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The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. To see full results of the project’s first full offseason, check out the tables at Backyard Banter. Additionally, use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series. Every week at Footballguys I'll profile one receiver whose recent numbers stand out as interesting. If you have a suggestion for the column, file it on Twitter.
If this is your first time reading a Reception Perception column, thanks for checking in. My hope is that you will not only find the series unique, but also informative. However, if you’re a longtime follower, there’s no need to tell you who was one of the top darlings to emerge from the charting of the 2014 season. Reception Perception tabbed Allen Robinson as its top breakout player for the 2015 season back in late April.
After a rocky start in Week 1 Robinson grew to fulfill the hopes Reception Perception laid out for him. He’s currently the WR4 overall in standard fantasy leagues, leads the NFL in touchdown receptions, and is on pace for a 1,300-yard season. Luckily, that call is working out, because I’m not sure that anyone would still read this series if Robinson had flopped. Reception Perception played a big part in elevating Robinson’s redraft ADP from the 10th round in the months leading up to that April publication, to the fringe fifth to sixth round range come season’s kickoff. Had Robinson proved a bust projection, the torches and pitchforks would have come out, and rightfully so.
We know from studying the NFL that star-caliber players make all tides rise in an offense. With Robinson’s emergence as a No. 1 wide receiver, the Jacksonville offense as a whole gets an uptick in stock. No player exemplifies that more than fellow second-year wide receiver, Allen Hurns.
Hurns is not a total unknown. Last year, despite going undrafted in a historic wide receiver crop coming out of college, and playing on a team that invested second round picks in a pair of rookie wideouts, Hurns bursted onto the scene in Week 1 with 110 yards and two scores on only four catches. He didn’t keep pace on those numbers, but Hurns had some staying power. He finished the year averaging 42.7 yards per game and scored six touchdowns. Coming into this season, he easily swept past now forgotten second-year man to start beside Allen Robinson for the Jaguars.
Hurns once again got off to a fast start this season, averaging 66 yards per game in the first three weeks. As teams caught up to Robinson as the clear top threat, Hurns really went off in Weeks 4 and 5. He went for 116 yards and a score in both contests. Hurns found the end zone in every game since Week 3. By all accounts, he’s been a steady No. 2 for the Jaguars, and a fine waiver add for fantasy owners.
Even still, I field a ton of questions on Hurns in regards to whether his production is sustainable. While he’s kept the touchdowns up, he only caught 26.7 percent of his targets over the last two games. Some of Blake Bortles’ inefficiency, and the emergence of T.J. Yeldon as a foundation back, are beginning to nibble at Hurns’ production.
Despite a strong start for the second straight year, the public needs convincing. Fantasy owners and league observers alike want to know whether this young player is here to stay, or was he just a flash in the pan. We’ll look at his best game of the season (an 11 catch game against the Colts) and his most inefficient (his contest against the Bills with a 25 percent catch rate) using the same Reception Perception methodology that brought us the revelation of his teammates impending breakout.
Alignment Data
With Robinson serving as the offense’s X-receiver, the Jaguars needed a complimentary threat. Allen Hurns is the guy tabbed with that assignment.
Showing his versatility, Hurns takes his snaps from all over the formation this season. One thing that hampered Hurns’ consistency, as a rookie was, with all the injuries to their pass catching corps, Jacksonville asked Hurns to just lineup outside and win. This season with Robinson entrenched; they move him all around the formation. He plays at flanker (behind the line of scrimmage 66.4 percent of his snaps) and frequently motions from left to right, or splits out wide. While Rashad Greene Sr and Brian Walters produced for this team in spurts as slot receivers, Hurns still sees time on the interior. He took 29.8 percent of his snaps from the slot in this two game sample.
Having a No. 1 receiver is a great asset to an NFL passing game. We see plenty of offenses post great numbers with just one target hog—Carolina last year and Houston this season. However, having a versatile presence to take some pressure off and move around the formation helps take your offense to the next level.
Target Data
With the Jaguars, whether by necessity or design, transitioning to a high volume pass offense, Hurns is keeping a big slice of the pie even with Robinson averaging nearly 10 targets per game. From Week 4 on, Hurns averaged nine targets per game. His target per route rate of 28.6 percent is indicative of a high-volume receiver. That range is typically reserved for No. 1 wideouts, or No. 2 receivers in the Emmanuel Sanders realm.
One aspect of Hurns’ game that does need improving, and plagued him at times last year, is overall inefficiency. For his target rate, Hurns should have a better reception per route figure than the 16.7 percent recorded over this sample. In a similar vein, he dropped two passes in the game against the Bills, leading to a 8.3 drop rate. There are still some inconsistencies that need ironing out in this player.
While emerging as a reliable player for the Jaguars, these inefficiencies keep Hurns pigeonholed as a No. 2 threat at best. He’s also not a player that performs well in contact situations. Hurns did not come down with either contested catch attempt in these two games, and was dropped on first contact on 85.7 percent of his “in space” attempts. However, while these issues might limit him to a second fiddle role to Robinson, there’s nothing wrong with that. Playing that part is what Jacksonville needs from him, and his negatives are more than outweighed by his positive contributions as a player.
