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Arizona
The fantasy value in Arizona is dwindling as we speak and regardless of who you think might take over for Andre Ellington (sports hernia/hip), the next two match ups are at STL, and vs SEA. Not exactly a perfect scenario for fantasy value. Arizona has scored only 14, 3, 18 and 17 points in the last four games. Last week Kerwynn Williams (of all people) became the first Cardinal to rush for 100 yards this season. He will get first crack at running back this week at STL, but I don't like the match up at all, plus we should see Stepfan Taylor getting some carries as well.
Atlanta
The Falcons host the Steelers this week and they could be without their superstar receiver Julio Jones who suffered a hip injury late in the game against Green Bay. That was after he torched the Packers secondary for 11 catches for 259 yards and 1 touchdown. Keep an eye on his practice schedule this week to see if he can go against the Steelers, which would be a good match up, especially at home in the dome. My guess is that he will play, but we'll see how things progress. If he's out, look for Roddy White and Harry Douglas to pick up the slack.
Baltimore
Justin Forsett is peaking at the right time. He now has four consecutive games with at least a rushing touchdown or 100 yards rushing. He has five touchdowns in that span and next week's match up vs. Jacksonville is music to the ears of his owners. If you have Forsett, you're in good shape to keep the momentum flowing. Torrey Smith suffered late swelling in his knee just after inactives were declared. He played in the game, but was mostly a decoy. As a result, Steve Smith racked up the receptions and yardage. Monitor Torrey Smith's status this week to see if his health improves. Both he and Steve Smith could be legit starts this week vs. Jacksonville. Kamar Aiken is someone to consider as a stretch-flex option, especially if Torrey Smith is out this week. Aiken was targeted 7 times, catching 6 passes for 65 yards and a touchdown against Miami. He has sleeper potential if Smith is out.
Buffalo
Sammy Watkins appears to be back to health after his 7 catch, 127 yard performance at Denver. That was Watkins' first 100 yard effort since Week 8 and fourth of the season. Watkins will have the opportunity to tee off on the Packers secondary this week in Buffalo. Remember, Green Bay could not contain Julio Jones last week, so this is a positive match up for Watkins as well as Kyle Orton, who is coming off a 300-yard passing game, his second of the year. Fred Jackson was a huge part of the game plan against Denver handling short-ranged, high percentage passes. Jackson caught 10, albeit for only 37 yards. Look for him to be involved heavily next week. Chris Hogan is showing some skills over the last few games. He has scored in each of the last two games and finished with 7 catches for 54 yards last week. He's a stretch flex this week with his needle pointing up.
Carolina
The Panthers have been known to turn up the intensity late in the season with their backs against the wall. They did just that and more Sunday at New Orleans. The news of Cam Newton's car accident on Tuesday is a tough blow for the Newton owners. He will most likely be out this week with a back injury. It is unknown how long he'll be sidelined, but it could be through Week 16, which would essentially end his fantasy run this year. Derek Anderson will take over at quarterback and keep in mind, it was Anderson who played and beat the Bucs in Tampa in Week 1. Anderson mostly utilized Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin in that game, tossing a touchdown to each. I think we'll see a heavy dose of the running game this week with timely throws from Anderson. Jonathan Stewart definitely deserves more playing time, but the early word is the DeAngelo Williams (hand) will also see some action.
Cincinnati
A.J. Green has dominated the receiving game for Cincinnati lately. He has 39 targets with 27 receptions and 2 touchdowns in the last three games. The next closest receiver is Jermiane Gresham, who has only 15 targets (12 receptions) in the same span. The Bengals are looking to get revenge on the Browns, who spanked them in their own house in Week 10, 24-3. Joe Haden kept Green in check in that game, limiting him to 3 catches for 23 yards. I have a feeling that narrative will be difference this week, but looking back at 2013, Green had 2 receptions for 7 yards and 7 receptions for 51 yards. I expect both teams to keep the score tight with the winner being decided late in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland
Isaiah Crowell has scored a touchdown in 6 of the 11 games in which he has at least 2 carries. His consistency in finding the end zone has been high, even if his yardage totals aren't strong. Crowell faces a Bengals run defense that allowed 185 yards rushing to LeVeon Bell last week, not to mention 345 yards passing to Ben Roethlisberger. Johnny Manziel is slated to get his first pro start and many are wondering how he'll do getting the ball to Josh Gordon. Brian Hoyer struggled to get the job done last week, which is why Manziel's path to the field is sooner, rather than later. I will be surprised if he doesn't latch onto Gordon in this game. I can see two touchdowns from Manziel with one being a rushing touchdown. He's a low end QB1 this week in my opinion. I believe we'll be pleasantly surprised with the results.
