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A rushing or passing matchup rating of 5 is an extremely attractive matchup for the offense, while a 1 means the team is facing a tough defensive matchup and should probably be avoided in daily fantasy lineups. The star rankings take into account the team's Vegas total, relative strength of the offense's passing and rushing attack against the opposing defense and the expected game script (including blowout potential). The matchup ratings will help you to focus your research on the smaller number of offensive position groups with the most talent and the best matchups.
Thursday Slate
Team | Spread | Game Total | Team Total | Opponent | Run | Pass |
W Kentucky | -32.5 | 70 | 51.25 | North Texas | 4 | 5 |
Stanford | -6.5 | 54 | 30.25 | UCLA | 4 | 3 |
Auburn | -2.5 | 51.5 | 27 | Kentucky | 4 | 2 |
Kentucky | 2.5 | 51.5 | 24.5 | Auburn | 3 | 2 |
UCLA | 6.5 | 54 | 23.75 | Stanford | 3 | 3 |
North Texas | 32.5 | 70 | 18.75 | W Kentucky | 1 | 2 |
5 Star Matchup
Western Kentucky Pass- Western Kentucky averages more than 400 passing yards per game and is facing one of the nation's worst pass defenses. WKU averages a nation's best 10.6 yards per passing attempt and North Texas gives up an appalling 9.5 yards per attempt. WKU should be able to pretty much name their score, so it's just a question of when the Hilltoppers let off the gas. Expect Brandon Doughty and his top targets Taywan Taylor, Jared Dangerfield and Tyler Higbee to put up some big numbers early in what is the slate's most lopsided offensive matchup.
4 Star Matchup
Western Kentucky Run- The Hilltoppers are not a good rushing offense (3.3 yards per carry) and prefer to pass. However, this game is likely to get out of hand early (WKU is favored by 32.5 points) and North Texas boasts one of the nation's worst rush defenses (230 yards per game against). Anthony Wales and De'Andre Ferby could rack up the yardage and touchdowns in the second half should WKU show some mercy and pull Doughty early.
Stanford Run- Stanford has been both efficient (5 yards per carry) and prolific (210 yards per game) on the ground this season. UCLA has allowed 197 yards rushing per game. The numbers point to a good opportunity for Christian McCaffery and Remound Wright to rush for 200+ yards combined.
Auburn Run- Auburn has more than a 2-to-1 ratio of run to pass plays and has shown improvement as a running offense. Over the past two weeks, starting back Peyton Barber has rushed for 284 yards and five touchdowns. Kentucky is giving up 168 yards per game on the ground despite a relatively easy schedule to date.
Kentucky Run- Kentucky is just an average rushing offense (4.3 yards per carry and 155 yards per game), but faces a plus matchup against an Auburn defense that has been repeatedly gashed on the ground. The Tigers are giving up a whopping 5.7 yards per attempt and 222 rushing yards per game. Stanley "Boom" Williams returns for Kentucky after missing time with an injury and his 7.3 yards per carry makes him by far the top runner on the team.
Friday Slate
Team | Spread | Game Total | Team Total | Opponent | Run | Pass |
Houston | -19 | 60.5 | 39.75 | Tulane | 5 | 3 |
BYU | -6.5 | 65 | 35.75 | Cincinnati | 4 | 3 |
UNLV | -6.5 | 54 | 30.25 | Fresno St | 4 | 3 |
Boise State | -9.5 | 49.5 | 29.5 | Utah State | 3 | 3 |
Cincinnati | 6.5 | 65 | 29.25 | BYU | 3 | 4 |
Fresno St | 6.5 | 54 | 23.75 | UNLV | 2 | 2 |
Tulane | 19 | 60.5 | 20.75 | Houston | 2 | 2 |
Utah State | 9.5 | 49.5 | 20 | Boise State | 2 | 1 |
5 STar Mathcups
Houston Run- The Cougars rank 6th nationally with 293 rushing yards per game and 4th nationally with 54 rushing attempts per game. Most of those runs and yards come from the dynamic backfield duo of quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. and running back Kenneth Farrow. Tulane has been an average run defense through the first half of the season, but has not faced a rushing offense anywhere near as prolific as the one Houston will bring to New Orleans.
