Arizona
This is not a good week to have any Arizona Cardinals in your lineup. Not only are they playing at Seattle, where teams average only 14 points a game, but there are several Cardinals players who are banged up with injuries. Larry Fitzgerald suffered a concussion last week and has yet to be cleared. Carson Palmer has an ankle sprain, but is expected to play through it. Plus Andre Ellington has a thigh injury that could keep him sidelined at least through practice this week. This is not a good match up at all for Arizona. Your best move may be looking elsewhere.
Atlanta
The Falcons are finishing their nightmare season with a Monday night road game at San Francisco and home vs. Carolina. The 49ers have allowed an average of 13.3 points per game in the last three games. Steven Jackson has been a nice fantasy start recently, but that buck may stop on Monday night. Matt Ryan is also someone who slides down the rankings list this week. In the last six games against San Francisco, opposing quarterbacks have 5 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. The trickle down effect will be felt with Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Harry Douglas. A stray touchdown may come, but the likelihood of Ryan throwing more than one touchdown pass is slim.
Baltimore
The Ravens are still alive in the AFC playoff race thanks to two consecutive late-game heroics. This week they return home, but will face the Patriots coming off a loss. If Baltimore earns a playoff berth, they will have definitely earned it. They play at Cincinnati next week in what could decide the AFC North title. The Patriots have allowed back to back 300 yard passing games to CLE and MIA, which is good news for Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta. Jacoby Jones also could figure into mix. The lack of a running game also fuels more pass attempts. There may be some good value for Baltimore this week against a depleted Patriots defense that has struggled lately.
Buffalo
The Bills put an end to the Jaguars three-game winning streak last week and will look to do the same against the rival Dolphins this week. These two teams have been rivals for a long time and when the game takes place in Buffalo, especially in December, all records are out the window. Earlier this year, Thaddeus Lewis led the Bills to victory at Miami, but now EJ Manuel is healthy and up to the task. I'm expecting a fairly low scoring game, but Fred Jackson and/or C.J. Spiller could wind up with a few big plays and therefore warrant fantasy consideration.
Carolina
Carolina is now in the driver's seat to win the NFC South. They control their own destiny if they win out against New Orleans this week and take care of Atlanta on the road in week 17. New Orleans has shown they are a different team on the road than at home, especially on defense. Look for Carolina to play ball-controlled offense with a strong running game and timely passes. The Panthers running game has improved in recent weeks, led by DeAngelo Williams with contributing efforts from Mike Tolbert. Cam Newton will spread the ball around, but his favorite target has been Greg Olsen. Consider Olsen a middle TE1 this week with the chance of a score.
Chicago
The Bears are the favorites to win the NFC North, however they must win at Philadelphia this week and they have a tough game against the never-say-die Packers in week 17. Jay Cutler returned from a sprained ankle last week, but he showed some rustiness with two interceptions. The Eagles have not been good against opposing quarterbacks lately. If it weren't for the snow game, it's possible that they would've allowed 300+ yards passing in each of the last three games. Carson Palmer and even Matt Cassel found success against the Eagles, who lost three members of their secondary last week to injury. What was an already reeling pass defense, becomes even more of a concern this week and going forward. This is a great match up for Cutler and the Bears offense. You shouldn't have any reservations starting Cutler, Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Tight end Martellus Bennett is also fairly high on the tight end rankings, especially after his six-catch game last week. He now has 11 catches in the last two games.
Cincinnati
The Bengals return home for the last two games of the season. This week, Minnesota comes to town, followed by Baltimore in what could decide the AFC North. Even though the Bengals have won three of their last four games, they appear to be a team with question marks on offense and defense. Perhaps the home stretch will play to their favor and build confidence when they need it the most. This week's game is a good match up against a Vikings team that has given up the farm to Josh McCown, Joe Flacco and Nick Foles recently. This is good news for Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. By the way, Marvin Jones is on another touchdown streak with a score in each of the last two games. He now very quietly has 9 touchdowns this season. He has only 10 catches in the last three games, but his presence in the red zone shouldn't be ignored. He doesn't get a lot of snaps and routes run per snap, but he has been successful when called upon this year.
