Photo: Rich Storry, USA Today Sports

Last week's column walked you through a redesigned ADP list. The format of the list revealed salient points that became the basis for various draft strategies. The focus of the piece was the first 9-12 rounds of a draft. 

This week's column examines the redesigned ADP list covering the back half of a fantasy draft. A lot of people don't think strategically enough about the second half of fantasy drafts. The extent of their strategic thinking is limited to individual players—handcuffing and making choices based on upside. 

These are useful and important concepts. But the picks you make during the second half of your draft should be based on more factors than the roles, talent, and potential of the player pool. Knowledge of the league's waiver wire rules is an obvious one.

The less obvious and equally important nuggets are points I've been making for years.  This week's column will apply these insights as the basis of a second-half draft strategy.

No.1 Don't Stockpile QBs/TEs: Performance Sustainment and the Free AGent-Trade Market

The positions that sustain early-season performances the best: Here are the rates that each position sustained its top-12 performances after beginning the first three weeks of the season in the top 12 (2009-2013). The percentage in parenthesis for each position are the numbers for 2014 and 2015.

• QB: 63% (58%, 42%)
• TE: 63% (75%, 58%)
• RB: 50% (30%, 25%)
• WR 45% (42%, 50%) 

Last year's QB and TE figures appear to be an anomaly. If Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota and Tyrod Taylor didn't miss a combined eight games, 2015's retention rate would have been closer its five-year average. Despite last year's exceptional results, I'd still roll with the idea that injuries are a greater factor for RBs and WRs than QBs and TEs. 

In theory, the best starters to trade are the known commodities at quarterback and tight end. In practice, fantasy owners prefer to take their chances with the waiver wire—at least until November and an owner has exhausted all viable options. 

(Strategic Draft Insight No.1: Loading up on quarterbacks and tight ends during your draft is generally a waste of roster resources.)

If you hit on a late-round QB or TE and you can swing a deal for your name-brand starter at the position, the percentages indicate you should do so. 

Trade Tip A: Be aggressive making an offer of a name-brand QB/TE for a name-brand RB/WR but don't count on it happening for the reasons stated above. It's why having a surplus of these positions on your bench isn't a strategically sound path—even if you waited too long and missed on QBBC options you wanted. 

No.2: Understand Trade/Free Agent Dynamics

The easiest positions to trade away are the most difficult free agents acquisitions (ranked in order):

• Known studs at any position
• RB
• WR
• TE
• QB
• Team Defense
• K

This info makes stockpiling running backs and/or receivers the safest plan for building a team during the second half of your draft. If you're thinking about this when drafting after the 10th round, you'll be in better shape. A lot of what is discussed below is based on this premise.

No.3: It's Easier To Find WRs That Can Help you

The five-year averages (2009-2013) indicate that you'll have an easier time finding a receiver through free agency than running back (see Insight No.4 below for details). Check out the percentage of starter-caliber fantasy receivers by season's end who weren't viable starters after Week3:

• 62% of WR3s  
• 30% of WR2s
• 22% of WR1s

Although many of these receivers were drafted by teams, enough of them are cast aside early for free agents coming off big weeks. Receiver is also the most common position dealt in trades either as the main draw or part of a package deal.

It's why it's often best to formulate an approach to running backs first and develop the rest of the strategy around this approach.   

No.4: Stockpile And Hopefully, Trade Running Backs

This statement is not an endorsement of a Zero-WR draft strategy. Remember, this piece and insight above is about the available player pool during the second half of a fantasy draft. Using the same 2009-2013 data, acquiring an RB1 from the waiver wire is a low-odds proposition: 

• 82% of RB1s were at least RB2s (top 24) after Week 3.
• 18% of RB1s produced in tiers RB3-RB7 after Week 3.

On average, that low-odds proposition of landing an RB1 that didn't begin the season as a top-24 RB equals two running backs per season.

Landing an RB2 is easier, especially in today's fantasy football environment where most leagues encourage lineup flexibility that includes 3-5 starting WRs and 1-2 starting TEs. Compared to the paltry 18% of RB1s that began the season in tiers RB3-RB7, 44% of RB2 were ranked No.37-No.60 after Week 3. Not an even comparison between tiers but there are two worthwhile insights to glean from this info:

• Hunting for an RB on the waiver wire is worth a try early in the season or if an injury strikes a lead back working behind a good offensive line.
• Begin trade negotiations after Week 3 if you don't land that waiver wire option.

Running back is the hardest position to acquire and the easiest position to trade away. It makes sense that you acquire enough backs in the later rounds as depth to guard against injury and have in surplus for the open market. How you judge what 'enough' is depends on your first-half strategy. More on that in a moment.

