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Every year leading up to draft season, there are players described as having “high floors." There are others who are more risky, "high-ceiling" players. This exercise will show that a mix of both is the best way to optimize your draft.
This strategy will keep your opponents guessing. Also, having some high-floor players will keep your team competitive when your "boom or bust" guys don't boom. I believe a championship team can't just have safe players thoughout. Every successful fantasy team has players that can win them a week almost on their own.
For our purposes here, we'll be picking 6th in a 12-team PPR league. We'll look at players whose Consensus ADP's (as of August 13) are within a reasonable number of slots of our pick. At the end, we'll have two teams from which we'll pick the best mix of players (using one per round). As the draft progresses, we can stray a bit more from ADP because variability increases as drafts progress.
Players highlighted in GRAY are "high floor," players while players highlighted in BLUE are "high ceiling but potentially low floor" guys. Please keep in mind that having Matt Forte as a GRAY player doesn't mean I think his ceiling is lower than Andre Ellington because Ellington is a BLUE player. The designations are simply given relative to other players in the same round. The players in BOLD are the actual selections used.
Round | ADP | Player | Team | Pos |
1 | 4 | Matt Forte | CHI/9 | RB 4 |
5 | Calvin Johnson | DET/9 | WR 1 | |
6 | Jimmy Graham | NO/6 | TE 1 | |
7 | Demaryius Thomas | DEN/4 | WR 2 | |
8 | Eddie Lacy | GB/9 | RB 5 | |
11 | Montee Ball | DEN/4 | RB 6 | |
2 | 14 | Peyton Manning | DEN/4 | QB 1 |
15 | Brandon Marshall | CHI/9 | WR 6 | |
16 | Giovani Bernard | CIN/4 | RB 8 | |
18 | Arian Foster | HOU/10 | RB 10 | |
19 | Marshawn Lynch | SEA/4 | RB 11 | |
21 | Alshon Jeffery | CHI/9 | WR 8 | |
3 | 26 | Doug Martin | TB/7 | RB 12 |
28 | Andre Ellington | ARI/4 | RB 13 | |
29 | Julius Thomas | DEN/4 | TE 3 | |
31 | Zac Stacy | STL/4 | RB 15 | |
33 | C.J. Spiller | BUF/9 | RB 17 | |
36 | Vincent Jackson | TB/7 | WR 13 |
The high-ceiling drafter is likely someone who wants the weekly positional advantage given by Jimmy Graham but believes in him/herself enough to acquire above-average talent at running back and wide receiver later in the draft.
As an aside, I love that fantasy football is a game that can be played (and won) by members of the fairer sex as well as us guys. However, for the purposes of this article, the masculine pronouns ("his," "he," "him," etc.) will be used universally to incorporate all fantasy footballers.
A running back like Marshawn Lynch is the quintessential high-floor/low-ceiling player. He has guaranteed volume but won’t break many huge gains or be involved in the receiving game. Zac Stacy is a similar fantasy asset. He's a safe bet for a drafter who wants two runners to back up his elite receiver pick of Calvin Johnson in Round 1. The high ceiling drafter is still showcasing his belief that he can find runners later in the draft by adding two physically dominant receivers to his Graham pick.
4 | 38 | Victor Cruz | NYG/8 | WR15 |
42 | Toby Gerhart | JAX/11 | RB19 | |
44 | Roddy White | ATL/9 | WR18 | |
45 | Ryan Mathews | SD/10 | RB 20 | |
47 | Cordarrelle Patterson | MIN/10 | WR20 | |
48 | Percy Harvin | SEA/4 | WR21 | |
5 | 51 | Michael Floyd | ARI/4 | WR22 |
52 | Andrew Luck | IND/10 | QB 5 | |
53 | DeSean Jackson | WAS/10 | WR23 | |
56 | Rashad Jennings | NYG/8 | RB 24 | |
57 | Ray Rice | BAL/11 | RB 25 | |
58 | Joique Bell | DET/9 | RB 26 | |
6 | 63 | Torrey Smith | BAL/11 | WR26 |
64 | Jeremy Maclin | PHI/7 | WR 27 | |
67 | Jason Witten | DAL/11 | TE 6 | |
68 | Frank Gore | SF/8 | RB 28 | |
69 | Robert Griffin III | WAS/10 | QB 7 | |
71 | Mike Wallace | MIA/5 | WR 29 |
In Round 4, our high ceiling drafter gets his first running back. Toby Gerhart has the potential to finish well ahead of his current RB19 draft position. Another route this drafter could have gone was to take the tantalizingly talented Cordarrelle Patterson here and then Joique Bell in Round 5. The carries split in Detroit could shift to Bell's favor this season, and he's already entrenched as the goal line back. It’s a recipe better than RB26 suggests.
Our safe drafter grabs Roddy White in Round 4. White is sure to get plenty of looks in Atlanta on a team who likes to throw first, has a poor defense, and should give the lion's share of the targets to White and Julio Jones.
