Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll put a spotlight on former practice squad receiver, Charles Johnson.
From the moment Teddy Bridgewater arrived in Minnesota, we were asking the question, “Yes, but who will he be throwing to”. Greg Jennings, while a solid player, is very much a shell of his former self. Cordarrelle Patterson, even his most heavy-handed backers, including yours truly, would admit he was never a sure bet. The second year receiver has barely made a dent in the stat sheet this season, and is now essentially irrelevant in the Vikings’ game plan. No one else on the roster stood out as a breakout candidate at wide receiver.
Little did we know; help was on its way. After signing a player from the Cleveland Browns’ practice squad, Minnesota finally had a starting outside receiver. The Vikings likely couldn’t have predicted the return they’ve received from the acquisition of Charles Johnson.
After recording 283 receiving yards, and scoring two touchdowns, over the last four games it appears Johnson has earned his keep. More than that, he’s given Teddy Bridgewater that “go to” receiver he needed. The rookie quarterback is looking for Johnson, and trusting him to come down with difficult catches.
Fantasy owners have reaped the benefits of exploiting this newfound connection. Sharp owners moved to acquire Johnson for the redraft playoff push. Daily game players that used him last week were overjoyed when he came through in a cakewalk matchup against the Jets’ secondary. Four catches for over 100 yards and a long score helped push a few lineups over the top. Let’s use Reception Perception to dig into that performance, and see what we can learn about a player who looks to be cementing a role with the Vikings.
Alignment and Target Data
Crazy measurables were what made Charles Johnson even a blip on the fantasy football radar. Coming out of Grand Valley State, he blazed a 4.39 40-yard dash at his pro day. This was no small feat considering he stands at 6’2, and weighs 215 pounds. While an unheralded prospect, everything about Johnson’s physical profile screamed NFL potential.
Charles Johnson is delivering on that promise while filling a very specific role for the Minnesota Vikings. While the fantasy success of the position from a historical perspective can be debated, there’s no denying Norv Turner knows what he wants in his wideouts. The longtime offensive wizard loves a tall, lanky deep threat at the x-receiver position. Perhaps we should have taken notice sooner that Johnson is a perfect fit. He has a similar skillset to a player like Vincent Jackson, a deep threat who thrived under Turner’s tutelage. Josh Gordon took flight, as a big receiver who could fly by cornerbacks, while Turner was in Cleveland last season. Perhaps not so coincidently, this was the same time Turner was growing familiar with Charles Johnson.
In Week 14, Johnson played 90% of his snaps starting on the line of scrimmage. The vast majority of plays saw him lined up outside the numbers. It looks like the Vikings trust him to get off press coverage, and to fill the top receiver role in Norv Turner’s offense. For that reason, Johnson became a big part of the game plan:
Johnson was the highest targeted player from the Vikings when they played the Jets. That is nothing new; he’s received at least seven targets in three of his last four games.
The Reception Perception numbers bear out Johnson’s increased involvement with the offense. Teddy Bridgewater looked his way on 25.8% of the routes Johnson ran against the Jets. There might be some chemistry developing here. The only hang up for fantasy owners is the target-to-catch conversion rate. Johnson only caught passes on 12.9% of the routes he ran, which was good for a 50% reception conversion rate.
Uninspiring catch numbers are not always the fault of the receiver. Sometimes, the passing offense has its hang-ups—such as poor structure, or an underperforming offensive line. Other time, the quarterback just isn’t getting the job done. Johnson himself did not make any big mistakes in Week 14 that would have directly caused his rate to decrease. However, this figure still must concern fantasy owners. It indicates that, while we can count on Johnson getting looks, he may not always fill the stat sheet. Something similar happened when Johnson only caught three passes on 10 targets against the Packers in Week 12.
Route Analysis and Success Rate Versus Coverage Data
It seems Norv Turner, and the Vikings coaching staff’s preferred routes for Charles Johnson are the nine (19.4%) and slant (16.1%). His use on vertical routes makes sense, given his tremendous speed and Turner’s affinity for deep shots. We covered slants as effective “just get the ball in his hands” patterns when we studied Josh Gordon two weeks ago. The Vikings appear to want Johnson to function in a similar fashion.
As for the rest of the chart, Johnson shows the ability to run most all patterns. I was personally impressed with his ability as a route runner. Johnson shows the ability to sell vertical routes, only to break inside. He often leaves defenders turned around. There’s a lot of potential for Johnson as a timing based player, which fits Teddy Bridgewater’s style of quarterbacking very well.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Interestingly enough, Johnson posted his lower SRVC scores on the routes he ran most often. He scored in the 60’s on the three patterns he went out for passes on at least 16% of the time. However, we’ve seen throughout Reception Perception that scoring in the 60’s is not shame one vertical routes. Those are low percentage patterns, when it comes to getting open. Johnson can make huge plays on those deep routes. He hauled in his long touchdown catch when running a nine, and produced 12.6 PPR points for his fantasy owners. He also produced PTS on an out and slant, the other two highly assigned routes.
One figure that stands out is Johnson’s SRVC on “other” routes. He looked very good running plays where he needed to break on an improvisational run, or an option route. Johnson consistently managed to elude cornerbacks in these instances. While he recorded 3.2 PTS on “other” routes, he could have had more. He fumbled the ball on that catch right as he was about to score his second touchdown of the day.
All in all, Johnson was solid, but not spectacular, in terms of beating coverage. He was, however, much better at beating zones than man-to-man:
He saw a bit more man, and beat that at a respectable 66.7% rate. The Jets corners do not provide a particularly stiff test, but Johnson did make them look silly at times. He can flawlessly execute double moves, or false steps to sell deceptive routes. Getting a corner to bite on a play, or misjudge his intentions comes easy to Johnson.
When it comes to zone coverage, Johnson shows good awareness when it comes to knowing when to sit down. In these situations, he earns his quarterback’s trust by being where he should be, and is expected to be. Teddy Bridgewater seems like a quarterback who likes to run an offense with those sorts of players. If Johnson is turning into such a receiver, that only helps his stock.
Going Forward
At this point in the fantasy season, there are only a few lucky owners playing meaningful games. The rest failed to make the playoffs, or suffered an early exit last week. Everyone else is just around for daily games, and investigating players for next year’s outlook.
When it comes to the former, Johnson always makes for an intriguing play. His price has been manageable on daily sites, and does not figure to skyrocket anytime soon. With his penchant for deep routes, and a solid amount of targets going his way, Johnson is the type of player who can take a tournament lineup over the top. On the other hand, his catch per route percentage provides some realistic fear that he can sink your chances with a dud.
As for next year, each passing week sees Charles Johnson’s long-term outlook improve. It’s taken a few teams, but he may have a home in Minnesota. The coaching staff, and mostly Norv Turner, looks as if they believe in him, and have a clear role set out for the taking. It helps that Teddy Bridgewater has shown he will, at worst, be a passable starting NFL quarterback. Some weeks he has looked much better than that. Johnson is in a fine situation that should only improve over the next few years.
Charles Johnson is another young wide receiver whose star is rising. His Reception Perception numbers are not mind-blowing, but they indicate a developing player who is exceeding expectations. He’s well worth the intrigue, especially given how he has some polish as a route runner to mix in with his outstanding athleticism. Make sure you are keeping tabs on Charles Johnson for daily fantasy football use, as a dynasty grab and potential steal next year.
