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Fantasy drafts are reaching a high point this week and especially this weekend as the last full weekend before regular season is upon us. Here's a few tips to help you get the players you want, because chances are, others are thinking the exact same thing. This piece caters more towards a 12-team re-draft PPR league, but some of the principles can be utilized in leagues of other sizes as well. Do you like it when another owner gets upset because you selected the player they coveted? Yeah me too. Every draft has at least two or three spoken snipes. Here's how to take advantage of being on the winning side. Get the player(s) you want without reaching. Be the envy of your league-mates and dominate your draft.
Quarterback
Michael Vick, PHI - The fact that Michael Vick put up 19 fantasy points in limited action in his last preseason game speaks volumes for what he is capable of in Chip Kelly's offense. Yes there is an injury risk, but the reward could be huge, especially in 2 QB leagues. If you really want Vick, even as your QB2, you need to consider him immediately after the Top 12 quarterbacks are selected. Andy Dalton and Eli Manning are usually the next off the board, but if you want Vick, take him as the 13th QB, because he may not make it past the 15th QB selected.
EJ Manuel, BUF - Another rising quarterback to take note of is Bills rookie signal-caller EJ Manuel. In most cases, Manuel is being targeted as a QB2 or QB3, but the upside is definitely there. We've seen other running quarterbacks find success in the league and Manuel is no different. I'm not saying he'll be the next Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson, but the potential is definitely there for him take off running 7-8 times a game. Over a season, that's 650-700 yards rushing on a 5.8 YPC average. Rushing quarterbacks who can put up those numbers are usually found in the Top 10 at the end of the season. If you want Manuel, you need to consider him after Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer go. I've seen Manuel drafted ahead of Ryan Tannehill and even Matt Schaub.
Terrelle Pryor, OAK - A few weeks ago Pryor wasn't even a thought, but it's looking like he might be the quarterback the Raiders will turn to ahead of "always a bridesmaid" Matt Flynn. Like Manuel, Pryor brings a level of athleticism that translates into more fantasy points due to his running abilities. Pryor is moving up the ranks and was a common late round pick in last weekends mocks/drafts. If you want to take a flier on Pryor as your QB3, consider him in round 17 or 18 of 20 round drafts.
Running Back
David Wilson, NYG - The writing is already on the wall that David Wilson has the potential to be a stud running back this year. The only thing keeping him from having that distinction now is his level of pass protection execution and ball security. People may look past that after his 84-yard touchdown run against the Jets last week. David Wilson is a hot commodity on draft day and people in your league are thinking of targeting him as their RB2. To be sure you get Wilson (if that's who you want), consider him after Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Eddie Lacy, GB - Eddie Lacy has not yet been named the Packers starting back, but it's a very clear assumption that he will be after DuJuan Harris was placed on IR likely ending his season. Lacy's lackluster performance in the Packers last preseason game against Seattle has kept him from rising higher among the ADP ranks, but don't let that concern you. Lacy is an excellent running back to target as your RB3 or if you are a student of upside down drafting, a potential RB2. To get Lacy you should target him after the likes of DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore and Lamar Miller. Chances are he won't make it out of round four.
Giovani Bernard, CIN - From the looks of things in Cincinnati, they want Gio Bernard to be a 12-15+ carry back out of the gate. I don't see him as a 20-carry back right now, but he's capable of turning any run into a long gain. He is excellent in space and can be a real threat if he gets past the defensive line. The Bengals are looking to employ a fast-paced game, which means more offensive plays and a greater chance for big gains as the defense is confused. Chances are, other owners are interested in Eddie Lacy and if they can't get him, Gio is their next target. If you want Gio, grab him immediately after Lacy is selected.
Shane Vereen, NE - There is a little reservation in selecting a New England running back, because you never know who or what direction Bill Belichick will lean in any given game. He loves match ups and exploiting weaknesses, which means sometimes players aren't targeted or used as much as previous games. Having said that, I really like Vereen this year and would even consider him as a low end RB2 in PPR leagues. He has the ability as a runner but his receiving ability is what really interests me. The Patriots are expected to use him all over the field, filling the roles left by Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Danny Woodhead. I would not be surprised to see him average 75 yards of offense a game. Chances are there is someone in your league that has similar expectations of Vereen. I've seen him go real high or relatively late. If interested in Vereen, target him after Eddie Lacy and Giovani Bernard. He may even go ahead of those two, if you want to be ultra safe.
Daryl Richardson, STL - The Rams have made it pretty clear that Daryl Richardson will be their starting back to begin the year. From a fantasy perspective he is not getting as much love - mostly due to Isaiah Pead and Zac Stacy waiting in the wings for their chance. There is also concern that HC Jeff Fisher will utilize all backs and therefore limit Richardson's production. I am of the belief that the primary rushing role is Richardson's to lose. If there is one player that could be this year's Alfred Morris, it's Richardson. He is rising up the draft ranks, but he can still be had after the high reward backs are taken. By that I mean Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and Shane Vereen. I wouldn't be surprised to see Richardson finish ahead of Bernard in fantasy points this year, but the breakout factor of Bernard is what is keeping him ahead of Richardson in the ADP rankings.
