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Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll decide what to make of Jeremy Maclin’s impressive 2014 statistical season.
Just about everything Chip Kelly has touched since beginning his NFL head coaching career has turned to gold. Whether it’s the propping up of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez as passable quarterbacks, or getting the best out of role players; Chip Kelly maximizes the talent at his disposal.
In 2013, DeSean Jackson had the best statistical season of his career. When the Eagles chose to jettison him, many were concerned how they would replace that receiving production. The answer was on the roster. This season, from a box score standpoint, Jeremy Maclin is on pace to best Jackson’s output from 2013. He’s already past him in touchdowns scored, and should record more yards and receptions by season’s end.
Just like Jackson, Maclin is having his best season as an NFL player, while under the guidance of Chip Kelly. Maclin is coming back from a torn ACL he suffered last season, which makes his production all the more startling. Nothing has slowed him down. He’s posted multiple high-end WR1 weeks, including a monster two game stretch against Arizona and Houston.
The fantasy season is all but over, except championship games and daily leagues. The majority of fake footballers are only still around to scout for next year’s redraft leagues, and to collect data for upcoming decisions with dynasty rosters. Jeremy Maclin is a pending unrestricted free agent, and many fantasy owners will need to take a stand on how to view him after a tremendous season.
Reception Perception is here to help shed a light on what kind of player Maclin truly is. Let’s take a look at him as an individual, and see what we can learn whether Jeremy Maclin truly broke out this season.
Alignment and Target Data
The receivers in the Eagles’ offense generally play pretty well defined roles. They do not move around much, and play the majority of snaps in one spot. Jeremy Maclin is almost exclusively the right wide receiver.
Depending on the week, Maclin often draws the battle with the opposing team’s best cornerback. Not just because he’s the top receiver threat on the Eagles, but because team’s often use their best cover man on the left side of the defense. To his credit, Maclin has often fought difficult matchups this season. He’s clearly put up numbers throughout those challenges.
This role as the starting right wide receiver is the moneymaker in the Eagles’ passing game. It’s the same position DeSean Jackson played on the team last season. Chip Kelly presents his quarterback with easy throws to make to this player. That’s why both the quarterback and pass catcher amass so many fantasy friendly numbers. The system gives them chances, and it’s why Jeremy Maclin is the sixth most targeted receiver, through 15 weeks, in the NFL:
Week 15 against the Cowboys was one of Maclin’s lower target games. One trend we’ve noticed is that Mark Sanchez has not fed Maclin nearly the same number of targets as Nick Foles did. Maclin has never seen less than six passes go his way, but the double-digit days haven’t been as steady with Sanchez under center.
Against Dallas, Maclin was targeted on 19.4% of the 31 qualifying routes he ran. That’s not an alarming number, but we’ve seen throughout the Reception Perception series that over 20% is the “number one receiver” threshold. Maclin fell below that here, but targets usually are not an issue for him.
When the season began, Maclin struggled a bit with his efficiency. He posted a lower than 50% catch rate in three of his first four games. Lately, he’s reversed that trend. With less targets coming his way, his efficiency has improved. Maclin has posted a 50% or better catch rate in all of the last five games he’s played in. Against Dallas, Maclin needed a long catch and run to salvage his fantasy value. This is why Maclin’s point production has tapered off. He’s been more efficient, but without the bevy of targets, the numbers haven’t been quite so gaudy.
Opportunity is never going to be much of an issue as long as Jeremy Maclin plays under Chip Kelly. The offense is just too good, and Maclin’s role is secured. Fantasy owners must decide if Maclin is a quality enough player to make a significant investment in, especially if he does change teams this offseason.
Route Analysis and Success Rate Versus Coverage Data
Lately, with players like Charles Johnson and Stedman Bailey, Reception Perception has brought you some balanced route charts. Jeremy Maclin’s Week 15 Route Percentage chart is anything but balanced. Of the 31 qualifying routes that Maclin ran against Dallas, 44% of them were curls and nines. Another 38.7% were outs, posts and comebacks.
Jeremy Maclin’s reputation is as a speedy wide receiver. The Eagles appear to use him on nine routes to open things up for underneath players, like Jordan Matthews. Having a deep threat like Maclin gives tertiary receivers, and the running game more space to succeed.
