Arizona
To give you a comparison, Andre Ellington is just four PPR fantasy points behind Marshawn Lynch in the same amount of games (8). He was likely drafted as a RB2, but he's putting up RB1 numbers. That's a win any way you look at it. Arizona still has to play Seattle twice, but these aren't your 2013 Seahawks. Feel confident in playing Ellington each week. He's a big part of the offense and he should be able keep churning fantasy points going forward. I'm still on the fence with Michael Floyd, but he has the talent to fire off a resurgence in the second half of the season.
Atlanta
Aside from Arizona in Week 13, the Falcons have a relatively soft schedule the rest of the way, which should be music to the ears of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White owners. I expect both receivers to see an uptick in production in the second half with a slight nod towards Harry Douglas as well. I would not be surprised to see Devonta Freeman start to see more carries and involvement in the offense in the next few games and the tail end of the year. Atlanta will want to know what they have in their rookie all-around back. If he's available on the waiver wire and you have room, he's a decent proactive waiver claim.
Baltimore
It's good to see Justin Forsett getting more receptions. There was a stretch where his receiving points were dwindling. He now has 8 catches over the last two games with 31 on the year. Owen Daniels has five catches or more in four of the last five games. He's a cheap alternative at tight end who could pay dividends against Tennessee this week. Consider starting him if your main tight end is on a bye (Gates, Dwayne Allen, Gronkowski, Jordan Reed).
Buffalo
The Bills return from their bye with a home game against the Chiefs, followed by a road game at Miami and back home against the one-win Jets. These next two games will say a lot about the Bills chances at a playoff berth in the competitive AFC. Sammy Watkins has been better than advertised lately and that should continue. Right now he is the best rookie receiver in a draft class that's loaded with talented receivers. The Fred Jackson watch continues. He's hoping to be cleared to practice at some point this week, but he may be forced to sit out one more game. When he does return, he'll be the majority rusher for the Bills with C.J. Spiller out for an extended period. Jackson is the type of player who can elevate a fantasy roster, which is much needed right now as teams are jockeying for a playoff push.
Carolina
The Panthers offense is struggling right now. Cam Newton is playing inconsistent ball and the offensive line is having difficulties staying afloat. To make matters worse, their defense is still not the same caliber as last year's dominant unit. The running game is finally healthy again, but DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart aren't as good as they used to be. This team will struggle to score points, which is not good for fantasy purposes. They have a sweet schedule in the second half, especially the fantasy playoffs so there is still some hope that Newton, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen will rise up when we need them most. For now, be wary about starting any of these players.
Cincinnati
The Bengals have a good problem - two capable running backs. Jeremy Hill filled in for the injured Giovani Bernard last week and it looks like he'll do the same in a short week against Cleveland on Thursday night. Hill is playing his way into increased playing time in what could be a 50/50 split when Bernard (hip, collarbone) returns. A.J. Green (toe) returned to the field last week and while he wasn't his normal high target self, he did manage to score a touchdown. Mohamed Sanu also scored, and like I predicted, he'll still be a key part of the offense even with Green back and healthy. Andy Dalton should see a rise in production with Green's return. As of now, he's the 20th ranked quarterback, but he could rise in the ranks to the Top 15 if not higher in the second half of the year.
Cleveland
The Browns are looking to make a statement in the crowded AFC North and a win on the road at Cincinnati could go a long way in their run for a playoff spot. I said earlier, if Cleveland can be at .500 or better when Josh Gordon returns in Week 12, they have a chance to make some noise as the playoffs near. Andrew Hawkins has been the leading receiver for the Browns this year, but he's getting banged up lately and could miss the game against the Bengals on a short week due to a leg injury he suffered last week. Monitor his situation and take a look at the equally diminutive Taylor Gabriel if he is a no-go for Thursday night.
Chicago
The Bears are coming off their bye week loser of four of their last five games. They have a tough divisional game at Green Bay to try to right the ship. Fantasy wise, the Bears are loaded with talent. Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett all have the ability to put up big numbers any given week. I think we'll see a well rested Bears team give Green Bay all they can handle. If that's the case, the fantasy value should be high in this game. Brandon Marshall should be fully healed from his ankle injury and Alshon Jeffery the same with his hamstring injury. Chicago may lose this game, but I still like their fantasy relevance this week.
