We're all looking for players on the rise. This week's Gut Check examines players on the fantasy borderline—low-end starters, talented backups, and deep reserves who could hit and players you should avoid. This is far from a definitive list of candidates, only ones that caught my eye based on film, stats, or recent news.
Marcus Mariota and Kendall Wright
It's more than just one play, but one play can tell you a lot. This touchdown hookup between Mariota and Wright was a good start.
I like the alignment and play design.The multiple tight ends and the play-action counterpoint fit the M.O. that the Titans have as a power running team. The use of the deep crossing route is the optimal use of a player like Wright in the deep game. Although he had success in the vertical game at Baylor on go and fade routes, the deep cross maximizes his speed while minimizing the potential of him getting pressed.
Mariota has always been at his best when he identifies what to do early in the play and any adjustments he's forced to make have a specific end game in sight. Although he's a nimble, fast athlete, he's not a classically creative player when forced to improvise like Russell Wilson. It's a mind thing, not a body thing.
On this play, Mariota sees the wide open cross immediately and does a fantastic job of sifting through the pressure to set his feet and unload. Wright makes a great effort on the slightly overthrown target.
It wasn't the last big play Mariota delivered from this set and the fact that the Titans designed and executed a successful QB keeper from a multiple tight end look gives defenses an added dimension to consider from these alignments. The matchup with the Browns may diminish the excitement of those who place a lot of weight on opponents, but the Titans schedule until Week 13 is advantageous: Colts (twice), Jaguars, Chargers, Packers, and Bears.
Wright is also in a position to take over for Tajae Sharpe. Mike Mularkey set that in motion when he told the media that Sharpe regressed. If you're trying to beef up a team by trading one excellent player for two good players, one or both of Mariota and Wright are candidates to be in the mix.
Don't be tempted: C.j. Spiller
I don't care if you're a Saints hater, Sean Payton is a great offensive mind. I spoke with a quarterback coach who was working with Drew Bledsoe's kids at a camp this summer. Bledsoe agrees with the way most regard Payton's offensive prowess, calling the Saints coach far and away the best offensive mind he ever encountered.
It doesn't always work out, but when a coach like Payton has an interest in a player, I pay attention. The two teams other than Seattle that wanted to trade for Marshawn Lynch when he was in Buffalo were the Packers and the Saints. In hindsight, it says a lot about Lynch's on-field versatility and intelligence.
The fact that C.J. Spiller earned a contract from the Saints caught my eye but after watching him play, it only appeared to me a matter of time before the team would part ways with the back. Spiller remains the back I've seen since his years at Clemson: an excellent physical talent with all of the tools you'd seek from a playmaker with the exception of one—integrating those skills with sound decision-making.
Spiller got away with it at Clemson because he's an elite athlete. But in the NFL, most players are elite athletes in the truest sense of the phrase. All too frequently Spiller has continued to lean on his speed to the detriment of his offense, bouncing plays outside and making mistakes of focus that eventually frustrate coaches.
The fact that the Saints jettisoned Spiller says less to me about Daniel Lasco and the rest of the depth chart and more about Spiller not maturing as a talent. The Seahawks understandably took a shot on Spiller. I'm sure his workout was impressive. But when the lights go on in the stadium, it appears the dimmer switch goes into effect in Spiller's head.
Or this...
If you're going to monitor a Seattle back to replace Christine Michael if Thomas Rawls' recovery continues to crawl at a snail's pace, consider Alex Collins. The rookie is nowhere near the breakaway threat that Spiller is, but he's smart, versatile, tough, and earning the trust of the Seahawks in pivotal situations.
I'm not telling you to add Collins, just alerting you to the dangers of C.J. Spiller's athletic ability tempting you if Michael gets hurt and Rawls doesn't return soon.
Knile Davis-Don Jackson
I nitpicked Davis to death as a pro prospect while writing for Football Outsiders:
When I saw the 2012 Lewin Career Forecast, I had already studied Russell Wilson. In fact, I told a panel of draft analysts on a National Football Post podcast (beginning at the 17:42 mark) that included Josh Norris, Wes Bunting, and Josh Buchanan that Wilson was my sleeper quarterback in this draft. I was cynical that Wilson would be picked before the third round, but once Seattle opted for the N.C. State-Wisconsin quarterback, my immediate thought was that Wilson would be a pivotal test case against height bias in the NFL.
I think there’s another potential test case in the draft this year, but on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to the dilemma of prototypical skills vs. prototypical measurements. The lead actor in this draft-day drama could be Knile Davis. If an NFL team selects Davis in the first three rounds of this draft, it will be a telling indication that they relied more on Davis’ Combine performance –- and to some degree sabermetrics –- than the opinions of scouts and draft analysts who lean hard on the game tape.
Davis was an All-SEC selection in 2010, rushing for 1322 yards and scoring 13 touchdowns. In 2011, the Arkansas running back missed the season with a broken ankle. Davis underwhelmed in 2012, losing the starting job to reserve Dennis Johnson and only showing flashes of what he did in 2010.
Fast forward to the 2013 NFL Combine, and the 227-pound runner put on a show: a 4.37 40-yard dash and 31 reps on the bench press. It was an impressive performance that vaulted Davis atop Football Outsiders’ Speed Score metric for running backs. According to Danny Tuccitto, a Speed score below 80 is “a giant red flag,” a 100 Speed Score is “average,” and “anything above 120 serving as a giant neon sign.”
