Welcome to the cusp of the regular season. I'm The Gut Check, your faithful host who loves seeking viable paths for beating the Dominator-dependent drafters in your leagues. It often means taking the unconventional route to success.
Most of you have already drafted, and many of you have taken a few chances on players that I've recommended this spring and summer as positive outliers whose success I've projected to counter the common tales about them.
Now, it's time to get wild.
Some of my bold predictions are maximized upside projections of players I've recommended higher than the consensus. Others are extreme wet blankets on players others like. And a few are probably from Saturn...
Somewhere in Austin, Texas, the little hippie angel is dancing. Space is the place, Bloom, space is the place.
1. Jay Cutler Authors a Top-10 QB SEason in Miami With a less productive Jarvis Landry
The concerns about Jarvis Landry lacking rapport with Jay Cutler aren't as bad as the possibility that Landry could wind up arrested and suspended for an alleged incident of domestic violence where no arrests were made at the scene nearly five months ago. If Landry and his soon-to-be ex-wife are correct, it also counters what was written in the police report.
If Landry isn't suspended, I'm not worried about the connection with Cutler. In fact, I'm pleased that Cutler and DeVante Parker are getting on the same page, first. The downfield passing game has not been a strength of Ryan Tannehill's and Cutler is better at creating production against pressure. This jibes well with Parcommitmentommittment to becoming a student of the game. The threat that defenses face against a version of Parker who finally knows what he's doing will open easier opportunities for Cutler and Landry to connect. Plus, the myriad of reads and adjustments that need to take place between a quarterback and his slot receiver take time. It's going to be a slower process.
As you can see, embedded within this bold prediction is a sensible prediction that Landry's production will not be as strong as it has been with Tannehill—not a major drop-off, but the borderline WR1 upside in PPR won't be there.
The reason Cutler has a viable shot at top-10 fantasy production as a QB is his creativity and the Dolphins defense. I expect enough game scripts that will force the Dolphins offense into throwing mode by the middle of the third quarter and it means Smokin' Jay Cutler will be hanging onto the back of that garbage rig, cig dangling at the corner of his lip, recycling fantasy points at a rapid rate.
The Dolphins run defense finished second to last in the league last year and opposing offense scored touchdowns at a rate of 57.4 percent from the red zone, which was among the worst 10 teams in the league. I'd be surprised if the unit makes a significant turnaround this year and it means the game scripts could force the Dolphins into catch-up mode sooner than we'd like.
While I love Jay Ajayi's talent, I don't have a single share of him on a fantasy squad this year. Some of that is coincidence, but much of it is the defense. I see another boom-bust season despite the improved offensive line because I'm not a believer in the defense doing its part.
2. Matthew Stafford will be a top-5 Fantasy QB
So let me get this straight: Stafford was the No. 7 fantasy QB last year despite losing Ameer Abdullah and playing with an injured and ineffective Marvin Jones for three-quarters of the year, but his ADP is QB15, his offensive talents are healthy and his defense is still bad?
Instead, fantasy owners are hopping on the bandwagon of Derek Carr, who got an upgrade at running back; Cam Newton, who still doesn't have a receiver who can defeat press coverage or a line that is guaranteed to protect him; Jameis Winston, who will get a rejuvenated Doug Martin back in a few weeks and has a coach who has shown that he'll run the ball into the ground if Winston makes too many erratic decisions, which he's prone to do multiple times a year; Marcus Mariota, and his exotic smashmouth offense; and Ben Roethilsberger, who is getting older and brittler with each passing year.
Sure, makes total sense. Now, hold my beer...
Some of these projections will work out and even make more sense than how I characterized them. However, I've thought Stafford's value has been way too low all summer. For the first seven weeks of 2016, Stafford was the No. 4 fantasy quarterback. Once it became clear that Marvin Jones could be effectively bracketed, Stafford was the No. 17 passer from Weeks 8-17. As long as Jones and Tate stay healthy, I think Stafford will be a top-10 option. If Abdullah and Riddick stay healthy (and Eric Ebron and Kenny Golladay provide even a minor spark), Stafford will be a top-five option.
