Arizona
After a tough match up against Seattle last week, Arizona has an easier foe in Atlanta for Week 13. Andre Ellington is 2nd among all running backs with 18 receptions in the last four games. His rushing output should increase against Atlanta, which should make him one of the better RB options this week. Larry Fitzgerald (knee) did not play last week and it's not clear when he will return to the lineup. His absence is good for Michael Floyd and John Brown. Both WR options are decent plays this week against Atlanta.
Atlanta
Whatever momentum Atlanta had in beating Carolina on the road is now gone after another loss in a tight game, this one at the hands of the Cleveland Browns. The NFC West leading Cardinals come to the dome this week in what looks like a difficult match up for the home team Falcons. Beware of Matt Ryan and the Falcons receiving corps - Arizona has allowed a total of three touchdown passes with five interceptions in the last four games. Tread lightly with Julio Jones and Roddy White.
Baltimore
The Ravens host San Diego this week in what looks like a hard-fought battle that could be somewhat low scoring. I don't love the match up for Baltimore, but I do expect them to get the win as they jockey for playoff position in the ever so talented AFC North. Justin Forsett has been a strong RB2 option all year and still has the ability to put up decent numbers this week. His reception totals have dropped off lately but any given week his check downs could spark again.
Buffalo
Robert Woods, not Sammy Watkins has more targets (24) and receptions (17) than his higher regarded teammate over the last three games. Watkins (22 targets, 10 receptions in that span) has dropped down a notch or two among other rookie wide receivers lately, which makes me a little less excited about his chances of fantasy glory in the playoff run. The Bills host the Browns this week and if there's one thing to know about Cleveland, the receiver to target against the Browns is the WR2. Watkins should see plenty of Joe Haden while Woods will draw Buster Skrine. Watkins could still have a decent game, but the odds suggest Woods will again upstage the rookie.
Carolina
Carolina returns from their bye week with a small glimmer of hope to still win the pitiful NFC South. A win against Minnesota will go a long way towards shifting their momentum. Cam Newton had an extra week to heal, Mike Tolbert returns from injury and the offensive line is healthier. Two of the Panthers three wins came against the NFC North (DET and CHI) however both were at home. I expect Carolina to try to establish the run in this cold-weather game and it could mean a lot of Mike Tolbert. The Vikings have allowed an opposing RB to rush for 90+ yards in each of the last three games. I'm not discounting DeAngelo Williams (or Jonathan Stewart) here but Tolbert is the one that I believe will be the goal line back and see an increase in touches. Kelvin Benjamin has eight of the Panthers 16 touchdown receptions this year. He could grab another score in this game, but I don't see a big yardage performance this week.
Cincinnati
The Bengals go to Tampa Bay for another game against the hapless NFC South. Ever since the Bucs allowed five first half touchdown passes to Joe Flacco in Week 6, they have allowed a total of six touchdown passes in last five games (MIN, CLE, ATL, WAS, CHI). That's not exactly a murderers row of oppsing offenses. A.J. Green is back to normal and Andy Dalton is taking full advantage of his abilities. I expect at least one hook up to Green in the end zone this week. Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are sharing reps at nearly a 50/50 clip. Hill has been more of an end zone magnet lately, therefore I rank him over Bernard for time being. I don't think we've seen the last of Bernard's dazzling plays, but for now, Hill is the stronger fantasy option.
Cleveland
Isaiah Crowell has taken over as the Browns lead back - and it's about time. The departure of Ben Tate brought that decision to fruition. Crowell is a player who can win your league, especially if you have strong pieces already in your lineup. This week's match up at Buffalo does not great for the Browns rushing offense on paper, but the presence of Josh Gordon will open up the ground game enough for Crowell to get his chances and scoring opportunities. I normally don't like RBs against Buffalo (especially at the Ralph), but this week could be the exception and it comes back to Gordon. It didn't take him long to get his mid-season game on. He's back and he's an elite Top 4 wide receiver the rest of the way. He's match up proof and should be in your lineup going forward.
