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Free Agency Impact on Dynasty Values

The Dynasty Player Values Most Impacted by Free Agency

 

It has been mentioned in past dynasty trade value articles that one of the factors taken into account when formulating the values is the ADP of recent MFL10s. MFL10 ADP is an especially important piece of information at this time of the year because things can move fast in the offseason and most of us aren't constantly plugged in and re-assessing the impact of each piece of news on every player's value. But a good percentage of the fantasy footballers that are participating in MFL10s early in the offseason are hardcore and sharp at what they do. Many are constantly tweaking their 2016 projections, taking into account the full range of outcomes prior to, during and after free agency and the draft. 

With a few days prior to the opening of free agency, there is still time to try to grab a player with free agency upside at a value. For example, if you can get Charles Sims or Marvin Jones at a low cost prior to the open of free agency, both make for nice trade targets. There are also likely to be some narrow windows with sell-high opportunities during free agency when the hype goes too far on players who see their situation improve.

Players Who Could be Most Impacted by Free Agency 

1. Charles Sims- Sims has a chance to see his dynasty value increase significantly if the Buccaneers are unable to sign Doug Martin in free agency (and don't replace him with an equally talented player). Sims rushed for an impressive 4.9 yards per carry last season and put up an especially impressive 11.0 yards per reception on his 51 catches out of the backfield. There are three scenarios that we could see play out in Tampa at running back:

A. Doug Martin signs an extension in Tampa (or another top back like Matt Forte or Lamar Miller is signed). Sims will remain a flex option with relatively minimal week-to-week value for the next couple seasons at least. He averaged 11.4 PPG in his part-time role last season, which is right around "replacement-level" production in a 12-team league.

B. Tampa signs a mid-tier back (like Chris Ivory or Ronnie Hillman) or drafts a back in the first few rounds. In this scenario, there's a great chance that we see Sims go from 35% of the running back to touches to 40-50% of the touches and become a solid fantasy RB2 due to his heavy pass-game usage. Even with Sims getting the majority of the pass-game work, he would not be a fantasy RB1 with most of the goalline work going to the other back.

C. Tampa does little to add serious competition for the lead role and Sims steps up as a 250+ touch workhorse. This is obviously the most exciting possibility for dynasty owners. While it's a bit of a longshot, there is a chance that the Buccaneers give Sims a shot as the lead runner. Sims could be a fantasy star in that role with 75+ receptions and 1,000+ rushing yards both realistic projections.

Sims is up to RB29 in MFL10 drafts and has been rising quickly, so there seems to be some optimism that one of the two more ideal scenarios plays out. A recent statement from Buccaneers GM Jason Licht can be read as indicating that the first two scenarios are most likely, but still leaves open the possibility of Sims as the workhorse back: "We really like Charles Sims. We love him in his role," Licht said. "We think he can carry the ball. We think he’s very valuable in the passing game, more so, but we think he can carry the ball. You just never know on players until they are thrust into a certain role and he’s never been thrust into a role where he’s a workhorse, so you never know, but we like everything about him." 

2. Marvin Jones- The ideal scenario for Jones' dynasty owners is that he leaves Cincinnati for a team that will make him their first or second target in a high-volume passing offense. The soon-to-be 26-year old has played extremely well for the Bengals but remains behind A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert in the pecking order for red zone targets. He has been a better NFL player than fantasy player and those are the guys with real fantasy upside when they hit the free agent market. Bengals.com writer Geoff Hobson says the Bengals are set to make "Herculean efforts" to keep Jones in Cincinnati, but as the top receiver on the market (after Alshon Jeffery was tagged), Jones could get a big offer that the Bengals are unwilling to match. New England, Minnesota and St. Louis are intriguing landing spots where Jones would step in as the top outside receiver. Anyone willing to pay $7M+ per season for Jones will have a big role in mind for him. 

3. C.J. Anderson- Anderson is a restricted free agent and almost guaranteed to remain in Denver. But the remainder of the Denver backfield is completely up in the air. Will the Broncos retain free agent Ronnie Hillman to reprise his role as 1B to Anderson's 1A? Will Denver pursue a free agent back such as Kubiak-favorite Arian Foster? The Broncos are going to be a run-heavy team in 2016 and are likely to put up big numbers overall. The question for Anderson will be how large his piece of that pie is and the next week will go a long ways towards giving us that answer. Anderson has fantasy RB1 upside if given 60% or more of the touches in Denver's backfield.