4 Star Matchups
BYU Run- The Cougars rushing numbers are skewed downward by a miserable performance against Michigan. The Cougars and top back Algernon Brown should find plenty of success against a soft Cincinnati run defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry against so far. BYU will also likely look to go more run-heavy than normal to control the clock and keep the potent Cincinnati passing offense on the sidelines.
Cincinnati Pass- Cincinnati is 5th nationally with 397 passing yards per game (though that is somewhat skewed due to a ridiculous 620 passing yard outburst against Mempis). BYU is a slightly below average pass defense, so the matchup sets up pretty well for the Bearcats to throw for 300 yards no matter which Cincinnati passer gets the start.
UNLV Run- The Rebels average 44 rushing attempts per game and have had success on the ground when not facing top opponents. Fresno State is certainly not a top opponent. The Bulldogs have allowed over five yards per carry and 247 yards per game against. With a team total above 30, UNLV is expected to put up some points and the run-heavy offense should lead the way.
Saturday Early
Team | Spread | Game Total | Team Total | Opponent | Run | Pass |
Texas Tech | -31 | 75 | 53 | Kansas | 5 | 5 |
Baylor | -21 | 76 | 48.5 | W Virginia | 5 | 5 |
E Carolina | -12 | 77.5 | 44.75 | Tulsa | 3 | 5 |
Mississippi | -10.5 | 68 | 39.25 | Memphis | 3 | 5 |
Miss State | -13.5 | 60 | 36.75 | LA Tech | 3 | 3 |
Wisconsin | -24 | 48 | 36 | Purdue | 4 | 3 |
Wash State | -8 | 63 | 35.5 | Oregon St | 2 | 4 |
Tulsa | 12 | 77.5 | 32.75 | E Carolina | 4 | 4 |
U Mass | -7 | 54.5 | 30.75 | Kent State | 2 | 4 |
Virginia | -7 | 54 | 30.5 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
Oklahoma | -4.5 | 56 | 30.25 | Kansas St | 3 | 3 |
Rutgers | 0 | 60 | 30 | Indiana | 3 | 3 |
Indiana | 0 | 60 | 30 | Rutgers | 3 | 3 |
Miami (FL) | -6 | 52 | 29 | VA Tech | 3 | 2 |
Memphis | 10.5 | 68 | 28.75 | Mississippi | 2 | 3 |
Alabama | -4 | 52.5 | 28.25 | Texas A&M | 3 | 2 |
W Virginia | 21 | 76 | 27.5 | Baylor | 2 | 3 |
Oregon St | 8 | 63 | 27.5 | Wash State | 3 | 2 |
Florida St | -7 | 46 | 26.5 | Louisville | 3 | 2 |
GA Tech | -3.5 | 49.5 | 26.5 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 1 |
Kansas St | 4.5 | 56 | 25.75 | Oklahoma | 3 | 2 |
Minnesota | -2 | 46.5 | 24.25 | Nebraska | 3 | 1 |
Texas A&M | 4 | 52.5 | 24.25 | Alabama | 1 | 3 |
Michigan | -8 | 40.5 | 24.25 | Michigan St | 3 | 1 |
Kent State | 7 | 54.5 | 23.75 | U Mass | 2 | 2 |
Syracuse | 7 | 54 | 23.5 | Virginia | 2 | 2 |
LA Tech | 13.5 | 60 | 23.25 | Miss State | 2 | 2 |
S Carolina | -2.5 | 44 | 23.25 | Vanderbilt | 2 | 2 |
Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 49.5 | 23 | GA Tech | 2 | 2 |
VA Tech | 6 | 52 | 23 | Miami (FL) | 1 | 2 |
Nebraska | 2 | 46.5 | 22.25 | Minnesota | 1 | 2 |
Kansas | 31 | 75 | 22 | Texas Tech | 1 | 2 |
Iowa | -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | Northwestern | 3 | 1 |
Vanderbilt | 2.5 | 44 | 20.75 | S Carolina | 2 | 1 |
Louisville | 7 | 46 | 19.5 | Florida St | 1 | 1 |
Northwestern | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | Iowa | 1 | 1 |
Michigan St | 8 | 40.5 | 16.25 | Michigan | 1 | 1 |
Purdue | 24 | 48 | 12 | Wisconsin | 1 | 1 |
5 Star Matchups
Texas Tech Run and Pass- In the biggest mismatch on the slate, Texas Tech's #2 ranked offense takes on the #123 ranked Kansas defense. Texas Tech usually does most of its damage through the air (#1 passing offense in the country with 439 yards per game). Kansas gives up over 300 passing yards per game and nearly 10 yards per passing attempt, so Texas Tech and Pat Mahomes should be very successful through the air early. With a 31 point spread, the Red Raiders could be less pass-heavy overall this week though if they can jump out to a big early lead. Against a woeful Kansas defense giving up 5.8 yards per rush, Texas Tech could spend much of the second half running out the clock on the ground with DeAndre Washington.