Cleveland
The Browns have lost five straight games, despite the dominance by WR Josh Gordon. This week they will go on the road to the New York Jets in what should be another strong game for Gordon and the passing game. The Browns don't have a very formidable running game, so expect to see plenty of targets to Gordon and potentially Jordan Cameron. Willis McGahee (concussion) is expected to return this week, but there's also the emergence of Edwin Baker and Chris Ogbannaya is still in the mix. It could be another week of the running back with the hot hand gets the carries. This is not good news from a fantasy perspective.
Dallas
The Cowboys are somehow still in the NFC East race, despite a crushing loss to the Packers last week. Their defense has been the talk of the league, but not in a good way. Teams are scoring at will on the Cowboys, scoring 35.2 points against them in the last five games. Dallas is losing the time of possession battle, especially in the last few games. As a result, it is limiting the opportunities on offense. Tony Romo and company have a decent match up against Washington this week, but records aside, this is a rivalry game and Washington will come to play. I'm not expecting a big game for Tony Romo. In fact, if I had the choice, I'd rather have Kirk Cousins in this match up.
Denver
The Broncos are coming off their first and only regular season home loss. They play their remaining games on the road at Houston and at Oakland. This is a good match up for Denver, but remember, we saw Houston play inspired football at home vs. New England a few weeks ago. All but one of Houston's games at home were decided by 7 points or less. As good as this looks on paper, I would not be surprised to see Houston give Denver a tough game. Ultimately Denver should win, but don't be surprised if the Texans pull up their bootstraps and give Denver a run, at least in the first half. Start your Broncos as normal. A closer game favors more points from Peyton Manning and company. A scenario that includes a close game is a preferable fantasy situation.
Detroit
Last week's late-game loss to the Ravens sure looked like the wind was completely removed from the Lions' sails. They still have a chance at the NFC North title, but they will have to win out against the New York Giants and Minnesota and hope Chicago loses to Philadelphia and Green Bay loses to Pittsburgh. Then Green Bay would have to beat Chicago in week 17. It's a long shot for the Lions, but there's still hope. I can see them moving the ball well against the Giants this week, or falling flat on their face knowing that the odds aren't in their favor. Calvin Johnson looked tired against the Ravens. He looks like he's playing through a lot of pain. I'm sure there are several fantasy teams that are relying on him to come through this week. I'm not feeling too confident about him having another big game, especially if the Lions fold up their tent and fade away. For Calvin, a so-so day at the office is 5-6 catches for 80 yards. That may be what we see again this week. I'm not expecting a 100-yard effort with a score, but I've been proven wrong before. The loss to Baltimore is going to haunt the Lions for awhile. If we don't see any negative after-effects, I'll be surprised.
Green Bay
Green Bay is still in the hunt for the NFC North title, after narrowly winning each of the last two games and getting help from other teams in the division failing to seal the deal. Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) has not been medically cleared to play, but all signs point to him suiting up against the Steelers in a must win situation. If Rodgers plays, elevate the status of Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin. Even Andrew Quarless deserves some attention this week as a possible tight end start. Again, this is based on Rodgers playing. Randall Cobb (leg) is starting to get some practice reps in but has not been cleared to play. Even if he does play, I would be a little leery starting him in his first game back, unless he looks as good as new in practice and warm ups.
Houston
The Texans have lost 12 games in a row and must face the Broncos in their last home game of the year. Houston tends to play to their level of competition, which leads me to believe there may be some fantasy value in this game. I would not be surprised to see Houston hang with Denver, at least for the first half and possibly beyond. Denver has allowed opponents to reach 20+ points in every game but two this year. Houston is a banged up unit, so it also wouldn't surprise me to see them go through the motions in this game and get blown out early. Andre Johnson disappointed his owners last week, but he should bounce back. It's not the offense that I'm concerned about. Can the defense stop Manning and company? If not, it will be a long day.