4. Jay Ajayi- Reports out of Miami have the Dolphins offering a contract in the $5M per season range to free agent running back Lamar Miller. The most likely scenario is that the two parties are able to bridge what appears to be a relatively small gap and that Miller will remain in Miami long-term. For Ajayi, that would be a real blow to his dynasty value because he is under contract for three more seasons in Miami. The Dolphins are pretty tight up against the cap after deciding to use their transition tag on Olivier Vernon however, so it is possible that Miller will find more money on the open market. If so, Ajayi could be the primary beneficiary as he should receive the first crack at the starting job should Miller exit.

5. Doug Martin- Martin is coming off of an exceptional 2015 season in which put up 1,673 yards from scrimmage. He should be the most coveted back on the market and some team is going to have to make him a financial priority to obtain his services. From that perspective, it's relatively safe to assume he is giong to end up the lead back somewhere. However, there's a big difference between stepping into the lead role behind Dallas's road-grading offensive line and ending up on a poor team hoping to rebuild their running game. Thus, Martin's eventual landing spot will have a major impact on his short-term projections; at 27-years old, the short-term projections constitute nearly all of Martin's dynasty value.

6. Lamar Miller- If Martin isn't the top back on the market, there's a good case to be made for Lamar Miller. Miller does not turn 25-years old until later this spring and has his best football ahead of him. With an asking price in the $5-6M per year range, Miller is going to be viewed as the lead back by any team willing to pay up for his services. Thus, there's no real downside threat to his value in free agency. However, there is a bit of upside built in if he does the unexpected and leaves Miami (and the Dolphins' mediocre offensive line) for a better situation. Dallas stands out as the top destination for any free agent back and Miller could put up huge numbers there. 

7. Matt Jones- If Alfred Morris leaves in free agency as expected, only Jones, Chris Thompson and Silas Redd will be under contract in Washington. Unless Washington goes out and signs a free agent back (or drafts one early), the starting job is there for the taking for the second-year back. The assumption has been all along that Jones would get his shot in 2016 and that assumption is already priced into his dynasty value for the most part. But he will get at least a small bump if Alfred Morris signs elsewhere and no free agents are added to take his place.

8. Mohamed Sanu- While Sanu is not a dynamic player, he has proven effective in the slot and has put up fantasy-relevant numbers over shorter stretches when getting consistent targets. He is a bit of a forgotten man after falling to fifth in the passing-game pecking order for the Bengals, but should find a role as one of the top three passing options for some team in free agency. His best case is landing on a high-volume passing attack as the big slot receiver. New Orleans could use a big slot guy to replace Marques Colston

9. Jermaine Kearse- In a weak wide receiver class, Kearse stands out as one of the few potential difference-makers available for a team desperate for help at the wide receiver position. He notched 685 yards on just 68 targets in 2015 and also has found major success in his playoff career. Kearse could approach 1,000 receiving yards if he finds a WR-needy team that can give him 100+ targets. 

10. Alfred Morris- When Mike Shanahan and his zone-blocking scheme left Washington, Morris became a fish out of water in Jay Gruden's  West Coast offense. Fit will be key for Morris because he is not the type of dynamic athlete at the position who can excel in all offenses. Houston and Denver would both be intriguing landing spots for Morris. 

Quarterback Trade Values

Rank Player Value
1 QB Cam Newton, CAR 28
2 QB Andrew Luck, IND 26
3 QB Russell Wilson, SEA 20
4 QB Aaron Rodgers, GB 14
5 QB Marcus Mariota, TEN 9
6 QB Jameis Winston, TB 9
7 QB Blake Bortles, JAX 9
8 QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 9
9 QB Derek Carr, OAK 6
10 QB Drew Brees, NO 5
11 QB Andy Dalton, CIN 4
12 QB Tom Brady, NE 4
13 QB Matthew Stafford, DET 3
14 QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA 2
15 QB Philip Rivers, SD 2
16 QB Kirk Cousins, WAS 2
17 QB Carson Palmer, ARI 1
18 QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN 1
19 QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF  
20 QB Matt Ryan, ATL  
21 QB Tony Romo, DAL  
22 QB Alex Smith, KC  
23 QB Eli Manning, NYG  
24 QB Sam Bradford, PHI  
25 QB Brock Osweiler, DEN  
26 QB Joe Flacco, BAL  
27 QB Jay Cutler, CHI  
28 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ  
29 QB Robert Griffin III, WAS  
30 QB A.J. McCarron, CIN  
31 QB Colin Kaepernick, SF  
32 QB Blaine Gabbert, SF  
33 QB Case Keenum, STL  
34 QB Jimmy Garoppolo, NE  
35 QB Chase Daniel, KC  
36 QB Brian Hoyer, HOU  
37 QB Nick Foles, STL  
38 QB Brett Hundley, GB  
39 QB Mike Glennon, TB  
40 QB Sean Mannion, STL  
41 QB Mark Sanchez, PHI  
42 QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN  
43 QB Josh McCown, CLE  
45 QB Ryan Mallett, BAL  
46 QB Geno Smith, NYJ  
47 QB Johnny Manziel, CLE  
48 QB David Fales, CHI  
49 QB EJ Manuel, BUF  
50 QB Chad Henne, JAX  

