ABOUT MY PPR TIERS
If you don't know by now, I have a reputation for views on players that differ from the norm. Even so, my rankings accuracy is still very high by industry standards over the past 3-5 years and where I have performed best dovetails nicely with the strategy I write about the most: Upside Down Drafting.
However, my tiers are formatted by my projections and I embed a variety of notations within them so you can tailor this information to a number of different strategies. I will be writing more about strategic angles than explaining where I ranked specific players.
This update contains 20 rounds of players. I have not listed ADP next to the player's name, but I still used italics, underline, and bold to note the following:
- Players with normal fonts are have a ranking from me that coincides with their ADP. I consider them safe plays.
- Italicized players are slightly overvalued (1-2 rounds) if you agree with my ranking vs. their ADP.
- Players bolded and italicized are overvalued by more than two rounds.
- Underlined players are slightly undervalued (1-2 rounds) if you agree with my ranking vs. their ADP.
- Players bolded and underlined are undervalued by more than 2 rounds.
These notations give fantasy owners ample opportunity to plan: When to lay back and when to pounce when it comes to certain players and/or positions. I'll offer a variety of strategic tips as I discuss each tier.
NOTES ON MY UPDATES
I've drawn bold boxes around players in each tier that represent a pivotal movement from my previous update.
As I've told my Twitter followers Monday, the summer is a time to look at player performance in layers or criteria:
- Physical skills (improvement/decline)
- Mental grasp of concepts (improvement/decline)
- Consistency of execution in camp
- Consistency of execution in preseason
- Consistency of execution in the regular season
Tier 1
Strategic Tip: This is the format where Upside Down Drafting is really at home. While I wouldn't blame you if you include Adrian Peterson in the tier of backs that you'd take before Calvin Johnson--admittedly, I often do because I believe Peterson is football's Wolverine from the X Men. Some readers trying UDD for the first time often ask me if they "can pick a first-round RB if they have one of the back-end picks of the first round."
While I'm not going to come to your door and stage an intervention, it makes more sense to me if you opt for two stud receivers or a top wide out and Jimmy Graham rather than select the likes of LeVeon Bell, Giovani Bernard, and the rest of this crew (with possibly the exception of Ray Rice if he's available in the fourth or fifth round).
As I mentioned in the non-PPR update, if your league's starting lineup requirements include one additional WR than a RB and you have to start a TE then UDD is a viable fit as a draft strategy. Remember, selecting the right players beats any strategy. A plan should only be a way to select good players. If you're adept at selecting mid-to-late receivers and you're bad at picking mid-round backs, then UDD might not be the right fit for you.
The only player in this tier who concerns me is Arian Foster. Jene Bramel's When Is It Safe To Draft LeSean McCoy and Rob Gronkowski (and a bunch of other important prospects) covers Foster in detail better than I can explain here.
Tier 2
Strategic Tip: As tempting as it might be to take Eddie Lacy at the top of the second round if by some miracle he falls to you here, I'd resist the urge if it means you can get two Tier 1 receivers or a Tier 1 receiver and tight end.
Unless Lacy, Graham, or one of the Tier 1 RBs fall that shouldn't, this is the round I'd take a receiver regardless of strategy because it's a rock solid tier of players matched with quality passers or in Andre Johnson's case, a proven receiver who has gotten it done at a high level with quarterbacks that Bill Walsh would have tried to take back to the customer service counter for a refund. I bumped Jordy Nelson up a tier thanks to projecting two additional touchdowns to his totals.
Tier 3
I added yards to Montee Ball's rushing totals, but I'll believe it when i see Ball catch the ball when the lights come on because he often fought the ball in games at Wisconsin (even when it made a difficult catch) and I wonder if he's a better practice player in this regard. Ball is a good RB2 and I see how I could be undervaluing him if Knowshown Moreno was a strong RB1 last year. Of course, Moreno was a more natural receiver.
Drew Brees and Rob Gronkowski earned a bump from me as well. I have flip-flopped on the Patriots tight end after a minor scare involving a limp and a the Patriots taking their sweet time before he participated fully in practice.
