Arizona
Arizona is limping into the playoffs, but they keep winning. They are down to their third string quarterbck (Ryan Lindley), who will be facing Seattle this week. The fantasy value on the team as a whole is bleak at best. Kerwynn Williams is expected to see the majority of carries, but again the match up is not a good one. On the plus side, if you're looking for a silver lining in this situation, Williams was targeted five times last week. Both he and Larry Fitzgerald could see a fair share of targets with a game plan that will likely revolve around high percentage passes closer to the line of scrimmage.
Atlanta
The Falcons play at New Orleans this week in a pivotal division match up. The big story is that of Julio Jones and his injured hip. Reports suggest he will suit up this week after being inactive in Week 15, but there are questions as to how effective he'll be. Also, if Jones plays (or doesn't play) what does that mean for Harry Douglas? First of all, Roddy White is the big winner here with Douglas a close second. I would be surprised if Jones can return to form and be a big part of the offense. It's this thinking that leads me to believe White and Douglas are both good starts this week, regardless of whether or not Jones plays.
Baltimore
Baltimore plays at HOU this week. The Texans are a middle of the road defense with even better results at home. This is not one of those match ups that screams value for Baltimore. Houston has allowed only two rushing touchdowns to running backs since Week 6 and only six all year. That's not good news for Justin Forsett. Torrey Smith (knee) played last week, but was ineffective. I would not be surprised to see him gimpy this week as well. Steve Smith and Owen Daniels figure to gain the most with Torrey Smith more or less a decoy. Monitor Smith's status this week to see if he can be a full participant in practice. If so, consider him an option this week against a somewhat shaky Texans secondary.
Buffalo
Playing at Oakland is a game the Bills should win, especially after taking care of business against the Packers last week. This is a good match up for the Bills passing game, but I like the running game more. Guess who is returning for the Bills this week? C.J. Spiller. Monitor his practice schedule to see if he is good to play this week. If Spiller is active, expect him to take some touches away from Fred Jackson. I have to think the passing game rebounds, but I'm not high on any one player in particular. Sammy Watkins could surprise with a decent game but he's hard to rely on with up and down performances all year.
Carolina
The Panthers seem to be riding a wave of success lately with the Browns coming to town this week. I like Jonathan Stewart in this game, especially with Cleveland averaging 148 rushing yards allowed in the last three games with 1.3 rushing touchdowns allowed per game. My hunch is that we'll see Derek Anderson at least one more game to give Cam Newton a chance to completely heal from his back injury. Anderson was effective in getting the ball to the Panthers two play makers, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. Both are excellent starts this week regardless of who starts at quarterback.
Cincinnati
Everyone is buzzing about Jeremy Hill and for good reason. He has risen to the occasion several times this year and it doesn't look like it will stop anytime soon. The Bengals host the Broncos this week who have been great against the run lately (mostly due to teams needing to pass). Having said that, they have some key injuries on defense, particularly linebacker. The loss at linebacker could have a negative effect on their run defense, which Hill would likely take advantage of. I don't love this match up for Hill. It all depends on the game flow. A.J. Green should have plenty of targets, especially if Denver takes a commanding lead.
Cleveland
The Johnny Manziel era has begun and Cleveland is essentially married to him for better or for worse. I still believe Manizel can be a productive quarterback, however the growing pains may outweigh the big plays in the early going. After losing 30-0 at home against Cinncinati, Cleveland will travel to Carolina to face the Panthers and their improved defense. Josh Gordon owners have to be sick to their stomach thinking they waited all year long for sub-par production. A Manziel-led offense may only have pass attempts in the teens, which doesn't help Gordon's outlook, or anyone for that matter. If Manziel struggles again (in his first road game), the running game could also suffer. Unsustainable drives isn't good news for anyone. Isaiah Crowell is a marginal flex option with a chance to break a decent run against the Panthers defense.
Chicago
So much for the Bears offense being a formidable threat. The Bears porous offensive line is not doing Jay Cutler any favors. Cutler has been bad, but that offensive line has been dreadful lately. This week the Lions defense visits Soldier Field, which scares me if I had to rely on any Bears offensive players, including Matt Forte. We could easily see more of the same horrendous offense against Detroit. Tread lightly with Bears starters this week. End of season fever has already struck Chicago. If they find themselves trailing early we could see more players quitting and that's not good for fantasy.