Running Back Trade Values

Rank Player Value
1 RB Todd Gurley, STL 40
2 RB LeVeon Bell, PIT 39
3 RB David Johnson, ARI  36
4 RB Devonta Freeman, ATL 28
5 RB Thomas Rawls, SEA 20
6 RB T.J. Yeldon, JAX 18
7 RB Carlos Hyde, SF 16
8 RB Mark Ingram, NO 14
9 RB Lamar Miller, MIA 13
10 RB Eddie Lacy, GB 12
11 RB Giovani Bernard, CIN 12
12 RB Jeremy Langford, CHI 11
13 RB Jeremy Hill, CIN 11
14 RB Jamaal Charles, KC 11
15 RB Doug Martin, TB 10
16 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN 10
17 RB Melvin Gordon, SD 10
18 RB Javorius Allen, BAL 10
19 RB LeSean McCoy, BUF 10
20 RB Karlos Williams, BUF 9
21 RB Duke Johnson, CLE 9
22 RB Jay Ajayi, MIA 9
23 RB Matt Jones, WAS 8
24 RB C.J. Anderson, DEN 8
25 RB Matt Forte, CHI 7
26 RB Ameer Abdullah, DET  7
27 RB Charles Sims, TB 7
28 RB Latavius Murray, OAK 6
29 RB DeMarco Murray, PHI 5
30 RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN 4
31 RB Dion Lewis, NE 4
32 RB Ryan Mathews, PHI 3
33 RB Theo Riddick, DET 3
34 RB Tevin Coleman, ATL 3
35 RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE 2
36 RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR 2
37 RB Arian Foster, HOU 2
38 RB Charcandrick West, KC 2
39 RB David Cobb, TEN 2
40 RB Danny Woodhead, SD 1
41 RB Zach Zenner, DET 1
42 RB James White, NE 1
43 RB Spencer Ware, KC 1
44 RB Darren McFadden, DAL 1
45 RB Chris Ivory, NYJ 1
46 RB James Starks, GB 1
47 RB Alfred Morris, WAS 1
48 RB KaDeem Carey, CHI 1
49 RB Ronnie Hillman, DEN 1
50 RB Andre Ellington, ARI  
51 RB Bilal Powell, NYJ   
52 RB DeAngelo Williams, PIT  
53 RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR  
54 RB Tre Mason, STL  
55 RB Justin Forsett, BAL  
56 RB LeGarrette Blount, NE  
57 RB Alfred Blue, HOU  
58 RB Juwan Thompson, DEN  
59 RB Khiry Robinson, NO  
60 RB Antonio Andrews, TEN  
61 RB Shane Vereen, NYG  
62 RB Lance Dunbar, DAL  
63 RB Bishop Sankey, TEN  
64 RB Frank Gore, IND  
65 RB Rashad Jennings, NYG  
66 RB Chris Johnson, ARI  
67 RB C.J. Spiller, NO  
68 RB Darren Sproles, PHI   
69 RB Christine Michael, SEA  
70 RB Chris Thompson, WAS  
71 RB Tim Hightower, NO  
72 RB Mike Davis, SF  
73 RB Malcolm Brown, STL  
74 RB Damien Williams, MIA   
75 RB Andre Williams, NYG  

