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Arizona
Andre Ellington (knee) did not play last week and is no sure bet to play this week vs. St. Louis. Rashard Mendenhall may get the nod again, but he is a marginal option in what I see as a more pass-dominant approach by the Cardinals. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd have six touchdowns combined in the last four games. They are clicking well with Carson Palmer and should be factors again this week in their home environment.
Atlanta
Go figure - Roddy White finally has a good game and the Falcons were victorious. Steven Jackson also was sharp with a two-touchdown game. The match up this week at Green Bay could hang on the availability of Aaron Rodgers (collarbone). If Rodgers plays, it likely means Green Bay still has intentions of salvaging a playoff berth. If he doesn't play, he's either not ready to return or Green Bay has moved on from this season. The latter is what could make this a better match up for Atlanta. Keep in mind Detroit was able to rack up the yards and points on this unit last week. Either way you look at it, this has the potential to be a good game for Atlanta's offense.
Baltimore
The Ravens have a good match up at home against the Vikings, who have allowed a 100 yard rusher in three of the last four games. Plus last week Alshon Jeffery blitzed the Vikings for 12-249-2. It's probably a good idea to start Torrey Smith and even Jacoby Jones is a legit consideration. If you're looking for a quarterback match up to exploit, you could come out smelling like a rose by starting Joe Flacco. The Vikings have allowed the most fantays points to quarterbacks this year. One other note - tight end Dennis Pitta (hip) could possibly return to action this week or next. Either way, he's a great proactive waiver wire pick up, who could easily pay dividends in the fantasy playoffs.
Buffalo
I would like C.J. Spiller much more if Fred Jackson wasn't in the picture - and vice versa. The problem is, both are very much in the picture. The duo has combined for 20 carries in each of the last four games and 25 carries in three of the last four. This week's opponent at Tampa Bay, has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns this year and only two from running backs. Steve Johnson is a decent option to consider this week. Tampa Bay has allowed 24 passing touchdowns, tied for second worst in the league (MIN, 26). If you're desperate, EJ Manuel could actually have some value as well.
Carolina
I would definitely condone starting Cam Newton this week. If Carolina can move the ball against New Orleans early on, Newton could be in line for a big game. If the Panthers find themselves behind, he could also have a productive game, especially in the second half. The early word is that DeAngelo Williams (thigh) will play this week and don't underestimate him. Williams has averaged 19.1 non-PPR fantasy points per game against the Saints in the last six meetings, including a 210-yard effort the last time he faced them. I also think Mike Tolbert and his bruising ways will continue to play a role. He has six touchdowns this year and could easily get number seven in a goal line situation.
Chicago
Jay Cutler (ankle) may be back this week against the Cowboys. If he is, look for him to find his favorite target, Brandon Marshall early and often. Oftentimes a quarterback will target a player he's comfortable with. There may not be a better example of this than Cutler and Marshall. That's not to say Alshon Jeffery won't be productive, but if Cutler is the quarterback, there's a good chance that Marshall outperforms Jeffery. By the way, Dallas has allowed 36 passing/rushing touchdowns this year. Only seven other teams have allowed more. This is a good sign for the Bears offense, including Matt Forte. Dallas, by the way has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this year. My take - start your Bears.
Cincinnati
The Bengals host the Colts this week, who are a middle of the road match up. I don't see a high scoring game by Cincinnati, so don't expect big numbers from Andy Dalton and company. I don't love the match up, but you have to play A.J. Green. Giovani Bernard has been on a down trend lately and that may continue. If you have a better running back option, I would consider exercising that option.
Cleveland
Josh Gordon is a must start - regardless of who the quarterback will be. Brandon Weeden (concussion) may not be cleared for this game, but Jason Campbell (concussion) is looking like he'll be available. The Browns travel to New England this week and Josh Gordon will draw the coverage of Aqib Talib. You can't bench Gordon, but I'll be surprised if he's able to have another big game (his third in a row). Andre Johnson didn't seem to have difficulty against Talib last week, so that's in Gordon's favor.
Dallas
I mentioned last week that DeMarco Murray could have a big game that would catapult him into a strong finish to the fantasy season. He proceeded to total 100+ yards with three touchdowns, and this week, he'll go against the Bears, who have allowed a 100 yard rusher in eight of the last ten games and nine of the last 12 games. Yeah, you start Murray and you don't look back. Lance Briggs still isn't practicing and the Bears middle linebacker crew is still porous. Run, don't walk to get him into your lineup.