3. Tarik Cohen Will be a top-25 PPR fantasy Running back
The Bears were the 30th-ranked defense in time of possession last year, and 26th in points allowed. They were also dead-last in turnovers. Cameron Meredith is gone for the year, Kevin White is a talent still acclimating to the pros and this offense is playing with its fourth quarterback in a year. If Mitchell Trubisky finds his way into the lineup, make that five.
The Bears will be playing from behind with their old tight end Zack Miller the most proven option, and he gets hurt a lot. I love Jordan Howard's skill, but he's an old-fashioned, game-script, wear-you-down runner. He can catch passes and he's worked on that aspect of his game, but the rookie Cohen has earned the Human Joystick label at North Carolina A&T. And when an NFL team limits a rookie during its dress rehearsal game, it can be a sign that rookie will be big part of the offense.
Cohen was one of my top picks as a space player in the 2017 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. If there was a player with dimensions and skills within the same city as Darren Sproles, it was a combination of Cohen and Donnel Pumphrey. The Eagles' runner has the decision-making smarts and quickness, but Cohen has the balance, creativity, and eye-popping hand-eye coordination as a receiver.
Reminder: There will never be another Darren Sproles.
If Cohen doesn't freelance too much and get sent to the bench early on, he'll be one of the popular waiver wire additions of the first five weeks of the season.
Further confirmation of Cohen's rise on the depth chart and potential role as a necessary space player arrived this weekend, when the team cut Jeremy Langford loose. Benny Cunningham could split opportunities with Cohen if Howard gets hurt because he's a versatile veteran. However, Cohen might be the most explosive offensive option on the team right now.
The Bears defense should author enough favorable game scripts that Cohen earns Duke Johnson-like touches and with better results. Johnson was the No. 31 RB in PPR leagues last year. Cohen's talent, the Bears offensive turnstile, and the Chicago defense make it possible that Cohen beats that in surprising fashion.
4. Carlos Hyde will be a top-five running back
I'm a believer in Kyle Shanahan's offense and the fact that the 49ers brought in key players with experience in it (Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon) gives me confidence that the team can add some wrinkles that will make life difficult enough for opposing defenses that Hyde will have an easier time this year.
However, we've seen Hyde perform well without the benefit of a great passing game or scheme. The added benefit the Shanahan brings this year is that Hyde will earn a much higher rate of receptions. There is no Tevin Coleman to his Devonta Freeman this year. Matt Breida is a pleasant surprise, but he's a great athlete still rounding into form as fully dimensional running back. Tim Hightower? Gone. Joe Williams? IR.
It's Hyde's show. Freeman and Coleman combined for 85 receptions for 887 yards and 5 touchdowns in the passing game last year. If Hyde earns half of that production and fullback Kyle Juszczyk the other half, Hyde will be among the most productive receiving backs in the league. Hyde earned 27 catches for 163 yards and 3 scores last year. Let's say he only increases his rushing production by 200 yards this year (presuming he plays a full 16 games rather than 13) but doubles his receiving yards. That increase of 36 fantasy points (non-ppr) or 66 points (adding 20 points for 20 additional catches) would have put Hyde in the top-7 off PPR runners last year—and that doesn't account for any TD increases.
San Francisco lacks Atlanta's talent from the past two years, but it's not as far behind Atlanta's 2015 starting point as many may think. I've watched Atlanta's offensive demise and resurrection during the past five years; I'm not exaggerating. Look at Ryan's decline after losing Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and any semblance of an offensive line. Then check out the climb of Ryan's production in Shanahan's system and a slightly better line before the Falcons acquired Alex Mack last year. The 49ers line might be in better shape than the pre-Mack unit.
Hyde got ready to prove to his new management that he was capable of carrying the load. I think he proves it in a big way.
5. Kyle Juszczyk will be a surprisingly valid Flex-play
The former Ravens fullback is an excellent pass receiver with good burst and balance as a runner. The fact that there were 85 receptions for 887 yards and 5 touchdowns for two backs in Kyle Shanahan's offense last year in Atlanta is notable for Juszcyk, because there isn't a second RB of note beyond Carlos Hyde; George Kittle is a good pass catcher, but a rookie; and Pierre Garcon is by far, the most reliable wide receiver on the roster.
