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Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll look at the gluttonous nature of Martavias Bryant’s recent touchdown streak.
The wide receiver group of the 2014 NFL Draft continues to provide us with goodness. All the first round picks are producing, and there are almost 10 players that deserve weekly consideration in fantasy lineups. The class has lived up to all the high praise it received leading up to the big event in May.
One of the mid-season bloomers from this strong group is emerging in Pittsburgh. Martavis Bryant has five touchdowns over three games of action. Bryant fell to the fourth-round of the draft due to off the field concerns, and lack of college production. He was buried in a star studded Clemson skill position unit, and did not make much noise until his senior year. However, there was plenty of intrigue with him as a prospect. The talented Bryant is a 6’4 and over 210 pounds big man, with a tantalizing forty-time and vertical jump.
When Bryant found a new home in Pittsburgh, the intrigue grew. Antonio Brown is amazing, Markus Wheaton has some skill and Lance Moore had solid years in New Orleans. What they all lack is Bryant’s size and speed combination. The eye test alone showed that the rookie could bring something that Pittsburgh did not have elsewhere on their roster. Those attributes happened to be something their quarterback had pined for over many years.
It seemed time was the only thing blocking Martavis Bryant from making his way into the lineup. It turns out; it only took until Week 6. His statistical performance has been better than anyone could have expected. Let’s take a look at Byrant’s Reception Perception data from the Week 9 victory over Baltimore to assess his performance.
Alignment Data
Martavis Bryant is still on a somewhat limited pitch count, as he only received 37 snaps in Week 9. However, what you like about the nature of his snaps is the diversification. The Steelers are having Bryant try his hand everywhere.
Bryant’s size, and physical profile, would lead one to view him as red zone threat only—especially early in his career. In reality, the rookie has played at all levels of the field, and in multiple spots. He’s seen a fairly even split between the left and right side of the field. Bryant has also been used on the line of scrimmage more often (59.5%), but is no stranger to being used as a flanker
The most interesting number is the 13.5% of his snaps where Martavis Bryant lined up in the slot. Big receivers get some high leverage opportunities and targets when they face nickel defenders. There were several instances where Bryant used his size, and burst, to his advantage to beat limited slot corners. While, 13.5% is not a high figure by any means, those chances could make a difference for a young player who’s value will mostly come from explosive plays.
Route and Target Analysis
A small sample size can make Reception Perception projects tough. In fact, if a receiver plays less than 20 snaps, that game cannot be used. Bryant played 37 snaps, but only ran 19 qualifying routes. The infamous Cordarrelle Patterson Reception Perception season-long study, posted over the summer, shows the difficulty in using low amount of routes to make conclusions. All that being said, we can still learn a lot from Martavis Bryant’s numbers. His target data gives us a better sample than anticipated:
When Bryant was on the field, the Steelers wanted to make it count. The rookie was targeted on 26% of his 19 routes against Baltimore. On a per route basis, that is a nice target percentage. That figure usually goes with number one receiver, indicating that when Bryant plays he is a featured part of the game plan.
Bryant is rewarding his team by converting on 60% of his targets, and catching passes on 15.8% of his routes. He is not perfect, but has been coming through more often than not. The 20% drop rate does look bad, at first blush. However, that “drop” was not solely the fault of Bryant. He did his job, and broke wide open on an out route. Bryant sat completely uncovered for several second before his quarterback could find him. By that time, the late coverage had caught up and Ben Roethlisberger could not establish a strong pass. The ball hit Bryant in the hands, but it came off target near the ground. Perhaps the rookie should have caught it, but he did his job on the route and just did not get the ball in time.
Just another example of how all numbers need a little context.
Anyone who has followed Bryant’s profile isn’t surprised to see his high number of nine routes at 26.3%. At Clemson, the big routinely made dynamic plays by getting over the top of the defense. The Steelers have used him that way, and on other patterns that allow him to “just do what works”.
Bryant was used on a few screen passes, which allow him to just use his speed to try and get into the open field. The team has also seen fit to call slants, posts and corners for Bryant. These make sense, as he wins consistently at the breaking point of routes. He’ll fly away from corners with ease, and still has time to run through space.
Bryant is not running difficult routes, but he does not have to be a valuable receiver and fantasy asset just yet. Either way, he’s executing his assignments:
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Again, a small sample size, but these are nice numbers by Byant. There are only two poor SRVC scores—slant routes (25%) and curl routes (0%). You have to worry a bit about Bryant’s poor showing on slants, because he ran them on 21.1% of his routes. Bryant lacks the technical savvy to separate when receivers lock into short patterns quickly. The Ravens corners had little trouble blanketing Bryant’s slants.
Other than that, the numbers are great. Bryant posted an SRVC score of 80% on nine routes, which was his most frequently run route. Bryant’s straight-line speed is incredible. Even when a defender has good leverage, or has an early advantage in coverage, Bryant can just accelerate past him effortlessly. He did not record any fantasy point on nines, but his SRVC score gives hope that those will come.
Bryant did record points, and both of his touchdowns, on posts and corners. He is an asset on these routes, because he does not have to be fine or precise in his hip movements. His gifts get him open. However, Bryant did impress on these sorts of routes from an advanced perspective. On one post route, Bryant was able to make a slight movement in his route to get Chykie Brown turned around. The move made it impossible for the corner to cover him. On another, Bryant found the hole in the zones, and just comfortably sat down. The ball arrived on time, and he gracefully fell beck into the end zone for a score. Both of these plays show that Bryant has potential beyond just a size/speed demon.
Bryant is getting high leverage targets, and he is delivering on them. While he isn’t being asked to do much of serious difficulty, he’s winning where Pittsburgh want him to right now. His work against coverage gives major optimism that the best is on its way:
Bryant struggled at time to free himself against zone schemes, albeit in very limited attempts. It’ll take time for Bryant to develop the technical subtleties, and mental study, to work against zones. At the moment, Bryant looks like a strong player when facing man coverage. His 84.6% SRVC against man is on the high-end. His speed gives him a chance to get open on anyone. His size affords him the ability to make plays even when well covered.
Going Forward
In the immediate future, Martavis Bryant does stand to lose a bit of value. His touchdown production is likely unsustainable. He is a rookie, and the odds do not favor him to continue scoring every 1.7 games. Yet, Bryant’s SRVC scores and role clarity should make his fantasy owners, and Steelers fans feel better. Bryant is a good player already. Being limited in assignments, or versatility, does not take away from the overall quality of a football player.
Bryant wins in a specific way, and his SRVC scores show that he is winning, far more often than the alternative. That is an excellent sign for such a still-raw player. The Steelers are also using him in a very clear way that fits his current skill level. He’s running route he can succeed on, not being arbitrarily assigned difficult patterns. Even though the chances are limited, the target per route data shows he is a priority when he’s on the field. There is a chance he can retain his current value.
In the long view, Martavis Bryant is dripping with upside. He’ll never be the Steelers’ number one receiver with Antonio Bryant there. But you are looking at their second option for years to come. He’s a guy people should want in dynasty leagues, and if he isn’t on your team you should try and acquire him now. Physically gifted players, with great quarterbacks and a hot streak to start their careers do not come around often. It’s a perfect storm for steady dynasty value.
Martavis Bryant has a bounty of gifts, and he is putting them to great us on the football field. There have been plenty of touchdowns to enjoy, but there may be more steady production down the line. Intriguing weekly upside, and an exciting future have the fantasy world abuzz about this talented wide receiver.
