Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll use some data to see what has caused Terrance Williams to be a productive fantasy asset.
The old “third year breakout” rule for wide receiver has been replaced with higher expectations coming in the second season. As such, fantasy owners are now digging into the sophomore year NFL receivers for a potential sleeper. One candidate this offseason was Terrance Williams.
Williams was a curious case this summer. While he showed more than a fair share of flashes as rookie, he was not dominant at any point. The Dallas offense looked potentially explosive. Yet, we were unsure just how the target disparity would shake out for Williams with the arrival of Scott Linehan to coach the passing game. After scoring four touchdowns in as many games, it looks like the answers are all trending positive for Terrance Williams.
The question fantasy owners are dying to know is, how will this look for the duration of 2014? Can Williams, and his five targets per game, be a regular fixture in lineups? Let’s dig into some of the Reception Perception data from Williams’ two-touchdown game against the Saints to find out.
Alignment data and targets
In the last Reception Perception post we looked at Brian Quick, a player with the alignment data of a typical X-receiver. Terrance Williams’ data presents a stark contrast. His data is that of a traditional Z-receiver; lined up off the line of scrimmage and on the right portion of the field along side the tight end. While it’s not universal, typically offenses run through X-receivers and they are the traditional number ones. Z- receivers are often complimentary players—although there are exceptions.
Being a Z-receiver is not a damning sentence for Williams. But it does carry complications, especially as he’s the clear number two in Dallas. Linehan’s best wide receiver was Calvin Johnson in Detroit. During his time there, a second option never emerged from the riff-raff. Part of that was talent, but Linehan was also content to feed tight ends and running backs after Johnson, before another receiver. Williams is behind another ultra-talent, in Dez Bryant, and the Cowboys have a few other pass catching options. Couple that with the emergence of the ground game into an elite force, and Williams’ targets will be inconsistent at best:
The victory over New Orleans provided us with target numbers that might prove to be a high water mark. Williams ran 30 routes in the blowout, and was targeted on 23.3% of them. That’s a nice share of the passing game. He actually had one more target than Dez Bryant last Sunday. This will not happen often, but there’s always a chance if the opposition sells out to stop Bryant. The Saints did so on plays in critical situations:
Williams is the right wide receiver (the highlighted player) and runs a simple drag into the end zone. He also appears to be Tony Romo’s initial read on the play, likely due to the defensive response. The effectiveness of DeMarco Murray and the running attack draws the linebackers up, biting on the play fake. Rob Ryan gets overzealous in stopping Bryant in the red zone, and mans up two defenders with him. The result is an easy one-on-one assignment for Williams. Romo delivers a perfect, accurate pass and a touchdown follows. Williams will get opportunities in prosperous situations like this, and already has through four weeks. That is part of why he’s scored at a consistent rate.
The good news is on days like this, Williams does appear to have enough talent to make hay with his chances. He was pretty efficient with his targets, converting 85.7% of them in to catches and scoring twice. Those are very encouraging, but they don’t prove that Williams is a consistently good player yet, or show where he wins.
Route analysis
There is some eye-popping distribution in Williams’ Week 4 route percentage chart. The nine, post and comeback come in at over 20%. Those routes make up 69.9% of his routes run. The slant and routes defined as “other” make up the next most frequent. All other routes only occurred once or fewer in this game.
For whatever reason, Dallas only asks their second year receiver to run a few patterns. I can understand why, as to my eyes he does not look like a clean route runner at this stage of his career. Williams’ movements are not sharp enough; he round off his breaks and doesn’t win at every level of a route’s progression. It’s part of the reason why, despite only being assigned a few simple patterns, Williams is not open consistently:
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Williams’ highest SRVC figure is 50% on post routes. I’ll freely mention that Reception Perception, and particularly SRVC, does not have a lot of context at the moment. However, there is no way around it, that’s not an encouraging revelation. Williams wasn’t available as a reasonable passing target for Tony Romo on the majority of his routes run in Week 4. In fact, most of his PPR fantasy points came on one nine-route. On this play, Williams caught a somewhat contested pass over his right side against a corner who had his back to the ball. The Cowboys receiver was able to back in to the end zone for a score.
That score was an impressive player by Terrance Williams. He made a nice catch in a difficult spot, and finished the job. The problem is, that he isn’t doing the little things well enough for those chances to be frequent. It looks like a fantastic outburst, like his second touchdown, are part of what you’ll have to count on with Williams. That is a dicey proposition week in and week out for fantasy owners.
Success Rate Versus Coverage Data
Given what we already know, none of Williams’ specific coverage data is surprising. It is notable that he struggled with man coverage more often than zone, although that is typical of younger players.
Williams lacks the technique, refined game and advanced moves to beat man coverage with any regularity. Better corners are going to easily shut him down due to his lack of counters and trump cards. Against the Saints, Williams did not face many good defensive backs. And while he got over a few times, he still failed to get open 60% of the times he faced man coverage.
Going forward
Terrance Williams’ Reception Perception data from his best game up to the quarter pole presents a clear conclusion. This player has all the makings of a classic boom or bust, WR3 or WR4 type of player. He does not see the targets to be a volume player. His talent level is fine, but not overwhelming enough to overlook his inconsistent usage. Williams’ low SRVC scores shed light on the reality that he is still an unrefined player, who isn’t getting open on a down-to-down basis.
However, Williams has enough value to be an upside FLEX play. Many teams will follow the Saints’ defensive plan to overcommit to the running game and Dez Bryant. That will leave plenty of big play opportunities, and wide-open red zone looks for Williams. Its very important to remember that, because that alone will cause him to go off some weeks.
If you can find some owner who sees this as the beginning of the breakout, it’s probably wise to sell high. Williams just has a two-touchdown game on national television, while playing for a popular team. His mainstream perceived value might never be higher. If you do choose or are forced to stick with him, you have to build a proper lineup around him. Williams is not an every week starter, as he’ll have a fair share of games where he only sees three targets (like Weeks 2 and 3).
Terrance Williams will be a frustrating decision each lineup decision day. Be prepared to accept some disappointing weeks when you do roll him out there. Also realize that you may end up leaving him on you bench, only to see him put up a 20-plus point fantasy outing.
