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Atlanta
I am big on the Falcons passing and receiving game, but their four-headed committee at running back isn't going to give any fantasy clarity to any one back anytime soon. Steven Jackson has looked good one minute and he can't gain the edge the next. Devonta Freeman has struggled to get any traction especially with 11 carries for 12 yards against the Buccaneers when the offense could do no wrong. That has me concered about his vision and patience to find the open hole and exploit what is given to him. Antone Smith has done more than the others and I wouldn't be shocked to see his carries increase. Roddy White with a hamstring injury is not good news. Even though it's a mild strain, any hamstring injury for White makes me think his injury label from 2013 might be more than just a fluke. After years of healthy seasons, another hamstring injury right off the bat is not a good sign. Like Julio Jones, if White is healthy, you play him. Monitor his status as the week progresses. Keep in mind, the game at Minnesota is not in a dome, but at TCF Bank Stadium, home of the Univeristy of Minnesota. It's an outdoor stadium, where Atlanta has historically struggled. In the same breath, it's also a new environment for the Vikings. I like the Atlanta regulars in the receiving game, but not as much as I would if it were a home game.
Baltimore
Did Lorenzo Taliaferro (18-91-1) do enough to supplant Bernard Pierce who missed the game with a thigh injury? I'm thinking, no but Taliaferro should at least see more reps than he did before. This week the Panthers come to town, who were recently gashed by the Steelers ground game. If Carolina can't figure out their run defense woes, this could be a big game for the Ravens running backs. I would not be surprised to see Steve Smith have a big game against his former team. He's already been productive with two 100-yard games in the first three contests. The injury to Dennis Pitta (hip) may be too much to come back from, especially because it was the second time he injured the same hip. Something doesn't seem right for him to suffer that injury on non-contact. We know he is lost for the season, but it could be career threatening. I don't know what is up with Torrey Smith, perhaps the loss of Pitta will mean more for him, but there is definitely some concern with his lack of production. Pitta's loss should mean more for Owen Daniels, but he himself needs to stay healthy to be effective. Daniels knows Gary Kubiak's system well and should benefit in the offense going forward, but I worry about his injury history.
Buffalo
I mentioned last week, let's see what Sammy Watkins does for an encore, before we call him an every week start. He managed 2 receptions for 19 yards against San Diego which is definitely not a strong game. That's like rolling a gutter ball after a strike. On the plus side the Bills clearly have an interest in trying to get the ball to Watkins, so the hype is definitely warranted. He's a somewhat risky flex option right now, but with some tweaking of his routes and some luck on his side, there is a very good chance he develops into a huge part of the offense, which should yield good fantasy value. It took Keenan Allen a few weeks to get going last year. I could easily see Watkins on a similar path. However, Allen has Philip Rivers, while Watkins has EJ Manuel. There's a big difference there, which could stunt his development into a bigger fantasy play.
Carolina
The Panthers have issues with their running game. Jonathan Stewart (knee), Mike Tolbert (leg) and Fozzy Whitaker (thigh) are all nursing injuries. DeAngelo Williams (quad) is hoping to be back next week against a physical Ravens team. If he can't get much traction, the only other option is Darrin Reaves, who has little to no experience. The Panthers running game is among the worst in the league and injuries have been a big reason for that. Cam Newton himself (ankle, ribs) hasn't been running much which has also aided to the low ranking. This is a big concern for their offensive rhythm, because Newton isn't the type of quarterback who can be successful throwing the ball all the time. The lack of a running game has resulted in increased passes of which Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen have benefited. I don't make much of Philly Brown's 7 receptions last week vs. Pittsburgh. He was filling in for Jerricho Cotchery (thigh) and should see a reduction in targets going forward.
Chicago
I would definitely buy low on Matt Forte. He hasn't been elite in the first three games, but he's still getting receptions in Marc Trestman's offense, which we fully expect to continue. The yardage will surely come. I don't see a needle pointing down on Forte at all. It's just a matter of time before he takes off. Martellus Bennett is turning into a very good tight end start. He has scored a touchdown in each game this year and has emerged as a strong tight end start. Teams are so concerned with stopping Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, that Bennett often sees limited coverage. What's best is that Jay Cutler knows this and will throw to him without hesitation.
Dallas
This Dallas offense is all about DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant. Jason Witten and Terrance Williams are sprinkled in here and there, but it's primarily 29 and 88 making plays. Murray's receptions are starting to increase and if that continues to spike, he'll be a candidate for the best fantasy running back this year. Bryant's numbers could skyrocket if Tony Romo's passing yards increase. Murray's success is big reason why Romo has had two games of 220 yards passing or less. Those numbers could see an increase this week vs. New Orleans, especially if the Saints dictate a high scoring game, which is what most expect, including Vegas with an O/u of 53.5.