Indianapolis
The Colts have a tough battle against the Chiefs at Arrowhead in what could be a playoff rematch a few weeks later in Indianapolis. Look for the Colts to play all of their personnel in this game, despite already clinching the AFC South title. Trent Richardson has come on strong lately, especially as a receiving back. He has 9 catches in the last three games and is third on the team in receiving yards in that span. T.Y. Hilton was targeted early and often last week against the Texans. There's a good chance that he will be a highly active receiver against the Chiefs. Da'Rick Rogers drifted back to earth, but should continue to see targets in the last two games of the regular season. He's capable of breaking a big gain on any given play, but he hasn't put together a consistent game that warrants a start as a WR3 or flex option, especially not against the Chiefs defense at home.
Jacksonville
Jordan Todman replaced Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring) last week and recorded 29 touches for over 150 yards. The early word is that Jones-Drew is looking like he may be able to return to the lineup this week vs. Tennessee, but keep a watchful eye on his practice situation to be sure. If Todman does get another start, he's worth starting as a flex option or RB2 with upside. Cecil Shorts (groin) will be placed on IR, ending his season. The loss of Shorts means Jacksonville will turn to Marcedes Lewis, Mike Brown and Ace Sanders to fill the void. Lewis has been playing well lately with a score in each of the last three games.
Kansas City
All eyes on Jamaal Charles again this week. Charles put on the Superman cape last week and carried his owners to great heights. In many cases, teams with him on their roster advanced to the Championship. Does he have one more big game in his bag? Chances are, you or your opponent will be watching him intently all day. It's rare that one player makes such an impact on a fantasy result, but lately Charles has been on the winning side of that occurrence. I read a crazy stat last week about Alex Smith. He tossed five touchdowns, but combined the total yards of each pass combined didn't travel over 15 yards. In other words, Charles and Sean McGrath handled the vast majority of Smith's passing yards last week. All after the catch.
Miami
The Dolphins have won three games in a row and must beat the Bills in cold Buffalo if they are to remain in the AFC wildcard hunt. Ryan Tannehill has eight touchdown passes in the last three games. Brian Hartline, Mike Wallace and Charles Clay each have two touchdowns, while Marcus Thigpen and Daniel Thomas have the other two. Charles Clay was virtually non-existent last week against New England. The Patriots played him like he was a wide receiver, sometimes putting Aquib Talib on him. My guess is that Clay will rebound this week against Buffalo. If the weather is a factor, he could see a lot of short passes and approach 5-7 receptions. I am not expecting this to be a high pass attempt game for Tannehill, especially not in Buffalo.
Minnesota
Minnesota is out of the playoff race, but they can play spoiler three weeks in a row. They beat Philadelphia last week without Adrian Peterson (foot) and they have a chance to knock off Cincinnati and Detroit in the next two weeks. Peterson is expected to be back and Toby Gerhart (hamstring) could also return. The one day rental of Peterson's replacement, Matt Asiata may be just that - a one day rental. Off into the sunset he goes, never to be heard from again. It could happen. I hope he enjoyed the limelight. Cordarrelle Patterson is turning into quite a good late season fantasy threat. He has scored in three straight games and is starting to see increased snaps and targets. Greg Jennings, a Matt Cassel favorite, is also someone to consider once again, especially after a 11-163-1 game last week against Philadelphia.
New England
The biggest story out of New England has to be the disappearance of Shane Vereen. His blistering pace of targets and receptions was thwarted by the Dolphins. I would be shocked if he is not a major part of the offensive game plan this week at Baltimore. Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Vereen figure to be the main recipients of Brady's passes going forward. All three are good starts at Baltimore, but I have a feeling Brady will miss having his big target (Rob Gronkowski) over the middle.