Chicago
The Bears play at Detroit for the early afternoon Thanksgiving game. I don't like Matt Forte as a rusher this week. Detroit may have struggled against LeGarrette Blount last week, but Forte isn't a plodding back that can wear down a defense, especially not one as big as Detroit's. Forte as a receiver is a different story. I will be shocked if he doesn't clear six receptions this week. The running game will struggle and the Bears will have to resort to becoming a one-dimensional team. This is a big Jay Cutler pass attempts game. His ability to not throw interceptions and force errant throws is the factor in this game, in my opinion. Look for plenty of short-ranged passes (to Forte). He might even eclipse ten catches this week. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett have potential to produce this week. The better the play of the offensive line, the more I like their chances of having a big game.
Dallas
The Cowboys have a HUGE game against division rival Philadelphia this week. This game could result in both teams reaching upper 20's, maybe 30's in points. The Eagles have allowed opposing running backs to reach 20+ carries in a game four times this year, but none have exceeded 15 carries in the last four games (HOU, CAR, GB, TEN). I fully expect DeMarco Murray to buck that trend especially if Dallas can keep Mark Sanchez in check. In his one road game (at GB) Sanchez looked like a much different quarterback. Tony Romo's back doesn't appear to be a problem. I expect a big game from Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Ever since DeMeco Ryans was lost in the middle for Philadelphia, teams have had success in the middle of the field, which is where Witten roams. If you're looking for a good daily tight end at a decent price, Witten is a great option. By the way, Witten is tied for the team lead with 15 receptions (Bryant) in the last three games.
Denver
There are two running backs that I believe will be critical factors in the playoff stretch. Isaiah Crowell is one and C.J. Anderson is the other. Anderson's 18 receptions on 25 targets in the last four games tops all running backs. He is a versatile weapon on a prolific offense. Lately the Broncos defense has been a liability which has resulted in more check downs to Anderson. Don't expect John Fox to go away from his new found back even when/if Ronnie Hillman or Montee Ball return to the lineup. Anderson has earned his role and I expect him to keep it and thrive in the offense going forward. I don't love the match up at Kansas City this week, but this is the Broncos offense we're talking about here. Remember, Latavius Murray went off on the Chiefs last week. Julius Thomas (ankle) is iffy this week, so monitor his practice schedule. If he plays, play him. I think it's that simple. Oh by the way, Brandon McManus was waived this week. The new Denver kicker is Connor Barth. He's worth a waiver claim if you are in need of a kicker. I normally shy away from kickers on Peyton Manning'led teams because touchdowns are too plentiful, but in this case it's rare to find a kicker on a high scoring offense this late in the season.
Detroit
The Lions host the Bears this week on Thanksgiving. This is not a great game for the running game, which has struggled to find a decent rhythm this year. The Bears have allowed one rushing touchdown since Week 7. I'm not on the Joique Bell bandwagon and Reggie Bush cannot get healthy. What I am excited about is the passing game and therefore receiving game of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. With Charles Tillman out, the Bears secondary has been brutal against opposing receivers, especially on the road. I expect more of that to continue this week. Start the trio of Matthew Stafford, Johnson and Tate this week. The match up is one of the better ones in the league.
Green Bay
3, 3, 3, 6, 3, = the number of touchdown passes by Aaron Rodgers at home this year, but the home opponents haven't been great (NYJ, MIN, CAR, CHI, PHI). That productive trend has a big test this week when the Patriots come to Lambeau Field. You can bet that Bill Belichick will look to put the pressure on Rodgers. If you pressure Rodgers, you can beat him. We saw that by Detroit and Seattle this year and San Francisco in the playoffs last year. The world expects both teams to put up the points, but I think we might see more of a ball-controlled game that could feature plenty of Eddie Lacy. I expect Rodgers to make plays and get yards, but I don't see a top fantasy quarterback ranking from him this week. The game script crystal ball doesn't show that in my opinion. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and company are always must starts, but I'm not targeting them as my favorite receiver plays this week. Nor am I for Rodgers.
