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Sunday Morning Coming Down: Overconfidence Is Among the Worst Fantasy Football Mistakes

Matt Harmon unpacks his thoughts on why we should be wary of being too overconfident in our own predictions.

The news of Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game suspense from the NFL and some of the fantasy-related responses to it, both my own and those who interacted with me on Twitter, got me thinking on the subject of overconfidence. Putting your name to a belief regarding a particular player once you select them for you fantasy team requires some level of conviction. To make any move or follow some sort of guiding strategy implies that you have a strong belief about its worth.

The problem, however, lies in the reality that all of us will be wrong in our predictions so often throughout the course of the NFL season. It should not be revelatory for an analyst to admit such a truth. No matter how sharp you believe yourself to be or how many hours you put into studying this game, there is simply no escaping your own massive fallibility in predicting football’s future.

Knowing that should inform our approach when drafting in the coming weeks. We ought to go into the endeavor with eyes wide open that many of our moves will, in fact, fail. Even moreso, we should prepare ourselves in whatever way possible to even benefit from the natural chaos that an NFL season brings.


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