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Dynasty Trade Value Chart: January

Quantifying Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, that is a trade offer worth strongly considering. 

The Dynasty Trade Value Chart lists three separate numbers. The first column ("2018") is based upon the player's projected 2018 fantasy value as determined by season-long average draft position and statistical projections. It approximates the difference between the player's weekly fantasy points per game projection and the replacement-level production at the postion. The second column ("Future") is calculated similary but projects the player's cumulative value for 2019 and beyond. The third column has the player's dynasty trade value ("Value") and is the sum of the previous two columns. 

Rookie Pick Values

1.01 (40)

Unless something crazy happens, Saquon Barkley is going to be the nearly unanimous choice at 1.01. The top pick this year has massive dynasty value and already ranks as one the most valuable single dynasty assets. Barkley has been discussed in glowing terms by scouts who consistently rank him as the top overall talent in the draft class and as one of the top running back prospects in recent history. Barkley also has an ideal skillset for fantasy. At 235 pounds, he has the size to handle a heavy workload but also has elite receiving ability for the position that could make him a PPR star. 

The top-5 dynasty players (Odell Beckham Jr., Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, DeAndre Hopkins and Le'Veon Bell) all have dynasty trade values between 43 and 48 points in my calculations. The 1.01 (Barkley) checks in with a value of 40 points. The pick value may move a couple points in either direction based upon the favorability of Barkley’s landing spot but should remain at least on par with that of the top 2017 rookies. Expect Barkley to be a popular choice in the mid-first round of startup drafts this offseason.

1.02 (22)

1.03 (20)

1.04 (18)

Like the 2016 draft when Ezekiel Elliott stood out as the clear top fantasy prospect, there is a steep drop off in value between the 1.01 and the 1.02. The wide receiver class looks to be lacking any elite players and we may not see a wide receiver taken in the top-15 overall in the NFL draft. Recency bias based upon the success of the 2017 running back class and lack of success for the top 2017 wide receivers should make the top rookie running backs hot commodities again in 2018. The 1.02 is most likely to be one of the running backs in what looks to be another very talented and relatively deep group. The prime candidates to emerge as the second back behind Barkley are Derrius Guice, Sony Michel and Ronald Jones II. Guice is the favorite for 1.02 as of today but landing spots will be key in ordering the second-tier backs. Odds are at least one of this group lands in a great spot and the 1.02 ends up as a top-20 overall dynasty asset. The 1.03 and 1.04 are also most likely to be running backs, though a wide receiver could easily emerge through the process as worthy of an early first-round rookie pick. 

1.05 (15)

1.06 (13)

1.07 (11)

1.08 (10)

While perhaps lacking any elite talents, the top tier of wide receivers has decent depth this year. We should see at least a couple land in the first round of the NFL draft. Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk and James Washington are all likely to be first-round rookie picks in fantasy drafts this summer. We may see some of the receivers fall a little bit further than they should this year based upon the success of last year’s running backs. 

1.09 (9)

1.10 (8)

1.11 (8)

1.12 (7)

Like last year, the strength of the rookie class again looks to be the depth of the running back position. In addition to the four backs discussed above, there is plenty of upside for backs like Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Kalen Ballage, and John Kelly. We should see decent rookie draft options even in the back half of the first round due to this running back depth.

Early 2nd (6)

Mid-2nd (5)

Late-2nd (4)

The non-premium fantasy positions of quarterback and tight end are deep this year. We could see four quarterbacks in the top-10 overall (Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Allen) of the NFL Draft. Lamar Jackson might not be drafted as highly by the NFL but projects as a second-round rookie draft pick due to his tremendous rushing upside. At least a few of the top tight ends (Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Troy Fumagalli, and Mark Andrews) should end up in the second-round of rookie drafts as well. 

If they don’t end up in the first round of rookie drafts, Auden Tate, Josh Adams, Jaylen Samuels, Nyheim Hines, Akrum Wadley, Deon Cain, Equanimeous St. Brown and D.J. Moore are amongst the names we could see in the second round. 

3rd Round (2-3)

The 2018 rookie class looks deeper than the 2016 class but not quite as deep as the 2017 class. There should be a number of intriguing mid-round wide receiver prospects still on the board well into the third round. 

