This is the time of year where your fantasy life is probably a mess. The fact that Ahmad Bradshaw and Justin Forsett are RB1s about sums it up. But I'm just getting started.
If you think Bradshaw's RB1 status with about 60 percent of the carries of his peers ranked in the same tier is out there, check out fantasy's No.10 RB Antone Smith. The Falcons RB has about 20 percent of Bradshaw's touches and he has as many points as Steven Jackson and Devonta Freeman combined. Smith has half of LeSean McCoy's touches and McCoy is No.18.
It sure pays to draft running backs in the first two rounds without fail in fantasy football, doesn't it? Upside Down. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
If you didn't know Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt was an H-Back at Georgia Tech, Washington, and Atlanta then you might have guessed with his offensive offense in Tennessee. I'm thinking it should be called H-Backs Unite!, Delanie Walker Hawaii or Bust Campaign, or the Unoriginal Whizzenator.
Walker is the No.5 tight end and the next best fantasy option for the Unoriginal Whizzenator is No.31 receiver Kendall Wright. Coach Whiz, were the vanity plates for your truck not enough for you? You already have fantasy owners thinking there's a grand conspiracy against Bishop Sankey.
Think Tennessee's a mess? The Titans are probably looking like Martha Stewart's TV kitchen compared to your fantasy roster. Let's continue the tour, shall we?
Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green are week-to-week with injuries that might be bumps in the road, but they could also be Jamaican potholes -- otherwise known to astronauts on the moon as "craters." Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler's names are so close to each other at the top of quarterback fantasy rankings that you can practically hear the smalk talk on the spreadsheet. And what's up with Rivers earning top-five production and not inviting Keenan Allen and Ladarius Green to the party?
Then there's the likes of Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice -- names that make Cecil Lammey's cheeks pucker in fear when he's on-air. You would too if you were afraid that his producers at ESPN might start treating you like Pig Vomit handled Howard Stern at WNBC.
It's a huge mess and it makes it the best time of the year for fantasy football. If you don't love it, you haven't figured out that the challenge -- not winning -- is the best part of competing.
Only losers say, "it's how you play the game," Waldman.
Most people I know who only care about winning give up when things get messy. Those who care about competing are actually more competitive. So if you're 0-6, 1-5, or 2-4 and you're still reading fantasy articles to try to turn around your season, congratulations.
I like catering to these fantasy messes around this time of the year, because I often have a team with this record that battles back, makes the playoffs, and scares the bejesus out of the onetime 6-0 and 5-1 teams that were praying that my squad doesn't make the postseason. If you haven't been reading my work for the past three weeks I recommend you delve into these articles:
- Week 3 Is No Time To Panic - Yes, it's Week 7 and you should be worrying, but if you're diligent about managing your squad, this research should offer you perspective.
- ADP vs. End of Season - Plus actionable moves to consider with trades/waivers.
- Emergent(cies) - Role players on the rise with the bye weeks ahead.
This week is more of a grab bag of observations, advice, and Cliff's Notes scouting.
What Did I Tell you?
Many of you listen, but for those of you who are always nervous about missing the sure things at running back in your August drafts you need to be more frightened of your fear not to try Upside Down drafting. Fifty percent of the RB1s and combined RB1s, RB2s, and RB3s after Week 6 had the commensurate preseason ADP. That's right, you're batting a coin-flip at mid-season with running backs at all three tiers based on ADP (12-team leagues).
You're at least at 58% of ADP-to-real results for WR1s; 58% of ADP-to-real results for WR1s and WR2s combined; and 69% of ADP-to-real results for the combined WR1-WR2-WR3 tiers. Throw in a 58% of ADP-to-real results for TE1s and a 66% rate for QB1s and the opportunity to have the pick of the litter of top WRs, TEs, and QBs seems more appealing in hindsight.
Of course, just like real football, having good talent wins games more than the right scheme. Upside Down Drafting isn't the answer and for some of you it won't be a good answer for you this year or any year. However, if you're not scoring well with the same old strategy, it might be time to try something new.
What Did I Tell You - Part II
One catch, 80 yards, and a touchdown. That was Brandon Lloyd's box score entry for the Rams game last night. It was enough from a bye-week option to win me three games this week and would have helped me win four if I started Lloyd and Louis Murphy over the likes of Andre Roberts and Steven Jackson.
Lucky call? Perhaps, but if you read last week's column then you saw some of the charting I did of Lloyd in the Kansas City game:
- Lloyd saw the field in every offensive series.
- Lloyd was used in two-receiver sets and even supplanted Anquan Boldin in the lineup.
- The 49ers used Lloyd when they were within 50 yards of the end zone.
- Colin Kaepernick targeted Lloyd repeatedly in tight coverage -- including a sequence where he looked to Lloyd twice in a row and after a mistake.
I didn't supply this in straight numerical data, although I could have. It's also data with context that hints at a likelihood of "touchy-feely" concepts like rapport and confidence that some overly prescriptive stat-heads are afraid to touch for fear of being criticized as unscientific by their fraternity.
These four points are the types of things worth noting when you watch football. The results are nice, but the context of the process behind those stats give the numbers vitality.