Houston
Alfred Blue came back to earth this week against Cincinnati and with another weak of rest, Arian Foster could come back just in time to squash any fantasy hopes that people have for Blue. It's entirely possible that we will see both backs get carries, but if Foster plays, he'll see the vast majority. The Texans were dealt a tough blow this week after learning that Ryan Mallett tore his pectoral muscle and is lost for the season. Mallett's loss brings the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick. This week Houston hosts the Titans who have been a doormat for opposing running backs lately. If Foster is indeed back, look for him to have a big game with plenty of touches. Monitor his status this week and consider Blue a viable replacement option if Foster has to miss another game.
Indianapolis
The Colts have a problem at running back, which could ultimately be their unraveling come playoff time. Trent Richardson may have scored last week (and he could score again this week), but he is not a good rusher. His career 3.3 YPC average is one glaring indication of such. The loss of Ahmad Bradshaw hurt this offense and we've already seen the effects against Jacksonville last week. Andrew Luck struggled to get the offense into a rhythm and it wouldn't shock me to see more of the same, even against Washington this week and at Cleveland next week. The Colts need to find a sutiable rushing threat and Dan Herron could be that guy, but I'm not counting on it. After eight consecutive games of 300+ yards passing, Luck has one game of less than 300 yards passing without Bradshaw in the lineup. I'm not saying sell Luck, but the writing is on the wall for a potential drop in production.
Jacksonville
The Jaguars struggled against the Colts last week, but now they return home to face the Giants. It's rare to find good fantasy success on teams that fail to win. Right now, the Jaguars are failing to win. Garbage yards and late game production isn't always a given and sustained drives are becoming more difficult, especially without rookie Allen Robinson. Denard Robinson is a great story this year, but I don't see him being a fantasy MVP for teams. It's possible that Cecil Shorts and Allen Hurns will provide a spark here and there, but it's difficult to count on consistent effort, let alone consistent offensive scoring opportunities. In short - stay away from Jacksonville fantasy options.
Kansas City
The Chiefs dropped the ball at Oakland in a game they should've won. Their offense has struggled at times this year, which has kept them from getting clutch scoring drives when they need it most. This week the Broncos come to Arrrowhead in what is a critical game if the Chiefs want to earn a playoff berth in the AFC. Denver's defense has been suspect recently and the Chiefs could be the next in line of teams who exploit that. I like several Chiefs in this game for fantasy options. Alex Smith has low end QB1 value this week. I could see him putting up decent numbers. Jamaal Charles is going to be featured often in this game, especially if the Chiefs are in it from the beginning. Dwaye Bowe has been a nice spark this year - I like his chances of being a strong flex option for us this week. This game has Travis Kelce written all over it. Kelce's big detractor has been the Chiefs inability to have high pass attempt games, which increases his chances for a big game. This game feels like the opposite. Kelce could approach 8-10 targets with several scoring opportunities. Denver has allowed 5 touchdowns to tight ends in the last seven games, which leads me to believe Kelce will be a good fantasy option this week.
Miami
There's a lot of young, emerging wide receivers that have raised my eyebrows this year. I can't talk about this class of receivers without mentioning Jarvis Landry. Remember, it was Landry who outperformed Odell Beckham Jr at LSU when both were on the field at the same time. Now that Ryan Tannehill is starting to find success in Bill Lazor's offense, Landry is getting his number called more often and he's converting his opportunities. In the last four games, Tannehill has nine touchdown passes - Landry has four of them. Mike Wallace may still be the team's face of the receiving unit, but Landry is quickly stating his case to take over that role. Wallace is best used in a field-stretching role where he can get behind the defense, but that's not Tannehill's strength. As a result, we're seeing less yardage from Wallace with a slight overachieving on the scoring. I expect Wallace's scoring to drop in the coming weeks, while Landry's increases. We've already seen the beginning of that since Landry's emergence. Know this - in the last four games, Landry has a much higher reception percentage (75%) 24 recs on 32 targets, while Wallace's reception percentage is 57% with 16 receptions on 28 targets. Landry also has four touchdowns in that span compared to Wallace's two. Oh by the way - Miami plays the Jets and their poor secondary this week. I like both of them to have a good game with both potentially reaching the end zone.