Chip Kelly likes to use his fast receivers on curls and comeback routes, which you do not often see. The sharp breaks at the top of the routes are supposed to be made easier by the player’s speed. With the extra space, the receiver can be more decisive when cutting down field. DeSean Jackson made plenty of plays after the catch on these routes. Kelly has tried to give Maclin these assignments in 2014. However, we’ve finally reached the portion of the study where Maclin falls short: the subtle art of beating the cornerback covering him:
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Maclin’s most commonly run routes in Week 15 were the curl and nine route. He posted below 50% SRVC scores on both. In fact, his 14.3% SRVC score on curl routes is strikingly low. His nine route score was not anything to right home about, as he posted a 42.9% SRVC score.
Maclin did show some good ability on out routes. He was able to time his move to the sideline well, and usually left the cornerback far behind. 10.3 of Maclin’s PTS came from two catches on out routes. Maclin’s only other positive SRVC score came on comebacks, where he posted a 75%.
Its interesting that Maclin scored so low on the two routes he ran the most in Week 15. However, there are on field resons for it, and they come back to Maclin. He lacks the creativity as a route runner to consistently separate vertically. His cuts are not decisive, and that’s why a cornerback does not have trouble sticking with him on curls. Frankly, Maclin is an unimaginative, and poor, route runner. Despite spending six years in the NFL, he has not progressed as a craftsman, and therefore struggles to get open. Maclin does not possess enough athleticism—though not a liability in this phase—to make up for a lack of proficiency as a route runner.
As the right wide receiver, Maclin faced struggling Dallas Cowboys’ cornerback Brandon Carr on most of his Week 15 snaps. Carr is one of the ten worst cornerbacks in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. The matchup was there for Maclin to have a monster fantasy day. However, Maclin struggled on the field, and did not get open very often when facing Carr:
The vast majority of Maclin’s attempts against man coverage featured snaps against Carr. The Cowboys’ corner has struggled to defend most of his assignments this season, but Maclin only posted a 45.5% SRVC score against man. His zone score was not much better, at 55.6%.
The SRVC score, in conjunction with the route charts, is rather damning for Jeremy Maclin. He was not getting open very often last Sunday, and that was in a favorable matchup. These struggles are indicative of the entirety of Maclin’s work this season. He’s posted some big numbers mostly due to Chip Kelly’s excellent utilization, and scheme. When he gets targets, and makes the catch, he’s talented enough to do something with it. The opportunity was there early in the season for Maclin. When the targets weren’t always so high, his catch efficiency rose. It’s a strange juxtaposition, which fantasy owners cannot always count on to take place.
Jeremy Maclin has been a fine asset for those who’ve put him in lineups this season. Yet, when you remove him from the Chip Kelly offense, and just view him as an individual, Maclin’s game leaves a lot to be desired.
Going Forward
The 2014 fantasy season is coming to a close. Without question, Maclin’s role in this chapter was as a hero for his teams. Not many could have projected such strong statistical production from a receiver coming off a torn ACL, and in the top job for the first time.
Much of Maclin’s future utility is tied into where he’s playing football next season. If he remains in Philadelphia, his fantasy value should not fall off a cliff. However, even if he stays put, there is no guarantee Maclin holds serve for his fantasy owners. Jordan Matthews already looks like a more viable receiver to funnel the passing game through. He’ll compete for the top role on the receiver depth chart, regardless of Maclin’s status with the team. Josh Huff, and any weapons added in the offseason, must be taken into account.
The real trouble for Jeremy Maclin believers will be if he leaves town. On any other team, it’s hard to see him even approaching his current level of production again. Chip Kelly just puts his players in position to succeed unlike any other coach in the league. Its unlikely a coincidence that both DeSean Jackson, and now Jeremy Maclin posted career best numbers under his watch. This is so early to project, but it’s hard to see another team that could do for Maclin what the Eagles have in 2014. If the veteran receiver were to travel to a team such as San Francisco, Kansas City or Oakland, it could torpedo his value next season.
One way or another, 2015 looks like a sell year on Jeremy Maclin. The current NFL season appears to paint a picture of a false breakout. If you have him in a dynasty league, this is the window to make deal involving the Eagles receiver. We’ll need to pay close attention to where he’s going in 2015 redraft league, because his price could get out of hand. Maclin hasn’t developed enough as a creative route runner, or an impressive enough individual player, to be trusted to match his 2014 production next year. He had the perfect situation this season, but if he’s asked to transcend that in a new landing spot in 2015, Maclin will be a disappointment.
