Win. Your. League.

Receive 3 Free Downloads More Details

Land of Opportunity: Finding Value in Projected Workload, Part I

Identifying value plays in Fantasy Football by projected opportunity

Fantasy football is about speculation. Whether it's evaluating early-round picks and determining which is less likely to bust or looking at late-round picks and assessing their likelihood to "hit," the owner who builds his team with the most hits and the fewest misses generally comes away with a successful season.

It's often said that a fantasy asset is a combination of opportunity and efficiency. However, one of those factors is more valuable than the other. An efficient player without volume has a defined ceiling; however, a player with a significant role on his team (even if he's inefficient) will continue to give your fantasy team chances to accumulate points.

The purpose of this article is to identify players with more opportunity than their peers at similar ADPs. So we're going to rank players in a metric I'm calling "Expected Opportunity Fantasy Points" (EOFP, which will be described below) and then compare that to Average Draft Position to find players who are outliers in either direction.

The Methodology

Below are the steps I took to calculate EOFP. All fantasy points and rankings considerations were done using PPR scoring. All cut-offs (i.e. top-36, top-48) used fantasy points per game:

  1. Determine fantasy points per target for the top-36 running backs over the last five years
  2. Determine fantasy points per carry for the top-36 running backs over the last five years
  3. Determine fantasy points per target for the top-48 wide receivers over the last five years
  4. Determine fantasy points per target for the top-16 tight ends over the last five years
  5. Determine fantasy points per pass attempt for the top-18 quarterbacks over the last five years
  6. Determine fantasy points per carry for the top-18 quarterbacks over the last five years
  7. Apply the figures above to 2017 projected targets and touches

The results of this assessment are below:

WANT TO SEE THE REST?

The full page you are accessing is only available to our Footballguys Insider PRO subscribers.

In addition to this page, we'll publish about 50,000 more pages of content this season that are just for our Footballguys Insider PROs. It's the ultimate edge to help you WIN YOUR LEAGUE.

ESPN's Matthew Berry says, "Footballguys Insider PRO is the best premium Football only site on the planet." We agree. To see more reasons why the Insider PRO is your ticket to the championship, click HERE.

Registration is simple and in seconds you'll be reading this article plus all the other Footballguys content available only to our Insider PROs. If you're uncertain about your current subscription status, click HERE.

Plus we have a MONEY BACK GUARANTEE so there's nothing to lose.

SIGN UP NOW and let's WIN YOUR LEAGUE.