This reminds me a lot of Atlanta, who got little from Mohamed Sanu and its tight ends last year. The 49ers were wise to acquire Juszczyk because he fit the scheme's skill set but wouldn't be in great demand due to his position. Most teams aren't paying much for fullbacks, who are considered part-time options in most offenses nowadays.
Juszcyk earned 41 catches for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2015—RB65 production. I think that's his baseline in San Francisco this year. This is probably my wildest prediction, but if Hyde gets hurt or the Kittle struggles, Juszczyk could absorb a combination of RB/TE targets that get him into the range of 60-70 catches, 550-600 yards, and 5-7 scores. That could put him into RB4 territory.
6. Calvin Johnson comes out of retirement
According to Pro Football Talk, "the attempts by teams to convince Johnson to make a comeback are 'fairly fierce.'" The article also notes that Johnson worked with the Raiders during OTAs and spent time with the Dolphins during the second week of August as the former Lion starts his own business as a private receivers consultant.
I don't completely buy this happening, but we've seen Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, and several other top receivers hang on for a long time because of the desire to play remained strong. If you ever saw the ESPN 30 for 30 on Marcus Dupree, the fact that he started sweating and shaking while watching a USFL game from the sidelines as a guest is a strong indication of how competitive top athletes are.
If a contending team continues calling Johnson during the season, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that his competitive nature sways him to do it.
7. Cooper Kupp is the most productive rookie receiver in ppr formats
This has been my bold prediction since July and I'm sticking with it. Kupp has the knowledge of the receiver's coach, the quickness and acceleration of a top athlete at the position, and excellent hands. He'll play the Jamison Crowder-Jarvis Landry Role in the Rams offense, and the presence of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods will open the middle for Kupp who has developed a strong rapport this summer with Jared Goff.
8. Evan Engram will be a low-end TE1
Larry Donnell, Will Tye, and Jerell Adams combined for 113 targets, 83 catches, 675 yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2016. With Brandon Marshall joining the team, some would be surprised if Engram sees this combined volume.
However, the Giants' target stats who there is enough room for Engram to thrive even with Marshall in the fold.
| Player | TM | Targ | T/TmG | T/G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | Rec% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | 180 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 105 | 1395 | 13.3 | 10 | 58.3 |
| Sterling Shepard | NYG | 114 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 69 | 746 | 10.8 | 8 | 60.5 |
| Will Tye | NYG | 77 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 52 | 461 | 8.9 | 1 | 67.5 |
| Victor Cruz | NYG | 76 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 42 | 616 | 14.7 | 1 | 55.3 |
| Larry Donnell | NYG | 22 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 15 | 92 | 6.1 | 1 | 68.2 |
| Jerell Adams | NYG | 21 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 16 | 122 | 7.6 | 1 | 76.2 |
| Roger Lewis | NYG | 19 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 7 | 97 | 13.9 | 2 | 36.8 |
| Tavarres King | NYG | 10 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 123 | 24.6 | 1 | 50.0 |
| Dwayne Harris | NYG | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 | 100.0 |
| Ben Edwards | NYG | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
Cruz's targets, catches, and yardage is better than it appeared on the field. Supplement those totals with what Tarvarres King and Roger Lewis provided, and Marshall's projected production would be 64 catches, 746 yards, and 4 touchdowns. It's a modest figure for Marshall, if you ask me, but not an unreasonable floor. It would mean that if Eli Manning performs like he did last year (and it wasn't a good year), there's room for Engram to deliver that 113-target, 83-catch, 675-yard, and 3-score upside of those combined totals from the 2016 Giants' TE depth chart.
That would have been close to No. 10 among fantasy tight ends last year. Considering that the Giants cut bait with Will Tye, who was the co-starter with Engram during the preseason, it's a good sign that Engram has earned the role and Rhett Ellison can handle the situational duties of blocking in two-tight end sets.
I'm obviously looking at upside at the expense of Marshall and Manning hitting floor-level expectations. If Manning improves, there's room for Marshall and Engram to matter.