Quarterback Trade Value Chart

RankPlayer2018FutureValue
1 Deshaun Watson 4 11 15
2 Carson Wentz 3 10 13
3 Russell Wilson 4 9 13
4 Aaron Rodgers 4 8 12
5 Cam Newton 3 6 9
6 Andrew Luck 1 7 8
7 Dak Prescott 1 6 7
8 Jared Goff 1 5 6
9 Jimmy Garoppolo 2 4 6
10 Marcus Mariota 0.5 5.5 6
11 Jameis Winston 0.5 5.5 6
12 Matthew Stafford 1 5 6
13 Tom Brady 4 2 6
14 Derek Carr 0.5 4.5 5
15 Patrick Mahomes II 0.5 4.5 5
16 Matt Ryan 1 3 4
17 Drew Brees 2 2 4
18 Kirk Cousins 1 3 4
19 Mitchell Trubisky 0.5 2.5 3
20 Ben Roethlisberger 1 2 3
21 Philip Rivers 1 2 3
22 Alex Smith 0.5 0.5 1
23 Teddy Bridgewater 0.5 0.5 1
24 Andy Dalton 0.5 0.5 1
25 Blake Bortles 0.5 0.5 1
26 Tyrod Taylor 0 1 1
27 Ryan Tannehill 0 1 1
28 Sam Bradford 0.5 0.5 1
29 Nick Foles 0.5 0.5 1
30 Case Keenum 0.5 0.5 1
31 Joe Flacco 0 0 0
32 Eli Manning 0 0 0
33 DeShone Kizer 0 0 0
34 A.J. McCarron 0 0 0
35 Jacoby Brissett 0 0 0
36 Chad Kelly 0 0 0
37 Jacoby Brissett 0 0 0
38 Trevor Siemian 0 0 0
39 Josh McCown 0 0 0
40 Brett Hundley 0 0 0

 

Quarterback Notes

Deshaun Watson is one of four quarterbacks in the top tier of early 2018 best ball drafts, right alongside Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady. With a short-term value similar to the top passers, the case for Watson as the top dynasty quarterback is easy to make. He is 12 years younger than Aaron Rodgers and seven years younger than Russell Wilson. 

The dynasty trade market (and startup ADP) hasn’t adjusted quickly enough to just how much fantasy value Jimmy Garoppolo has. He is already being drafted as a top-8 quarterback in 2018 best ball leagues and it is hard to argue against that lofty status based upon how fantastic he was down the stretch in San Francisco. He is a worthwhile trade target and a steal if in startup drafts at is current ADP. 

On the other hand, the dynasty trade market still hasn’t fully factored in the injury risk of Andrew Luck. He has an early ADP of QB15 in 2018 best ball leagues, which reflects the real uncertainty about whether he will be able to return at full strength next season. If you can still get premium value in a trade for Luck, it is worth exploring and Deshaun Watson is a much better target at his current startup ADP.

Tom Brady still has plenty of value in the short-term and the incredible depth of young talent at quarterback position means it is cheaper than ever to pair Brady with a young passer like Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr or Patrick Mahomes to lock in elite production in the short run while having a long-term solution in place as well.

Running Back Trade Value Chart

RankPlayer2018FutureValue
1 Todd Gurley 10 38 48
2 Ezekiel Elliott 9 36 45
3 Le'Veon Bell 10 33 43
4 Leonard Fournette 7 31 38
5 David Johnson 8 28 36
6 Alvin Kamara 8 27 35
7 Kareem Hunt 6 23 29
8 Dalvin Cook 4 20 24
9 Melvin Gordon III 5 15 20
10 Joe Mixon 3 16 19
11 Christian McCaffrey 4 15 19
12 Devonta Freeman 4 11 15
13 Jordan Howard 3 9 12
14 Derrick Henry 3 9 12
15 Mark Ingram II 3 6 9
16 Jay Ajayi 2 6 8
17 Carlos Hyde 2 6 8
18 LeSean McCoy 5 3 8
19 Kenyan Drake 3 4 7
20 Tevin Coleman 1 5 6
21 Duke Johnson Jr 1 4 5
22 Dion Lewis 3 2 5
23 D'Onta Foreman 1 3 4
24 Alex Collins 2 2 4
25 C.J. Anderson 1 2 3
26 Lamar Miller 2 1 3
27 Jamaal Williams 1 2 3
28 Aaron Jones 1 2 3
29 Jerick McKinnon 1 2 3
30 Marlon Mack 1 2 3
31 Tarik Cohen 1 2 3
32 Giovani Bernard 1 2 3
33 Rex Burkhead 1 2 3
34 Samaje Perine 1 2 3
35 Chris Thompson 1 2 3
36 Isaiah Crowell 1 2 3
37 DeMarco Murray 1 1 2
38 Ameer Abdullah 0.5 1.5 2
39 Ty Montgomery 0.5 1.5 2
40 James White 0.5 1.5 2
41 Theo Riddick 1 1 2
42 James Conner   2 2
43 Wayne Gallman 0.5 1.5 2
44 Matt Breida 0.5 1.5 2
45 Latavius Murray 0.5 1.5 2
46 Austin Ekeler 0.5 1.5 2
47 Kenneth Dixon 0.5 0.5 1
48 Orleans Darkwa 0.5 0.5 1
49 Elijah McGuire 0 1 1
50 Devontae Booker 0.5 0.5 1
51 Bilal Powell 0.5 0.5 1
52 T.J. Yeldon 0.5 0.5 1
53 C.J. Prosise 0 1 1
54 Joe Williams 0 1 1
55 Marshawn Lynch 0.5 0.5 1
56 Doug Martin 0.5 0.5 1
57 Peyton Barber 0.5 0.5 1
58 Chris Carson 0.5 0.5 1
59 Jonathan Stewart 0.5 0.5 1
60 Corey Clement 0 1 1

