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Arizona
The only game where Andre Ellington had a big fantasy performance was against Atlanta. He was named the team's starting running back when Rashard Mendenhall was inactive with a toe injury. Mendenhall has played (and started) in every other game, thus minimizing Ellington's production. Ellington drops to a flex option at best right now until he shows otherwise. Michael Floyd had a huge game last week and Larry Fitzgerald also found the end zone. Carson Palmer finally had his first game this year without an interception and Robert Housler continued to turn heads and raise eyebrows with his play. There is definitely some fantasy value on this team and aside from the game at Seattle for week 16 and vs. San Francisco week 17, the Cardinals schedule is very favorable. This week's opponent is IND at home. The Colts have allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of the last four games. Advantage Palmer and the Cardinals receiving corps.
Atlanta
The Falcons host the Saints this week, so we should expect Matt Ryan and company to be trailing most of the game. This is normally good news fantasy speaking, but the Saints have a way of controling the clock and minimizing opponent drives. That's not the best news for Harry Douglas, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Harry Douglas has been on fantasy fire lately with 35 receptions in the last five games. He is still a good play this week and I also think Roddy White will rise to the occasion with a respectable game. This once big rivalry game has lost it's luster this year, but I expect the Falcons will put forth a good effort at home on Thursday Night Football.
Baltimore
Ray Rice took advantage of the Bears run defense, which continues to fade since the loss of Lance Briggs in the middle. Rice may have helped a few owners last week, but don't expect to see something similar this week vs. the Jets. On the flip side, Joe Flacco may have some success against New York, who has given up nine touchdown passes in the last three games, including two 325+ yard passing games. Torrey Smith is someone to consider this week as a WR3 or low end WR2 play. The opportunity is there for him to thrive.
Buffalo
Bye - Next three games, ATL, @TB, @JAC
Carolina
As good as Cam Newton was against New England, I fully expect the Panthers to ground and pound against Miami this week. That seems to be the weakness on defense for Miami. Look for DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert and of course Cam Newton to see plenty of action running the ball. Williams is a flex option to consider, especially if he can get into a groove. Keep in mind, the chance of him scoring a touchdown will most likely come from a gain of 10 yards or more. Any goal line carries will probably be taken by Tolbert, Stewart or Newton.
Chicago
Josh McCown gets another start this week at St. Louis, while Jay Cutler (ankle) continues to mend. The Rams, have been stingy against the run and the pass this year, but usually not in the same game. One side of the Bears offense should have a good game and I think it will be the running game. Look for Marc Trestman to utilize Matt Forte's speed to neutralize the strong Rams pass rush. There is also a strong likelihood that he will see plenty of screens. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery may be slowed down more than normal, but both are solid producers in the red zone and therefore are decent fantasy plays.
Cincinnati
Bye - Next three games, @SD, IND, @PIT
Cleveland
Chris Ogbannaya has seen his involvement increase over the last few games. Not only does he have 21 catches in the last four games, but last week he ran the ball more, totaling 69 yards rushing. He is a low-end RB2 or flex option this week vs. Pittsburgh, especially in PPR leagues. Jason Campbell appears to have confidence in him as a short-ranged option. I would not be surprised to see his carries increase more as Willis McGahee's carries drop.
Dallas
It's time to start thinking about Miles Austin as a credible fantasy option. He is supposedly back from his hamstring injury and is expected to play this week at the Giants. I'm not crazy about him as a fantasy start, but he's a legit proactive waiver claim (if he's available) with potential to be a strong fantasy start if things go his way. If not, you didn't risk much to acquire him. I like Dallas' schedule going forward (@NYG, OAK, @CHI, GB, @WAS, PHI) and therefore believe Tony Romo is a strong fantasy quarterback for the playoffs.
Denver
If you have any Broncos on your fantasy team, you are in good shape to make some noise in the playoffs. I don't see a let down in sight and right now all key players are healthy (or close to it). Wes Welker (concussion) and Julius Thomas (knee) are both expected to play this week at New England. Montee Ball saw an increase in touches last week, including two vulture touchdowns, but I firmly believe Knowshon Moreno is the main back to rely on going forward.