Minnesota
The Vikings don't have many strong fantasy options, but whatever they have is a decent start against the Panthers, who have been brutal on the road. In the last four road games (BAL, CIN, GB, PHI) the Panthers allowed 38, 37, 38, 45 points respectively. Minnesota doesn't fall in the same offensive stratosphere as those teams, but a bad defense is a bad defense. I don't expect the Vikings to score 30 points, but 21-24 is definitely a possibility, which means someone is going to have to score touchdowns. Charles Johnson and Greg Jennings have been the big receiving contributors for the Vikings over the last few weeks and should continue that role, especially with Cordarrelle Patterson battling an ankle/knee injury. Either one of Johnson or Jennings is worth a flex option start this week. Jerick McKinnon is also someone to consider this week against the Panthers poor run defense. Ben Tate was active last week, while Matt Asiata sat. We could see more from Tate as he gets more acclimated to his new offense. There's bound to be some fantasy value on the Vikings this week, but don't expect the moon.
New England
Jonas Gray may be the closest thing to Timmy Smith since...well Timmy Smith. Remember him? His 200+ yards rushing in a Super Bowl XXII win against Denver was impressive, but we never heard from him again. Jonas Gray was the right man for the job for the Patriots against the Lions, but the success may have gone to his head (similar to Timmy Smith) which ultimately led New England signing LeGarrette Blount. The Patriots believe Blount is better prepared in their offense and he will likely be used more often especially as the weather gets worse. New England is known for changing their game plan on a weekly basis to exploit weaknesses in their opponent. This week at Green Bay may be one of those games where we see an emphasis on the running game (which also is one of Green Bay's weaknesses). I wouldn't be surprised to see Blount carve out a role as the Patriots will try to pound their way against the Packers, which also keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field. I think we'll see more short passes to Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell with timely routes to Rob Gronkowski to keep the defense guessing. Tom Brady can find fantasy success in any game, but I don't see this as being a big fantasy scoring game for him.
New Orleans
Don't be too concerned about Mark Ingram's poor outing against Baltimore. The Ravens are stout against the run, especially up the middle where he likes to run. Teams like Baltimore, Detroit, St. Louis and New England have the size up front to keep him in check. Pittsburgh, especially at home, can also be a tough match up for Ingram, so don't necessarily expect a big bounce back game. Pierre Thomas, on the other hand, is more versatile and would seem to be the better option against the Steelers. I expect to see more from the passing game this week, where Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and Marques Colston will thrive. Pierre Thomas also has increased value in PPR leagues as he kept pace with Graham and Stills for targets last week against Baltimore. The Steelers have allowed 11 touchdown passes in the last five games against (HOU, IND, BAL, NYJ, TEN). Aside from Luck and maybe Flacco, that's hardly a strong caliber of quarterbacks. Brees and company could thrive in what looks like another 300-yard game that could stretch into 350 yards.
NY Giants
If you weren't loving Odell Beckham Jr before last week, you are now. His coming out party in front of a national audience capped by his unworldly end zone snag sent Twitter into a frenzy. He wasn't much of a factor after hurting his back, so monitor his status in practice this week. He should be fine, but back injuries can be tricky. Some nuggets on Beckham - only Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have more targets than him in the last four games. His 31 receptions in the same span is second only to Thomas. He's a stud and deserves to be mentioned among the elite wide receivers going forward this year and down the road. By the way, I'm not loving Larry Donnell's lack of consistency, but he is clearly the team's go-to option among the trio of tight ends that includes him, Daniel Fells and Andrien Robinson. Over the last four games, Donnell has 24 targets and 13 receptions. Compare that to Fells (5 & 4) and Robinson (1 & 1). Donnell also has two touchdowns in that span compared to zero from Fells and one from Robinson.