Denver
Knowshon Moreno proved his worth last week, totaling 90 yards and touchdown on a sore ankle. Monte Ball also contributed over 100 yards rushing, and Peyton Manning threw for over 400 yards with five touchdowns. The Denver offense is mighty good, but this week's opponent Tennessee has allowed a league low 8 touchdown passes all year. If anyone can break that trend, it's Peyton Manning, especially at home. Eric Decker was the big winner last week, but don't count on him being a huge factor this week. In other words, don't chase points and don't rank him higher than he should be. If you have a better wide receiver option, take it. I like Moreno and Ball in this game. Both are valid fantasy starters, especially Moreno. It's entirely possible that Denver sits Julius Thomas (knee) once again this week. Be prepared to insert another tight end into your lineup if that's the case.
Detroit
If Detroit is going to win the division and have a chance against one of the two wild card teams, who project to have a better record than them, they will have to win games like this on the road. Philadelphia is a good match up for Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush. The only concern is Calvin Johnson's knee. Don't be too worried unless he misses Friday's practice. Stafford, Bush, Johnson and Joique Bell are good starts this week. Nate Burleson, who had a goose egg last week, is someone to consider as a what the heck flex, but he'll be hard to trust until he produces on a consistent basis. So far that has not been the case.
Green Bay
In my opinion all Green Bay starters are luke warm, unless Aaron Rodgers is cleared to play. Matt Flynn had big time troubles at Detroit last week. He'll be at home vs. Atlanta this week, but can you still trust him to make big plays? The Falcons give Green Bay a decent match up, but Flynn lost a lot of points for me with his pitiful performance on Thanksgiving. Eddie Lacy also struggled to gather any momentum in the blow out loss. I don't see that happening against Atlanta, but if the Packers can't score (13, 13, 26, 10 points scored in last four games), Lacy won't be that effective. Monitor the Rodgers situation carefully and make adjustments accordingly. Atlanta is a good match up, but the Packer have struggled on offense lately, which could cancel that out. If I had to guess, Flynn gets one more start.
Houston
Ben Tate couldn't do anything against Jacksonville two weeks ago, but he rushed for 103 yards and 3 touchdowns against New England one week later. Go figure!? In the near win against New England, I think Tate gathered some confidence and I believe his rib injury is no longer a concern. He is the clear lead running back going forward in my opinion, which bodes well for a strong finish to the fantasy season. Keep in mind, he's auditioning for a job next year with a team to be determined. In my opinion, Tate is a good RB2 start this week. By the way, Andre Johnson is a huge play. Jacksonville allowed the big game to Josh Gordon last week (10-261-2) and two of the last three games, an opposing quarterback has thrown for at least 370 yards. By the way, Jacksonville's three wins this year - all came on the road. This week's game is at home. I am expecting a back and forth battle that should yield plenty of fantasy points all around.
Indianapolis
Here's my prediction - Andrew Luck has over 40 pass attempts in this game. Cincinnati does a good job against the run, which makes teams one-dimensional. Andrew Luck thrives when forced to pass often, so that may be a fantasy blessing in disguise. The Bengals have allowed only two rushing touchdowns to running backs this year and the last time a back scored a touchdown was week three. If you have Donald Brown, you may want to look elsewhere. When the running game struggles, the Colts quickly abandon it. T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener may each finish with 7-10 catches. Don't rule out Darrius Heyward-Bey in this game either.
Jacksonville
The Jaguars have won three of their last four games - all on the road. Will they be able to continue their impressive play at home? In home games this year they scored 14, 10, 6, 3, 2 points (most recent first). Houston brings their 10-game losing streak to Jacksonville this week, but who's the better team? That's to be determined. From a fantasy perspective, I would start Maurice Jones-Drew and Cecil Shorts. Ace Sanders has come on strong lately with 20 receptions in the last three games. As a result, he's a strong flex wide receiver to consider. If you're looking for a Def/St unit to start, Jacksonville is not that bad of a choice. Houston has allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing team's defenses this year.
Kansas City
The Chiefs defense has essentially done an about face compared to their first nine games of the season. They have allowed 27, 41 and 35 points in the last three games (two of which were against Denver). Their defense has struggled, but the offense has turned it up. This week's opponent is at Washington, who have improved on defense compared to earlier in the year, but they are still a team that brings a good match up for opposing offenses. Jamaal Charles is still a must start, but his reception totals have dropped considerably (8) in the last three games. Contrary to Charles, Dexter McCluster has 17 receptions in the same three game span. He is someone to consider as a what the heck flex option. Getting back to Charles - Washington has allowed 17 rushing touchdowns this year - most in the league.
