Every year leading up to draft season, there are players described as having “high floors." There are others who are more risky, "high-ceiling" players. This exercise will show that a mix of both is the best way to optimize your draft.
This strategy will keep your opponents guessing. Also, having some high-floor players will keep your team competitive when your "boom or bust" guys don't boom. I believe a championship team can't just have safe players thoughout; it must also have a player or two who can win a week almost on their own.
For our purposes here, we'll be picking sixth in a 12-team PPR league. We'll look at players whose Consensus ADP's (as of August 10) are within a reasonable number of slots of our pick. At the end, we'll have two teams from which we'll pick the best mix of players (using one per round). As the draft progresses, we can stray a bit more from ADP because variability increases as drafts progress.
Players in gray project to have high floors and a relatively predictable range of outcomes. Players in blue project to be a bit more volatile but have higher ceilings in their range of outcomes. The players in bold were the ones selected for the exercise.