Running Back Notes

Outside of the elite dozen or so backs who are locked into starting roles, dynasty value is incredibly volatile at the running back position in the early part of the offseason. The value of free agents like Mark Ingram II and Carlos Hyde will be heavily impacted by where they land in free agency. Backs like Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake and C.J. Anderson who ended the season as starters could see their value shoot up if their teams address other positional needs in free agency and the early rounds of the draft. They could also see their dynasty value plummet if a talented rookie shows up to compete for the starting job. This volatility creates an opportunity to buy at deflated prices if you feel strongly about the talent level of any of these backs who are in limbo. It also makes it a good time to try to cash out for a safer dynasty asset before the trade market crashes if you feel the opposite.

It is interesting to note that Alvin Kamara (RB4) is being drafted slightly ahead of David Johnson (RB5) in 2018 best ball leagues. Kamara may actually still be a little bit undervalued by the dynasty community. The Saints have quietly built one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and no offense in football has been more fantasy-friendly to the running back position than Sean Payton’s Saints. 

The playoff performance of Leonard Fournette should further boost his dynasty value. He is an elite talent at the position and will be the centerpiece of the Jaguars offense over both the short and long-term. He has battled ankle injuries for the past two years, however. If Fournette can put together a healthy 2018 season, he has a chance to move into the top-5 overall. 

Kenyan Drake has an early 2018 best ball ADP of RB18 and is being drafted ahead of players like Joe Mixon, Carlos Hyde, and Dion Lewis. Drake just turned 24-years old and was quite effective as the lead back for Miami down the stretch of the 2017 season. 

Wide Receiver Trade Value Chart

RankPlayer2018FutureValue
1 Odell Beckham 7 38 45
2 DeAndre Hopkins 8 35 43
3 Mike Evans 6 32 38
4 Michael Thomas 6 30 36
5 Antonio Brown 9 26 35
6 Keenan Allen 6 26 32
7 Julio Jones 7 24 31
8 Davante Adams 5 24 28
9 A.J. Green 6 20 26
10 Stefon Diggs 4 18 22
11 Tyreek Hill 5 17 22
12 T.Y. Hilton 4 17 21
13 Allen Robinson 3 18 21
14 Amari Cooper 3 16 19
15 Brandin Cooks 4 15 19
16 Corey Davis 2 14 16
17 Jarvis Landry 4 11 15
18 JuJu Smith-Schuster 3 12 15
19 Adam Thielen 5 10 15
20 Alshon Jeffery 3 11 14
21 Josh Gordon 2 10 12
22 DeVante Parker 2 9 11
23 Sammy Watkins 2 9 11
24 Doug Baldwin 3 8 11
25 Marvin Jones Jr 3 7 10
26 Golden Tate 3 6 9
27 Dez Bryant 3 6 9
28 Devin Funchess 3 6 9
29 Mike Williams 1 7 8
30 Will Fuller V 2 6 8
31 Demaryius Thomas 3 4 7
32 Sterling Shepard 2 5 7
33 Cooper Kupp 2 5 7
34 Robert Woods 2 4 6
35 Nelson Agholor 1 5 6
36 Kenny Golladay 1 5 6
37 Chris Godwin 1 5 6
38 Marquise Goodwin 2 3 5
39 Jamison Crowder 2 3 5
40 Josh Doctson 1 4 5
41 Marqise Lee 2 3 5
42 Martavis Bryant 2 2 4
43 Chris Hogan 2 2 4
44 Corey Coleman 1 3 4
45 Dede Westbrook 1 3 4
46 Kelvin Benjamin 1 2 3
47 Michael Crabtree 1 2 3
48 Randall Cobb 1 2 3
49 Pierre Garcon 2 1 3
50 Jordy Nelson 1 2 3
51 Curtis Samuel 0 3 3
52 John Ross 0 3 3
53 Julian Edelman 2 1 3
54 Donte Moncrief 1 2 3
55 Kenny Stills 1 2 3
56 Emmanuel Sanders 1 1 2
57 Tyler Lockett 0 2 2
58 Robby Anderson 1 1 2
59 Paul Richardson Jr 0 2 2
60 Taywan Taylor 0 2 2
61 Larry Fitzgerald 2 0 2
62 Rishard Matthews 1 0 1
63 DeSean Jackson 1 0 1
64 John Brown 0 1 1
65 Jordan Matthews 0 1 1
66 Terrelle Pryor 0 1 1
67 Mack Hollins 0 1 1
68 Mohamed Sanu 0 1 1
69 Zay Jones 0 1 1
70 Tyrell Williams 0 1 1

