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The Gut Check No. 418: The Gut Check Draft Plan

Matt Waldman unveils his draft plan for fantasy players seeking a looser ADP boundary, higher risk, and higher reward. 

Why Loosen ADP Boundaries?

David Dodds has a Perfect Draft and Sigmund Bloom has a Master Plan. Both are quality reads. I especially like Bloom's concept of "triggers" to gauge "if/then" situations for selecting a refined pool of players. 

As someone who competes with sharks year after year, I've found that there are drafts where it pays to be bold. Fantasy players with plans rooted too deeply in projections and ADP can get too tied to their data.

Frequently, they are also counting too much on a predictable process to unfold. When you can shake up that process, it can allow you to capitalize on overly cautious owners who have "if/then" themselves into a corner with a rigid plan. 

I have often seen these types of owners either guffaw over early picks of mine and gradually get frustrated that I'm sniping their picks. Early on, they critique me for picking the players way too early. By the midpoint of the draft, they are frustrated that I've taken 3-4 of "their guys." By the end of the draft, they're unhappy with their squads. Some of them complain that there are owners who don't understand good value, and the draft process was "bush league" because other owners overreacted to me pushing the envelope and began doing the same thing to the point that the process lost its relative predictability.  

Those are fun draft nights.


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