 Wide Receiver Trade Values

Rank Player Value
1 WR Odell Beckham Jr, NYG 61
2 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU 55
3 WR Julio Jones, ATL 51
4 WR Allen Robinson, JAX 44
5 WR Antonio Brown, PIT  42
6 WR Sammy Watkins, BUF 42
7 WR Mike Evans, TB 39
8 WR Amari Cooper, OAK 38
9 WR Keenan Allen, SD 38
10 WR A.J. Green, CIN 36
11 WR Dez Bryant, DAL 36
12 WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI 35
13 WR Brandin Cooks, NO 27
14 WR Martavis Bryant, PIT 25
15 WR Jarvis Landry, MIA  24
16 WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR 23
17 WR T.Y. Hilton, IND  23
18 WR DeVante Parker, MIA 21
19 WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN 21
20 WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN 20
21 WR Kevin White, CHI 20
22 WR Randall Cobb, GB 20
23 WR Josh Gordon, CLE 18
24 WR Jeremy Maclin, KC 18
25 WR Michael Floyd, ARI 16
26 WR Donte Moncrief, IND 16
27 WR Tyler Lockett, SEA  16
28 WR John Brown, ARI 15
29 WR Jordy Nelson, GB 14
30 WR Jordan Matthews, PHI 14
31 WR Doug Baldwin, SEA 14
32 WR Eric Decker, NYJ 13
33 WR Breshad Perriman, BAL 13
34 WR Golden Tate, DET  13
35 WR Allen Hurns, JAX 11
36 WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ 11
37 WR Julian Edelman, NE 9
38 WR Devin Funchess, CAR 8
39 WR Stefon Diggs, MIN 7
40 WR Phillip Dorsett, IND 6
41 WR Nelson Agholor, PHI 6
42 WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN  6
43 WR Tavon Austin, STL  5
44 WR Marvin Jones, CIN 5
45 WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI 4
46 WR Jeff Janis, GB 4
47 WR DeSean Jackson, WAS 4
48 WR Travis Benjamin, CLE  4
49 WR Michael Crabtree, OAK 3
50 WR Chris Conley, KC 3
51 WR Willie Snead, NO 3
52 WR Jamison Crowder, WAS  2
53 WR Jaelen Strong, HOU 2
54 WR Torrey Smith, SF 2
55 WR Kendall Wright, TEN 2
56 WR Ty Montgomery, GB  2
57 WR Devin Smith, NYJ 2
58 WR Sammie Coates, PIT 2
59 WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA 2
60 WR J.J. Nelson, ARI 1
61 WR Davante Adams, GB 1
62 WR DeAndre Smelter, SF 1
63 WR Steve Smith, BAL 1
64 WR Markus Wheaton, PIT  1
65 WR Calvin Johnson, DET 1
66 WR Kamar Aiken, BAL 1
67 WR Rishard Matthews, MIA 1
68 WR Brian Quick, STL  
69 WR Rueben Randle, NYG  
70 WR Danny Amendola, NE   
71 WR Brandon Coleman, NO  
72 WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN  
73 WR Justin Hardy, ATL  
74 WR Kenny Bell, TB  
75 WR Cody Latimer, DEN  
76 WR Rashad Greene, JAX   
77 WR Pierre Garcon, WAS  
78 WR Seth Roberts, OAK  
79 WR Eric Rogers, SF  
80 WR Vincent Jackson, TB  
81 WR Ted Ginn, CAR   
82 WR Kenny Britt, STL  
83 WR Steve Johnson, SD  
84 WR Anquan Boldin, SF  
85 WR Tre McBride, TEN   
86 WR Terrance Williams, DAL  
87 WR Marqise Lee, JAX  
88 WR Victor Cruz, NYG  
89 WR Mike Wallace, MIN  
90 WR Percy Harvin, BUF  

 

 

Tight End Values

Rank Player Value
1 TE Rob Gronkowski, NE 40
2 TE Tyler Eifert, CIN 25
3 TE Jordan Reed, WAS 22
4 TE Travis Kelce, KC 22
5 TE Zach Ertz, PHI 19
6 TE Greg Olsen, CAR 11
7 TE Eric Ebron, DET 9
8 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB 9
9 TE Jimmy Graham, SEA 6
10 TE Julius Thomas, JAX 5
11 TE Clive Walford, OAK 4
12 TE Delanie Walker, TEN 4
13 TE Gary Barnidge, CLE 3
14 TE Maxx Williams, BAL 3
15 TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN 2
16 TE Jesse James, PIT 1
17 TE Richard Rodgers, GB 1
18 TE Ladarius Green, SD 1
19 TE Charles Clay, BUF 1
20 TE Will Tye, NYG 1
21 TE Coby Fleener, IND  
22 TE Zach Miller, CHI  
23 TE Jason Witten, DAL  
24 TE Crockett Gillmore, BAL  
25 TE Martellus Bennett, CHI  
26 TE Dwayne Allen, IND  
27 TE Larry Donnell, NYG  
28 TE Jace Amaro, NYJ  
29 TE Jordan Cameron, MIA  
30 TE MyCole Pruitt, MIN  
31 TE Antonio Gates, SD  
32 TE Ben Watson, NO  
33 TE Blake Bell, SF  
34 TE Vance McDonald, SF  
35 TE Jeff Heuerman, DEN  
36 TE Gavin Escobar, DAL  
37 TE Owen Daniels, DEN  
38 TE Niles Paul, WAS  
39 TE Erik Swoope, IND  
40 TE Jacob Tamme, ATL  
41 TE Tyler Kroft, CIN  
42 TE Jared Cook, STL  
43 TE Demetrius Harris, KC  
44 TE Vernon Davis, DEN  
45 TE Dion Sims, MIA  
46 TE Mychal Rivera, OAK  
47 TE Darren Fells, ARI  
49 TE Josh Hill, NO