Big Shoes to Fill
Josh Hill burst onto the fantasy radar on March 10th when the Saints traded star Tight End Jimmy Graham to the Seahawks in exchange for Center Max Unger and a 2015 1st round draft pick. Many expected the Saints to fill the void left by Graham's sudden departure in the early rounds of the 2015 NFL draft or in free agency, but the Saints decided not to address the tight end position in either the draft or free agency, which leaves Hill as the primary candidate to replace Graham.
Graham's departure is not the only move pointing towards an increased role for Hill. Only two of the Saints' top six in targets last year return for 2015. The departures of Graham (125), Kenny Stills (83), Pierre Thomas (55) and Travaris Cadet (51) leave New Orleans looking to replace their combined 314 targets and 231 receptions. The only new addition of note to the offense is running back C.J. Spiller. Even assuming Spiller stays healthy and plays a huge role in the Saints' offense (picking up around 100 targets), there are still at least 200 targets that will need to be distributed amongst the Saints' returning pass catchers. Brandin Cooks (69 targets in 2014) and Nick Toon (31 targets in 2014) could double their targets from last year and there would still be more than 100 targets that should mostly go towards the tight ends.
Over the past seven seasons, the Saints tight ends have averaged 156 targets per season. Certainly some of that is attributable to having a special talent at the position in Jimmy Graham. However, even before Graham arrived the Saints were amongst the league leaders in targets for the tight end position. In 2008 for example, the Saints threw the ball to their tight ends 140 times with Jeremy Shockey and Billy Miller leading the way. In 2009, it was Shockey and David Thomas leading a Saints tight end group with 125 targets. In 2010, it was again Shockey and Thomas leading the targets for a Saints tight end group that had 150 targets. Based on history, it is safe to assume that the Saints will again target their tight ends 125 or more times.
The Saints depth chart at TE heading into training camp is quite shallow and Josh Hill is the player most likely to emerge as Graham's replacement. 34-year old Ben Watson returns and should play a similar role as last season as a blocking specialist only occasionally involved in the passing game (20 receptions). Watson only produced 4.4 yards per target last year and is poorly suited for an increased role in the passing game. Behind them, Orson Charles looks ticketed for the 3rd TE role after being waived by the Bengals following a failed attempt at converting into a fullback. Undrafted rookie Jack Tabb is a potential practice squad candidate and the only other tight end on the roster. Add it all up and it becomes clear that Hill is due for a huge increase in targets and a prominent role in the Saints pass-heavy offensive attack.
A Special Athlete
Guys who are 6'5 and 250 pounds are not supposed to be able to move like this. While Hill's time on the field has been limited (293 snaps last season), he has regularly flashed the speed, agility and fluidity that make him such an intriguing breakout candidate.
It was Hill's elite athleticism that earned him a shot at the NFL despite playing his college ball for the Idaho State Vandals. Hill's excellent Pro Day performance back in 2013 placed him in the 79th Percentile or higher in every single category (compared to all TEs at the NFL Combine) and even stacks up well against Jimmy Graham's exceptional combine numbers.
Event | Hill | Percentile | Graham | Percentile |
---|---|---|---|---|
40yd | 4.66s | 79th | 4.53s | 95th |
Vert | 36.5 | 88th | 38.5 | 96th |
Broad | 127 | 97th | 120 | 88th |
20ss | 4.19s | 84th | 4.45s | 33rd |
3Cone | 7.00s | 80th | 6.9s | 90th |
Hill has also been able to show off his athleticism on the field and been able to prove he is not just a workout warrior. While the number of targets in 2014 were limited (only 20), Hill made the most of them with a 70% catch rate and an average of nearly 9 yards per target (for comparison's sake, Graham barely topped 7 yards per target). Hill also turned 25% of his targets into touchdowns (Graham scored on 8% of his targets). In short, Hill made big plays when given the chance and is the type of talent who could emerge in a big play given a heavier workload. As Drew Brees said recently, "Josh received some opportunities last year that he really made the most of and I think his role is ever increasing." Hill has the size and leaping ability to win jump balls in the red zone, the speed to stretch the seam and the explosiveness and lateral agility to make plays after the catch.