Dallas
DeMarco Murray plays Jacksonville in London this week in what should be an excellent match up. Jacksonville had troubles against Jeremy Hill last week and Murray is arguably the best down hill runner in the league. The Cowboys should dominate the line of scrimmage and give Murray plenty of opportunities for big plays. Tony Romo (back) is expected to return this week, which means the fantasy value of Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams should bounce back after a week in the doldrums thanks to Brandon Weeden. Dez Bryant managed a late score, but he was otherwise a disappointment. Keep a watch on Tony Romo's practice schedule, because the team's hopes squarely lie on his ability to play. If he is out, look for Murray to see nine man fronts and take both Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams down a full tier.
Denver
Twenty of Peyton Manning's 24 touchdown passes have gone to Julius Thomas (10), Demaryius Thomas (6) and Emmanuel Sanders (4). We've seen a drop in targets to Julius Thomas over the last few weeks and conversely an increase in targets to Sanders. Whether or not that continues is anyone's guess, but I do know that Julius Thomas is too good to be ignored. HIs 10 touchdowns state that loud and clear. All Broncos are to be started this week when they play the winless Raiders, who have allowed 30 points or more in three of the last five games. Get your Bronco on this week, in what looks like a great match up for all involved.
Detroit
The Lions return from their bye to host the red hot Miami Dolphins. Detroit should feel hot themselves, because they'll finally get their star receiver Calvin Johnson back who missed the last three games (five if you count his inability to perform well) with an ankle injury. Johnson's return should elevate the entire offense starting with Matthew Stafford. This game will say a lot about both teams with the winner making a statement in their respective conferences. Look for Reggie Bush (ankle) to practice this week and be involved in the offense once again. He'll face his former team this week, so there likely will be some extra added incentive for him to play well.
Green Bay
The Packers will host division rival Chicago this week in a game where both teams are returning from their bye. Aaron Rodgers (hamstring) should be fully healed from his hammstring twinge, but there's always the threat of a tweak if he pushes too hard. Jordy Nelson has been the team's leading receiver with Randall Cobb not far behind. Lately, Davonte Adams has been coming on, which I believe we'll continue to see more of in the second half of the season. We've seen the Packers third receiver produce well in the past. Look no further than James Jones. Adams definitely has the ability to be a fantasy threat. We could see him put up similar numbers to Martavis Bryant in Pittsburgh or Odell Beckham in New York. This rookie class of receivers has plenty of talent. The next big game could be from Adams. Don't forget about him.
Houston - Bye, Next three games (at CLE, CIN, TEN)
Indianapolis - Bye, Next three games (NE, JAC, WAS)
Jacksonville
At first glance, the Jaguars fantasy options don't sound too appealing, however they have been very productive lately. Denard Robinson continues to defy the odds. He has produced in three straight games and deserves some fantasy attention. Allen Robinson is having a good year with consistent play. Allen Hurns has been a nice surprise this year and is more than capable of a big game any given week. If Brandon Weeden starts for Dallas this week, take a flier on the Jaguars Def/ST unit. Only the Bills and Vikings have more sacks than Jacksonville (27). Sacks and pressure is what causes turnovers and bad decisions. Jacksonville could be a cheap option this week if you have a need for a defense on a heavy bye week.
Kansas City
The Chiefs are all about Jamaal Charles, but Dwayne Bowe has 5+ catches in four of the last five games. He's staying under the radar because he still has not found the end zone this year. Usually, touches will eventually lead to touchdowns. If that's the case, Bowe could have a nice second half of the year. He has 17 catches on 23 targets in the last three games. The scores will have to come soon right? Right? The Chiefs are still a run first team, led by their stalwart Jamaal Charles. They face the Bills in Buffalo this week which won't be an easy game. This isn't the best match up for Charles and the Chiefs but we've learned many times that Charles is match up proof. This might be a game in the teens and low 20's but if anyone is going to produce for Kansas City, it's Charles.
Miami
The 5-3 Dolphins will try to win their fourth straight game this week at Detroit. Ryan Tannehill has been playing well lately with contributions from Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry and Charles Clay. Those three, along with Lamar Miller have been the leading producers for Miami this year. Tannehill is coming off a three-touchdown game last week and is starting to look like he's turning the corner as a reliable NFL quarterback. More importantly, Tannehill has rushed for 47 yards or more in each of the last four games. Not only is he throwing better, but he is racking up the rushing yards as well. Lamar Miller (shoulder) has a mild shoulder injury and should be able to play this week. Monitor his practice schedule this week to see if you can play him against the Lions.