The Efficiency of a 2-2-1 RB Strategy 

One of the reasons I like Ari Ingel's 2-2-1 RB Strategy is that he's thinking strategically about the second half of his roster. Ingel's plan is efficient with acquiring running back depth. 

• The first "2" = Draft a stud back with a proven reserve likely to earn the workload if the stud gets hurt. 
• The second "2" = the same as the first. 
• The "1" = A utility back who either function as the lead or earns a consistently viable touch/target volume weekly.

His plan takes into account that the two most worthwhile positions to stockpile are running back and wide receiver and in theory, he's maximizing space to acquire extra receivers.

If you're playing with a 20-man roster and the lineup is 1QB/2-3RB/3-4WR/1-2TE/1K/1DEF, you're already using 12 of those 20 picks on the starter possibilities above and an extra QB.  It leaves owners with eight picks to split among backs and receivers. 

You could split them evenly. It's a reasonable method. With 2-2-1, Ingel could roll with 5 backs and it leaves him room for 6 additional receivers instead of 4. 

What if both backs in Ingel's handcuff get hurt? Arizona experienced this with Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson last year and some lucky/skilled owner had David Johnson. Certain situations aside, finding a team's RB3 on waivers will work out. Odds are likely you'll get to grab the No.3 RB off waivers when your No.1 RB goes down.

If you hit on this deeper pool of drafted receivers, you'll also have a more compelling supply of options to trade for a running back. Allen Hurns, Michael Floyd, Tyler Lockett, Rueben Randle, Michael Crabtree, Tavon Austin, Ted Ginn Jr, James Jones, Travis Benjamin, Kamar Aiken, and Willie Snead were all available after the 10th round last year. 

Going Upside Down

The goal of this strategy is to develop enough strength at the non-RB positions that if you "hit the bull's eye" on at least one mid-round running back, you've built a high-scoring team capable of a championship run. But after the 10th round, should you lean heavily on WR depth? Split it even between RB-WR? Or, lean heavy on RBs? 

I recommend more of an even split because the strength of this team should be receivers. If you lose some to injury, it's less likely that you'll have the RB depth to acquire receivers through a trade and you'll be hunting on the waiver wire with everyone else. 

This year, I'd recommend an RB1 anchor to begin your Upside Down Draft—especially in a league where you know that your competition are active readers of Internet analysis found on sites that aren't big corporate media. The value will be there.

Balanced Approach

I'd also recommend remaining balanced throughout the draft and keep an even split of RB-WR in the second half. 

High-Upside Picks

It's an important philosophy to consider during the second half of drafts. While a receiver at the bottom quarter of the top-48 fantasy options will help you during bye weeks, a player like Pierre Garcon, Phillip Dorsett Terrance Williams, or Chris Hogan probably won't do much unless the team suffers a rash of injuries. 

You want a healthy number of players (at least 3-5) with top-15 upside at their position if they are RBs and WRs and top-7 upside as TEs. What factors constitute good upside?

1. Top-shelf athletic ability: Speed, agility, strength, and/or leaping ability. They don't need all of the but 1-2 will qualify. 
2. One excellent technical skill that's realistic for a team to exploit: Is he a great pass catcher? Does he run accurate routes? Does he get fantastic position on fade routes? Does he run power as well as anyone in the league? Is he unstoppable on screen passes? 
3. Little competition if the starter gets hurt: If Markus Wheaton or Antonio Brown gets hurt, Sammie Coates Jr' most realistic competition is journeyman Darrius Heyward-Bey. Realistically, that's a good scenario for Coates.

If a player exhibits two of these three factors, he has decent upside. Cordarrelle Patterson only had one of these factors as of last year. Low upside. Virgil Green? He has all three. 

Integrating These Insights into The ADP Format

I'll begin with a similar approach as last week and identify the players that I'd red-shirt and green-light from the list below. I won't be red-shirting as many players because the investment values are low. 

Here's how the chart looks now:

Redshirts: Most of these are players with injury concerns or Notre Dame rookies (what can I say, my inner Hurricane is emerging today).

• Steve Smith - One of my receivers to defend the planet but there are limits to my belief in a player defying the odds of an Achilles' tear and Smith is at that boundary. 
• Jimmy Graham - I have more belief in Smith making a full recovery than Graham, sad to say. 
• C.J. Prosise - I like Prosise's potential but the reality is that he's a wide receiver learning to play running back. He needs time to learn the nuances of the running back position. 
• Breshad Perriman - Partially torn ACL's don't encourage me in July. 
• Will Fuller - Jaelen Strong is earning first-team reps and isn't even on this 16-round list.This Boiler Room Analysis explains what Fuller is still having trouble with in Texans' camp.
• Kenyan Drake - I still believe he's a gadget player until I see otherwise in live action. Until then, I don't see a lot of value for gadget guys in fantasy football. Tavon Austin may be an exception but only because of Todd Gurley and I'm not that excited about Austin, either. 