NY Jets
The Jets play Miami this week. Miami has one of the better defenses in the league and the Jets are reeling on offense. Advantage - Miami. Yes Miami just allowed 39 points to Denver, but Geno Smith and Michael Vick are nowhere near Peyton Manning. The Jets have three touchdown passes in the last three games. In the NFL any given week is still alive and well, but the Jets are on the verge of throwing in the towel on the season, if it hasn't happened already.
Oakland
The Raiders found a gem in Latavius Murray, however there are two things keeping me from being on the bandwagon this week - one, he still has to pass his concussion protocol. Two, the Raiders play at St. Louis where the Rams have been stingy at home. Murray isn't sneaking up on anyone this week and if he plays, the Rams and their stout defensive line will be ready for him. This is not a good match up for Oakland. The momentum of a big home win against Kansas City would be better served against a lesser defense, especially on the road. I fully expect the Raiders to struggle in this game, with or without their newfound rushing threat Murray.
Philadelphia
Another young receiver that has impressed me lately has been Jordan Matthews. Matthews has at least six receptions or a touchdown in each of the last five games. He's quickly emerging as a weekly fantasy start after struggling to find his groove in the early part of the season. He and Jeremy Maclin have 21 and 24 receptions respectively in the last four games, which is tops on the team. Combined, the duo has nine touchdowns in the last five games (Maclin 5, Matthews 4). The Eagles will play at Dallas on Thanksgiving this week. Mark Sanchez struggled in his only road game (at GB) as the starter for Chip Kelly. A road game at Dallas is not as tall an order as some other venues. Crowd noise isn't as much of a factor in the expansive vastness of AT&T Stadium, but this is still a divisional game and there will plenty of Cowboys fans making it tough for Sanchez. I like this match up for Philadelphia in what could be a high scoring battle. LeSean McCoy has been playing better after a rough stretch to begin the season. He's a safe bet to have success, but I'm not as reliant on him as I have been in seasons prior.
Pittsburgh
I love this match up for the Steelers this week. The Saints secondary is among the worst in the league due to injuries and lack of talent, which means Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant should benefit greatly this week. LeVeon Bell should also rack up the yards in what looks like a high scoring game for Pittsburgh at home. 1, 3, 2, 6, 6 = touchdown passes by Roethlisberger at home this year. Those opponents include CLE, TB, HOU, IND, BAL. If the Steelers don't score 4-5 offensive touchdowns in this game, I'll be surprised. Put your chips on the Steelers offensive weapons this week, especially if New Orleans can keep pace. The stars are alligned for a big game. Load up.
San Diego
In case you're not back on the Keenan Allen bandwagon, please jump on. Allen was slowed by nagging injuries to begin the year, but he has come back strong with consistent production lately. Allen has 31 targets in the last three games and his next closest teammate (Malcom Floyd) has only 16. This week, the Chargers play at Baltimore in a game where both teams are 7-4 and vying for a playoff spot in the AFC. I like this match up for San Diego's passing game. The Ravens secondary has struggled this year, but especially since losing Jimmy Smith. Keenan Allen should be targeted often in this game with a great chance at 100 yards. Baltimore has allowed a WR to total 98+ yards receiving in four of the last five games.
Seattle
Since the Percy Harvin trade, Russell Wilson has thrown for less than 200 yards four times (less than 211 yards five times). He's made up for it with with four games of 70+ yards rushing, but outside of Wilson, there's not much fantasy value other than Marshawn Lynch. In the last four games, only one receiver has more than 10 receptions (Doug Baldwin, 17) - that's NOT GOOD. It's Lynch or Wilson as fantasy options and there's really not much else. The Thursday night match up at San Francisco further illustrates my dislike of anyone other than Wilson or Lynch. If the 49ers can keep Wilson in check, they will have a good chance to not only win the game, but win it rather handedly.
