Running backs have been buried alive by fantasy analysts who don't know the difference between sleep and death. Look at the collective production of runners after seven weeks and it's clear that their demise has been greatly exaggerated:
- As of today, there are nine backs with at least 90 fantasy points in standard leagues.
- 2016's total above is highest total since 2011 when there were 10.
- Both seasons (2011 and 2016) have at least 13 backs with 85 fantasy points at this point of the year.
- In 2011, only six receivers outscored the No.13 back.
- In 2015, when running back production hit a trough, 17 receivers outscored the No.13 back in standard leagues.
This summer, the industry was holding a wake for running backs because last year's production hit a trough. Forget injuries, inexperience at the position, or aging runners, few people considered factors that didn't fit the agenda of perpetuating "the league is pass-heavy, so the running back position is dying" narrative.
Another factor that gave analysts reason to perpetuate this narrative has been the steady devaluation of running backs in the draft. Although we're still seeing backs drafted in the first two rounds, the volume of running backs selected this high has decreased over the years.
The production thus far tells a different story. So does the greater use of two and three-tight end sets by teams like New England, Miami, San Diego, Atlanta, Tennessee, Oakland, Indianapolis, and Kansas City.
At least, that's how it appears to me. I'm not doing a data study on the matter; I'm sharing what I've noticed and a mid-season data point that bears further examination right now or at season's end for the stat-laden guys.
What I will say with greater confidence is that Week 8 looks like an old school weekend for fantasy football that would make Marshawn Lynch a happy football fan. Not all of the backs profiled in this week's Gut Check will compile production reminiscent of the seasons prior to 2006 but based on what I've seen thus far, they're good candidates.
Spencer Ware vs. Indianapolis
If there's a back with an O.G. running style in the league to help sooth the loss of Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson, Ware is high on the list. While I've always loved his balance, burst, and agility, what makes him so effective is his vision, patience, and versatility.
This run to the left doesn't seem that impressive, but good pro backs understand how to maintain a good pace into tight creases and emerge with maximum yardage gained.
Ware is 10th in the league among runners in yards after the catch and 2nd to Tevin Coleman (7) among backs in receptions of at least 20 yards with 6.
Because Jamaal Charles isn't 100 percent and Ware is playing so well, the Colts game is ripe for and old-school ground-and-pound weekend for the Chiefs' leading rusher. The Colts defense has seen the past two opponents run the ball a total of 52 times against them. Look for Ware to earn 20-25 touches.
Blount Force Trauma: The Sequel
Cameron Heyward told the media that the Steelers defense quit in the fourth quarter against the Patriots. That's music to my Browns fan ears. I revel in teams beating the Steelers—unless it's the Broncos (and I cheer for Pittsburgh) or the Ravens (and I'm watching the game terminally confused by the fact that the real Cleveland organization is wearing purple and wondering how I can get Art Modell's address in Sports Hell until I realize that Cleveland Browns football is Sports Hell and my imagination grows ever darker...).
The Steelers are clearly suffering from the loss of Heyward, who won't be back until at least Week 9 against the Baltimore Browns, but some of that responsibility also falls on the hyper-aggressive Ryan Shazier who relies a little too much on his athletic ability and not enough on diagnostic skill and discipline.
The left side and middle are providing big creases but Shazier is so bent on shooting gaps for big plays that his lack of patience exacerbates the Steelers' problems. If Heyward were plugging things up, Shazier's mentality works more often. Someone needs to send the memo to the linebacker that Heyward is out.
Here's a short-yardage run in the Pittsburgh red zone where Shazier goes for the strip rather than the tackle. I'm nitpicking at this point because Shazier's teammate is wrapping Blount, but it's another supporting example of the linebacker's mentality that hurts the Steelers more than helps it right now.
As much as I hate to remove the focus from Pittsburgh's woes, let's give credit to New England's offensive line and LeGarrette Blount. Let's also consider the potential good fortune the Patriots have this week against the Buffalo Bills defense, a unit that allowed Miami to past them for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns. Blount only earned 54 yards in the first meeting, but he only carried the ball 13 times.
Todd Gurley earned 72 yards and a score the following week on 23 carries, which with a functional run-blocking line translates to 130-140 yards (if you asked me if I thought I'd be doing the "dog years" calculation for a running back the caliber of Gurley this year, I'd have told you to have a latte with Matt Harmon).
Even that pathetic performance from the Cardinals offense included an 18-83-2 offering from David Johnson. Blount has 5 weeks with at least 18 carries and while 3 of them came during the Brady suspension, I like his chances to earn carries in the mid-20s now that the second matchup with the Bills will require Buffalo to focus more of its attention on Brady.