This makes Davis’ Speed Score, “off-the-charts good.” If you listen to Davis talk about NFL players of comparison, his self-perception is also top-notch. Andrew Gribble reports that Davis describes his style as on par with Arian Foster and Adrian Peterson.
If you ask me, Davis has some sort of dsymorphic disorder isolated to running backs and American Idol audition candidates. He has the idea that he performs differently than he does. Davis’ style is nowhere close to that of Foster or Peterson. When it comes to talent, if Davis is one of the top-ten runners in this class, then it’s a stretch to place him among the top seven in what is a deep class that lacks superstar talent at the top.
The fact that Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware overtook Davis in short order underscores some of my issues with Davis. But there's a difference between saying Davis isn't a starter talent and Davis isn't an NFL talent.
I believed Davis lacked the top-shelf lateral agility, decision-making, leverage, and ball security to stick as a starter. What he always had was the raw strength, speed, and economical footwork in tight spaces.
Davis will look great when he gets a big rushing lane but he'll frustrate when he's forced to create. Matched with Aaron Rodgers, Davis has enough skill to deliver as a boom-bust RB3 when he's on the field.
I didn't study Don Jackson for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, but there are aspects of his game that caught my eye. I compiled a video of some of his runs at Nevada.
Quickness and balance are positives of his game. He has the burst to turn the corner and turn a good crease into a run that threatens a secondary. He has a functional stiff arm that works best to ward off an angle as he bursts outside. Although he can get into the secondary, he's unlikely to outrun most NFL corners and free safeties with a good angle of pursuit despite a 4.47-second 40-yard dash at his pro day.
I like that he'll stick his nose into a pile and push through a crease in short-yardage situations and there's some balance to work through contact to his lower legs. Although I don't have quick access to tape that I can produce in short order, what first caught my eye about him was how physical he was for his 208-pound frame.
In these respects, Jackson's burst, frame, and balance bear some similarities to Duke Johnson Jr but he could be a more rugged player. But don't get carried away with this stylistic comparison. I haven't seen enough of Johnson's decision-making and third-down tools.
Ty Montgomery remains the most trusted option for the ground game this week. Knile Davis likely earns some playing time but he won't be used in a lot of pass sets unless he has a clear-cut blocking assignment. Jackson is a complete wildcard and unknown because he got hurt during training camp and there's not enough NFL data to project how well he'll transition as a decision-maker in all phases of the game.
Montgomery is the best addition as a fantasy producer. Davis has the best upside for the next 3-5 weeks. And Jackson is a gamble.
Dak Prescott
I'm concerned about the potential switch to Tony Romo, but I like that the team believes in the rookie. I also like even more of what I'm seeing from him as the weeks progress. The ground game and offensive line have allowed the staff to gradually expand the gameplan and Prescott has handled the learning curve well every step of the way.
Although this is a max protection play with only two receivers working down field and the runner working the outlet, the fact that the Cowboys are letting Prescott go down field from the Cowboys' end zone is an indication of the staff's increasing trust in the rookie.
This is a promising development for the offense when Dez Bryant returns because Prescott is succeeding on intermediate routes to options like Butler and Terrence Williams, who also won with this move against the 49ers a few weeks ago.
This isn't to say that the Cowboys haven't abandoned the staples that made this offense click earlier in the year. Dallas continues to pair Cole Beasley with Jason Witten in spread sets that give the illusion of multiple possibilities when what Prescott is most likely to target is this two-man game in the middle of the field.
Prescott's pocket movement is improving, too. He's not just avoiding pressure, he's also maintaining good form with his upper and lower body so he can deliver an accurate ball after clearing the pocket.
It's not a perfect pass and if the coverage were a little tighter, the target gets undercut. Still, I've seen multiple instances where Prescott's movement and accuracy off that movement have improved.
This is not a play that I'd expect to see Prescott deliver as successfully as he did here—especially rolling to the left and throwing across his body. The ball is once again a little behind the receiver and against tighter coverage or under heavier pressure, there could be dire consequences.
Note how Prescott doesn't reset, rushes the throw, and places it well behind Witten. But let's not go crazy about the mechanics. Pressure breaks down the mechanics quarterback play, that's one of its intents.
What's important from this review of Prescott is that he's not rushing his process when he doesn't have to, the offense has a variety of strengths to play balanced football, the staff is opening up the vertical game, and Dez Bryant should be back soon.
If you can get Prescott as a high-end QB2 value by getting his current fantasy owner to agree that the risk of Tony Romo returning reduces his low-end QB1 value, I'd consider him as part of a QBBC if Prescott is part of a package deal for useful starters to augment your lineup.
Wild card: DeVante Parker
Parker not improving fast enough to consider him a primary receiver in NFL terms. The same theme I've been harping on exists: He doesn't play under control. This is different than "possessing good body control."
Most people talk about good body control when they are referring to the skill to leap, twist, and turn for a football. Parker has this skill. What he lacks is the technique, uniformity of movement, and polished product that comes from hard work. This play below should be a touchdown but I explain how his arms and hands are not in a position to make the catch.
I would not want Parker on my team right now but if I needed a receiver, and I could get him as the lesser piece partnered with a consistent talent in a package deal, I'd take the risk because Miami has nothing else beyond Jarvis Landry and Jay Ajayi. If this team uses more heavy sets for the ground game, Parker could earn easier down field opportunities that I illustrated with the Titans offense at the beginning of this piece.
Miami has some notably soft pass defenses on the schedule through Week 16 where Parker might benefit. I'd hate to rely on him but opportunities sometimes take precedence over a finished product.