Chicago
The Bears lost Brandon Marshall for the year with a back/rib injury, but that means Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett will see an increase in opportunity and production as a result. Chicago hosts the Saints this week, who have played poorly at home and even worse on the road. The Saints run defense has been a major area of concern over the last few weeks averaging 196 rushing yards allowed with 1.7 rushing touchdowns allowed in the last three games. In short - start Matt Forte. I like the Bears chances to put up excellent numbers in this game. Jay Cutler, Forte, Jeffery and Bennett all are legit fantasy starts this week. Load up.
Dallas
The Cowboys play Philadelphia for the second time in three weeks. As bad as the Eagles dismantled Dallas in Dallas, I have a feeling this game will be tighter. What has worked for Dallas this year is the involvement of DeMarco Murray. He was heavily used last week and the Cowboys won fairly easily. I have a hard time believing Dallas will stop going to that well, as long as it's working. Murray has 17 receptions in the last three games (tied with Dez Bryant) over the last three weeks in addition to his 376 yards rushing. I envision a 28-24 type of game with plenty of fantasy potential.
Denver
Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas laid a goose egg last week with C.J. Anderson taking care of business. Anderson remains the stalwart running back who is leading a lot of teams to the promised land with tremendous, Jamaal Charles-like fantasy playoff performances. I expect Manning and company to bounce back this week at San Diego, but if the results aren't up to par again this week, I won't be that surprised. Julius Thomas (ankle) was active last week, but he didn't see the field, contrary to the hopes of everyone who expected differently. An injury that has kept him out of the last three games tells me that even when he returns, he may still be hobbled by that ankle for longer than we think. Remember Roddy White last year? Tread lightly with Julius Thomas this week unless he looks awfully good in practice.
Detroit
The Lions play their third consecutive home game, where the first two resulted in back to back 300+ yard passing games for Matthew Stafford. Calvin Johnson is coming off 11-146-2 and 8-158-1 with the Vikings up next. He missed the first game against Minnesota with an ankle injury. Joique Bell has come on strong recently with over 100 total yards in each of the last two games with four touchdowns. Reggie Bush is becoming less of a weapon and has all but lost his fantasy value. He says his ankle injury is a thing of the past, but the results say otherwise. Golden Tate has not scored since Week 8 and his reception totals have dropped off. Could he be due for a rebound? If Minnesota focuses on stopping Johnson, Tate could see plenty of opportunities come his way.
Green Bay
We'll see just how good the Packers are this week at Buffalo. The weather won't bother them, we know that, but perhaps the Bills pass defense will? Buffalo is coming off an impressive performance against Peyton Manning, allowing only 14 completions for 173 yards and 0 touchdown passes. The key to slowing Aaron Rodgers down is to have an effective pass rush. If Buffalo can do that, expect to see reduced fantasy totals from all of the Packers faithful. This is not a good match up for the regular Packers weapons, but Green Bay is match up proof, just don't expect big numbers across the board.
Houston
The big news in Houston is the concussion to Andre Johnson. It is unknown if he will pass the required protocols mandated by the league, so monitor his status as the week progresses. If Johnson is out, DeAndre Hopkins takes center stage as the team's primary receiving threat. He may be lined up against Colts corner Vontae Davis, who hopes to return this week after dealing with a concussion all of last week. Arian Foster should see plenty of touches in this game, especially if Johnson is out. Foster is capable of taking over a game by himself. This could easily be another 30 touch game for Foster, which would surely yield positive fantasy numbers.
Indianapolis
The Colts have won three games in a row and will host the Texans in Week 15. Andrew Luck has been solid all year and in the earlier match up against Houston, T.Y. Hilton went off for 9-223-1. Reggie Wayne is showing signs of slowing down in what could be his last year in the league. Up to this point we have seen Donte Moncrief get snaps in mostly three-WR formations, but that could change in the coming weeks. He's someone to keep an eye on, especially in these last few regular season games. Dan Herron has taken over as the majority rusher for Indianapolis while Trent Richardson has seen a decrease in touches. Herron has 11 catches in the last three games and is someone to consider as a low end RB2 or flex option going forward.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville has not had a rusher top 60 yards since Week 9 and this week's match up at Baltimore suggests that streak could stretch to five games. The Jaguars have struggled to sustain drives and as a result, the fantasy production is not there. The Ravens poor secondary is one to exploit and that means fantasy value is waiting to be found. Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts each had 10 targets last week. They stand to be the big beneficiaries of fantasy production this week.
