Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll see how Golden Tate performed in Calvin Johnson’s first game back from injury.
Golden Tate was one of the best free agents signings any NFL team made over the offseason. The Detroit Lions desperately needed a number two wide receiver to take some pressure off of Calvin Johnson. Not that the Johnson wasn’t thriving regardless, but the rest of the offense was hurting without a viable compliment. Tate was a fine player for the Seahawks, and Detroit capitalized on his availability.
The Lions didn’t even know how fortunate they were at the time. Calvin Johnson has missed time this season, and Golden Tate stepped up for to fill the void. Tate averaged 13.3 targets, eight targets and 128 yards in the games Johnson did not play. He sustained, and kept their passing game alive. Regardless of his future statistical output, Golden Tate has been one of the best and most valuable players in the NFL this season.
Nevertheless, now that Calvin Johnson is back and ready to assume the reigns, fantasy owners have to take a stand on Golden Tate. He could take a major step backward as the second fiddle, or just keep on chugging. Tate’s Week 10 game seemed to indicate the future holds more of the latter. Let’s dig into Reception Perception to find out for sure.
Alignment and Target Data
Tate is an incredibly versatile player. While he played as an outside receiver—and did so well—as a Seahawk, he can thrive in other places. When Calvin Johnson is in the mix, Tate works as a slot receiver. There he can go up against players similar to his size profile.
Tate also holds an advantage in the slot. He’s a very physical player who can bounce off tackles. His toughness was something that Detroit lacked, but now really enjoys having. Tate has set the tone for this offense, and they’ve rewarded him by peppering him with targets whenever Johnson misses a game.
Many expected that once Johnson came back, Tate’s targets would take a major hit. For one week, at least, that was not the case:
Tate saw a season high 14 targets against the Falcons in Week 9, and only fell one short of that with 13 targets last week. In fact, he did see a fourteenth pass go his way (that he caught) in Week 10—which Reception Perception counts.
In Week 10, Golden Tate ran 49 routes that qualified for Reception Perception. Matthew Stafford threw to him on 28.6% of those, which is one of the highest target shares Reception Perception has charted in this series. Tate did not lose any of his workload last week. Best of all, he still converted on most of his chances; hauling in passes on 24.5% of his passes and catching 85.7% of his targets.
While that may have just been one week, this was still a good sign for Tate’s future outlook. You can expect his targets to fall a little with Johnson back in the fold, but Tate remains a key to this offense’s success. Matthew Stafford looked to Tate over Johnson on the game-winning drive in several spots. Tate has earned major trust from his teammates.
Route and Succes Rate Versus Coverage Analysis
Golden Tate’s involvement in the short passing game stands out. Almost half of his Week 10 routes were slants, screens or flats. Tate’s reliable hands, and knack for breaking tackles with the ball in his hands, make him a great option as a short area receiver. Any pass to Calvin Johnson is a high-percentage throw. But the rest of the prior-to-2014 Lions pass catchers were known for their unreliable tendencies. Tate’s presence has been a welcomed one.
Running these routes explains why Tate has been such a PPR monster. He’s been getting the ball soon after the snap on easy to complete throws. One would think, that with his volume heading for a decrease, this data only supports the notion that his fantasy value would fall. We need to take a look at the second route chart to make any further conclusions:
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Let’s start with the good. Tate posted high SRVC scores on the short routes he so frequently ran. His quickness, and development as a route runner, helps him turn cornerbacks around to get open on short passes. Tate’s SRVC scores were good, and he as also productive on most of those routes, too. He totaled 15.6 PPR fantasy points on slant and screen routes. Tate gave great reward on his high-volume routes.
Now let’s go over the bad. Again, the routes Tate was so productive on are mostly target dependent routes. If the number of passes going his way begin to decrease, it’s hard to imagine him continuing to score so many points. Losing even four targets on slants and screen passes would put a serious dent into Tate’s value. Many of his other routes that the Lions did not ask him to run often, he was ineffective on. Also, Tate did struggle to get lose against man coverage:
The veteran receiver was adept at beating zone coverage, and making hay on screen passes. Yet, you’d really like to see him get open against more man schemes if you believe he’ll sustain his as of late fantasy output.
Finally, we’ll take the optimistic view. One figure that gives hope Tate could overcome a loss of the target pie is his SRVC score on nine routes. He showed off some great skill running vertical routes against the Dolphins. Tate roasted Cortland Finnegan with straight speed, but also displayed good awareness when to make a subtle shift on these routes to flash open. With such great ability as a deep route runner, maybe he can add a few more big plays to overcome a potential lack of volume. Losing a few passes on screen and slant routes would not be so bad if Tate could begin converting on deep routes. It’s a just hope, but some optimism does remain.
Going Forward
Frankly, even with the Reception Perception data, it’s still hard to have a dug in stance regarding Tate’s rest of season outlook. It would have been easier if his volume decreased right away with Calvin Johnson back in the lineup, but it didn’t.
Tate’s route analysis seems to support that any loss of the immense volume he’s been carrying will be tough to overcome. His productivity is mostly coming on high percentage passes, like slants and screens. If some of those passes begin to travel Johnson’s way, Tate’s numbers will suffer. However, Tate did post a great SRVC score on his nine routes, indicating he can make more big plays than he has been. If he begins to get and convert on chances down the field with Johnson freeing up more space, Tate will continue to produce.
Unfortunately, we are likely going to have to wait yet another week to formulate a take on Golden Tate. If you want to act now, it will have to be on your own gut’s feeling. If you think that the volume is bound to dissipate, the data support that his volume will plummet. In that case, you should think about selling Tate high, perhaps packaging him with another player for an elite option. If you are of the belief that Tate will continue to get fed or produce in a new way with Johnson back, just keep holding on. Reception Perception can help guide your decision, but you need to take a stand on your own.