The contrast in quarterbacks here is interesting. Andrew Luck gives his owner a player who isn't likely to fall out of the top 15 weekly quarterbacks much during the season but also isn't likely to push into the top three. Robert Griffin III has new weapons and a new offensive scheme. His deep ball accuracy paired with two great deep receivers in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon could be a site to behold. Inconsistency is likely, though.
7 | 75 | Marques Colston | NO/6 | WR 31 |
77 | Colin Kaepernick | SF/8 | QB 10 | |
78 | Sammy Watkins | BUF/9 | WR 32 | |
79 | Cam Newton | CAR/12 | QB 11 | |
81 | Greg Olsen | CAR/12 | TE 8 | |
83 | Eric Decker | NYJ/11 | WR 33 | |
8 | 86 | Terrance Williams | DAL/11 | WR 35 |
87 | Lamar Miller | MIA/5 | RB 32 | |
89 | Reggie Wayne | IND/10 | WR 36 | |
93 | Danny Woodhead | SD/10 | RB 35 | |
95 | Terrance West | CLE/4 | RB 36 | |
96 | Dwayne Bowe | KC/6 | WR 37 | |
9 | 97 | Fred Jackson | BUF/9 | RB 37 |
99 | Brandin Cooks | NO/6 | WR 39 | |
101 | Russell Wilson | SEA/4 | QB 14 | |
103 | Bernard Pierce | BAL/11 | RB 39 | |
104 | Knowshon Moreno | MIA/5 | RB 40 | |
105 | Zach Ertz | PHI/7 | TE 11 |
In Round 7, our safe drafter is looking to fill in his starting lineup, so he takes Greg Olsen. Olsen could lead Carolina in targets and receptions this season, but he won’t turn into an elite option. Our high-ceiling drafter sees a 6'3" receiver with back-to-back 1,000+ yard, double-digit touchdown seasons and thinks to himself, "maybe it wasn't just his offense; maybe this guy has the tools to put up those numbers as the top player on a lesser unit." For the record, I do think Decker can reach or surpass those marks this season.
Rounds 8 and 9 are the battle of "old vs. young." Reggie Wayne should be a high-volume receiver, and Fred Jackson will play passing downs and get almost all red zone touches for Buffalo. Jackson finished as RB12 in PPR leagues last season. He can outperform RB37, even with C.J. Spiller back in the fold.
Lamar Miller and Brandon Cooks provide loads of unrealized potential. Miller should be at least a two-down back for his team, which is adopting a Chip Kelly-esque system this year. Cooks has 100-catch potential in a potent New Orleans offense that lost Darren Sproles.
10 | 109 | Rueben Randle | NYG/8 | WR 42 |
112 | Cecil Shorts | JAX/11 | WR 43 | |
114 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU/10 | WR 45 | |
116 | Jeremy Hill | CIN/4 | RB 43 | |
117 | DeAngelo Williams | CAR/12 | RB 44 | |
118 | Carlos Hyde | SF/8 | RB 45 | |
11 | 123 | Anquan Boldin | SF/8 | WR 46 |
126 | Kenny Stills | NO/6 | WR 47 | |
128 | Danny Amendola | NE/10 | WR 49 | |
129 | St. Louis Rams | STL/4 | TD 3 | |
130 | Ladarius Green | SD/10 | TE 15 | |
132 | Kelvin Benjamin | CAR/12 | WR 50 | |
12 | 136 | Justin Hunter | TEN/9 | WR 51 |
137 | Heath Miller | PIT/12 | TE 16 | |
141 | Jarrett Boykin | GB/9 | WR 53 | |
142 | Greg Jennings | MIN/10 | WR 54 | |
143 | Chris Ivory | NYJ/11 | RB 49 |
This late in the draft, it's hard to find high-floor players. If they were sure things, they’d be going higher. However, a player like DeAndre Hopkins is a starter on his team, which is likely to be behind and passing. He should catch at least 50 passes. Greg Jennings is also a starter, and his offense should get a boost from last year with Norv Turner at the helm. The safe drafter sees the comfort of a highly-ranked defense and takes it despite the unpredictability of the position.
The high-ceiling team is again going with youth and selecting players with WR1 gifts who can be had at bargain prices. Both Justin Hunter and Kelvin Benjamin are touchdowns waiting to happen. Prior to selecting that receiver duo, Jeremy Hill was selected. Hill has standalone value as the goal-line option on a run-first team under Hue Jackson. If Giovani Bernard went down, Hill could be a fringe RB1.
Let's fast forward to the end of the draft and take a look at each team's roster by position.