Kansas City
Jamaal Charles is banged up with knee and ankle injuries but he continues to play on. The Raiders come to Arrowhead this week and we know Charles has had success against the Raiders in the past. He relishes his role as a fantasy MVP. It's like he lives for these games. I expect him to give it his all this week as fantasy teams everywhere look for him to come through in the clutch. Travis Kelce is coming off a big 7-catch, 100 yards performance last week. He is tied with Charles with 17 targets in the last three weeks. His 213 yards receiving in that span miles ahead of the next closest player (94 - Jason Avant). The Chiefs struggled against Oakland in the first meeting. Look for them to get some revenge on the Raiders this time around.
Miami
Several people, myself included expected more from Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing game against the Ravens poor secondary. Tannehill is not a down field passer though, which crossed my mind. As it turns out, Jarvis Landry's 55 yards receiving led the team and the outing as a whole was a disappointment from a fantasy perspective. It won't get much easier for Tannehill this week when the Dolphins travel to Foxboro to face the Patriots who are looking to settle the score with the Dolphins. Look for Darrelle Revis to be locked up with Mike Wallace in this game. In the previous meeting, Wallace got the best of Revis with 7 catches for 81 yards and a score. Jarvis Landry has not had less than five catches in his last six games. He remains a popular PPR choice and he could see more action with Revis focusing on Wallace.
Minnesota
Teddy Bridgewater is going through his rites of passage and growing up as we speak. He now has a game-winning overtime touchdown pass under his belt. Plays like that tend to turn into streaks of success. I can see Bridgewater taking some big steps forward as the end of the season nears, but he'll have a tough task this week at Detroit. The Lions pass rush and success at home will make things difficult for Bridgewater. Charles Johnson has been an emerging talent at wide receiver for Minnesota lately. I don't see his involvement dwindling in this game, but the sustained drives will be hard to come by and fantasy production could suffer.
New England
Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell have been the Patriots primary receiving threats recently and all three are worthy of being started this week against Miami, however the Dolphins run defense has been horrendous lately. Miami has allowed an average of 220 yards rushing in the last three weeks with 1.3 rushing touchdowns allowed. Usually when we think Bill Belichick will zig, he zags so I don't know what we'll see this week against the Dollphins. In the last three weeks, LeGarrette Blount has 42 carries and the next closest rusher has 12 (Shane Vereen). Jonas Gray has three carries in that span, if you're wondering. In the earlier game at Miami in Week 1, the Patriots offensive line struggled. This is a different team than we saw in Week 1. I expect New England to win this game going away. I think we'll see a return to the ground and pound this week, especially if the game isn't close and New England jumps out to an early sizeable lead. I'd risk starting Blount as a RB2 or flex option. The chances of him scoring a touchdown are high.
New Orleans
Everyone loaded up on the Saints against the hapless Panthers last week and the exact opposite happened. Once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence and three times is a trend. Can we really rely on the Saints any more? Is this the end of the Saints dominance as an offense? Surely Sean Payton can throw some plays together and ignite this offense can't he? Jimmy Graham is falling out of favor with me, Drew Brees is developing inconsistencies, the offensive line can't control the line of scrimmage, Kenny Stills isn't being targeted enough. There's too many question marks for me to be on board like I used to. The Saints are only one game removed from upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh. This week's opponent - at Chicago is a good match up for Brees and company, especially if they can get off to a good start. We'll see what happens this week in a pivotal game for the Saints. At least they won't be booed on the road.
NY Giants
Continue to ride the Odell Beckham wagon until it stops. Right now that wagon is on an open track traveling down hill with no obstacles in it's path. Eli Manning has confidence in his young receiver to make plays and he's giving him every opportunity to do so. Rashad Jennings (ankle) was a non-factor last week, while Andre Williams stole the show. I expect to see more from Jennings this week, so don't rely on Williams to give you the same production.
NY Jets
The Jets one big play maker on offense, Percy Harvin could be out for the year with a sprained ankle. The Jets play at Tennessee this week where both teams have a combined four wins. Tennessee's run defense has been poor latelyso look for Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson to see plenty of carries bewteen them, especially with Harvin out of the picture. Jace Amaro (concussion) could return this week after missing the last two games. If he plays, he'll see a fair number of targets. Eric Decker also stands to see an increase in targets going forward.
Oakland
Latavius Murray had success against the Chiefs defense in the earlier meeting, before a concussion ended his rise to stardom. He'll get another chance against the Chiefs this week, but will they be ready for him? How can Murray not be the primary focus for the Chiefs as they head into this game? Oakland is giving Murray plenty of touches to see what he can do. Last week he finished with 23 carries for 76 yards. He is clearly the lead back for this team now and therefore has emerged as a fantasy threat. Consider him a decent RB2 option this week. Marcel Reece has 13 catches in the last two games and remains a threat even with Murray's grasp on the lead back role. Reece is a great PPR flex option with the abilty to reach decent numbers if he scores.