New Orleans
The NFC South is up for grabs with the winner of New Orleans and Carolina being in the driver's seat. Drew Brees has struggled on the road this year, especially against teams with a strong pass rush and formidable running game that can control the clock. Carolina fits that mold well. In the last meeting, Marques Colston was the featured receiver for the Saints. I expect Brees will target the middle of the field against Carolina, but if the pass rush doesn't allow him time to find his open man, there could be problems. Start Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas this week. Brees should once again reach upwards of 40 pass attempts, which is good news from a fantasy perspective.
NY Giants
The Giants are not playing good football right now. Eli Manning has 25 interceptions with two games to go and now it's looking like Victor Cruz (knee, concussion) won't be playing in the last two games. This opens the door for Rueben Randle and Jerrel Jernigan to get more reps. Of course, their success hinges on the ability of Eli Manning to get them the ball. The game this week at Detroit does not help matters, especially if Detroit still has something to play for.
NY Jets
The Jets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. There is nothing to play for except pride. I wouldn't be surprised if the team struggled in the last two games, beginning this week against Cleveland. Santonio Holmes may be the best chance for any fantasy value, but lately he's looked like a shell of his former Super Bowl-winning self. Stay away from Jets this week.
Oakland
The Raiders play at San Diego this week after being abused by the Chiefs at home. The Chargers are coming off a big win at Denver and have their sights on the last AFC wildcard berth. This is not going to be a favorable match up for the Raiders, but I do think there is some fantasy value to be had. Rashad Jennings proved this year that he deserves a starting running back job in the future. He is a decent fantasy start this week and could exceed 20-25 touches in this game. Andre Holmes and Rod Streater have been the Raiders go-to options in the passing game over the last three weeks. Both are options to consider at the flex or WR4 position. Matt McGloin has thrown two touchdown passes in each of the last two games. He has the chance to put up decent numbers this week, especially in garbage time, if San Diego is able to get out to a sizable lead.
Philadelphia
The Eagles are still in the hunt for the NFC East title after Dallas choked away their chance to take control. Philadelphia will host the Bears on Sunday Night Football, but this game won't have any bearing on playoff chances, if Dallas beats Washington earlier in the day. The Eagles lost three defensive backs to injury last week, which is not good news for a team that will be facing Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. Defensively, this could be a nightmare for Philadelphia, but offensively they may be able to keep pace. LeSean McCoy has a very good match up, however the Bears are expecting Lance Briggs (shoulder) to return this week. Briggs' return should help the Bears porous rushing defense immensely. That's not to say McCoy and the Eagles offense won't be able to have success. Nick Foles, McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper and Zach Ertz are strong start this week. Ertz in particular has three touchdowns in the last three games.
Pittsburgh
Mathematically, the Steelers are still alive for a playoff berth, but they need to win out and get a lot of help. This week they will have to travel to Green Bay and try to beat the Packers who are expecting Aaron Rodgers to return. This could be a high scoring game that would feature plenty of fantasy opportunities for Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell, Heath Miller and Emmanuel Sanders. Ben Roethlisberger should also benefit this week. Green Bay has allowed a 300-yard passer in two of the last three games, allowing seven touchdown passes in that span.
San Diego
Ryan Mathews has come on strong lately, taking away some of the thunder that Danny Woodhead managed to accrue in the first half of the season. Mathews has back to back 100-yard rushing games with three 100-yard efforts in the last five games. He also has four touchdowns in the last six games. Keenan Allen is looking like a strong candidate for rookie of the year. He has scored four times in the last two games and remains the go-to option for Philip Rivers against the Raiders this week. Allen had a 100-yard game against Oakland earlier in the year that included his first touchdown in the league. You could say his first big game came against Oakland. Jamaal Charles ate up the Raiders as a pass-catching back. It's entirely possible that Danny Woodhead could see a lot of looks this week. He had nine catches in the previous meeting.