Tier 4
Aaron Rodgers gets a slight bump thanks to me upping Jordy Nelson's touchdown totals. If you considering taking Kenny Britt here then you haven't read the beginning of this article and you don't understand the nature of these tiers. Go back four spaces and read.
Tier 5
I watched Sankey against New Orleans and I wasn't that impressed. He did what average backs do: He earned yards through the big creases and looked best when the team sealed the edge and he could bounce outside. He struggled when he had to be patient or create when there wasn't a wide gap that a pack of Huskies pulling a sled could get through untouched.
Tier 6
I have Tom Brady in two dynasty leagues and feel like the cat that just dined on Cornish hen (and I did, too). He might be the safest pick in this tier. Not sure you want to get a quarterback here, but if you want a shot at an elite signal caller you can trade away -- and earning suitors to accept a trade for a QB is rare--Brady might be your last shot. Pair Brady with the likes of Wilson, Rivers, or Cutler and you'll have a shot at maximizing your trade value.
Did you see Jonathan Stewart bounce off hits at the goal line last week? As Buccaneers great John Lynch said on the NBC broadcast last Sunday, the Panthers look like a different team when Stewart is healthy. I'll put it to you this way: See those backs in Tier 1? There are only four of them with talent on par with Stewart's.
You can wait a few rounds later (at least) to land the big fella. If he has another ankle issue and begins missing time or sees his carries diminish, you can part company without a lot of hand writing. Most of my fantasy brethren are already hardened to the overtures of Stewart's potential. As long as he doesn't require any pick earlier than a seventh rounder, I'm game.
Tier 7
I'm beginning to worry that Andrew Luck is on his way to becoming the bizarro Ben Roethsliberger -- a fine quarterback capable of carrying his team, but lacks the infrastructure to become a top-notch fantasy QB. A big part of that infrastructure is offensive line play. Remember John Elway's career pre-Shanahan? Yep, this is my fear, especially if Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks don't exceed health expectations.
Sticking with the bizarro theme, remember when Reggie Bush was trying so hard to be great that he was simply struggling to be good? I'm beginning to worry that Robert Griffin is the bizarro Reggie Bush of QBs. Griffin's knee tweak in the Cleveland game compounded my concerns that the Washington quarterback doesn't care an iota about his limits and his ego is writing checks that at a rate faster than his body will be able to cash. Griffin, stop trying so hard and just play quarterback. You're smart, you have a rocket arm, and you have all the potential to become an elite pocket passer.
Use your legs; don't let them use you.
Remember the Kenbrell Thompkins hype? Yeah, that was dumb.
Remember the Stephen Hill hype? Yeah, that was smart.
Tier 8
I increased my projected targets and catches for Kelvin Benjamin. I think the rookie will struggle as key moments, but he'll please fantasy owners as a mid-round value.
Tier 9
If you missed out when it came time to select the likes of Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Jay Cutler, I'd take a chance on Ben Roethlisberger or Ryan Tannehill. The up-tempo system and tougher coaching from Bill Lazor should pay some dividends and the lighter touch from Todd Haley should aid Roethlisberger.
Tier 10
Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill, Lance Dunbar, and James Starks are all players I'll take in the late rounds. All four can man the ground game if needed. As much as I love Ahmad Bradshaw's talent I think his body is on borrowed time that is overdue.
Tier 11
The rest of these tiers are late-round options. I will comment that the receivers in the tier below are worth consideration. If it weren't for Jeremy Maclin's issues staying healthy, I'd say the Jordan Matthews love is a bit out of control. However, he is worth a pick if you can wait on him.
I'd still take Robert Woods because as good as Mike Williams can be when he's focused on being a professional, and not throwing his professional life away due to his off-field behavior, I'd play the odds that Williams messes up and Woods takes over.
Stay tuned after the weekend for Gut Check No.312: Building a Preseason Waiver Wire Watch List.
Tier 12
Tier 13