San Francisco
The 49ers host Seattle this week in what looks like a low scoring game. Here's a nugget for you - Seattle has allowed only one touchdown to a wide receiver (Preston Parker) since Week 5. On the contrary, they have allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season. Could we see a Vernon Davis revival this week? He hasn't scored since he found the end zone twice in Week 1. Could this be the week where Carlos Hyde emerges? Hyde is the perfect back to pound the ball against the Seahawks in a ball-controlled game. Frank Gore is not the right back for the 49ers in this game, in my opinion. Whether or not Jim Harbough agrees is another story. Anquan Boldin has been sensational lately with 40 targets, 26 receptions and three touchdowns in the last four games. He's a legit fantasy option, but against Seattle the odds are against him. Could Michael Crabtree get some revenge against Richard Sherman here? Who will Sherman cover? These are important details to learn as we get closer to Thursday night. The winner of who isn't covered by Sherman could be an interesting option this week. My gut says Sherman will mostly handle Crabtree, but that could change.
St. Louis
Tre Mason has come on strong lately for the Rams and this week, the Raiders visit the dome. I like this match up for Mason, but I would be more on board if he caught more passes. In a PPR environment, Mason drops down my rankings. He would need an additional 40-50 yards rushing to keep pace with other backs like Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Anderson and Andre Ellington who routinely reach 4-5 receptions a game. The Rams have struggled to find fantasy value outside of Mason and an occasional Kenny Britt big play. This is a good match up for the Rams, but their offense has been brutal lately - 11 receptions leads all Rams over the last four games. Nothing of major interest here, in my opinion, even against Oakland.
Tampa Bay
The Bucs host the Bengals this week. Let it be known that the AFC North is 11-1 against the NFC South this year. Yeah, let that sink in for a minute. Cincinnati has held opposing quarterbacks to zero touchdown passes four times this year. They held Drew Brees, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan to one touchdown pass. Josh McCown has been a nice spark for the Buccaneers in his second stint this season, but this is a tough match up for Tampa Bay who have scored over 17 points only once in the last six games. Interestingly enough, the yardage has been high for McCown (two 300-yard games in his three games since being name starter again) and he has a gem in Mike Evans who has caught four of McCown's five touchdown passes since being named starter again. Evans and Vincent Jackson have 40 and 38 targets in the last four games compared to 17 by the next closest receiver (Austin Sefarian-Jenkins). Start Evans and Jackson and hope the Bucs can find the end zone.
Tennessee
Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright are the Titans go-to receiving threats with Justin Hunter starting to get some traction in the offense. In the last three games, no receiver has more than 9 receptions, keep in mind, that includes Walker who missed a game with a concussion. Walker is clearly the team's primary fantasy threat right now, but Wright is capable of a strong game any given week. Bishop Sankey hasn't performed up to his expectations, but it's still early for him. This week's match up at Houston is not great for Tennessee. Houston is not prone to allowing a lot of points, which wasn't the case at Philadelphia last week. As good as Walker was last week, don't expect the Titans to follow a similar game script that yields a lot of big plays and scoring chances. Walker will still be a key contributor and is worth a TE1 play but I don't like his chances of a big pay day like last week's effort.
Washington
Washington has scored 19, 20, 26, 7 and 13 points in the last five games. They will need to light up the scoreboard at Indianapolis to have a chance. The Colts have allowed 51, 24, 42 and 3 points in their last four games. Washington is coming off a close battle against San Francisco and the Colts offense is a little out of sync since losing Ahmad Bradshaw. What am I getting at here? Washington has struggled offensively with the exception of Alfred Morris. This may look like a decent match up for Griffin against the Colts, but Griffin has been awful lately. Morris is the only player I have moderate faith in, with the others being a complete crapshoot, including DeSean Jackson, who only has 10 catches in the last three games. It's Morris or elsewhere if you ask me. Update - Colt McCoy to get the start for Washington over Robert Griffin. Whoa. This is big move for the Washington coaching staff. A healthy scratch of your supposed franchise quarterback is not good news. Washington is grasping at straws here. I'm more on the fence of this being a strong play for the IND Def/ST than McCoy's ability to revive the team.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com