All By Myself: Devonta Freeman Against The paper Champion Packers front
Wisconsin is paper mill country and Green Bay got exposed as a paper champion against the run after Ezekiel Elliott showed the Packers what a real run game looked like after Green Bay spent weeks facing the weak lines (and/or backs) of Jacksonville, Minnesota, Detroit, and the Giants. Although Chicago only managed 17 carries on Thursday, the defense earned 70 yards—and would have earned more if it stuck with Ka'Deem Carey.
The Packers have eight men in the box on this play and the linebackers can't avoid the second-level push from the Bears' line.
This play below isn't even a well-executed screen in terms of sealing the backside of the defense and Carey still rumbles for good yardage.
Devonta Freeman and the Falcons line are a better run unit than the Bears and they do many of the same things schematically. I never thought I'd say Green Bay would be the unofficial Homecoming Game for Atlanta, but don't be surprised if this one isn't close until the score dictates garbage-time production. Without Tevin Coleman this week, Freeman's range of carries should increase from his current range of 11-23 to 19-29.
Potential Paper Champion: Carolina Panthers defense
Anyone else noticing that two of the three good ground games that the Panthers faced, resulted in good fantasy days? Tampa and Denver's starters toted the rock a combined 50 times on Carolina for 192 yards and a score. The third team was Atlanta, but it was too busy throwing a dozen times to a wide-open Julio Jones for 300 yards.
David Johnson comes to town off a 41-touch evening against the Seahawks. Methinks Seattle's fire heated Johnson's knife just enough that the Panthers' front could look like butter by comparison. If Johnson can force the Seahawks to stop using Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright and go with Earl Thomas as his defensive assignment, I'm not confident in Thomas Davis or Luke Kuechley getting the job done, either.
The Dallas Steamroller is waiting on Philadelphia
The Eagles have only allowed one 100-yard rusher this year. It has also had only one back carry the ball more than 12 times. Do you really believe Ezekiel Elliott only gets the ball 12-15 times this week? If you examine the last three weeks of running back production against the Eagels, there's evidence the Dallas game is about to get ugly for Eagles fans.
- Theo Riddick earned 11-49 on the ground for a Lions team that isn't known for running and most of his gains were efficient carries.
- The Washington trio of Matt Jones, Christ Thompson, and Rob Kelley went 16-135-1, 9-37, and 5-59, respectively.
- Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon combined for 23-98 behind an offensive line that isn't doing anything well.
Meanwhile, Elliott is aiming for his fifth consecutive game with at least 130 yards. You don't need an abacus to tell you what to do.
ONe half of Denver's RB Tag Team is still plenty good
You may be concerned long-term about which Broncos back to own, but the current answer until C.J. Anderson's injury was, don't worry about it! The way the Broncos opened creases against the Texans, both backs were efficient and productive.
Devontae Booker is the long-term favorite you should own because he's John Elway's guy, he's younger, and there's an explosive upside to his game. Watch how decisive and fast Booker hits these creases below.
He's always been fast and decisive into the crease. It's the blessing and curse of his game right now. Get him an opening and his burst and size make him good at tearing through reaches to his upper body. You won't bring him down that often by grabbing him high in the hole.
What Booker lacks is the high level of patience and creativity to let a crease open or find an alternate option with the skill of C.J. Anderson. Booker also lacks Anderson's lower-body power.
The Chargers' front has some good run-stoppers, including Brandon Mebane and Denzel Perryman. But based on Cecil Lammey's reports about Denver's reaction to its performance against San Diego two weeks ago, what we saw from the ground game last week was to be expected. Lammey explained that Denver's offensive line made a lot of mistakes in that game and it went beyond the multiple big runs from Anderson that were called back due to penalties.
Look for a healthier and more disciplined Denver line to open legal creases for both backs at home this weekend.
Quizz Show
Oakland's best method of stopping the opponents' ground game is scoring enough early to remove the ground game from the game script. Dirk Koetter already has a come-hell-or-highwater approach to running the football after getting fed up with Jameis Winston's mistakes. Expect a more balanced attack from Tampa Bay out of necessity this week but if the Raiders let them, the Buccaneers will gladly carry it 39 times like it did last week against San Francisco and Jacquizz Rodgers will lead the way.
I only mentioned eight backs. Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Lamar Miller, and Melvin Gordon all have the scheme, talent, and opponent to join this group. Imagine if the 49ers defense, Jay Ajayi, and LeVeon Bell weren't on bye?
Wide receivers can go have a latte with Harmon, too.