Detroit
The Lions are hoping to get Nate Burleson (forearm) back this week vs. Tampa Bay. His return will give Detroit an added weapon at receiver that will probably decrease the value of Kris Durham. I expect Burleson to be eased into game action, but that could still mean 4-5 catches this week. Consider him a flex option vs. Tampa Bay. Calvin Johnson continues to put up impressive numbers. If you own Johnson and therefore waited on running back in your draft, you're probably doing OK in your fantasy league. Sometimes, the decision to take an elite player early in the draft is what it takes to be successful. Drafting Johnson in the first round obviously has it's perks.
Green Bay
I have a feeling Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) won't be back until after Thanksgiving. The question is - will his team still be in the playoff hunt or will it be too late to make a move? Green Bay has lost three consecutive games since his injury and stand at 5-5 looking up at Chicago and Detroit in the division. From a fantasy perspective, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson and Jarrett Boykin continue to produce, but not nearly as much as they would with Rodgers under center. Scott Tolzien and company have a fairly decent matchup this week vs. Minnesota. If Green Bay is going to make a run for the division title, they will have to win this game. I think we'll see the Packers pull out all of the stops this week, which is good news fantasy speaking.
Houston
The Texans continue to find ways to lose games, however there's still fantasy value to be had on this team. Andre Johnson, Ben Tate and Garrett Graham are all legitimate fantasy starters this week. Graham has played well, especially lately. He has another 2-3 more weeks of good production, before Owen Daniels (leg) could make his return. Ben Tate and the Texans face Jacksonville in two of the next three games. The Jaguars have given up a league high 15 rushing touchdowns this year. From my vantage point, that's a great opportunity for Tate to pad his stats and to give his owners something to cheer about.
Indianapolis
Right now the Colts are getting more production from Donald Brown than they are Trent Richardson. I still have a glimmer of an inkling that Richardson will eventually win out this battle, but it just hasn't happened for him yet. He's doing what is asked of him, but it's not translating into fantasy production. Brown is the one punching the ball into the end zone and making the big plays to garner more touches. The Colts don't exactly have a grade-A offensive line, but in the same breath that hasn't stopped Brown from performing well. In any event, the Colts' running game has a tough match up this week at Arizona. I am not expecting big things from either Colts backs. This has all the makings of an Andrew Luck "carrying the team on his back" game. I mentioned last week that Arizona gives up the most points to tight ends (by far), so start Coby Fleener and don't look back. This could be a big game for him this week.
Jacksonville
Cecil Shorts had a poor game last week against the Cardinals going 2-22, but this week I think we'll see a big rebound against a Texans team struggling to find an answer on defense. Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't turned on the jets in a game in a long time (75 yards rushing vs. SF is his season high), but he does have three touchdowns in the last five games. The Texans are capable of allowing big plays - see Rashad Jennings' 150-yard game last week. Jones-Drew is looking like a decent flex option, especially if Jacksonville gives him plenty of carries (14, 21, 19 in the last three games).
Kansas City
The Chiefs will look to get back into the win column this week against San Diego at home. Jamaal Charles hasn't scored in three consecutive games and he has not reached 100 total yards in the last two. My thinking is that when this season is all said and done, this stretch of games for Charles will be just a small slump in a strong fantasy season. He dropped a would-be touchdown last week that would've given him a decent fantasy game. He should rebound this week vs. San Diego. Dwayne Bowe is starting to see more looks, which should continue as the Chiefs face tougher competition. This week vs. San Diego and next week vs. Denver are prime match ups for Bowe. Get him in your lineup.
Miami
The Dolphins have a difficult match up this week vs. Carolina so don't expect a lot of fantasy production from Miami. Tight ends have had some success against Carolina this year. In fact, five of the eight passing touchdowns allowed by Carolina have gone to an opposing tight end. Having said that, Charles Clay could have some sneaky value this week, especially if he's used often as a dump off or hot read option. He's coming off a big game 6-90-1, so don't be surprised if Ryan Tannehill leans on him a little bit more than usual.
