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Dynasty Trade Value Chart: November

Quantifying Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, that is a trade offer worth strongly considering.  

With trade deadlines in many leagues coming up soon, pay special attention to how much of each player's value is based upon the present season (listed under the "2017" column) versus how much is based upon expected value in 2018 and beyond (the "Future" column). These two numbers combine to equal the player's total dynasty value ("Value" column). For non-contenders, you want to pay most attention to the Future value.

It should be relatively easy to swing win-win trades at this time of year between contending and non-contending teams. The 2017 value is basically irrelevant to a non-contender. Take LeSean McCoy for instance. His overall dynasty value is 8 points. But half of that value (4 points) comes based upon his expected production down the stretch of 2017 and in the 2017 fantasy playoffs. If your team has already been eliminated however, that production is irrelevant. Thus, he is only worth 4 points to your team. Trading for any player who has a future value of more than 4 points is a win, so it shouldn't be too hard to find a deal that makes your team better in 2018 and beyond.

There are also other considerations that may make trading productive veterans a positive move in terms of expected value. For example, do not overlook the value of positioning your team for the best possible 2018 rookie pick. While it is unethical to purposely submit something other than your best possible lineup late in the season, it is perfectly ethical to make trades that hurt your short-term prospects and give you a worse starting lineup down the stretch. Let me point to a quick personal anecdote to illustrate the point... In a 2015 startup draft, I purposely drafted young players and traded down to accumulate future picks with the intention of "tanking" the first season. Going into Week 13, I was positioned for the 1.01 rookie pick in the 2016 draft. However, a 2-point win in the final week dropped me three spots to the 1.04. Instead of landing Ezekiel Elliott at 1.01 that summer, I had to settle for Josh Doctson at 1.04. As of today, those players have a massive 36 point gap in dynasty value. In short, sometimes there is a hidden value in trading away productive veterans if you are a rebuilding team that comes from improving the value of your draft capital by making it more likely your team will lose late in the season.

In this edition of the Dynasty Trade Value Chart, there will be an extra focus upon the players whose dynasty values have changed the most since the last update in October. The "Change" column indicates how much each player's value has changed in the last month. The players who have seen the biggest value changes will be discussed in more detail below. 

Some thoughts on the value of 2018 rookie picks end the article. 


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