Success Rate Versus Coverage and Route Analysis
My top Jaguars confidante, Eric Stoner, calls Allen Hurns their “Justin Blackmon facsimile.” Unlike current Jaguars top receiver Allen Robinson, Blackmon tore through defenses on short crossers and out routes in his playing days with the team. It’s easy to see why Stoner draws that comparison:
There’s an air of exclusivity to Hurns’ route chart. His assignments are skewed to feature a vast majority of in-breaking crossers, and quick outs to the flat.
Hurns does have deceptive, build-up speed and he can separate deep into his routes on slants (19 percent) and posts (11.9 percent). While Robinson gets the targets on the deep routes, Hurns serves as a tertiary dump off option in the offense on his flat routes (14.3 percent). Lastly, the only other route Hurns runs with any sort of regularity is the curl (19 percent), where he demonstrates a good understanding of when to turn back to his quarterback.
Often times when a receiver runs a smaller portion of the route tree, we’re quick to classify them as limited. The better classification is to just understand that this is what they do well, and the team isn’t stretching them outside that role. Even if the assignment isn’t too advanced, Hurns passes the test for his offense:
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Hurns posts a 66.7 percent SRVC on all four of those major routes run in the two-game sample. The in-breaking routes—the slant, curl and post—all feature above 75 percent scores. Hurns shows a great ability to shift through the middle of the field, feeling out traffic and areas to get open. His flat route score is slightly depressed, as sometimes he breaks out too quickly, or too late, in the route and tips off the defender. However, a 66.7 percent score is nothing to sneeze at.
While there is some speed to his game, Hurns isn’t the deep threat many labeled him as after big plays game in bunches as a rookie. His 42.1 percent SRVC on nine routes comes in below the NFL average, and good cornerbacks can stick with him.
Note that almost all of his PTS from the sample came on the four routes he so frequently runs. The only other route with a notable PTS figure is the out, where he ran a deeper pattern, and broke toward the sideline in the end zone for a touchdown. Other than that catch, Hurns repeatedly got targets on the slant, curl, post and flat routes.
Again, this doesn’t make him a bad player, and calling him limited feels slightly pejorative. Rather, Hurns is the embodiment of a complimentary player, thriving alongside a true no. 1 threat. In reality, he’s one of the most improved players in the league from what he put on tape as a rookie:
(Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point)
While not a maven against press or man coverage, again the lack of speed or pristine technique, Hurns regularly frees himself from soft coverage. His 77.4 percent SRVC against signifies his development as a professional. Hurns guessed a lot on the field as a rookie, creating some of the randomness to his big plays. This year, he’s diagnosing zone coverage well, finding the soft spots, and emerged as the reliable short area receiver for his team.
Hurns’ game against the Colts was a best-case scenario of his role with the team. Allen Robinson got over for a few big plays, but saw tough coverage from Vontae Davis for most of the afternoon. With favorable matchups on Hurns’ side, he took advantage for 11 catches. He helped move the chains, and work the offense steadily down the field on crossing routes. That’s the type of player he is, and it’s a steady influence the Jaguars offense needs. As much as Robinson’s breakout has the offense’s ceiling on the rise, Hurns’ development brought up the floor when things don’t come easily.
Going Forward
Allen Hurns is for real. So if that was your question, his Recepiton Perception sample brings a clear answer to the table. If sustainability was the root of your query, that’s a more complicated answer. Because Jacksonville is a high-variance passing offense, and Blake Bortles isn’t a high-end NFL passer, multiple options won’t put up consistent numbers every week. Robinson gets the high-value targets, and the largest slice of the pie, so Hurns can’t stuff the stat sheet every week. Despite the nature of his game being best described as a safety valve, his production will be volatile.
However, he’s still a good bet for flex consideration in fantasy. Getting forced into pass-heavy game scripts isn’t stopping anytime soon in Jacksonville. Hurns should get a healthy does of targets every few games, and he’s skilled enough to deliver on them. When opponents sellout to slow down Allen Robinson, we already know Hurns has the trust of his quarterback, and the team counts on him to pick up the slack.
From year one to year two, I’m not sure any sophomore wide receiver looks more improved and farther along in his development than what they showed on their rookie film than Allen Hurns. He’s elevated his game, albeit in a very specific role with limited assignments, and is a major player in his team’s offense. Considering he came from the pool of the undrafted free agents, the Jaguars got quite a steal in Hurns.
Reception Perception knew Jacksonville had a long-term no.1 on their hands with Allen Robinson. Now we see they have a perfect compliment with Allen Hurns and his development against soft coverage on out and crossing routes. Even more than the no. 1 carrying the offense, that compliment can help a young quarterback and the top threat by giving the defense something else to think about. Hurns has absolutely done that in his brief career.