Welcome to the Week 15 Review / Week 16 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction.
#FFBookie Matchup Corner
This section debuted last week, and as fantasy football comes to a close (wow, it hurts to write that phrase), matchups and game scripts become more important than ever. Let's go through the Week 16 matchups and examine them for "Shootout Potential" and "Pack It In" Potential." If you're still alive in your season-long league, best of luck in what should be your Super Bowl (to the leagues relying on Week 17, it's just not the right thing to do). If you're not still alive, that's why Daily Fantasy Sports were invented.
Shootout Potential
- Philadelphia at Washington
- Atlanta at New Orleans
- Indianapolis at Dallas
- Denver at CIncinnati
"Pack it In" Potential
- Philadelphia at Washington
- San Diego at San Francisco
- Detroit at Chicago
Philadelphia at Washington appears on both lists, with Washington as the "give-up" candidate. That's a green light on your Philadelphia players - particularly two guys who should've scored touchdowns last week in LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin (McCoy could have had as many as three). Chicago also shows up in this category after a "performance" against New Orleans that had many wondering if they even cared what they were doing.
primetime recap
This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:
- DeMarco Murray
- Drew Brees
- Dez Bryant
This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:
- Jay Cutler
- LeSean McCoy
- Jordan Matthews
Brees' season has been a bit funky, for lack of a better term. Out of the "elite" draft day tier of fantasy quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Brees) Brees was the worst all year, yet he's the only one of the current elite tier (those same guys plus Luck, Brady, and perhaps Roethlisberger) who threw for over 300 yards and had multiple touchdown passes in Week 16.
As for the duds, due to McCoy being pulled at the goal line three times, there were so many "Chip Kelly hates fantasy football" tweets that it would be impossible to embed them all here. Jason Garrett, however, must love fantasy football because his team scored five touchdowns, and his two biggest fantasy stars accounted for ALL of them.
last week at the "book"
"Reverse" #FFBookie
Yours truly made the semifinals of my top league and had one of my surprisingly few #FFBookie "sweat" scenarios. Heading into Sunday night, I was dealing with the following. The first person to respond was quite optimistic, giving me a percentage chance that converted to a -455 favorite:
@RyanHester13 82% win
— Adam Gambrell (@One_Wheel_Drive) December 15, 2014
The next two were a little more in line with the close game in which I thought I was engaged.
@RyanHester13 -105
— MGiraldi (@MGiraldi) December 15, 2014
@RyanHester13 I'd put you +120. Close, game flow of both games determines the winner.
— Derek Willett (@DereksDaycare) December 15, 2014
Obviously, Jeremy Maclin being tackled at the one yard-line hurt, but considering it's a league with distance bonuses for long touchdowns and the score would have been worth 12 points, it was quite frustrating to say the least. I still entered Monday night with the following situation. My first responder was someone new to oddsmaking, which of course leads me to believe that #FFBookie is sweeping the nation.
@RyanHester13 close, but I'd bet on 100 all purpose yards and a TD against the Bears front with Brees struggling. +110? I'm new at this :p
— Daniel Bachmann (@DaBachmann) December 15, 2014
Mr. @DaBachmann did a nice job. By projecting those yardage and TD totals, he had me as a very slight underdog, which the +110 reflected. Our next responder made clear what the #FFBookie really struggles with in the oddsmaking process. Touchdowns are just very hard to predict.
@RyanHester13 It comes down to the touchdown (doesn't it always?) I think Ingram easily clears 100 APY and the TD ... +130
— Fritter (@Rich913) December 15, 2014
Finally, we had one person who said I was a "favorite." The airquotes are present, however, because in a real casino situation, the juice makes a $110 bet yield $100 profit. So this was essentially a "pick 'em" type of proposition.
@RyanHester13 I would say you're -110
— Jake McKenzie (@jtmckenzi) December 15, 2014
Thankfully for me, Ingram hadn't done much prior to his garbage-time (more on that later) scamper, so I was still able to hold on and win my matchup. Thanks to all who participated.
Plenty in Primetime
Long-time #FFBookie enthusiast @jtmckenzi had one of many close and exciting scenarios heading into Sunday Night Football.
@jtmckenzi I think you’re +120. Obviously, could go either way. I have to root against you, though, as a guy who needs Maclin. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 15, 2014
While he went into Sunday a slight underdog (45% to win, according to the odds assigned), he came out a decent-sized favorite (58%).