Dallas
In case you haven't heard, DeMarco Murray had surgery this week to repair a broken bone in his hand. It's hard to think he'll be able to play, but so far he has not been ruled out. If he misses time, Dallas will likely go to a committee approach with Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar. Randle is the one that I have the most interest in. He is not the same type of bruising back that Murray is, but he can still make plays and move the ball well. The match up against the Colts is a decent one. I like Tony Romo in this game, especially if the running game struggles and the offense relies on the passing game to move the ball. Dez Bryant should get good yardage, but I also think Jason Witten will have a decent game.
Denver
Peyton Manning has three touchdown passes total in the last three games. He also has topped 200 yards passing only once in that span. The reason - the running game has thrived lately, much in part to C.J. Anderson's success. As Manning goes, so does his compliment of receivers. Which Denver offense will we see this week at Cincinnati? You can't sit Manning, Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders, but there is definitely some concern. Julius Thomas has been ineffective since his return from an ankle injury. I'd put money on him still having lingering issues with his ankle, which is keeping him from being productive on game day. Could this week be the week he squashes those thoughts? Possibly, but I wouldn't risk starting him until he proves he can be a threat.
Detroit
The Lions play the woeful Bears this week, so load up on the Lions. Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Joique Bell figure to be the ones who take advantage of the Bears defense. Don't forget about the Lions Def/ST against Jay Cutler. There's not much to add here, other than enjoy the match up. The Bears have allowed 323 yards passing per game and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game in the last three games. Throw in an additional 123 rushing yards per game allowed with 1.7 rushing touchdowns allowed in the same span of three weeks. Be confident starting your Lions play makers.
Green Bay
The Packers have a tasty match up at Tampa Bay this week. Aaron Rodgers should be able to take advantage of the Tampa Two defense, but he actually has played poorly in the two games at Tampa Bay in his career. I'm not buying into the negative hype surrounding Rodgers history against the Bucs. The Tampa defense has been hit hard with injuries and if other teams can have success against them, surely Rodgers can too. Feel confident in your Packers this week.
Houston
Houston is down to their third quarterback, after Ryan Fitzpatrick was lost to a broken leg last week. Tom Savage enters the fray with a favorable match up against the Ravens and their severely hampered secondary. Can Savage be a down field threat and who will he target? In just over three quarters, Savage targeted DeAndre Hopkins nine times, but keep in mind that was without Andre Johnson, who was inactive with a concussion. Johnson is expected to return this week, which should help Savage. The Ravens run defense has been strong this year, so don't expect big numbers from Arian Foster. If anything the play this week is the receiving corps of DeAndre Hopkins and/or Andre Johnson. Their success completely hinges on the efforts and ability of Tom Savage. Will Houston let him throw at will or will the offensive playbook be greatly reduced with more high percentage pass attempts? Monitor this game plan as the week progresses. UPDATE: Tom Savage (knee) is out this week. The Texans have scrambled to acquire former quarterback Case Keenum from the Rams practice squad. They also have Thad Lewis who could spot start. The Texans were already behind the 8-ball. This latest news does not improve matters and it's hurting the value of their wide receivers, who have a primo match up vs. Baltimore this week.
Indianapolis
The Colts play at Dallas this week. T.Y. Hilton left the game last week with a hamstring strain. It doesn't appear to be serious but it could still bother him to the point where he is not an effective option. Keep tabs on his situation to see if he practices in full on Friday. Dallas has been vulnerable agaisnt the run lately, so we could see a spark in production from Dan Herron or even Trent Richardson. My money is on Herron as the better option. Reggie Wayne, Donte Moncrief, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen could see an uptick in value if Hilton is limited.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is down to Toby Gerhart at running back and the match up vs. Tennessee at home on Thursday night is a good one. I like Gerhart as a potential flex option, especially now that Denard Robinson (foot) is out for the year. Blake Bortles (foot) is questionable in this game and the early week doesn't help his chances. It's possible that we could see Chad Henne under center. Keep an eye on this situation, although my outlook for the receiving corps isn't much different if Henne is quarterback. Cecil Shorts, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee are decent flex options against the severely wounded Titans. Remember it was Henne who connected with Allen Hurns on the two long touchdowns in Week 1, plus the match up against Tennessee is one of the better matchups for the Jaguars this year.
