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The Gut Check No. 416: Crank Tiers

Matt Waldman creates draft tiers using adjusted Consistency Scores with 12 rounds of players. 

Last week, I posted Consistency-Rank (Crank) Scores from 2016 for the 2017 draft pool. This week, I am posting draft tiers for 12 rounds worth of players for 2017 with Adjusted Crank Scores. 

Crank Scores measure the consistent quality production of a player over a given period of time. I have two types of Crank Scores; Crank I heavily factors fantasy points per game but doesn't punish players for missing games. Crank II doesn't factor fantasy points per game as much and incorporates missing games as a punishing factor. You can learn more about Crank in last week's post. If not, it's okay if you're only here for the answers. 

Adjusted Crank Scores are my method of using the previous year's Crank outcomes and projecting a change based on what I expect to happen in 2017. I created an adjustment scale that factors personnel changes, role changes, previous and current injuries and/or games missed due to suspension. These factors are assigned values of increase or decrease that lead to one number I call "Change." Every player begins with a "Change" of 1 because that change will be multiplied to their Crank Scores. If there is no change, the number 1 keeps it the same. If there are changes, the following factors the reason:

  • Time missed last year with injury/suspension: The percentage of the season missed and added to the original number.  
  • Time missed this year with injury/suspension: A projected percentage of the season missed and subtracted from the original number.
  • A major decline in a player's talent/role or decline in surrounding talent that directly impacts his role: A 75 percent decrease. Think a change in QB/WR/TE for the passing game that earned a major downgrade in talent or multiple losses along the offensive line for the QB or RB. Or the player has been released to a much worse team and made a backup or contributor rather than a starter.
  • A minor decline in a player's talent/role or decline in surrounding talent that indirectly impacts his role: A 25 percent decrease. Think a downgraded offensive line and its impact on a WR or the change in QB for an RB. Or, a player has been downgraded to a committee player or will no longer have the offensive scheme focused on him as much due to an upgrade in surrounding talent and/or change to the system. 
  • Little to no change: Or, in some cases, the positive/negative changes cancel each other out. No adjustment is given and the "Change" remains "1".  
  • A minor increase in a player's talent/role or increase in surrounding talent that indirectly impacts the player: A 25 percent increase. See examples from the decrease section.
  • A major increase in a player's talent/role or increase in surrounding talent that indirectly impacts the player: A 75 percent increase.  See examples from the decrease section. 
As with any set of projections, nothing is perfect with this system. The flaws will be with my perception of how the data will change and it means I could be dead-wrong with my rationale. I will provide that rational for you in my commentary of each player. 
There will also be positions in these tiers where I did not agree with the outcome of the projections but could not figure out a way to make an accurate projection to reflect my thoughts. It means some players will be significantly higher/lower than my Footballguys rankings.
These are the players you'll especially want to note because they are candidates to become major surprises or specific "Waldman favorites" who could be are poised to flop. You may want to avoid these players if you haven't fully bought my previous rationale about the player and the risk quotient is high due to his ADP. 
Because this is about projecting past quality production to the future, there will be no rookies in these tiers. You can add them yourself if you decide to convert this to a cheat sheet. Most of you will find it more beneficial to note specific players you've been researching and use this information as another layer of data.

Adjusted Crank Tiers

The tiers are sorted by the Crank II version of the score, which factors injury more and fantasy points per week less. I also show Crank I scores in case you want to sort them this way, but I think they are overly optimistic on their own. I use them as a tiebreaker when Crank II scores are equal. ADPs are also listed so you can see the value relative of Crank to the market value.

This is not meant as a tiered cheat sheet because you'll find some markedly different tier values relative to the ADPs of the players. Some of the adjustments I made are too limited for my expectations (both high and low) for these players. Instead of trying to consistently rig a way to reflect something reasonable in these cases, I find it's potential instructive to leave it as-is. 

It's possible some of these extreme differences could lead to massive success or failure if you act on the data below. It means these exceptional differences do a good job of highlighting a risk-reward. These scores are generated for 12-team PPR leagues with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 Flex play. 

Green highlights are players with significant value if my adjustments are correct. Yellow represents caution. Pink means steer clear. 

Tier I are the early first-round caliber consistent scores.


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