@jtmckenzi Like your chances! -140. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 15, 2014
By the end of the third quarter, this one came in for our faithful reader. Congratulations.
Parlay Fun
This #FFBookie reader decided to get all thre of his scenarios in an economic fashion, so I turned it into a parlay. Two were definite gimmies, which made this kind of like the "money line" parlays where you pick three 7-10 point favorites to win their games outright -- a safe bet, if such a thing exists.
@m_knudson Getting your money’s worth here. 1) -130. 2) -800. 3) -1500. Parlay of all three pays +110. #FFBookie
— Ryan Hester (@RyanHester13) December 15, 2014
All three of these ended up coming in. That's a nice parlay to hit!
Hard Luck Losers
There were too many scenarios involving Matt Forte to include them all, but he was the only player on Chicago's roster that appeared to be interested in playing football. When the team finally sniffed the endzone in the fourth quarter, it was Forte who was twice tackled inside the three yard-line only to see a pass on second down go for a touchdown to Marquess Wilson. Even on the team's garbage time drive, it was Ka'Deem Carey in the game instead of Forte.
Garbage Time Devastation
Mark Ingram scored with 1:54 left to make the game 31-8. Then Jay Cutler threw a touchdown to Alshon Jeffery, capping a drive on which Jeffery had two catches for 42 yards and said touchdown after going the first 58:13 of the game with two catches for 36 yards. Here's one instance of the havoc garbage time can wreak in our silly little game.
@RyanHester13 cutler had -3 to start the quarter. pic.twitter.com/4uUEYscKnJ
— Jøhn (@SportsByJohn) December 16, 2014
This next poor sap got hosed not only by garbage time but by a silly league rule that doesn't allow any waiver picks in the fantasy postseason. Folks, don't do this. As long as fantasy games are being played, why would the rules be any different based on the week in which they're being played? Also consider the fact that playoff games are even more important, so situations where an owner is forced into a zero is a bad rule.
@RyanHester13 Horrible dynasty defeat. Rosters locked so WR3=0 from Julio/BMarsh. Ingram TD gave ball to Cutler for late TD to lose by 3.
— Ariakis (@Ariakis73) December 16, 2014
Great Call of the Week
You all may remember my friend Russ, who has appeared in this space before. Russ, a Chicago resident, turned down tickets three rows up for last night's game because he didn't want to watch the Bears turn in a half-hearted effort. Going even further, he decided to call it a night early because the game was just that unwatchable for the first three quarters.
@RyanHester13 down by 10+ going into 4th with Forte, Jeffrey, and Cutler vs Brees (started day up 6). Went to bed. Won by 16. Now in finals
— Russ (@Russ3311) December 16, 2014
Nice work, Russ. This just goes to show that fantasy football can sometimes be enjoyed more by not watching the games.
looking ahead
Last week, the selected primetime player was Bryant. His rightful placement as the number one on the "Three Studs of Primetime" list proved this pick to be a very nice one. I also tabbed Marquess Wilson as a Daily Fantasy sleeper and Jimmy Graham to "get right" against Chicago. Wilson had modest receiving totals, but his touchdown ensured that he reached value for his price point in Daily Fantasy. He even helped make a certain Daily Fantasy Sports pro a MILLIONAIRE last night. Graham's nice night was only marred by a lack of a touchdown while fellow tight end Josh Hill caught two.
I had quite the snafu last week by not selecting a poor performer and accidentally leaving in the section from the previous week's New England - San Diego game. My apologies, dear readers. AT least I wasn't wrong.
The Jordy Nelson Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section
Seattle at Arizona isn't very attractive for fantasy options. Marshawn Lynch seems like the best best because Seattle should be winning and controlling the game, but Arizona's run defense is quite good. Because no "sexy" option really jumps off the page -- and because he's overdue for a huge game -- this week's selection is Peyton Manning. Manning has a history of showing up big in primetime, and doing so in this game would be the irony of ironies for his owners who were knocked out of their respective playoffs in either of the last two weeks.
Some other potential options include fellow bounce-back candidate Julius Thomas as he continues to get healthy. Cincinnati's numbers against tight ends have improved, but they haven't face many top options at the position lately. Cincinnati's run defense is also porous, so if you don't buy the Manning call above, C.J. Anderson is a great choice.
The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section
Jeremy Hill had a huge Week 15 game, but Denver's rush defense is very stout. If Denver (favored by 3.5 as of this writing) manages to build a lead, Hill may be spelled by pass-catcher Giovani Bernard more often throughout the evening.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
