The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. Use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series.
Though it seems like an eternity, it was only two years ago that Randall Cobb surpassed 90 catches, 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Since the end of that season, Cobb has posted more than 70 receiving yards in just five games. It’s been one of the more precipitous declines of any player that in in their mid-20’s and remains on the same team.
Last year the excuse was real and present: without Jordy Nelson, Cobb was forced into a position he never should have been. Running a passing game through a slot receiver as the No. 1 option rarely leads to efficient or effective offensive play. Defenses could easily clamp down on Cobb and take him away in the middle of the field. Cobb also reportedly suffered a shoulder injury early in the year and said himself he didn’t expect to be right all year.
It was all supposed to get better in 2016. But it hasn’t. Through three games Cobb has a measly 12 catches for 132 yards and nary a touchdown. Jordy Nelson is back; Cobb is supposedly injury free. What’s going on? Where is the production? None of this is going to script.
Let’s dispel one notion right off that bat: 2014 Randall Cobb was a legitimately good player. His Reception Perception results from that season confirm that reality. Cobb ran a far more diverse set of routes than one would expect from a supposed gadget player. He scored above the NFL average in success rate vs. coverage on slant and flat routes, but also showed some downfield ability with strong scores on nine and post patterns. Cobb’s 69.4 percent success rate vs. man coverage was stellar, but his 84.3 percent success rate vs. zone coverage is still one of the best scores to date in series history.
It was in a somewhat specialized role with 82.1 percent of his snaps coming from the slot and 30.2 percent of his route being flats or slants. However, 2014 Randall Cobb was dynamic in breaking a tackle on 70 percent of his in-space attempts, a precise route runner and overall one of the best receivers in the game.
Here in 2016, through a sample of his Week 1 and Week 3 games, Cobb’s Reception Perception scores have fallen off a bit, but not to a catastrophic degree where there is no hope for a rebound. Cobb’s overall success rate vs. man coverage is down from 69.4 in 2014 to 66.7 percent. That’s still above the league average, but no longer a standout score. It’s below fellow slot receivers like Willie Snead (68.7) and Doug Baldwin (69.1) and more in the range of Albert Wilson (66.2). That’s not exactly what we like to see. Cobb’s press coverage score is way down from a surprisingly high 78.7 percent success rate in 2014 to a below NFL average 61.9 percent mark through two 2016 games. The book seems to be out on Cobb right now and pressing him is on the first page of the guideline.
Where Cobb is still fantastic is the art of working through zones. We mentioned his 2014 score was stellar, but his 95.7 success rate from these two sample games is mind-boggling. The highest mark over a full sample in Reception Perception history is Antonio Brown’s 93.6 percent success rate vs. zone coverage.
Overall Cobb’s usage across the route chart has become far more concentrated.
No route on his percentage chart from 2014 checked in at or over 20 percent frequency. His slant and flat routes are no 49 percent of his assigned routes. His post routes are down to just 7.5 percent and the screen, comeback and dig have been essentially erased from his portfolio.
A few of his success rate scores are clearly just a tick off from 2014.
While his flat (91.7) and post route (75) and curl (75) success rate scores are right in line with his previously established standards. On the negative side, scores like his slant success rate (78.6) is now a few percentage points off his 2014 rate. While this is still above the NFL average and a solid score, Cobb’s role in this offense requires him to be a far more effective slant route runner. He needs that score to be in the 80 percent range.
Cobb’s vertical route score fell from over 60 percent down to 50 percent. It certainly makes sense, as it feels like he hasn’t made a big play in a quarter century. A poor score in the vertical game would also seem to correlate to his decline when facing man and press coverage.
After taking in his Reception Perception results from these first few games, we find ourselves at a middle ground with Randall Cobb. The data has not cratered to the point where he’s past his career apex and he’s far outside of his prime. However, he’s clearly not playing at the level of the super star he was in 2014. Perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised if that massive season will always be the outlier in his career stat log.
Yet, with his success rate against press coverage still at a super star level and his success rate vs. man coverage above the NFL average along with no route completely cratered. The slot receiver position is the most dependent on their offense to free them up and present them with opportunities. The Packers offense was dysfunctional the first two weeks of the season and the game in Week 3 was such a positive offense they hardly needed to execute a full game plan for 60 minutes.
Week 5 and beyond will provide the true and final test for Cobb. He has a great matchup against the Giants on Sunday and the offense could just be hitting its stride. It’s not time to sell out on Cobb’s future and the pedigree indicates things could reverse course at any time. However, the decline in data does at least bring concern that we’ve already saw the best Cobb’s career has to offer and we’ve been chasing ghosts for over a calendar year now. The book has yet to be concluded.