Kansas City
Jamaal Charles is banged up with knee and ankle injuries but he continues to play on. He split carries with Knile Davis last week which tells me he may not be fully healed. The Chiefs play at Pittsburgh which favors the passing game, if only the Chiefs had a strong passing game. The Steelers have allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game over the last games with an average of three touchdown passes. But, the Chiefs are not a strong passing team, as evidenced by 0 touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Travis Kelce, on the other hand, is someone to consider. Will Kansas City be able to run the ball effectively with either Charles or Davis? That's the key to this being a respectable game. If they find themselves trailing early it could be a long day.
Miami
Miami hosts Minnesota this week. The players that I have interest in are Jarvis Landry, Mike Wallace and Lamar Miller. Landry is tied with Odel Beckham with 71 receptions to lead all rookies and Mike Wallace has 8 touchdowns which leads the team. I am intrigued by Miller because the Vikings run defense has been poor lately, allowing 132 yards rushing per game over the last three games. The home field advantage also plays into my interest in Miller. If he has success as the team's primary rusher he could easily have a respectable game. Consider him a strong flex option with a great match up at home.
Minnesota
Teddy Bridgewater has back to back 300 yard games. Let that sink in for a minute. His primary receiving threats have been Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright, Kyle Rudolph and Greg Jennings. The Vikings have played well recently, but this week's match up for the passing game is not a good one. The running game though is a different story, at least on paper it is. Miami has been horrendous against the run lately allowing 189 rushing yards per game over the last three. I have a hunch the Miami run defense will show improvement this week. Maybe it's the lack of a true stud running back for Minnesota? I don't see Matt Asiata in the same light as other backs. As good of a match up as this appears, I'm not loving it for Asiata.
New England
The Patriots play at the Jets this week. This looks like an easy win for Tom Brady and the Patriots, however something tells me the pesky Jets will have something planned for Brady and company. I still think they will win, but I don't foresee a blow out victory. Julian Edelman has 33 receptions in the last four games with two touchdowns. He is Brady's go-to threat right now, in addition to Rob Gronkowski. If Brady can get good protection, those two, along with Brandon LaFell should have decent numbers. Jonas Gray had 11 carries last week to lead all New England rushers. Could we see more from Gray this week or is it LeGarrette Blount's turn to be the pile mover? It's anyone's guess, which makes it hard to consider either as a strong fantasy option. UPDATE: Julian Edelman has been diagnosed with a concussion and may not be able to play this week. Monitor this status to see if he passes the league's concussion protocols. If he is out, Brandon LaFell gets a bump, but also Shane Vereen could see more short-yardage receptions.
New Orleans
The Saints pulled up their bootstraps and played a great game against Chicago to take control of the NFC South. Something tells me the Saints may have turned the corner. We'll see if the strong play continues this week vs. Atlanta. New Orleans has lost four straight home games, so it's anyone's guess which team shows up. The match up against Atlanta favors Drew Brees in a big way. The numbers suggest another 300 yard game with plenty of opportunity for his supporting cast of Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston and even Nick Toon. Mark Ingram is also someone to strongly consider. Last week he scored his first touchdown since Week 9.
NY Giants
As I said last week, continue to ride the Odell Beckham wagon until it stops. Right now that wagon is on an open track traveling down hill with no obstacles in it's path. Eli Manning has confidence in his young receiver to make plays and he's giving him every opportunity to do so. The match up at St. Louis is not a strong one for the Giants, due to the pressing Rams pass rush. I can see Manning having difficulties if he doesn't get adequate protection. The Rams have not allowed a passing touchdown since Week 12 and have not allowed an opposing quarterback to have more than one touchdown pass since Week 7. This isn't a good match up for Manning (and Beckham for that matter), so be prepared for a potential passing drought.
NY Jets
The Jets have a great passing match up this week against New England, but somehow I don't see Geno Smith taking to the air, at least not effectively. In the last home game, the Jets ran the ball at will against the Dolphins with great success. Could that be the plan for Rex Ryan against New England? Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson could see significant action against New England, especially if they find early success. Eric Decker is coming off a 100-yard game last week at Tennessee. He could see decent production if the Jets find themselves trailing big in the second half.
Oakland
The Raiders host the Bills this week who just thwarted Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. As good as Buffalo was last week, I see a let down from them this week at Oakland. Latavius Murray should see plenty of rushing attempts in this game, especially if he is able to find early success. I see this playing out as a tightly contested game with the team with the better running game being the victor. Consider Murray and James Jones as a stretch-flex option. Mychal Rivera has back to back games with 7 catches. He is definitely a startable option at tight end, especially in PPR leagues.
