Talent is a very vague term that is thrown around by football fans and analysts alike. There are no carved in stone commandments that dictate what talent is, or is not. If you boil the term “more talented” down to loosely mean “the better player” than it has some utility for fantasy drafting.
When you are on the clock during a draft you will face points where you need to make a quick decision. Often times the choice will not be easy. In many cases fantasy owners have to pick between two players they have ranked closely. In those fleeting seconds as the clock winds down you must assess how to navigate through the noise and make a selection. The best way to do so is to break ties in favor of the more talented football player.
Situation, scheme and opportunity are of the upmost importance when compiling a fantasy team. Yet, at the end of the day, this game is all about collecting players who will score you the most points. The ones most likely to do so are the more skilled ones. Sometimes in a tie situation, the correct move is to trust that the better player will rise up over the more conventional choice.
Running back tends to be the position most affected by factors other than talent. While there is good reason for that, sometimes that thinking leads to errors and oversights. This year in particular there are many difficult choices to make when looking to add a running back to your fantasy squad. Let’s examine three decision making points between two players near each other in current ADP data and assumed value. These debates call for a tie broken in favor of talent.
Decision One: Drafting at the first/second round turn
Players: Montee Ball vs. Giovani Bernard
Picking late in the first round, and then again early in the second doesn’t seem to come with much clarity. At the moment, many of the possible picks there seem to come with more questions than answers. This is especially true if you are a traditionalist, and look to invest in running backs early.
Montee Ball is a popular choice for owners around the first turn of the draft. The story has been told over and over again this offseason. Knowshon Moreno was an average player, but became a strong fantasy starter working with Peyton Manning. Moreno emerged from the ashes to record 13 touchdowns and 60 receptions in 2013. Not a soul will argue anyone but Manning was the primary reason for Moreno’s outlier season. The hope is that a younger Montee Ball can at the very least duplicate that output this season. Whether you believe he does or not comes down to how you view Ball as a player.
Despite eye-popping college numbers—1,850 yards and 22 touchdowns on 356 carries—Ball doesn’t really have a standout trait. He’s not a massive player at 5’10” and 215 pounds, nor does he play with much power. The numbers he posted at the scouting combine, including a 4.66 40-yard dash do not indicate any special movement skills. Even as he ran through collegiate defenses, not much about him jumped off the screen. Montee Ball did little during his rookie season to suggest he’d become more dynamic. In fact he had a few struggles, especially in the reliability department (a big faux pas when playing with Manning).
Of course acquiring the services of a back taking handoffs from an all-time great quarterback is tempting. Yet, if you’re insistent on taking a running back at the end of the first round turn, look for a more talented player. Giovani Bernard should cross your mind before you draft Ball by default.
Bernard didn’t put up quite the same numbers Ball did as a college running back, but he was no slouch either. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry and totaled 17 touchdowns from scrimmage in his final season. Unlike Ball, you could watch one second of a Gio cutup and see he was special. His combination of balance, vision and effortless movement in space made him a dynamic player at UNC. Bernard seems to have carried all of that over to the NFL level. He made quite a few highlight-reel plays as a rookie with the Bengals.
Bernard also has a nice enough situation to make passing up Ball’s great one bearable. New Cincinnati offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson, wants to be a run first, second and third team. While he’ll surely like using the big rookie Jeremy Hill from LSU, Gio is too special a player for Jackson to ignore. A massive Bengals offensive line will blast open lanes for the second year runner. With the way the team wants to reel in their quarterback Bernard will sustain, or improve on, his 56 catches from a year ago.
With his breathtaking running style, Bernard is capable of sustaining RB1 numbers even on limited carries. Given that he’s the second most talented player on his offense, that scenario might never come to fruition. Gio Bernard is the superior talent to Montee Ball, and should be your pick at the turn over the Denver back.
Decision Two: Searching for an RB2 in the fourth round
Players: Ryan Mathews vs. Bishop Sankey
There’s an exciting group of new faces in the second and third rounds of fantasy drafts this year. Plenty of eager owners will look to uncover their core running backs from that group. However, there is a strong crop of solid players that start to come off the board in the fourth round. Guys like Ryan Mathews, Bishop Sankey and their ADP neighbors give support to the thought that it’s better to wait.