Mark Ingram, NO - Maybe it's the number change from 28 to 22, but Mark Ingram looks a little different this year. He looks more agile and spry. He even has shown that he can be a good pass catcher, which has limited his fantasy upside in seasons prior. The "I can't quit you" tagline has followed Ingram and it looks like it's going to continue in 2013. If anything, Ingram should approach 7-8 touchdowns and upwards of 200 carries. You'd take that as your RB3 or even RB4 wouldn't you? The only problem is, others are starting to take notice as well. If you want Ingram you should target him as the next back taken after the last true starting back is selected (Chris Ivory or Ahmad Bradshaw). If it were me, I'd target him ahead of Ivory and Mendenhall.
Ben Tate, HOU - There's a lot of reasons to like Ben Tate. He's a very powerful, down hill runner capable of busting through a goal line defense or piling up yardage on 1st and 10. The Texans are being ultra-careful with Arian Foster (calf/back) and may ease him back into the starting running back role. Tate is a great handcuff, especially considering Foster's wear and tear and injury risk. If you want Tate you need to consider him after the last true starting back gets picked, which, like Ingram is around the Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Ivory, DeAngelo Williams territory. In most cases, it's round eight. If I can't get Mark Ingram, I'll target Ben Tate.
The smorgasbord of running backs takes a drop off after Tate, in my opinion. At this point of round nine and ten, you can feel safe targeting any of the below backs. I like them in this order.
1. Bernard Pierce
2. Danny Woodhead
3. Pierre Thomas
4. Jacquizz Rodgers
5. Christine Michael
6. Joique Bell
7. Knowshon Moreno
8. LaMichael James
9. Roy Helu
10. Stepfan Taylor
Wide Receivers
Danny Amendola, NE - In my opinion the sniping at the wide receiver position begins with Danny Amendola. He has shown he can produce high catch games in his time in St. Louis. He should consistently see 5-6 reception games in New England with the off chance that those numbers could reach 7-8 receptions a game. So when should you take him? In my opinion it's right after Randall Cobb and Vincent Jackson. The chances of landing Amendola increase if you have an early draft slot, because that also means you have an early third round selection. I've seen Amedola go in round four and even five, but lately his stock is rising. If you really want him, consider him in the third round or after Vincent Jackson and Randall Cobb.
Pierre Garcon, WAS - If you recall, Pierre Garcon really began to click with Robert Griffin after he returned from his foot injury in the latter half of the season. I believe Garcon will be Griffin's favorite target by a wide margin this year. People are starting to forget about an injury risk with him and believe he is over his foot injury. He hasn't put up huge numbers due to his injury, but the per game averages suggest he could be a Top 20 or 15 receiver. If interested in Garcon, target him after Marques Colston and Reggie Wayne are selected and before Torrey Smith.
T.Y. Hilton, IND - The Colts second year pro already looks like he has turned another corner as a go-to option for Andrew Luck. Reggie Wayne is still very much the team's leading receiving target, but Hilton is gaining ground. Having Wayne opposite him should yield plenty of single coverage, which Andrew Luck will be looking to exploit. Hilton's run after the catch and quick feet make him a viable target over the middle as well as a deep threat. Hilton is climbing up draft boards. To be sure you get him, target him after Torrey Smith and Steve Smith.
Josh Gordon, CLE - There is definitely a high interest in Josh Gordon among owners in your league. He has legit, elite WR skills, but he just hasn't turned the corner yet. Despite the two game suspension to begin the year, Gordon is being targeted fairly early as some suggest his potential merits. There is some risk involved in taking him - he hasn't officially had his breakout yet, plus there's the risk of another suspension, which could be a huge loss. Having said that, if you are interested in Gordon, take him after T.Y. Hilton and before Kenny Britt.
Mike Williams, TB - This is a relatively safe pick at current ADP of WR33 but in my opinion he could go higher. Some people will consider Greg Jennings and Steve Johnson ahead of Williams, because they are both their team's WR1 while Williams is the WR2 behind Vincent Jackson. That may be a mistake. Williams has shown a high degree of success as a red zone receiver for the Buccaneers and outside of Vincent Jackson, Williams is the only other receiving threat on the Buccaneers. In essence, he's the team's WR2, but he is more than capable of putting up WR1 numbers any given week. Consider Williams after both Greg Jennings and Steve Johnson go and reap the benefits.
Golden Tate, SEA, Vincent Brown, SD, Chris Givens, STL - These three are lumped together, because I believe you can take them in any order. All three have come on strong as of late and have the potential to lead their team in receptions and receiving yards. All three are excellent value picks that you can insert as your WR4 position. It would not shock me in the least if one or all three wind up with WR2 value this year. Take a look at these three WRs after Kenny Britt and Anquan Boldin go off the board.