Philadelphia
Mark Sanchez has not been a top tier quarterback in the last few games, but that could change this week against Washington who has allowed three touchdown passes per game over the last three. The good match up also benefits Jeremy Maclin as well as Jordan Matthews, despite the fact that he had no catches last week. In Week 3, Matthews scored twice against Washington with eight catches. Granted Nick Foles was the quarterback back then, but it still shows his effectiveness against Washington's secondary. LeSean McCoy has tailed off some recently, but any week could yield different results. Consider McCoy a low end RB1 start this week.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers are firing on all cylinders on offense with a great match up against Kansas City this week, especially for LeVeon Bell and the ground game. The running game's success could have an effect on the passing game, but I still like the chances of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown having another big game. Let the Steelers offense take you to the trophy.
San Diego
The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen (collarbone/ankle) for the rest of the year. Filling the void will be Malcom Floyd, Eddie Royal, Antonio Gates and also Brandon Oliver. The Chargers play at San Francisco this week. I expect to see a lot from Brandon Oliver in this game. He will be the swiss army knife weapon especially without their number one receiving threat. I can also see this game featuring Eddie Royal in the slot. I would take a gamble on Oliver as a flex option. I like his chances of getting 4-5 receptions if not more, plus rushing totals.
Seattle
Seattle is looking to take care of business against the division-leading Cardinals this week. Arizona is dealing with injuries at quarterback which makes the Seattle Def/ST a must start in all formats. I expect Arizona's defense to be on their A game at home, which makes this a tough match up for Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. You can't bench Lynch, but I'm not expecting him to have a big game. How will Russell Wilson handle the Cardinals blitz packages? If Arizona can keep him in the pocket, they will have a good chance to keep him at bay. I see a hard fought game with Seattle eventually winning in the end, with little in terms of fantasy production.
San Francisco
The 49ers have scored 16, 17, 3, 13 and 7 points in their last five games. That's not good for fantasy purposes. Frank Gore (concussion) and Carlos Hyde (knee/back) are banged up. If anyone will play this week, it's probably Hyde, but keep tabs on his practice schedule. If Hyde shows positive signs, consider him a flex option, but I'm a leery on starting any 49ers right now. This team is in flux with too many question marks. I'd look elsewhere.
St. Louis
The Rams have been winning with defense lately while the offense plays second fiddle. Tre Mason has emerged as the team's go-to rushing threat with a decent match up this week vs. the Giants. Mason could see significant touches in this game, especially if he's effective early. Kenny Britt and Stedman Bailey are potential flex options but I'm not sold on Shaun Hill putting up big enough numbers to render his receivers a fantasy threats. It's possible that we could see a stray touchdown pass, but my main interest is in Mason.
Tampa Bay
The Bucs have scored over 17 points in only one of the last nine games. This week they host the Packers. I don't expect them to put up much of a fight on defense, which means they'll be in comeback mode most of the game. This benefits Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, who could see significant targets with an opportunity for a touchdown or two. I'd stay away from all other options and don't look that far into Doug Martin who surprised with a decent game at Carolina last week.
Tennessee
The Titans are running on empty right now with injuries on both sides of the ball to back up their inconsistent play. The early Thursday game at Jacksonville doesn't help much at all. We could see Charlie Whitehurst starting if Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) is unable to go. The Titans lost Jake Locker to another shoulder injury. He is lost for the year. Kendall Wright is still dealing with a sore hand and Delanie Walker is hampered by a knee injury. I would seriously look elsewhere for fantasy help this week. Jacksonville may have their best game of the year this week. I see them winning this game going away.
Washington
Colt McCoy (neck) is out for the year, which opens the door for Robert Griffin to get the start. Griffin showed moments of promise last week, but he is still struggling, especially when defenses know the pass is coming. Look for Washington to establish the running game against Philadelphia. Alfred Morris could have decent fantasy numbers. The Eagles have allowed 129 rushing yards per game over the last three with just under two rushing touchdowns per game. DeSean Jackson (leg) played last week but was ineffective with just three short catches. I expect to see more from him this week against his former team. Pierre Garcon has been a disappointment this year, however his 16 targets in the last two weeks leads the team. The match up against Philadelphia definitely favors Jackson, but Garcon could also find some success as well.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