Green-Lit: Two rookies, two tight ends, and a quarterback.

• Jameis Winston - What he did with a young offensive line and three receivers missing eight games has me optimistic for 2016 in Dirk Koetter's offense.
• Antonio Gates - Until his wheels completely fall off, his zone savvy and rapport with Philip Rivers makes him a low-to-mid-range TE1 at a bargain.
• Michael Thomas - Sterling Shepard often earns the title for the receiver in the best situation but I think it belongs to Thomas with Brees, a quarterback who has made a lot of average receivers highly productive. 
• Mohamed Sanu - While I disagree with Wood that Marvin Jones is a limited talent and overvalued, I agree that Sanu brings value to the Falcons. The former Bengal dropped too many passes in 2014 but he had a zero-drop campaign last year. He'll drop passes in Atlanta because he'll have concentration lapses that come with earning rapport with a new team, scheme, and quarterback. But I'll be shocked if he goes Full Hankerson and drops his way from the lineup and ultimately the team. Sanu is no Roddy White as a route runner and Atlanta didn't find a player that will replace White's skills. Instead, they found an option on the same stylistic continuum as Julio Jones but not as physically talented. It'll work. 
• DeAndre Washington - My favorite late-round rookie back on this list. He'll have a strong shot at beating Latavius Murray for the majority of carries by midseason. 
• Kyle Rudolph - He has always been a good player and a capable fantasy option when targeted. The problem has been two years of offensive line woes that have limited Rudolph's opportunities. A healthy Vikings offensive line will change that downward trend.

More Insights

• The players in bold are running backs with the likelihood of earning feature back carries if the starter gets hurt. I'd throw Isaiah Crowell into that mix but I might consider him more of that utility back in Ingel's 2-2-1 strategy because he's the lead back in a timeshare with Duke Johnson Jr. 
• In addition to Crowell and Washington, Chris Johnson and LeGarrette Blount also qualify as utility backs due to their roles in their offenses and the feature back upside that each provides if injuries strike. These are definitely strong targets for me.
• Derrick Henry also qualifies as part of this group. If you're really a risk-taker, you might decide to go Upside-Down by waiting even longer than the fifth round to begin your block of selecting running backs. More on that later.
• Theo Riddick qualifies as a utility back but he won't have that starter upside if Ameer Abdullah gets hurt. The same goes for Darren Sproles. Worthwhile options for balanced draft strategies but maybe not as much for 2-2-1's with the four RBs listed above still on the board this late.
• Considering that Teddy Bridgewater's output was on par with top-12 fantasy production when Football Outsiders factored out obvious pressure plays on all QBs last year. It's enough evidence that a healthy line should help Bridgewater significantly increase his fantasy production this year. The fact that his ADP is the 17th round makes him a fine value as a QB2 and gives fantasy owners more leeway not to select two QBs in a row or even two within the first 15 rounds. Good luxury if you ask me. 
• If Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets kiss and make up in early August, you might get him before the 15th round in a league with slow-adjusting fantasy owners. If I told you that two top-12 QBs might be available this late, you wouldn't believe me. Most of you don't. I think at least one of them makes good on that projection and it makes them worth the wait if you're a risk-friendly drafter.
• If you coun't Jimmy Graham, which I don't due to his difficult injury, every tight end on the board after round 10 truly has top-12 upside. I'm most dubious about Clive Walford and it has more to do with his development track and the Raiders' usage of him than his talent. 

Finishing Last Week's Drafts

Option A (Rounds 1-16): 

1. WR Antonio Brown
2. RB Doug Martin
3. RB Matt Forte
4. WR Larry Fitzgerald
5. QB Russell Wilson
6. RB Ameer Abdullah
7. WR Tyler Lockett
8. WR Sterling Shepard
9. RB Derrick Henry
10. RB Isaiah Crowell
11. TE Martellus Bennett or Antonio Gates
12. WR Michael Thomas
13. WR Mohamed Sanu
14. WR Kamar Aiken
15. RB DeAndre Washington
16. TE Kyle Rudolph
17. QB Teddy Bridgewater
18. (Defense)
19. RB Zach Zenner
20. (Kicker)

I'd be happy with this draft. Rate My Team or conventional thinking draft analysts might call some of these picks "dice rolls" but there's a ton of depth here at RB and WR that has more upside than it appears. 

About three years ago, grabbing a Bennett/Gates and Rudolph combo at tight end would have cost you two picks inside the 10th round. Other than perception, the talent and production potential remains the same at a much cheaper price. 