Minnesota - Bye, Next three games (at CHI, GB, CAR)
New England - Bye, Next three games (at IND, DET, at GB)
New Orleans
Could the Saints be establishing a rushing identity? Finally? After many years of teasing, New Orleans may finally have a running game led by Mark Ingram. Ingram returned from a hand injury and has taken over as the Saints primary ball carrier. He has 24 and 30 carries in the last two games, which is unheard of in a Sean Payton offense. The 4-4 Saints will host the 49ers this week in a pivotal game that could tell the story of both team's fate in the undecided NFC. Jimmy Graham (shoulder) is apparently back to normal as evidenced by his 7-83-1 performance against Carolina last Thursday night. Graham is healthy, Ingram is thriving, Drew Brees is playing well, Pierre Thomas may be returning soon. The Saints are looking like a team on the rise in the weak NFC South. If they can string together a few wins, they'll be in the driver's seat to win the division.
NY Giants
A few notes on the Giants - Eli Manning, who is known for Super Bowl wins and interceptions, has not thrown a pick since Week 4. This week, New York plays at Seattle in what looks like a horrendous road game, but I'm hear to tell you that it won't be as bad as you think. The Seahawks are a different team offensively and defensively this year. I would not be surprised to see the Giants hang with the defending champs in this game. They are expected to get Rashad Jennings (knee) back and they have options in the passing game with rookie Odell Beckham coming on lately. Plus Rueben Randle should bounce back after being in Vontae Davis jail last week. Larry Donnell is also someone who deserves some fantasy attention. After a strong opening quarter of the season, Donnell is rounding into form as a reliable target for Eli Manning. He may not have 7-8 catches and two touchdowns every week, but he is still a tight end with fantasy relevance.
NY Jets
It's pretty clear that the Jets are finding ways to get Percy Harvin the ball. Both he and Eric Decker have been the two main receiving threats lately. The Jets are not a good team, as evidenced by their 1-8 record, however when their weapons reduce to two, it's easy to find the fantasy value. Right now, Decker and Harvin are the main producers on the team and the offense is centered around their ability to make plays. Michael Vick looks to be the starter again this week vs. Pittsburgh as Geno Smith is still banged up. There's also a performance factor at play here too. If Vick can lead the team to a win or even a moral win, he could be the starter for as long as he is healthy himself. Vick tends to get dinged up often, so who knows what will be in store. We could see more Chris Simms at some point.
Oakland
The Raiders have a tall task ahead of them against Denver this week. You can look at this two ways - Oakland could be trailing big in this game, which means drives won't be sustained and the team will have fewer offensive plays. The alternative approach is realize that there could be plenty of time for garbage yards, which means soft defenses and plenty of quick strike throws. Who benefits from this? The leading target receivers. Lately that has been James Jones, Andre Holmes and Mychal Rivera. Rivera is the one that interests me. He has 15 receptions on 20 targets in the last two games with two touchdowns. His two scores both were one yard out. In the last two games, only four of his 15 receptions went for more than 10 yards. He could be the garbage time winner in this game and if he can accumulate 3-4 catches before that even happens, I like his chances of being a standout for the third consecutive week.
Philadelphia
The Eagles lost a key player on offense (Nick Foles) and defense (DeMeco Ryans). Foles is expected to be out for at least 4 weeks with a fractured collarbone. Taking his place is Mark Sanchez and depending on who you ask, Sanchez may be a better fit in the Chip Kelly offense than Foles. I would not be surprised in the least to see Sanchez make a big splash on Monday Night against the Panthers. LeSean McCoy is also someone I like this week. This has all the makings of a 30-10 win for the Eagles with positive fantasy production coming from all angles. McCoy, Sanchez, Jeremy Maclin and even Zach Ertz. Carolina is reeling right now and a road game on Monday night is not a great place to be when things aren't going well. Load up on your Eagles this week in what should be a great match up.