Justin Blackmon, JAC - Blackmon finished the year on high note as a Top 10 WR in the last seven weeks. A four game suspension dampens his value this year, but if you can select him as your WR4 and acquire a fill-in option for the first four weeks, do it. Four weeks will be over quick and remember, you'll have a potential Top 10 WR for 12 weeks of the season that you drafted as your WR4. Target him after the threesome above.
Michael Floyd, ARI - The interest in Michael Floyd is picking up and the news of the Arizona OL taking a hit losing OT Jonathan Cooper for the season means more pass attempts. It's always good to hear coaches talking up players that are making a difference and learning at a fast rate and that's exactly what we've seen from Michael Floyd. I'm not sure I would put him in the Top 25 just yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was there after the first month of the season. The talent and ability is there. Add another year of experience and the addition of Carson Palmer and we've got the ingredients of a breakout wide receiver in the making. If you don't want to go the Justin Blackmon route, consider Floyd immediately after the threesome of Tate, Brown and Givens. If you really like his chances of a breakout, roll the dice on him after Kenny Britt.
Kenbrell Thompkins, NE - What to make of this hail mary selection? People are definitely going overboard for Thompkins, but I wouldn't want to take the risk until after the above players are off the board. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it. He may be the WR2 in New England, but don't forget about Rob Gronkowski coming back, plus Zach Sudfeld and Shane Vereen getting increased reps. Last year the WR2 (Brandon Lloyd) had 74 receptions and 4 touchdowns, in 2011 it was only 51 receptions and 5 touchdowns, in 2010, 48 receptions and 5 touchdowns. Let's not forget this kid is still a rookie and most rookies don't get 50 receptions, let alone 60. Someone may decide to roll the dice with Thompkins ahead of his ADP, but this is where I like him. Round 10 or later and definitely after Michael Floyd.
There is a bit of a drop off after this point of the draft for wide receivers. Of the WRs I'm targeting, I rank them as the following.
1. Emmanuel Sanders
2. Kendall Wright
3. Ryan Broyles
4. Greg Little
5. Reuben Randle
6. Markus Wheaton
7. Alshon Jeffery
8. Keenan Allen
9. Cordarrelle Patterson
10. Andre Roberts
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham, NO - The current landscape of elite tight ends is very small with Jimmy Graham leading the way. Rob Gronkowski is not a sure thing to be among the Top 3, which elevates Graham's status. Chances are Graham won't be there in second round round, especially if PPR is 1.0 or higher. Consider him at pick 1.09 or later.
Rob Gronkowski, NE - Most people aren't targeting Gronkowski until after the top 12-15 WRs are off the board. The word is that he won't be placed on the PUP list, but he could still miss at least one regular season game, if not two or maybe three. The upside to drafting Gronkowski is to have his elite services for most of the season. Draft a serviceable backup for the early games that he'll miss and then reap the benefits. Consider him in the early third round or later.
Jason Witten, DAL - Jason Witten and his 100+ receptions is not that far removed from Rob Gronkowski's value, so consider him anytime after Gronkowski is drafted.
Tony Gonzalez, ATL - After the wave of Top 25 WRs is selected, you should consider targeting Tony Gonzalez, who even in his 17th season is among the top tight ends in the league. His floor is 70 receptions and 7 touchdowns. Look for Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon to go before pulling the trigger on Gonzalez.
Vernon Davis, SF - Shortly after Tony Gonzalez is taken, Vernon Davis should be the next tight end to go. There is speculation that Davis will be utilized more in the 49ers offense this year with Michael Crabtree (Achilles) out of the picture. The 49ers use a two-WR set, which might include Davis lining up as a wide receiver. Davis' floor is not as high as Tony Gonzalez, but he has the ability to put up 7-9 touchdowns and should be targeted often in the red zone.
Jermichael Finley, GB - There appears to be a new sense of desire in Jermichael Finley this year. Perhaps it's because Greg Jennings has moved on, or maybe because he is in a contract year and wants to position himself for a big contract. Regardless, Finley is someone who is moving up the ranks. There may be an owner who values Finley just as much as you, so if you want to be ultra-safe, take him about a round or 10 picks after Vernon Davis.
Greg Olsen CAR, Jared Cook, STL and Kyle Rudolph, MIN These players make up the next tier of tight ends. They will be selected fairly close to one another. After they go off the board, the position drops in value. The remaining tight ends that I would target are in following order.
1. Jordan Cameron
2. Fred Davis
3. Martellus Bennett
4. Zach Sudfeld
5. Antonio Gates
6. Owen Daniels
7. Brandon Myers
8. Tyler Eifert
9. Dwayne Allen
10. Brandon Pettigrew
Follow or ask questions on twitter @Jeff Haseley or email haseley@footballguys.com