Miami
The Dolphins play at Pittsburgh this week. This also is the return game to Pittsburgh for former Steeler, Mike Wallace. Something tells me he has this game circled. He has had two strong games in a row now. Can he make it three against his former mates? Aside from any Wallace vs. former team story line, I don't see a productive fantasy game from the Dolphins. Brian Hartline may have a few plays in him, but I don't think we'll see him have a game like he did last week. In other words, don't chase the points here.
Minnesota
Adrian Peterson has his work cut out for him this week at Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed two rushing touchdowns to running backs all year - one of which came last week by LeVeon Bell. Peterson is not someone you bench, because he'll be used often regardless, but if he only manages to reach 60 yards rushing, you'll know why. The quarterback situation is up in the air with Christian Ponder sidelined with a concussion. For what it's worth, Matt Cassel targeted his favorite receiver, Greg Jennings seven times in in a relief effort last week that began in the third quarter.
New England
You know about Rob Gronkowski and Shane Vereen, but arguably the biggest Patriot over the last three games is Julian Edelman. Edelman has 21 receptions for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns in that span. His 21 receptions ties Vereen for the team lead over the last three games. Edelman is someone to strongly consider inserting into your lineup. He quietly has 70 catches on 101 targets this year and he is evolving into the Welker role more than Danny Amendola has.
New Orleans
The Saints are coming off a humiliating effort against the Seahawks. They will have another tough match up against the Panthers this week, and then again two weeks later. In prior games against Carolina, Drew Brees has exploited the Panthers' bend-but-not-break secondary, throwing many short-ranged passes that gain 6-7 yards per completion. If you recall, this is also what Tom Brady did against Carolina a few weeks ago. Expect to see a lot of involvement in the screen game, as well as short, underneath routes. This benefits Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham. All four are legit fantasy starts.
NY Giants
The Giants travel to San Diego this week, who have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns in the last five games. This bodes well for Andre Brown. Outside of Brown and Victor Cruz, I can't suggest another fantasy worthy start on the Giants offense. Rueben Randle is a possibility, but he has not been consistent. Hakeem Nicks is a shell of what he used to be. If he can't turn on the excitement in a contract year, when will he?
NY Jets
There is not much fantasy value on the Jets, especially with Chris Ivory hobbled by a sprained ankle. If he can't go, look for the Jets to turn to Bilal Powell to handle the rushing duties against Oakland. With Geno Smith under center, I don't see much in terms of fantasy value from a receiving corps that was poor to begin with. Look elsewhere, even against the Raiders. Depending on Ivory's health, Powell may be the only legit start to consider.
Oakland
Rod Streater has come on strong for Matt McGloin and the Raiders offense recently, but so has Andre Holmes. Holmes appears to have found a home with Oakland, after failing to stick on in Dallas. McGloin has gained confidence in Holmes, as evidenced by his 11 targets last week. I am willing to say that Holmes is more than a fluke performer. If you're looking for a wide receiver to give you a spark in the fantasy playoffs, Holmes may very well be that guy, especially with Denarius Moore still sidelined with a shoulder injury.
Philadelphia
The Eagles are tied with Dallas for the division lead in the NFC East and if they are to keep that place, they'll have to win games like this week against the Lions. The match up against Detroit is a good one, especially getting Detroit out of their comfort zone of Ford Field. Nick Foles, DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper are good starts this week. Last week the tight ends were the big winners for the Eagles, but the stats suggest a big performance by the wide receivers. Detroit is 6th worst in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and one of the top teams in fantasy points allowed to running backs. LeSean McCoy is someone you must start, but the match up is not in his favor.
Pittsburgh
Antonio Brown leads all players with 85 receptions this year. He has been a consistent receiving threat for Ben Roethlisberger all season. He has four touchdowns in the last five games and has cemented himself as a must start wide receiver this year, especially in PPR leagues. I am expecting a low scoring game against the Dolphins, so Brown's outlook may not be as good as it's been in past weeks. Miami has not allowed multiple touchdown passes in a game since Drew Brees threw four in week four. Heath Miller is someone I'd take a look at this week. He has come on strong lately and Miami has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in two of the last three games.