Crowell, Washington, and Zenner could all become starters and they're really no worse than bye-week options. In fact, all seven of my backs on this team are projected to see significant playing time during the season. If I'm right with my RB choices but wrong with my QB or TE choices, I'll have trade bait. If I don't have enough depth at RB, QBs and TEs will be moderately easy to find. 

Matt Harmon is an Aiken fan based on the data and Sanu joins a Falcons offense desperate for a second option on the perimeter. Both players have solid WR3 fantasy upside. Their projected roles also point to consistent targets and production that lacks that boom-bust vertical element of players like Philip Dorsett, Sammie Coates Jr, Will Fuller, Mike Wallace, and Terrance Williams who are drafted within the same range. 

Option B (Rounds 1-12):

1. RB LeVeon Bell, Adrian Peterson or Todd Gurley
2. WR Demaryius Thomas
3. RB Doug Martin
4. WR Larry Fitzgerald
5. TE Travis Kelce
6. RB Ameer Abdullah
7. WR Marvin Jones
8. QB Jameis Winston
9. WR Travis Benjamin
10. RB Kenneth Dixon
11. QB Matthew Stafford
12. WR Devin Funchess
13. WR Mohamed Sanu
14. RB Jerick McKinnon
15. RB DeAndre Washington
16. RB Chris Johnson
17. K Justin Tucker
18. RB Zach Zenner
19. (Team Defense)
20. TE Virgil Green

The only semi-unrealistic pick is 16th-round option Chris Johnson, who has a 15th round ADP. There is a realistic scenario where he drops a round—and we've all seen players with this low an ADP drop 2-3 rounds. But I wanted to highlight that I could pick a handcuff like McKinnon (and I said last week that I preferred Peterson even if most wouldn't reach for him here) before the four other backs I selected with realistic expectations of regular playing time.

Is it just me, or is something odd about the fact that there are four backs after a handcuff with a real shot of playing every week and accumulating at least bye-week fantasy production as a "reserve"? If this remains accurate by mid-August, I'm all over this end-game in at least one draft this year.

Virgil Green's high upside allowed me to wait and go a little earlier on a player like Zenner as well as grab a quality kicker.

Option C 

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Doug Martin
3. Matt Forte
4. Jay Ajayi
5. Donte Moncrief
6. Tyler Lockett
7. Stefon Diggs
8. Travis Benjamin
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Michael Thomas
11. Jay Cutler
12. DeAndre Washington
13. Mohamed Sanu
14. Kamar Aiken
15. Chris Johnson
16. Team Defense
17. Justin Tucker
18. Zach Zenner
19. Austin Hooper/Virgil Green
20. Rashard Higgins/Leonte Carroo

I screwed up this second half of the draft last week by going with Cutler and Washington a few rounds higher than ADP. Instead of correcting it, I decided to go with it. I still end with a balanced approach of WRs and RBs as well as a TE that is likely to start and see significant targets. I added HIggins and Carroo into the mix because they are earning first-team reps and could wind up bargains.

Initially, I drafted Russell Wilson at the 4-5 turn, Ameer Abdullah in the 6th, and Markus Wheaton in the 10th, but found that I was lacking at receiver in the later rounds. When I changed out Wilson for Maclin, and Lockett/Brown for Abdullah, I no longer needed Wheaton and now I had my choice of Crowell or DeAngelo Williams. I chose Crowell due to current opportunity. I also had Kamar Aiken in the 14th but with the depth that I gained at receiver, I opted for Washington because I like his upside.

Still, there were some good options here. The key for me was waiting past the 10th round for a QB and TE. If you can do that, this execution of the strategy has wheels. The issue is the early handcuff of Sims. 

2-2-1 Option B

1. RB LeVeon Bell
2. WR Sammy Watkins
3. RB Eddie Lacy
4. WR Jeremy Maclin
5. WR Larry Fitzgerald
6. RB Giovani Bernard
7. WR Tyler Lockett
8. WR Marvin Jones
9. QB Jameis Winston
10. RB DeAngelo Williams
11. TE Antonio Gates
12. RB James Starks
13. WR Mohamed Sanu
14. QB Jay Cutler
15. RB DeAndre Washington
16. TE Kyle Rudolph
17. K Justin Tucker
18. WR Jaelen Strong
19. Team Defense
20. WR Robert Woods

This team was easier to build when I didn't try to go early at quarterback and the handcuffs for my early backs were less expensive. I'm also happy with Benard as my "utility back". Knowing the backs I'm targeting the later rounds also gives me a plan with when to reach for them and the players that should be available afterwards.

These insights and examples should give you plenty of ideas to test in mock drafts with the Draft Dominator App.

Next week, high-risk draft strategies. Stay tuned.