Detroit
At first glance the fantasy value of both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell looks appealing, however this year one has performed well and the other struggles. There doesn't appear to be any rhyme of reason as to which one flourishes, however I would be more inclined to play either at home, as opposed to on the road. The true value is if/when one gets hurt then the other benefits. For that reason alone, they both are worthy of a roster spot. This week's match up at New York Jets is not a favorable one for the ground game, in my opinion. I do however see the passing game in a much betrer light. The Jets secondary is a work in progress, which Matthew Stafford should exploit. Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate should have big game as a result.
Green Bay
I am starting to get a little concerned with Eddie Lacy and the offensive line is partly to blame. My gut says Lacy will turn things around, but until then we could see an increase in carries for James Starks. Aaron Rodgers has five touchdown passes, however he also has two sub 200 yard games in the first three contests. History suggests he will turn things around. His first three games were against good defenses and pass rushes (at SEA, NYJ and at DET). I expect things to improve for Rodgers and the Packers offense at Chicago this week. Jordy Nelson is by far Rodgers' top receiver and it doesn't look like it will change anytime soon. He has nearly double the number of targets (37) and receptions (23) than the next closest Packer, Randall Cobb (21/14).
Houston
It's not a coincidence that the Texans lost when Arian Foster was out of the lineup. Foster flat out propels the offense. When he's out, the offense struggles to find consistency. Monitor Foster's status as the week progresses. Hopefully his hamstring will be healthy enough to get him back on the field vs. Buffalo. DeAndre Hopkins has scored in each of the first two games and has a 6-reception, 100 yard effort in Week 3. He's quickly becoming a viable fantasy start on a weekly basis. He has a 68% reception percentage with a 17.5 yards per reception average.
Indianapolis
Andrew Luck is the top ranked fantasy quarterback after three weeks. He has nine touchdown passes with another on the ground. He has two 300+ yard games to go along with the scoring barrage. He's looking like a good bet to contiue his strong pace. Ahmad Bradshaw's needle is pointing up and Trent Richardson's is pointing down. Bradshaw is making plays both as a rusher and receiver in the Colts offense. He was a great value play in daily games in the first three weeks of the season, but the word is out that he is going to be a solid contriubtor. He's putting up excellent numbers that you likely obtained as a RB3 or later in drafts. Dwayne Allen is starting to get some attention. He has two scores in three games so far and is looking like his role will start to increase even more. He's a great find if he's still on your waiver wire.
Jacksonville
Get ready for the Blake Bortles era to begin. I'm excited to see what Bortles can do for the Jaguars offense. Guys like Cecil Shorts, Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson get a slight bump in my opinion. I was never high on Toby Gerhart entering this season and now it appears my instincts were right. The running game could eventually see some light, but right now the team is in such a tailspin defensively that nothing is getting established on the ground.
Kansas City
Jamaal Charles is a special back who can make plays that other backs can't. Having said that, Knile Davis will occupy his role for as long as he is out. What that means is plenty of carries and targets in the Chiefs offense. If Charles is out, Davis is a must start, plain and simple. If/when Charles plays, Davis becomes more of an afterthought. I think he will still see some action in relief of Charles, but the fantasy value drops off considerably when Charles is active. Travis Kelce's offensive snaps has jumped from 18% to 37% to 65% in the first three weeks. In short, he's getting more playing time and sooner rather than later, he'll be a big contributor in the Chiefs offense. He's already showing promise with 10 catches on 15 targets which is second most on the team behind Donnie Avery.
Miami
Lamar Miller is looking like a decent RB2 option in Knowshon Moreno's absence. I would feel comfortable expecting good results from him if he receives the bulk of the team's carries - which looks to be the case as long as Moreno is out. Miller has two games of 4 catches and he's coming off a 100-yard effort on just 15 carries. This week the Dolphins play at Oakland, which is a good match up, especially for the ground game. Mike Wallace is clearly Ryan Tannehill's favorite target and that should continue going forward. There are whispers that Tannehill is on the hot seat, which might be a ploy to get him to play better. Matt Moore would be the next in line if Joe Philbin decides to make a move.
Minnesota
Some injury news for the Vikings include the loss of quarterback Matt Cassel (foot), which has brought forth the Teddy Bridgewater era. I'm not sure what we can expect from Bridgewater, but he showed periods of decent play in the preseason. There will be some growing pains that could result in lower numbers across the board from Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings. At the same time, the Vikings will have to do without Kyle Rudolph (sports hurnia) for about six weeks. Patterson and Jennings will see more targets as a result. I'm not loving the fantasy value in Minnesota, but there is room for surprises, especially if Bridgewater picks things up quickly and is able to convert in Norv Turner's offense.
New England
The one constant for New England in all three games this year has been Julian Edelman. He has caught 78% of the passes that have come his way, compared to 48% of the passes intended for Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots offense in general has struggled with the main culprit being Tom Brady's ineffectivness under center. Perhaps his calf is bothering him to the point where he can't be effective. If he struggles this week at Kansas City on Monday night, don't hesitate to bench him for a better option in Week 5. I would also look to proactively add a quarterback like Kirk Cousins or Blake Bortles in the event Brady continues to underperform.