Minnesota
Adrian Peterson is dealing with a groin injury that is keeping him from being the Super-Adrian we have come to expect. The injury is not expected to keep him out of the lineup, but it could limit his ability to put up big fantasy points the rest of the year. We'll see how he does this week at Green Bay. John Carlson has turned some heads in the last two weeks. I find it hard to rely on anyone not named Peterson for the Vikings, so take Carlson's recent boon of production with a grain of salt. I'm of the belief that you play someone who is hot until they show you otherwise. So having said that, consider Carlson a low end TE1 until he fails to produce.
New England
The Patriots have all of their big guns back in the lineup, most notably the return of Shane Vereen. In two games, Vereen has 15 receptions on 21 targets. If you have him on your roster, get him in your lineup. This week's match up against Denver at home has the makings of a back and forth battle that is loaded with fantasy production. In addition to Tom Brady, Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amedola are must starts. Any others are potential flex options.
New Orleans
The Saints play at Atlanta on Thursday night. Darren Sproles (knee/ankle) did not practice on Monday and may not be able to suit up in a short week. If that's the case, look for Pierre Thomas to have a big role against one of the best teams to run the ball against in the league. Atlanta has allowed a running back to run for 145 yards or more in three of the last four games. Thomas could be next in line for a big game, especially if Sproles is out. He'll pick up the slack as a receiver and could easily wind up with a 100+ yard effort. Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham are also must starts this week with great match ups all around.
NY Giants
I am not concerned with Brandon Jacobs stealing carries, especially goal line carries from Andre Brown. I think the Giants realize that Brown is their main rushing weapon and will continue to feed him the ball. He has 48 carries in the last two games. No other Giants RB has more than five. Dallas is coming off an embarrassing prime time performance against the Saints. Their defensive captain Sean Lee (hamstring) is out and the defense had no leadership against New Orleans. If that continues, Eli Manning and the Giants may have lucked themselves into another win, which would be their fifth in a row after starting the year 0-6.
NY Jets
The Jets struggle against tough run defenses and that's exactly what Baltimore has. The Ravens have allowed just one rushing touchdown this season, which spells doom for Chris Ivory and the Jets. If I were to gamble on a game this week or pick a team for my survivor/suicide league, it would be the Ravens over the Jets. Geno Smith is still the starter despite having rookie difficulties that resulted in several turnovers this season. The Jets are the ultimate Jeckyl and Hyde team. On the road they have just one win - a narrow victory at Atlanta. I'd stay away from any Jets players this week, until they prove otherwise, just say no.
Oakland
Matt McGloin gets the nod again this week while Terrelle Pryor continues to recover from a knee injury. McGloin threw three touchdown passes in his debut game against the Texans. This week the Raiders host the Titans, who will give Matt McGloin a much harder test (even at home). Tennessee has given up a league low 7 passing touchdowns this year, three of which came in week two from Matt Schaub. I will be shocked and awed if McGloin is able to rise to the occasion again this week. On the flip side, the Titans have given up 15 rushing touchdowns this year (tied with JAC and WAS for the league high). As a result, Rashad Jennings is someone to consider as a fantasy option this week. His 150-yard performance against Houston last week have some people thinking he's a good bet to repeat. I'd say the chances are good that he will have a strong fantasy game. If you have him on your roster, try to find a way to get him into your lineup.
Philadelphia
Bye - Next three games, ARI, DET, @MIN
Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger has been a big story for the Steelers lately, passing for 400+ and 300+ yards in two of the last three games, with four touchdown passes in both games. Antonio Brown has been the main recipient of Roethlisberger's passes and is a definite must start every week. If you're looking for a bye week replacement or another receiver to fill the void of someone else in your lineup, consider Jerricho Cotchery. He VERY quietly has seven touchdowns this year, including five in the last three games. The Browns are fourth in the league in passing yards allowed, but all stats are out the window when these two division rivals play each other. We haven't seen Joe Haden on Antonio Brown yet, but I imagine he'll have a fair share of coverage on Brown this week. I see a relatively low scoring game in this battle of AFC North foes. If you have Cotchery, give him a start. He's hot and the opportunity against Buster Skrine is a favorable match up.