San Diego
Don't look now, but Ryan Mathews is starting to make some fantasy noise. He had more receptions (5) than Danny Woodhead (2) last week and he's starting to get more looks in passing situations that he didn't get earlier in the year. Keenan Allen is still the go-to receiving threat for the Chargers, but the tight end combination of Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green is picking up steam. If you're in need of a tight end for the playoffs, or if you're looking to block your opponent from adding one, consider adding Green to your roster. Danny Woodhead has dropped in value recently and is no longer a lock for a RB2 position in a PPR league. If you have been using Woodhead in that role, you may want to consider other options until he sees more touches.
Seattle
Boy, how good is Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense? You probably won't find a breakout wide receiver performance on the Seahawks receiving corps, because Wilson doesn't throw the ball enough to generate big time stats for his receivers. Having said that, Wilson still manages to put the ball in the end zone. He has 22 touchdown passes this year with 6 interceptions. Five different players have 3 receiving touchdowns and four have four touchdowns. Wilson spreads the ball around and his receivers benefit. The only problem is, there isn't one standout receiver in the group. Percy Harvin could become that go-to man for the team, but right now, he must get healthy before you can rely on him going forward.
San Francisco
The 49ers host the Seahawks and their relentless defense this week. You may think to look elsewhere for fantasy production, but I would still take a look at Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore. Look for Richard Sherman to cover Michael Crabtree, thus leaving Boldin as the receiver Colin Kaepernick will likely turn to. Davis could also find himself matched up on a linebacker, if not Earl Thomas. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Davis having at least one or two big plays. Seattle is a different team on the road and they have shown that they can be run on (Zac Stacy and Mike James come to mind). If Frank Gore has early success, he could be a 20-carry back and potentially make some plays. As good as Seattle was last week, I don't see them handling the 49ers to the same extent.
St. Louis
The Rams will travel to Arizona this week. Only the Jets and the Ravens have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Cardinals this year. Zac Stacy has another tough match up, so tread lightly when considering him for your RB2 slot this week. The Rams have struggled to muster much of a passing threat with Kellen Clemens under center. Tavon Austin has made a few awe-inspiring plays, but other than that, the Rams passing game has been quiet. One expoitation I'd like to point out - Arizona by far has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. If there's ever a week to consider Jared Cook again, this is the week. Remember, the first game of the year when Cook had 7 receptions for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns? That was against Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed a staggering 14 touchdowns to tight ends this year. Let that sink in for a minute. They have allowed a tight end to catch two touchdowns in a game four times. A tight end has scored in 7 of the team's 12 games. You can bet Jeff Fisher will recall this when he's formulating his game plan for this week. Cook is a sneaky play. Are you on board?
Tampa Bay
The Bucs will host the Bills this week, which sounds like good news for Mike Glennon and the passing game. Buffalo has allowed 23 passing touchdowns this year, however they have allowed only three in the last four games. The Bills were a doormat for opposing quarterbacks earlier in the year, but they have shored up that area of their defense lately. Atlanta managed to score 34 points on them last week, so it's not like they turned into a defensive juggernaut. Bobby Rainey has had two tough match ups in back to back weeks. This may be the week he breaks out again. Take a look at him as a low end RB2 this week. Vincent Jackson is a good start that could go either way, but chances are he'll have at least five catches on the day.
Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Titans travel to Denver this week. The Broncos are usually a good match up for opposing quarterbacks, so consider Fitzpatrick a possible fantasy consideration, especially because he also likes to take off and run with the ball. Last week he had 54 yards rushing, his second 50+ yard effort of the season. The news to watch for is the health of tight end Delanie Walker, who suffered a concussion last week. If he's out, Tennessee should target Chris Johnson more, but we could also see more involvement from Taylor Thompson, the back up tight end. Kendall Wright could also be force-fed the ball on short routes. It's possible that he could reach upwards of 10 receptions this week.
Washington
Washington hosts the reeling Chiefs this week, who have allowed 34 points per game over the last three games. They also have allowed two 100+ yard rushers in the same span. This is good news for Alfred Morris. If Kansas City can't fix their problems on defense, they could find themselves one and done in the playoffs. Robert Griffin has seen his carries increase dramatically over the last few games (28 carries in the last three games). If he can find success on the ground and the air, he'll be a productive fantasy quarterback. Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning have thrown 8 touchdown passes against the Chiefs in the last two games. That alone should get you excited about Griffin's chances at home this week. Pierre Garcon has six catches or more in 11 of 12 games this year and remains a top wide receiver in all formats. He should once again be a favorite target for Griffin this week.
Follow or ask questions on twitter @JeffHaseley or email haseley@footballguys.com.