Seattle
The Seahawks host the Cardinals this week in their last home game before the playoffs. Just a reminder, Russell Wilson has never lost at home. I don't expect Seattle to shut out the Cardinals like they did the Giants, but I do expect them to score over 20 points, which should be enough to win the game. Teams have a way of falling apart defensively at Seattle. Wilson should rack up at least two touchdowns in this game and also get some rushing yards as well. Percy Harvin (hip) is looking like he may not be able to play until the playoffs and even then it still may be a risk if he continues to have pain in his surgically repaired hip. From a fantasy sense, Harvin wasn't meant to be.
San Francisco
The 49ers host the Falcons on Monday Night. This is a great match up for the 49ers, including Colin Kaepernick. Atlanta has the worst defense when it comes to drives resulting in a score, not to mention San Francisco is starting to click with all of their horses back (namely Michael Crabtree). Frank Gore, Kaepernick, Anquan Boldin, Crabtree and Vernon Davis should all benefit against the Falcons poor defense. Start them all and watch your team win the Championship on Monday night.
St. Louis
The Rams will host the Buccaneers this week. Expect to see plenty of touches from Zac Stacy and pencil him in once again for RB1 numbers. Stacy and the Rams handled the Saints last week. Look for Stacy to produce more of the same. The Buccaneers have a decent run defense, but expect Stacy to see upward of 25 touches, including targets as a receiver. No Rams player had more than four targets last week. The running game led the way and that's how they like it. Stacy is the only true fantasy threat on the team.
Tampa Bay
The Bucs travel to St. Louis where the Rams stopped Drew Brees and company in their tracks. Mike Glennon is going to have to deal with the Rams pass rush that is especially good at home in the dome. Short, quick passes may be the best answer for the Buccaneers. This benefits Bobby Rainey, as well as Tim Wright and potentially Vincent Jackson if he can cut his routes short. Bobby Rainey will have a chance to get some rushing yards in this game. A good running game can neutralize a strong pass rush. Don't be surprised to see Rainey have a lot of carries, especially in the first half as Tampa Bay tries to establish a rhythm on offense.
Tennessee
Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker were Ryan Fitzpatrick's main targets again last week. I expect to see more of the same at Jacksonville. Wright had 12 receptions for 150 yards on 20 targets in a game that featured a second half comeback for the Titans. Chris Johnson also figures to play an important role this week. The Jaguars defense has allowed 17 rushing touchdowns and 27 passing touchdowns. In other words, this is a good match up for Fitzpatrick, Johnson, Wright and Walker. Justin Hunter, was inactive last week due to a violation of team rules. He is expected to play this week and could wind up with a big play. As for consistency though, Wright and Walker are the two biggest fantasy threats. Fitzpatrick is locked onto one or the other in the passing game. If one is not open, the other will probably see a pass thrown their way.
Washington
This game against Dallas is all about Kirk Cousins and his ability to exploit the Cowboys weak secondary. Dallas has struggled on defense, especially in the second half and Cousins has shown he can make plays on the road, so doing so at home against a porous defense shouldn't be an issue, right? If you have Cousins on your team, should you start him for the trophy this week? Dallas has allowed four touchdown passes in each of the last two games by Josh McCown and Matt Flynn. Six of the eight touchdown passes allowed by Dallas came in the second half. Cousins threw three touchdown passes last week, which further solidifies the interest in starting him against Dallas. It's not a foregone conclusion that Cousins will be one of the Top 5 quarterbacks this week. Consider starting him only if you don't have a viable alternative with an excellent match up. Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon are must starts. Garcon is four receptions away from 100. He might get that by halftime. Cousins targeted him 10 times last week, including a 53-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Santana Moss is also someone to consider as a startable receiver. He had 8 catches on 9 targets last week, including a late three yard touchdown.
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