the Lions' odds of pulling off an upset, then rostering one of these four players would allow you to roster most of the players from our optimal lineup and still have a fairly unique lineup. If the Lions pull off an upset or two (or better yet, make the Super Bowl), you suddenly have positioned yourself to be a real factor in the Playoff Challenge.
Similarly, players like Jeremy Hill, Justin Forsett, Torrey Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald are all likely to have low ownership percentages but provide legitimate upside should their teams pull off a couple upsets and make deep playoff runs. If you have faith in the Bengals, Ravens or Cardinals to make a run in the playoffs then you shoud absolutely roster one of their key players. If the Ravens get hot like they did a few years ago and go on to the Super Bowl with Smith racking up 100 points and you are one of only a handful of owners that has rostered him, you are going to be very well positioned to win the Playoff Challenge.
Under the radar Players
The second primary way to increase your odds of winning it all is taking a calculated risk by picking a player from one of the prime contenders that is a bit more under the radar than their high profile teammates. We already discussed the example of Brandon LaFell above. If nearly every roster contains either Rob Gronkowski or Tom Brady, then it is likely that players like Lafell, Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen and LeGarrette Blount are going to have low ownership rates. Should one of these players have a big game (or multiple big games if the Patriots make a deep run) and outproduce their more highly owned counterparts, you can quickly and easily separate your entry from the crowd and position yourself for the big score.
Some other players that fit this mold and are potentially worth rostering include Doug Baldwin, Tony Romo, Julius Thomas, Martavis Bryant, Coby Fleener and Daniel Herron. Each of these players has multiple teammates who are likely to have very high ownership rates which leaves them as candidates to add to the uniqueness of your roster. If the Seahawks make the Super Bowl as expected but it is Doug Baldwin (not Russell Wilson or Marshawn Lynch) that racks up the most points, you would have a nice advantage over nearly the entire field if you took the chance and picked Baldwin.
Final thoughts
Make sure you understand how the scoring and format works and why the players listed above in the Optimal Lineup are projected to be the top scorers. Use this information and understanding not as a crutch but as a sword to attack the tournament field by going against the consensus a few times and grabbing a few players that most other owners will be scared to roster. As the old saying goes, "fortune favors the bold."
