The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. Use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series.
We’re just about at the mid-way point of the 2016 NFL season, so we can begin to see what’s taken place as the true reality of the year unfolding in the football universe. Through seven weeks of the season it’s been clear so far which rookie wide receiver stands out among the rest.
Michael Thomas caught 36 passes over his first six games and leads all rookies in receiving by almost 100 yards. Over the last four weeks, Thomas leas the Saints deep receiving corps in yards and targets, and his 36 receptions on the year are more than any other pass-catcher on the team. Once Thomas grabbed momentum after Willie Snead’s early season injury, he never let it go.
What’s fascinating for studying NFL rookies this year is that Reception Perception was able to chart college prospects in-full for the first time this past offseason. We have something of a log to look back on and compare to their early pro numbers. Michael Thomas was a player Reception Perception looked favorably on, while other models may have flagged his advanced age on draft day, middling college production or not exciting film. Reception Perception certainly was much more positive, and illuminated some of his strengths. Thomas’ 69.4 percent success rate vs. man coverage was above the class average, as were his marks (66.7) against press, while his 82.4 percent success rate vs. zone coverage was second-highest scored among the 21 charted prospects. Scouts liked Thomas clean route running and potential as a possession receiver, but Reception Perception also revealed he could function more as a downfield threat. The Ohio State product’s 76.5 percent success rate on nine routes was the highest score in the 2016 class.
Overall, Thomas scored out positively in Reception Perception as a college prospect. It should be no surprise then to see the methodology still certainly enjoys his early NFL work, as well:
(SRVC denotates success rate vs. coverage)
In his career-best across the board (10 catches for 130 yards) Week 7 game against the Chiefs, Thomas scored incredibly well at defeating man coverage. His 75 percent success rate when facing man coverage is a stellar score for a rookie less than half-way through his rookie season. Thomas’ 76.9 percent success rate vs. press is even more impressive, as the league average sits at around 68 percent. For a rookie to consistently get such clean releases against pro defenders right away, let’s just say that’s notable.
Of course, with all Reception Perception evaluations, we have to flesh these success rates across the route tree in order to properly contextualize the results.
When looking over his route usage chart, we can see the Saints aren’t asking much of Thomas. This is good coaching. In order to get your rookie assets on the field, why not limit what you put on their plate in order to maximize their strengths while not asking them to absorb too much information? Of his 38 routes run against the Chiefs, a whopping 71.1 percent of them were slants, curls or nines.
Thomas did not record a catch on the nine route, so he’s mostly been used on intermediate in-breaking routes. The only other route where Thomas makes much noise from a usage standpoint is the dig, which is a more advanced route. However, Thomas only broke outside one 5.2 percent of his total routes. Again, though, it’s hard to make that a point of criticism when good play and production follow this usage path.
Thomas’ success rates on those slant and curl routes are quite high for a rookie receiver. Even if he came close to matching these numbers over a full-season, with a slight expected drop off in success rates, Thomas’ numbers would be among the best in the entire NFL on those routes.
We mentioned that the dig is an advanced route for receivers, and it takes an integration multiple skills to execute. Thomas blends the technique, quickness and physicality to get the lean on the defenders all together to come out with a perfect success rate on those patters.
Overall, the only area where Thomas showed poorly was in the vertical game. More than one of his deep routes came when aligned on the offensive right side with the Chiefs stellar corner, Marcus Peters, in coverage. There’s a wide gap between Thomas’ 76.9 success rate on nine routes and his current under 30 percent success rate at the pro level. In college, Thomas could use his ability to sell routes and deception to break free on go-routes, but the chore gets much more difficult in the NFL. The Saints don’t need him to be much of a vertical threat with Brandin Cooks on the payroll, but this is one area where Thomas still needs to develop.
So far, Michael Thomas has been a great case study for several of Reception Perception’s key preaching points. He’s become a real force for the Saints offense while only running a small handful of routes. It seems to come up in every article from the series, but diversification of a wideout’s route portfolio appears to be one of the more overblown talking points regarding the position. Thomas looks like he’s destined to be just another in a long list of receivers who make good for their team while just being asked to run a small collection of routes. He has the skills to handle more as his career goes on, but this role is helping him become a focal point faster.
It’s also exciting to see Thomas roll over some of that positivity from his Reception Perception prospect evaluation to his early pro career. He looks like the perfect underneath, big chain-moving receiver from his Reception Perception metrics, and that’s exactly who he has been thus far.
All in all, getting down to the bottom line, it’s hard to put artificial limits on what Thomas can do in the second half of the season. He’s already been the most productive Saints receiver in their last four games and he fits perfectly with what Drew Brees likes to do. His ability to separate versus tight man coverage, and scoring at an outrageously high level on the handful of routes he runs, points to not only an ascending talent, but one melded with a coaching staff equip in knowing what to ask of him. It sounds aggressive, but with Brandin Cooks making it clear this seaosn he is mostly a streaky deep threat, albeit one of the league's best, and Willie Snead settling into a role as just a slot player, Thomas might end up being the best wide receiver in New Orleans, if he isn't already.
Fantasy owners with Michael Thomas on their team might not yet know what they have. What’s clear from the raw numbers is that this is a key player in one of the NFL’s best high-flying offenses. What the next layer Reception Perception helps us tear open is that Michael Thomas has the individual ability to crush the competition when he gets the targets. Look out, NFL, Michael Thomas is coming for oyu if you haven’t learned his name yet.