Philadelphia
The Eagles have a good match up at home against the Cowboys this week. LeSean McCoy ran for over 150 yards against Dallas two weeks ago. He should see plenty of touches in this game with above average fantasy numbers. Mark Sanchez has seen a drop in value recently, but I like his chances to rebound against Dallas. Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews are both good bets to score, especially if Dallas can keep this game tight on the scoreboard. The closer the game, the better the receiving stats will be. I can see this being a back and forth battle with high scoring fantasy potential.
Pittsburgh
I was dead wrong about the game script vs. Cincinnati last week. Pittsburgh was able to drive at will on the Bengals which resulted in a 42-point win. This week the Steelers travel to Atlanta in what might be the best match up of the week from a fantasy perspective. LeVeon Bell is racking up big points, but so is the passing attack led by Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown is a runaway train that can't be stopped. Expect another 8+ catch game from Brown. Martavis Bryant keeps on making plays, most of which are big gainers. I don't see Atlanta stopping the Steelers offense. They are too balanced of an offense to struggle against the Falcons. Normally, I'm a little concerned about the Steelers on the road, but this game has the recipe for an offensive explosion, especially if Atlanta can move the ball as well, which I expect to be the case. Pittsburgh's strength on offense is also aided by their weakness on defense. Load up on your Steelers this week.
San Diego
After struggling against the Patriots, I expect the Chargers to bounce back against the Broncos this week. Keenan Allen should return to form after being draped by Darrelle Revis last week. In the previous meeting with Denver, Allen had 9 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. Antonio Gates also had success against the Denver with two scores on 5 receptions for 54 yards. Denver's run defense has been strong lately, keeping opponents under 80 yards rushing over the last three weeks. This isn't a great match up for Ryan Mathews, plus Ronnie Brown came alive in the short passing game last week which could keep Mathews in check as an every down back.
Seattle
Seattle has won three straight games and five of their last six. They will host the 49ers this week, a team that recently lost to Oakland. The Seattle faithful smell blood in the water and this could be the game where the Seahawks unleash a fury of pain on the 49ers, a team they love to hate. I could see this being a 24-10 type of game. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch should be able to control this game with each having decent fantasy numbers.
San Francisco
The 49ers are reeling right now after a disappointing loss to the one-win Raiders last week. At 7-6 their playoff hopes are fading and their uncertainty beyond this year is also a question mark. Colin Kaepernick has regressed this year and the coaching staff looks to be headed out of town. There's a lot of uncertainty and concern in the air surrounding the 49ers and this week's opponent at Seattle is looking to take full advantage of those concerns. It's possible that Colin Kaepernick and company will pull up their bootstraps and rise to the occasion this week, but it seems more likely that the 49ers will fall prey to a much better team and continue to fall down the ladder. Seattle's defense has been playing lights out lately. I would not be happy starting anyone this week.
St. Louis
The Rams have shut out back to back opponents and have their sights set on the Cardinals. Arizona and St. Louis are headed in opposite directions, however it looks like the Cardinals will still have a chance at a playoff berth with a 10-3 record, despite the team's recent struggles. St. Louis on the other hand, is playing great football on both sides of the ball, especially defense. The once strong Cardinals defense has struggled lately, allowing an average of 288 yards passing per game and 131 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. This game is setting up nicely for Tre Mason to rack up decent yards. He has been given 79 carries over the last four games. He's getting touches and he's getting good results. Consider him a good RB2 option this week.
Tampa Bay
The Bucs have scored over 17 points in only one of the last eight games. This week they will play at Carolina who will be without Cam Newton. The Bucs run game has been dreadful this year and the Panthers have not allowed a RB to rush over 52 yards since Week 9. The primary fantasy value for Tampa is in their receiving corps, namely Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Both are considered good options but Carolina's defense has improved over the last few weeks and could give Josh McCown and company some problems. I like this match up for Tampa but I don't love it.
Tennessee
The Titans are running on empty right now with injuries on both sides of the ball to back up their inconsistent play. Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) is out this week, which means Jake Locker will get the start against the Jets. Justin Hunter is already out for the year and Kendall Wright is dealing with a hand injury. Delanie Walker stands to benefit the most, however only if the offense can sustain drives, which wasn't the case last week against the Giants. Nate Washington and Derek Hagan could see extended action, especially if Wright is unable to go.
Washington
Injuries are hitting Washington hard as several key players are looking like they will be out this week. Colt McCoy (neck) could be out, which means Robert Griffin will likely see the field. DeSean Jackson (leg) may not play this week, so look for Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed to see more targets. Washington has struggled on offense this year and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon. There is not a lot of fantasy interest in Washington at this time, especially if Griffin continues to have difficulty in Jay Gruden's offense. Pierre Garcon could reach 6-7 catches by default in this game, but the yardage and scores have been hard to come by.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com