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The Gut Check No.364: Over-Under, RB ADPs

Waldman's first pass at the 2016 running backs through the lens of average draft position.

Precision is overrated in May. The archery, surgical lasers, and nanotechnology will have its time in July. This spring, it's all about horseshoes, hand grenades, and nuclear weapons at the office of the Gut Check. 

We all have to start somewhere. As I create my first set of fantasy rankings, I'm beginning with the broad strokes. Today's Gut Check profiles running backs that I like significantly more or less than the current ADP in PPR leagues. 

A COMMUNIQUE FROM CAPTAIN OBVIOUS 

My values versus existing ADP will change. How much, I have no idea. This article is that starting point. The purpose of this exercise is to note which receivers merit closer examination when creating your draft plans.

Overvalued

Patience Grasshopper...

David Johnson (ADP 8, The Gut Check 59): This difference between the fantasy hive mind and my thoughts can be explained by three factors: ageism, tape study, and inside information. David Johnson aces the "eye test" for most football fans and analysts. He's big, strong, fast, and makes eye-popping highlight-reel plays. When a back does these four things, most people believe it's only common sense that David Johnson will be the starter in 2016 after a terrific showing in 2015.

Add Bruce Arians' statements that Johnson is the team's' bell cow and that the back could become one of the best ever, and it sounds like a ringing endorsement that can't miss. It's likely that my ADP is way too low and I'll have to adjust it later this summer.  

But it's early June and sometimes it's wise to take a step back and examine whether something that's a can't-miss is actually a foregone conclusion. 

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