San Diego
Keenan Allen has been a big spark for the Chargers this year. Last week he suffered a knee injury and didn't see much action. The knee injury is considered minor and should allow him to return to the lineup. This game at Kansas City doesn't look great on paper for Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen or Antonio Gates, but the Chargers have a way of piling on yardage late in games, especially if trailing close. Danny Woodhead had a down game last week, but I expect him to bounce back with a 5-6 catch game against the Chiefs.
Seattle
Bye - Next three games, NO @SF, @NYG
San Francisco
The 49ers have lost two games in a row, but the needle is pointing up with a big Monday Night game at Washington that could be exactly what the fantasy doctor ordered. Teams that play Washington find it easy to pile on the yards. This is a get-right game for Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. Mario Manningham may also get into the mix. In fact, if you're looking for a wide receiver to take a chance on this week, Manningham is a decent target.
St. Louis
One of the better fantasy plays this week is Zac Stacy. He may not be the biggest producing fantasy running back in week 12, but the opportunity is definitely there for him to have a high degree of success. The Bears run defense has been abysmal since Lance Briggs vacated the middle linebacker spot. Ray Rice became the fifth running back in consecutive games to gash the Bears run defense. Prior to him, Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy, Alfred Morris and Brandon Jacobs reached pay dirt. Stacy has been given the green light by Jeff Fisher as evidenced by his 26, 27 and 26 carries in the last three games. Stacy has made good on his carries, totaling 323 rushing yards and three touchdowns in that span. If you have Stacy, get him in your lineup against Chicago.
Tampa Bay
The Bucs offensive line continues to make holes for their corps of running backs, most recently Bobby Rainey. The Bucs have a big test this week at Detroit. I highly doubt we will see Rainey reach 163 yards and three touchdowns this week, but he does have fantasy value going forward. Backs that total 30 carries in a game usually don't go away anytime soon. I see the Bucs leaning on him down the stretch, that could pay big dividends in your starting lineup. You play him this week and see what he does on the road at Detroit. If he has even moderate success, find a way to keep him in your lineup.
Tennessee
Chris Johnson looked super in the first quarter last week against the Colts, but then the Titans abandoned their game plan and switched to plan B, which was to dump the ball off to Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker and not run Johnson. The match up this week at Oakland looks good on paper for Johnson, but somehow I don't think we'll see him showcased all game long. Wright and Walker were by far Ryan Fitzpatrick's main targets last week. I don't expect that to subside anytime soon. Wright is averaging six catches a game this year and he has 9 catches in two of the last four games. Fitzpatrick has definitely gotten comfortable throwing all kinds of short-intermediate ranged passes to Wright and most recently Walker. Both are good starts this week, especially Wright. Walker is a low end TE1 that could continue to put up big numbers. If he has another good week, he could be a nice surprise for someone in need of a productive tight end for their playoff lineup.
Washington
Washington hosts San Francisco this Monday night in what is a must win game if they are to compete in the wide open NFC East battle. Washington has lost three of four games and four of their last six. Fantasy speaking they have put up impressive numbers, despite the number of losses. I am a little concerned about the Redskins passing game moving forward. Teams are starting to realize that the way to beat Washington is to have more nickel and dime coverage that seals up passing lanes and keeps receivers like Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed at bay. The way to combat that is to run and be successful at it. The success of the passing game could fully rely on Alfred Morris to keep defenses honest. If that doesn't happen, it could be a long game for Griffin and company. Both Garcon (ankle) and Reed (concussion) are day to day and may be limited this week in practice. Monitor this situation carefully, due to the late game and difficult process substituting a replacement for your lineup.
Follow or ask questions on twitter @JeffHaseley or email haseley@footballguys.com.