New Orleans
The Saints are marching again thanks to the W in the win column and this week they play at Dallas. Brandin Cooks and Jimmy Graham are the two table setters on offense and although Pierre Thomas has 12 receptions in three games, the passing frequency to running backs has dropped compared to years past. The primary reason behind that is likely due to the loss of Darren Sproles. Marques Colston has seen a drop in targets and overall numbers in the first three weeks, but he also has drawn some tough coverage from the slot corner. He should see an uptick in production this week.
NY Giants
Larry Donnell continues to be a big part of the Giants offense. I don't see his involvement going away anytime soon. Donnell leads the team in targets (23) and receptions (18) and his emergence in the Giants offense is one of the bigger surprises in fantasy this year. Another surprise, perhaps to a lesser degree is the success of Rashad Jennings. Those who drafted Jennings in the third or fourth round are probably sitting fairly pretty right now. I can also see his reception totals increasing in the coming week.
NY Jets
I think it's safe to consider Chris Johnson a fantasy afterthought at this time. He isn't seeing a lot of consecutive carries which is affecting his rhythm. Chris Ivory has emerged as the primary rushing threat and I don't see that changing, without an injury. Ivory's rushing style is equivalent to a runaway freight train. He delivers a powerful punch to opposing defenses and often gains yards after contact. I can see his involvement and a potential emergence coming for Ivory. I will say that his running style is conducive to injury, which is definitely something to be concerned about, especially if his touches increase.
Oakland
James Jones is quietly turning into a fantasy consideration for your lineup. He has two touchdowns in three games and he's leading the team in targets (22) and receptions (15). Those aren't super numbers, but he's becoming a big part of the offense, which adds to his value.
Philadelphia
The Eagles have a tough match up at San Francisco this week. I don't see the 49ers making it easy for Chip Kelly's crew but I also don't think their defense is the same caliber as it was in seasons past. The Eagles offense is loaded with fantasy talent and production. I am pleasantly surprised to see Nick Foles have three consecutive 300 yard games and Jeremy Maclin to have post three games with a touchdown. The needle is pointing down on Riley Cooper while it's pointing up for rookie Jordan Matthews. Darren Sproles is proving that he still has plenty of fuel in the tank and Philadelphia is showing that they know exactly how to utilize his talents.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers looked impressive against what we thought was going to be a strong Panthers defense. LeVeon Bell has emerged into a weekly start regardless of the opponent. The fast-paced, quick strike offense with timely rushes from a capable back like Bell, was effective against Carolina. I would be shocked if that didn't continue against future opponents. It keeps defenses from pressuring Ben Roethlisberger and it in turn elevates the sheer numbers for players like Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. It's just a matter of time before Wheaton sees some end zone receptions. If you are looking to bolster your quarterback position, Roethlisberger is an excellent one to target in a trade. He hasn't set the world on fire yet, but he's in a good position to excel going forward.
San Diego
Antonio Gates fell back to earth this week at Buffalo, so perhaps it's not 2006 all over again. In the same breath I don't see him as a one-week wonder either. Philip Rivers clearly has a great deal of trust in his veteran tight end. Teams may be scheming against him more, but when others start to produce, the tide will turn back in his favor. This week's match up vs. Jacksonville is one to exploit. Start all of your Chargers including Malcom Floyd and even Eddie Royal, who appears to be having his annual spark in production, followed by weeks of inconsistency. This week might still be his upswing, but the downswing is coming. The Jaguars have allowed 34, 41, and 44 points in each game so far. Rivers is a great start this week.
Tennessee
Bishop Sankey's role in the offense has increased, which is a good sign for his 2014 outlook. The offense has shifted towards giving him more carries and so far he has done well. I expect that to continue as we go further into the season. Right now the passing game consists of Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright with some Justin Hunter sprinkled in here and there. Hunter's value is inside the red zone where he can use his height to his advantage, we just haven't seen many opportunities for him yet, but they are coming. Kendall Wright is a consistent fantasy option, especially in PPR leagues. I don't see his involvement going away anytime soon. If the Titans ever get a positive return from their quarterback position, Wright automatically has the potential to be the next Antonio Brown.
Washington
Washington is loaded with fantasy options and Kirk Cousins is looking like the guy capable of getting the ball to talented group. Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson and the plug-n-play tight end of the week are all good fantasy options. Alfred Morris is converting on his opportunities and should continue to see plenty of goal line chances. The eyebrows are definitely raised when talking about this team and what they are capable of. It's amazing that it took an injury to Robert Griffin to unveil the potential of Jay Gruden's team. I honestly don't think the job is Griffin's if/when he returns to health this season.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