 

Wide Receiver Notes

The most interesting dynamic at the wide receiver position this offseason will be how different owners value the elite receivers like Antonio Brown and A.J. Green who will turn 30-years old this summer (Julio Jones turns 29 in February and is not far behind). We have seen so many examples in recent seasons of top receivers (Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, etc.) suffer massive drop-offs with little warning. I personally prefer targeting younger players in the early rounds of startup drafts and in trades prefer moving an aging veteran a year early versus risking waiting a year too long. 

Davante Adams is the receiver most likely to ascend to top-10 overall status this year. His long-term extension in Green Bay and the sudden decline of Jordy Nelson leave Adams as the clear #1 receiver moving forward in Green Bay. The fantasy upside as Aaron Rodgers’ top target is immense. 

T.Y. Hilton is a fascinating case because his value depends almost entirely on whether Andrew Luck can return from injury to be an elite passer again. If Luck puts his shoulder problems behind him, Hilton should have a big season and see his dynasty value trend up.

We should see some of the talented 2014 rookie class of wide receivers hit the free agent market this offseason. Allen Robinson is a potential franchise-tag candidate in Jacksonville. Jarvis Landry seems headed toward the open market, which should create another opening for the disappointing DeVante Parker to emerge. Sammy Watkins probably didn’t do enough in Los Angeles to warrant a franchise tag and should also be a popular free agent. Marqise Lee may be the odd man out in Jacksonville and could be a mid-career breakout candidate when he teams up with a better quarterback. 

Tight End Trade Value Chart

RankName2018FutureValue
1 Rob Gronkowski 5 17 22
2 Travis Kelce 5 16 20
3 Zach Ertz 4 14 18
4 Evan Engram 3 13 16
5 Hunter Henry 2 10 12
6 David Njoku 1 7 8
7 O.J. Howard 1 6 7
8 Kyle Rudolph 2 3 5
9 Tyler Eifert 2 3 5
10 Greg Olsen 3 2 5
11 Jack Doyle 2 2 4
12 Jordan Reed 1 2 3
13 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 1 2 3
14 Jimmy Graham 2 1 3
15 Austin Hooper 1 2 3
16 George Kittle 1 2 3
17 Eric Ebron 1 1 2
18 Adam Shaheen 0 2 2
19 Gerald Everett 0 2 2
20 Jonnu Smith 0 2 2
21 Delanie Walker 1 0 1
22 Cameron Brate 1 0 1
23 Tyler Kroft 1 0 1
24 Charles Clay 1 0 1
25 Trey Burton 0 1 1

Tight End Notes

The 2017 rookie class added greatly to the fantasy depth of the tight end position. 7 of the current top 20 of the rankings were rookies last season. Second-year breakouts are possible if any of these young tight ends can build on their strong debut seasons. 

Tyler Eifert is a great buy-low candidate before free agency. He is an obvious talent and is likely to leave Cincinnati for what could be greener pastures. If he can simply stay healthy, Eifert has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy tight end and is just 27-years old.