Pittsburgh
The Ben Roethlisberger Express leaves the station and arrives at New York to play the Jets this week. Pittsburgh has been lights out on offense lately, much in part to Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and LeVeon Bell. The Jets woeful secondary is a great match up for the Steelers passing game, especially Brown and Bryant. This looks like another big win for team black and gold with plenty of opportunities for fantasy points.
San Diego - Bye, Next three games (OAK, STL, at BAL)
Seattle
The Seahawks have a second consecutive home game, but things aren't the same with the Seattle defense. They let Oakland get back in the game last week and if it weren't for a defensive score, Oakland would've been right with them in clutch time. As it was, the Raiders still had a chance to win the game. Russell Wilson and company will have to do better if they want to keep winning games. The losses of Golden Tate and Percy Harvin are taking a toll. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are decent receivers but the offense is lacking outside of Marshawn Lynch. Look for Lynch to control this game and be a threat from the beginning. I don't see a lot of value in Russell Wilson right now, because the running game is taking center stage and the offensive weapons are few and far between. The fantasy value is dwindling in Seattle, but I will say this, Wilson and the Seattle receiving corps has a great playoff schedule down the stretch. If they can figure things out on offense, they can be a nice find for weeks 14, 15 and 16.
San Francisco
To me the 49ers are not a strong fantasy driven team. They have some producers here and there like Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree, but the consistency is just not there. Jim Harbough has never been a jailbreak type of offensive coach and Colin Kaepernick isn't a good enough pocket passer to make a difference as a reliable week to week quarterback. One player that has my attention that I want to mention is Bruce Ellington. I am starting to warm up to Ellington more and more. He is learning the ropes and is slowly getting more involved in the offense. By the end of the year he could start to see some consistent targets and should be on the minds of dynasty teams. I like his chances making a fantasy splash more if Harbough wasn't in the picture. Come next year, that might be the case. Until then, the potential is high with this kid.
St. Louis
The Rams struggled to do much on offense against San Francisco last week, but their defense woke up in a big way with 8 sacks on Colin Kaepernick. They have a tough match up this week at Arizona. Don't expect much from the running game, however if Jeff Fisher is smart, he'll give Tre Mason more carries this week to try to and find open space against the Cardinals strong run defense. Austin Davis and the passing game will most likely be front and center this week. Kenny Britt, Jared Cook and Stedman Bailey should all see an increase in targets this week, but the scoring will be hard to come by. The Rams have beaten Seattle and San Francisco, but I expect Arizona to control this game and win by a touchdown or more when it's all said and done.
Tampa Bay
The Bucs seem to be done with Doug Martin, which leads me to believe that Bobby Rainey and Charles Sims will be the team's rushing threats from here on out. Both Rainey and Sims are excellent pass catching backs with the opportunity to put up strong fantasy numbers. How they will be used is still undetermined at this time, but I would be shocked if Sims doesn't get a long look to see what he can do. This week's match up against Atlanta is perfect match up for the Bucs running game. Monitor this situation to see who will start this week. Both are worth a flex option especially the one named starter. Mike Evans is making the most of his rookie campaign as he continues to be a go-to option for Mike Glennon. Vincent Jackson's needle is pointing down and Mike Evans is pointing up. Look for Evans to continue to see more looks going forward. Update: Josh McCown has been named starter. Lovie Smith may like his veteran leadership, but Glennon is the better option when it comes to fantasy production distribution. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are more valuable with Glennon than McCown, in my opinion. We'll see how this goes, but this is a slight downgrade across the board, in my opinion.
Tennessee
The Titans return from their bye week to play at Baltimore. The Ravens were embarrassed on Monday night at Pittsburgh. I can see them bouncing back in a big way at home. In the same breath though, this Ravens team is weak at corner with Jimmy Smith (foot) still out. Wide receivers have been very successful against the Ravens all season. That could continue for Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Delanie Walker this week. Zach Mettenburger struggled some in his first start, but he also passed for 299 yards and two scores. The more I look at it, I like this match up for the Titans receivers. Both Wright and Hunter could have some value this week. Hunter led the team with 10 targets in the last game. It's clear that he'll be the go-to deep threat for the Titans with Mettenburger under center. What that means for Kendall Wright is not clear, but Wright is too good of a player to be phased out of the offense.
Washington - Bye, Next three games (TB, at SF, at IND)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com