It's this kind of attention to process that also helped identify Scott Chandler (6-105-0) and Robert Woods (7-78-1) when paired with Kyle Orton; Louis Murphy (7-72-1) as a quality WR3 in the Tampa offense with Mike Evans returning; and Antone Smith (2-5-0, 4-64-1) and Benny Cunningham (7-21-1, 2-12) as a bye-week options.
LItmus Test For Benjamin
I've been supportive of those investing in Kelvin Benjamin after seeing his work in the preseason and there hasn't been much to change my mind in September. The Bengals physical secondary posed the kind of test for Benjamin that I've been waiting to see since he arrived in the NFL and the rookie did not disappoint. Benjamin got knocked silly and maintain possession of the football. He also willingly gave back on a red zone target that was called for offensive interference. Atlhough not a positive for fantasy owners during the game, I liked the toughness from the rookie.
I think my buddy Bloom sees an aspirant Calvin Johnson when he looks at Benjamin. I see Keyshawn Johnson in his prime. Maybe these are subtle differences in shades of gray, but if it helps you see what we're saying by contrasting our takes then go for it.
The black-and-white takeaway is that Benjamin is a strong WR2 with WR1 upside this year and for years to come. I believe Cam Newton is a must-buy in dynasty leagues if you have an older QB1 and Benjamin is one of those reasons. Ron Rivera and his offensive coordinator will either get it together this year or next, or they won't be around much longer. Newton has another 10-12 seasons and he's only going to get better. Benjamin has the same amount of years ahead of him if he stays healthy.
Charting Antone Smith
The Falcons' RB might be the most productive fantasy option in the Atlanta backfield, but counting on him as anything more than a flex-play with boom-bust risk remains a huge gamble. This isn't like the trajectory towards a more significant timeshare that we saw with Isaiah Crowell in Cleveland.
Crowell was used for significant stretches during a series as well as high-impact field position situations (the red zone). The Browns' rookie also earned time ahead of Terrance West early on as a pass protector and did a better job overall.
Smith isn't used in the red zone and he's not given pass protection duties like Jacquizz Rodgers or Steven Jackson. While there's always a chance that Atlanta decides that Smith is good dynamic to continue using in this rotation with three other backs, I don't think the Falcons will make a significant change.
The reason has to do with the execution of the game plan. The offenses uses a wide variety of formations and does a good job of keeping the personnel somewhat unpredictable. For example, tight end Levine Toilolo is used as a slot man, a wide receiver, an in-line tight end, and even as a guard on some running plays. Toilolo's usage also comes in two-tight end personnel, three-receiver sets, four receiver sets, and empty sets.
The running backs have the same variety of use. The play before Smith's touchdown, the back was split outside on the twin side of an empty shotgun set and ran a slant for a 10-yard gain. The following play, Smith's 41-yard score was the result of a screen pass where he began the play in the I-formation.
While there are some predictable outcomes with some personnel that defenses have become hip to like Jacquizz Rodgers' receptions from shotgun shovel passes in the red zone and Julio Jones on smoke screens, Smith's big plays in the flats are still catching defenses by surprise because of the formation variation.
What we're not seeing is Smith earning significant yardage between the tackles or time as a pass protector. The reason might have to do with Smith not being strong in these two areas, but it could also be that he's simply too unproven for the Falcons' taste and the rest of the backs aren't doing anything to lose their workloads, either.
My guess is that Atlanta believes its getting optimal efficiency from the diminutive Smith and it's game plan has enough variability to keep defenses off-balance while using Smith just enough to get consistent impact plays without making the situations predictable.
Isaiah Crowell's Ball Security In Context
The typical water cooler conversation Monday morning was Isaiah Crowell looks good, but he needs to work on his ball security. This is outcome-oriented thinking that stems from seeing three fumbles in the Steelers' contest without understanding the context of the plays. Considering how much NFL coaches dislike fumbles, if Crowell's fumbles were the way the general public were reacting to them do you even think he'd still be on the field after the third fumble, much less the second?
Of course not, and the reason Crowell still earned the ball was because the fumbles in this game were a) unusual and b) not egregious issues. Crowell dropped a pitch that constituted his first fumble. It was a clear mishap that the runner pounced on and then got up and turned a potential loss into a two-yard gain. The second "dropped pitch" was a poor exchange with the quarterback.
When a veteran quarterback like Trent Green, who was the analyst on this game's broadcast, noted that the pitch was not good and made the play difficult on Crowell, it's worth taking into account. The third play was a true "forced fumble," on a run where the defensive back delivered a perfect hit on the ball with a downhill head start. This is the type of hit that would have jarred the ball loose in 9 out of 10 carries by any NFL runner.
If this wasn't the case, Cleveland wouldn't have put Crowell back into the lineup and given him the ball a few plays later -- especially not after the mistakes that occured with the pitches. Ben Tate should continue to be the starter -- and he's a reasonable option as a trade target -- but make sure you get Crowell as part of the deal or from your free agent pool.