Floors | Ceilings | |
QB | Andrew Luck (5) | Robert Griffin III (6) |
RB | Marshawn Lynch (2) | Toby Gerhart (4) |
RB | Zac Stacy (3) | Lamar Miller (8) |
WR | Calvin Johnson (1) | Alshon Jeffery (2) |
WR | Roddy White (4) | Vincent Jackson (3) |
WR | Torrey Smith (6) | DeSean Jackson (5) |
TE | Greg Olsen (7) | Jimmy Graham (1) |
FLEX | Reggie Wayne (8) | Eric Decker (7) |
DST | St. Louis Rams (11) | Cleveland Browns (17) |
K | Justin Tucker (15) | Matt Bryant (18) |
BENCH | Fred Jackson (9) | Brandin Cooks (9) |
BENCH | DeAndre Hopkins (10) | Jeremy Hill (10) |
BENCH | Greg Jennings (12) | Kelvin Benjamin (11) |
BENCH | Mark Ingram (13) | Justin Hunter (12) |
BENCH | Alex Smith (14) | Ahmad Bradshaw (13) |
BENCH | Andrew Hawkins (16) | Josh Gordon (14) |
BENCH | Miles Austin (17) | Andre Williams (15) |
BENCH | James Starks (18) | Roy Helu (16) |
Keen observers will notice the selection of Josh Gordon. Assuming you're drafting prior to his hearing being finalized, Gordon is a player on whom I'd take a risk as early as Round 11 in a 12-team draft. Most picks that late are eventually dropped for new players anyway, so why not have the WR1 ceiling on your team? In a league with seven or more bench spots, you might be able to hold Gordon through a less-than-season-long suspension. He'd be a huge addition for the fantasy playoffs.
To combine the best of both worlds, we need to see both teams in the order they were drafted and highlight one player per round to keep for our ultimate team.
Floors | Ceilings | |
1 | Calvin Johnson (1) | Jimmy Graham (1) |
2 | Marshawn Lynch (2) | Alshon Jeffery (2) |
3 | Zac Stacy (3) | Vincent Jackson (3) |
4 | Roddy White (4) | Toby Gerhart (4) |
5 | Andrew Luck (5) | DeSean Jackson (5) |
6 | Torrey Smith (6) | Robert Griffin III (6) |
7 | Greg Olsen (7) | Eric Decker (7) |
8 | Reggie Wayne (8) | Lamar Miller (8) |
9 | Fred Jackson (9) | Brandin Cooks (9) |
10 | DeAndre Hopkins (10) | Jeremy Hill (10) |
11 | St. Louis Rams (11) | Kelvin Benjamin (11) |
12 | Greg Jennings (12) | Justin Hunter (12) |
13 | Mark Ingram (13) | Ahmad Bradshaw (13) |
14 | Alex Smith (14) | Josh Gordon (14) |
15 | Justin Tucker (15) | Andre Williams (15) |
16 | Andrew Hawkins (16) | Roy Helu (16) |
17 | Miles Austin (17) | Cleveland Browns (17) |
18 | James Starks (18) | Matt Bryant (18) |
Taking all of the highlighted players, here is the "Super Team" by position.
QB | Robert Griffin III (6) |
RB | Marshawn Lynch (2) |
RB | Lamar Miller (8) |
WR | Calvin Johnson (1) |
WR | Vincent Jackson (3) |
WR | Roddy White (4) |
TE | Greg Olsen (7) |
FLEX | DeSean Jackson (5) |
DST | Cleveland Browns (17) |
K | Matt Bryant (18) |
BENCH | Fred Jackson (9) |
BENCH | Jeremy Hill (10) |
BENCH | Kelvin Benjamin (11) |
BENCH | Justin Hunter (12) |
BENCH | Ahmad Bradshaw (13) |
BENCH | Josh Gordon (14) |
BENCH | Andre Williams (15) |
BENCH | Andrew Hawkins (16) |
The balance of high-floor vs. high-ceiling players may seem out of tune, but consider that four of the first seven picks are high-floor players.
In terms of PPR ADP, this team starts QB7, RB11, RB32, WR1, WR13, WR18, TE8, and would flex WR23. While this team may be considered weak at running back, just remember that running back is a volatile position where "sure things" before the draft can bust and/or get injured more easily than wide receivers.
If we're right on Lamar Miller hitting his ceiling, this team is dominant. Even if not, in PPR leagues that start three receivers, the RB2 spot can be patched together via committee. The fantastic wide receivers on this team would make it able to compete with anyone.
Summary
Do this exercise before your draft. Grab an ADP list (there's one sortable and customizable by multiple sources available here on the site), and perform it for your draft slot. If you're 6th or close to it, I already did it for you. If you're not, pick an acceptable range such as one to three slots either way around your pick and determine the range of players that will most likely be available to you.
While flexibility is key in any draft, you'll find that most of your preparation will help during the process. For instance, there will inevitably be more than one player you like in a certain round. Should the one you elect not to pick slide to the next round, you'll definitely know who to pick in that spot (and you'll get great value at that). Remember: flexibility is key, but preparation leads to domination!
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com