The rookie running back craze has died down in recent years. Yet, there’s usually at least one first year back that people still go crazy for. This year that player is Bishop Sankey. He was the first running back taken in May’s NFL draft, and he’ll carry the same title in fantasy iterations.
The draw has more to do with the situation than Sankey himself. Common wisdom said the Tennessee Titans would take a running back at their second round pick. It prevailed. Their depth chart was essentially barren at the position, and they have the makings of a good offensive line. The blocking and the clear-cut role made Tennessee the optimal landing spot for a rookie back. The Titans could have taken Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Hill, and they’d be the recipients of the hype Sankey owns today. That alone should give you hesitation.
While Bishop Sankey was a solid running back prospect, he was far from a dynamic one. Everything in Sankey’s game said “good, but not great”. He’d get the yards that were available to him in college, but struggled to create on his own. Sankey is a good pass protector, and a capable receiver, but not dynamic enough to be a dangerous aerial threat.
Sankey’s talent and potential role in the NFL compares to what Knowshon Moreno was in Denver last season. They are safe, reliable players who can get the job done in a perfect situation. Sankey might have that prime opportunity and that’s why his ADP sits in the fourth round. Nevertheless, just like Moreno, he’ll likely leave the Titans and his fantasy owners wanting more.
If you’re looking for a stronger RB2 candidate in the fourth round, you are better off taking Ryan Mathews. The Chargers’ running back has been the butt of many jokes throughout his short career, but broke out in 2013. Mathews always had the talent that enticed San Diego to trade up to the twelfth overall pick in 2010. Mathews looks like the perfect NFL lead back with great balance, agility and ideal size. Once he finally stayed healthy and ran with serious aggression last year he was able to showcase the skills.
You may forget that Mathews finished as a top-10 fantasy back in standard leagues. When the Chargers wanted to make a push to the playoffs, it was Ryan Mathews who became the face of the offense. Despite the addition of Donald Brown and the investment in Danny Woodhead, Mathews will run the show again in 2014. He is the only one of the three who has a featured back’s build and skillset.
The new additions might assist Ryan Mathews in taking another leap in production. The Chargers can manage him better by using Brown and Woodhead to keep their starter fresh. San Diego did run Mathews into the ground a bit towards the end, but should not have to do so again. While his carries could fall a bit from last year’s 285, his yards per carry could rise from 4.4. This player isn’t a plodder in any sense, and could be even more explosive with his new aggressive style this season.
While it’s tempting to take the new and shiny asset in Bishop Sankey, it’s unwise to do so at an inflated cost. Mathews won’t provide the same sexy intrigue, but he’ll bring better dividends come season’s end. He is the better talent head-to-head, and might just be entering his best years.
Situation Three: Sifting through the late rounds for profit
Players: Khiry Robinson vs. Fred Jackson
When you reach the later rounds of your fantasy drafts the game changes a bit. Things are naturally less clear as surefire starters are all but dried up. Of course, this does not mean there are no longer any worthwhile investments to make. The key here is to wisely pick your spots and to sift through the potential dead weight. You need to be fortuitous in this endeavor, and aim for the highest of heights.
The Bills’ Fred Jackson has long been an underrated, reliable commodity. In most years, his ADP is too low as he flies well under the radar. Jackson has saved more than a few fantasy teams with a clutch, but unexpected, RB2 stat line during his career. This year it might finally be time to pass at his current asking price. Sure, he will certainly still produce in what might be an underrated Buffalo offense. Even so, there are just too many players with greater upside near his draft position to justify taking a declining asset.
Khiry Robinson looks to be one of the strongest breakout candidates of this season. The Saints have a great history with developing undrafted running backs. If Robinson’s conclusion to the 2013 season is any indication, it looks like he is next in line. The West Texas A&M star appeared to be a capable three down running back in the playoffs. Bill Parcells even invoked the name of Curtis Martin as a comparison when urging Sean Payton to play Robinson more. Perhaps the Saints’ coach permits this exciting talent to be the leader of what is likely a three-headed backfield again.
In the later rounds you want to target young running backs that have at least an outside chance of becoming stars. The path is there for Khiry Robinson, and it is a pretty clear one too. At this point in their respective careers, Robinson is the fresher and more talented player than Fred Jackson. His upside is what the late rounds were made for.