Baylor Run and Pass- Baylor's offense is #1 nationally in every major category and is averaging more than 700 yards per game. The 21 point spread is actually much lower than any game so far this season, which is a mixed blessing for fantasy purposes. On the one hand, the Baylor offense may not put up video game numbers overall (team total under 50 despite averaging 64 points per game). On the other hand, we should see starters like quarterback Seth Russell, running back Shock Linwood and receivers Corey Coleman, Jay Lee and KD Cannon play a full game instead of getting only one half of the top options before clearing the bench in the second half. West Virginia boasts a top 40 overall defense and should be able to get some stops. But the Baylor offense is too potent not to hit some big plays and the 48.5 team total means Baylor's balanced offense should score plenty of touchdowns yet again.
East Carolina Pass- The Pirates passing offense has been gaining steam after a bit of a slow start. The unit now ranks in the top 20 nationally with 310 passing yards per game. Against a soft Tulsa defense allowing 284 passing yards per game, East Carolina should be able to continue to increase their per game passing totals with 350+ yards through the air in a juicy matchup against Tulsa in which East Carolina is expected to score more than 40 points.
Mississippi Pass- Mississippi is averaging 343 passing yards per game and has been especially deadly through the air against weaker competition. Mempis is allowing a staggering 357 passing yards per game against, so this is a very favorable matchup for the Mississippi pass offense. Plus, unlike some early games, this one is expected to be close throughout (10.5 spread) so the starters should see the field the entire way and Memphis plays at a very fast pace. It should be a big day for quarterback Chad Kelly and top targets like Laquon Treadwell.
4 Star Matchups
Tulsa Run and Pass- In what is expected to be one of the weekend's highest scoring affairs (77.5 over/under), the balanced Tulsa offense should find success both on the ground (with Zach Langer) and through the air with Dane Evans. Tulsa is throwing for 368 yards per game and rushing for 200 yards per game. East Carolina's defense is about average and Tulsa should approach it's season averages this weekend.
Wisconsin Run- The Wisconsin rushing offense has been shockingly pedestrian this season (only 164 yards per game). But a home game against a brutal Purdue defense that is allowing 226 rushing yards per game against should be just what the doctor ordered to get Wisconsin's rushing offense back on track. Look for Dare Ogunbowale to have a big game.
Washington State Pass- Whenever Washington State is projected for a high team total (35.5 points this weekend), you can expect big passing totals to follow. The Cougars are the most pass-heavy team in the nation with a 3-to-1 pass-to-run ratio. The potent Washington State passing offense is averaging 419 passing yards per game. Oregon State's defense allows a healthy 7.5 yards per passing attempt, so the Cougars should again put up big numbers as they throw the ball nearly 60 times per game.
UMass Pass- UMass is the second most pass-heavy offense in the nation (behind only Washington State) with a 2-to-1 pass-to-run ratio. Kent State's pass defense has been solid, but is not as good as the numbers put up against weak competition would lead you to believe. UMass should approach its season average of 359 passing yards per game and receiver Tajae Sharpe and tight end Rodney Mills are both amongst the top options overall at their positions.