On Second Thought
I was wrong about Jeremy Hill. While I praised his NFL starter potential that I saw from him as a junior, I didn't like what I saw from him as a senior and it was the rationale for an evaluation that was skeptical of Hill's starter ability overall. I saw a sluggish-looking senior with high pad level and feared Hill would be more Lendale White than Corey Dillon.
While I don't see Corey Dillon from Hill, I do see a more sprightly, agile version of Rudi Johnson who is more than capable of starter production in Cincinnati if called upon. Part of the difficulty of evaluating players is which seasons to rely on and I chose the most recent because injury and scheme change didn't seem to be issues that would behoove me to work more from the junior tape.
It's not the first, nor will it be the last time, I've underestimated players. I'm not talking about ranking, but actual content that describes the player. Rankings are based on trying to guess the mindset of a team and the competition on the depth chart; content of the evaluation tells you if Alfred Morris or Benny Cunningham can play and how they'll play if they earn an opportunity.
Glaring examples of players I didn't provide accurate pre-draft evaluations in this context? Demaryius Thomas and Andre Ellington immediately come to mind.
Buh-Bye
Bid C.J. Spiller adieu from Buffalo in 2015. That's my thought after watching his play against the Patriots on Sunday. Spiller is still having egregious lapses of maturity when faced with tight creases between the tackles that he still needs to exploit rather than bounce outside.
There's still hope for Spiller's career to take the trajectory of Reggie Bush, but it should be noted that for all of Bush's wild ramblings at USC the Trojans' tailback had a lot more discipline between the tackles than most characterized when he was trying to play highlight reel hero in New Orleans. Spiller didn't have this maturity at Clemson and if he doesn't grasp the gravity of this situation soon, his career could be more Laurence Maroney than fans would like to see.
The fact that Anthony Dixon earned carries when the game was close should tell you that Spiller isn't winning friends and influencing people on the Bills' staff at the moment. I like Dixon's athleticism for his size, but he has struggled with patience and maturity after playing in a system at Mississippi State that catered to his talents yet didn't ask him to grow as a runner.
Even this weekend, Dixon bounced a play outside, held the ball like a loaf of bread that he was using to taunt a hungry defender, and hurdled a man while doing so. It was dazzling for a big man. It was also the type of play that often goes wrong and earns Dixon a seat if he pushes his luck.
My guess for the Bills in 2015? Doug Marrone is gone, the Bills draft a feature back to compete with Bryce Brown if the new staff is even open to one of "Marrone's guys" sticking around, and Spiller is getting one more shot with a team that likes his skills in theory. Odd as it sounds with Bush's uneven performance there, New Orleans could be one of those teams .
The rest of the season outlook for Spiller? Anthony Dixon's usage is a big-time sign to sell.
Bye-Week Dumpster Diving
In addition to Lloyd, Chandler, Woods, Smith, and (still) Travis Benjamin, let's add Brandon Tate to the shopping list. The Bengals receiver was once considered the best wide receiver on a North Carolina Tar Heel squad that included Hakeem Nicks.
The New England Patriots drafted Tate with the hope of developing him into an big-play threat both in the vertical passing game and after the catch -- where Tate often excelled in Chapel Hill. As has been the case with most receivers the Patriots have drafted during the Belichick Era, it didn't work out in New England.
When called into duty as a starter against the Panthers, Tate displayed the same speed and skill after the catch that got him drafted on the first day by the Patriots. He also made plays on some difficulty sideline targets in this game. Mohamed Sanu is clearly the guy to own in Cincinnati's receiving corps, but if you're searching for 5-7 PPR points with the possibility of a big play as icing, Tate is your kind of find.
Ravens receiver Michael Campanaro earned time on the field this weekend in the first quarter. Granted, the first quarter of this Buccaneers game was the equivalent of the last four minutes of the fourth quarter in most, but the rookie from Wake Forest displayed flashes of the skill that left me impressed with his long-term prospects.
The leaping catch over a defender in the end zone is the kind of target that Campanaro illustrated he could handle as the primary option for the Demon Deacons, but it's really his route running expertise against zone coverage that makes him a promising slot receiver. With the Ravens seemingly losing confidence in Jacoby Jones and Marlon Brown, Baltimore used Kamar Aiken in this game.
Listen, I'm sure Kamar and Clay Aiken are nice people and skilled at their craft, but neither of them fit my bill as must-have commodities for my fantasy football or concert-going repertoire. On the other hand, Campanaro's plus ability to win the ball in coverage for a slot receiver might make him the kind of slot option that Joe Flacco will use.
The jury is out on Campanaro, but continue to monitor his progress with the Ravens because he's a talent.
Jace Amaro is still dropping passes over the middle, but Geno Smith isn't shying away from the big fella. Keep in mind that Julio Jones is still dropping passes over the middle -- and the Chicago Bears told the media before this weekend's game that they were going to make it happen -- and he's still a fantasy powerhouse. Amaro has a future in this league if he can hold onto more of those slants in tight coverage that he pulled down this weekend. He's worth your consideration on this moribund Jets offense that has Chase Stuart hiding under his covers with his Hess gas truck nightlight plugged in.