Upside, Upside, Upside
Outside of the Tight Ends being drafted in the early rounds, perhaps no player at the position can match Hill's upside. The opportunity for a heavy workload with a bevy of targets from one of the NFL's top passers is certainly present. Hill also has the athleticism to capitalize on the opportunity in front of him. The list of tight ends with (1) an elite QB throwing them the ball, (2) a pass-heavy offensive scheme and (3) high-end athletic ability is a very short one. Arguably, Rob Gronkowski is the only other tight end who has all three of those factors present. Should the stars align perfectly, Hill's fantasy upside is matched by only a few TEs in the league.
Positives
- In the three years (2008-2010) before Jimmy Graham emerged as an elite player, the Saints tight ends still averaged more than 138 targets per season. The Saints heavily targeted the tight end before Graham's arrival and are likely to continue to do so after his departure.
- With 34-year old blocking specialist Benjamin Watson and journeyman Orson Charles the only other tight ends on the roster, Hill has very little competition for the role of flex-TE that the Saints offense has featured heavily under Sean Payton.
- At 25-years old and entering his third NFL season, the athletic Hill is right at the prime age and experience level for a breakout season.
Negatives
- Even nearing age 35, Benjamin Watson remains a strong blocker and reliable receiver. In single TE sets, Hill will have real competition to unseat Watson
- The Saints could choose to use the Flex-TE less and instead utilize more 4 WR sets if multiple young receivers from the group including Nick Toon, Brandon Coleman and Seantavious Jones emerge.
- Hill could make a huge leap forward in production and still not become an impact fantasy option because he has so far to go to get from his 14 receptions in 2014 to TE1 numbers in 2015.
Final Thoughts
Behind the top five tight ends, there is a huge cluster of nearly twenty players at the position all projected to score between 9 and 11 points per game (PPR scoring) in 2015. Never has the tight end position been deeper with solid and moderately productive options. There is very little separation between a low end TE1 and the large group of TE2s, many of whom will be available on the waiver wire in most leagues. In short, solid production from the TE position is extremely cheap and easy to find and there is no real penalty for swinging and missing on your TE1 pick in the mid-rounds of the draft. Safe options abound and the waiver wire will be stocked with solid fallback options.
The commodity which is much more rare and difficult to find is real upside at the tight end position. Perhaps no tight end being drafted outside of the first five rounds can match the upside of Josh Hill. If he breaks out, he has both the talent and opportunity to be one of the few real difference-makers at the position. With an ADP outside of the Top100, the price is right to roll the dice on Hill's upside.
Projections
YEAR | G | REC | YD | TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | NO | 14 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
2014 | NO | 16 | 14 | 176 | 5 |
2015 | PROJ-Dodds | 16 | 55 | 649 | 7 |
2015 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 58 | 720 | 6 |
2015 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 39 | 475 | 3 |
2015 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 38 | 459 | 5 |
Other Viewpoints
Nfl.com's Marc Sessler identifies Josh Hill as a player he believes will "Make the Leap" in 2015:
Still, (the addition of Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller) doesn't mean the Saints are done throwing to the tight end, as made clear by Payton's consistent offseason praise for young target Josh Hill. Entering his third season, the 6-foot-5, 250-pounder "certainly" will see "more snaps" because of Graham's departure, per Payton, who clarified that Hill is set up to play off the line as the team's "F" target.
Joseph Juan of Numberfire asks, Can Josh Hill Effetively Fill the Saints' Tight End Void?
Hill's efficiency as a pass-catcher is also evident when we look at one of our signature metrics, Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target, compared to Graham's. His 0.81 Reception NEP per target last season actually beats Graham's career average of 0.73. All in all, this provides encouraging evidence that Hill's pass-catching abilities should not be a concern for fantasy football owners next season.
Everything is lining up for Josh Hill to step out of Jimmy Graham's shadow and make a big splash this upcoming season for the Saints.