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Welcome to the Week 5 Review / Week 6 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction
primetime recap
This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:
- DeSean Jackson
- Rob Gronkowski
- Russell Wilson
Is New England officially the most confusing fantasy-relevant team in the NFL? It was always difficult to predict which of their running backs would perform well. Now, Tom Brady went from a guy every expert was saying shouldn't even be owned in most leagues to 290 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. They still lack elite talent at wide receiver, but the "move" tight end compliment to Gronkowski appears to have emerged in Tim Wright. As the tight ends continue to succeed, Edelman will get back on track and have his solid borderline PPR WR1 games. New England isn't as good as they showed Sunday night, but they're far better than what they showed last Monday.
Wilson gets the top spot because he did what a fantasy starter is supposed to do. He -- a generally modest mid-tier option among players of his position -- faced a team that presented a "plus" fantasy matchup, and he produced elite-level fantasy numbers. While it wasn't all passing numbers, no one ever said "Konami Code" points shouldn't count.
This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:
- Percy Harvin
- Alfred Morris
- Julian Edelman
I'm sorry, Percy Harvin owners. I'm so, so sorry. I'm not doing this to rub salt in the wound. But someone who went to sleep without watching this game and happened to just see Harvin's stat line is going to be disappointed. Unfortunately, touchdowns that don't count in the real game don't count for fantasy purposes either -- even if they were waved off for terribly dumb penalty calls. This is the second time in three weeks that I'm discussing a primetime officiating crew (Chicago at NY Jets was the first). This tweet that came across late Monday night just as I was writing this section of the column really nailed the point home.
You guys should watch baseball the umpiring is not good but at least the players still have a chance to decide the outcome it's cool
— Dan Hodes (@danhodes) October 7, 2014
If you were someone who got hosed by the negated Harvin touchdowns, hit me up on twitter. But your beat better be worse than the ones I'll discuss later. There's much, much more on the Harvin heartbreak below.
last week at the "book"
Our first entry this week was a new angle for the column, as this reader actually researched the Vegas player props in an attempt to gauge his chances. If any defense was going to hold DeSean Jackson to fewer than five fantasy points, it would be the Legion of Boom, but this was a tall task.
@blain_train You’re an underdog. I’ve never said I’m better than Vegas! +120. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) October 6, 2014
While my obvious and terrible typo doesn't look good, it didn't mean I was wrong in calling Mr. Blain an underdog. In retrospect, he should have been a bigger one as Jackson had a great evening.
Bad Beat of the Year Nominee Alert, Parts I and II
This one appeared to be quite easy. Fellow Staffer Heath Cummings had a 19 point lead, a PPR scoring system, a wide receiver who's far better in a PPR scoring system than standard, and a playing against a quarterback who doesn't typically "go off."
@heathcummingssr Wilson would need 35+ IMO. I don’t see it. -400. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) October 6, 2014
This loss would have been bad enough, but the fact that Harvin had not one, not two, but three touchdowns negated by penalty makes this as heart-breaking and soul-crushing as fantasy football can be.
As if that wasn't bad enough, Heath lost another league where, had he asked, I would have installed him as an even larger favorite than the -400 odds above.
@RyanHester13 Lost by 11. Also led @JeneBramel by 35 in FESL w/ Alf vs. RW & lost by 2.3. Didn't even ask #FFBookie odds were so long.
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) October 7, 2014
Bad Beat of the Year Nominee Alert, Part III
There are a ton of different scoring systems in fantasy football. I try to stick to standard, PPR, and half-PPR for the purposes of this column because they're the most universal, but this beat was just too bad to neglect. @thor243 was definitely an underdog but had what appeared to be a reasonably manageable situation.
@thor243 TD not boding well for Harvin. +140 but I hope you win bc @DangeRussWilson is the best twitter handle ever. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) October 6, 2014
@RyanHester13 welp.. pic.twitter.com/441WdbyGbK
— thorrr (@thor243) October 7, 2014
As you can see, we had an underdog on our hands but only because I saw the TD-heavy scoring system as a detriment to Harvin's chances. Setting this line based on a lack of touchdowns from Harvin didn't make me feel terrible at the time, but after watching all of him cross the goal line three times and having exactly zero of them count, I feel quite sympathetic to @thor243. A decimal point loss is always tough to swallow, but he'll remember this one for a long time.
looking ahead
Due to Wilson's fantastic night, this week marks the first time my "Jordy Nelson" selection from the prior week was the #1 "stud" in the following week's column. Last week, I chose Brady as the "Tony Romo" guy, and that really didn't work out. I'd say he clearly read this and was hellbent on proving me wrong, but there were roughly 200,000 media outlets saying the same sorts of things, so he likely wasn't focused on what I wrote.
The Jordy Nelson Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section
It feels quite odd selecting the player I'm about to select because it seems like he has probably had more games worthy of placement in the section below than here. But with Philadelphia being a red carpet for opposing fantasy quarterbacks, Eli Manning is firmly in the QB1 range this week. Whether it's a close game or a garbage-time type of situation, opposing passers are having great days against Philadelphia. Manning should be a worthwhile start this week as the Giants offense is emerging.
The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section
For the underwhelming section, we'll look to Colin Kaepernick. While he may play a fine "real" football game, there's a scenario where the San Francisco game plan and subsequent game script submarine his fantasy prospects. In Week 5, San Francisco got back to its core competency -- running the ball. St. Louis has allowed some big games on the ground this season, and a successful San Francisco running game may give them a lead and shorten the game, making the opportunities for Kaepernick scarce.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
