Welcome to the Week 4 Review / Week 5 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction. But please, come right back because we had two more fun primetime games that gave us some good fantasy-related fake gambling fun.
primetime recap
This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:
- Travis Kelce
- DeMarco Murray
- Jamaal Charles
I originally had Terrance Williams in the third spot above, and while his overall fantasy numbers were better than Kelce's, I see this as an opporunity to talk about my new man-crush. Kelce still hasn't had a game where he's played more than 62% of the snaps (and last night was only around 50%), but his usage is becoming a key part of Kansas City's offense. They often used three-man bunch sets with Kelce as one of the players in the back. It was very Chip Kelly-esque in that the play would be a called run but had a built-in bubble screen if the box was stacked. This role is typically reserved for a wide receiver in Kelly's offense, but Kansas City employed Kelce.
Among his eight chatches, a couple were these quick bubble screens. When he got the ball, Kelce got his momentum going forward and got up to speed quickly while delivering devastating stiff-arms and racking up yards after catch. The big takeaway from these formations is that when teams find simple ways to get certain players the ball, it's because trust the playmaking abilities of those certain players. These are special talents, and Kelce fits the bill.
Kelce's late touchdown was from a run-heavy goal line set where he was lined up in-line (as opposed to in the slot or out wide). He also had a catch where he started out wide, motioned towards the middle, and ran a cross-field drag leaving linebackers in the dust. He made plays from the perimeter, the slot, and in-line.
His breakout game on Monday Night Football is not a fluke. On-pace numbers are always fun to look at but generally can be misleading. Kelce's on-pace line is 72 receptions, 1,036 yards, and eight touchdowns (72-1,036-8). Consider the fact that he started slow and was being eased into the offense (he played just 32% of the snaps in Week 1), and those number look incredibly modest. As reference, Jordan Cameron's 80-917-7 made him TE5 overall in PPR leagues last season.
This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:
- Pierre Thomas
- Tom Brady
- Julian Edelman
Thomas would have made this list anyway, but the fact that I had him in one of my longest-standing, most meaningful leagues and had to watch him get less than a handful of touches in a game against a putrid defense was terrible -- particularly in a game where the script dictated that passing downs would be plentiful.
Typically, the NFL is a league where once a narrative develops, it tends to fly the other way drastically before we catch up. The idea that New England's offense was really struggling and couldn't be relied upon is one that I thought would be put to bed this week. While Kansas City is a tough place to play, I still expected more from Brady and Co. Even a typically high-floor, safest-of-the-safe guy like Edelman was held in check.
last week at the "book
With 63 total yards and two touchdowns in the first half, it was pretty clear that Charles was going to be the story. While we've seen those numbers (and better) from Charles in a half, his injury situation and subsequent lowered expectations made his evening quite the big deal for many owners.
@SigmundBloom Up by 29 in a ppr, I got charles, opponent has Edelman and patriots d. Who wins
— Boss (@youretight805) September 29, 2014
@SigmundBloom @youretight805 I like your chances. I see you at -150 even with a modest (10ish pts) night from Charles. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) September 29, 2014
While I called our next #FFBookie loyalist an underdog, I kind of had a feeling he'd make the comeback -- similar to the feeling you get when filling out an NCAA bracket and picking a 12-seed to upset a 5-seed despite them being a four-point underdog. This gentleman took the lead by halftime and held on easily.
@jmiller0802 Tough one. You're an underdog but a live one. This is the kind of +140 ticket I'd want to be on! #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) September 29, 2014
I did a "reverse" #FFBookie this week because even the #FFBookie can use a little reassurance. Without telling you all too much about my team (because that's way uncool), I needed 45.1 half-PPR points from Julian Edelman, Gronkowski, and Travis Kelce. I had some inkling that Kelce might outscore the others, but no way would I have place any kind of close-to-even-money wagers on it. Turns out, Kelce was the star, and the New England guys (especially Edelman) let me down.
REVERSE #FFBookie Prop Bet: predict total pts from Edelman, Gronk, and Kelce tonite in a 0.5ppr league. Closest guess makes the column.
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) September 29, 2014
We had guesses ranging from 31.2 to 42.5, but the closest came from #FFBookie participant @jdevol1, who was within 1.2 points.
@RyanHester13 32.5 points #FFBookie
— John DeVol (@jdevol1) September 29, 2014
looking ahead
Last week, I chose Jimmy Graham as the player against whom you don't want to play. While 8-86-1 could be considered pedestrian for Graham - particularly against a bad Dallas defense - it's still a successful night (even if it did happen in garbage time). I also predicted that Khiry Robinson would disappoint. I thought Dallas would be able to score with New Orleans, meaning that Pierre Thomas would be on the field a lot. While Thomas did play a lot of snaps, said snaps didn't result in many touches (just four total). Robinson, on the other hand, had 105 total yards.
The Jordy Nelson Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section
Russell Wilson is known as a very cerebral and prepared player for whom no stage is too large. Giving him 15 days to prep for a terrible Washington pass defense on Monday Night Football is something that could result in fireworks. Start Wilson and his very high floor confidently.
The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section
First of all, allow me to apologize to Mr. Romo for the name of this section. His 262 yards and three touchdowns in primetime last Sunday were fantastic. He still has a couple more of those to go, however, before we rename this section. Considering his [insert air quotes] performance [end air quotes] last week and the fact that he plays against Seattle this week, the easy call here seems to be Kirk Cousins (or any of his receiving options). However, after the start to his season, including last Monday night, the easy selection here is Tom Brady -- especially considering that his opponent is playing some of the best defense in the league this season.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
