My Path to Football 5150
I once rode undrafted rookie running back Fred Lane - think Kenbrell Thompkins' improbable story, but with a mid season surge - to a fantasy semi-final appearance. It was fantasy GM genius.
Lane became my last hope for an improbable comeback to put me in our league's championship game. I needed 121 yards and 1 touchdown from Carolina's most unlikely starter on Sunday night in Dallas to put me over the top.
Lane hit the 121-yard mark in the fourth quarter. With time running down, the 5'10", 205-pound runner, who took over the starting job when Tim Biakabatuka got hurt earlier in the year, was leading the Panthers deep into Cowboys' territory. Lane got the ball at the Dallas 10 and took it to the 1 for a first down.
What happened next, I'll never forget: Lane earned four straight tries from the Cowboys' goal line and didn't get in. It's rare that a team gives the same player four consecutive carries (five, if you count the run from the 10 to the 1), even 16 years ago when the NFL wasn't as pass-happy as it is now. Imagine coming that far back to be at the precipice of a championship with an undrafted rookie free agent leading the way only to come up a yard short after four straight tries?
Who knew that two years later I'd be watching the same thing as a Titans fan with Kevin Dyson? Kevin Dyson at the one. The memories come flooding back . . .
Brian Sipe . . . Red Right 88 . . . John Elway 98 yards . . . Earnest Byner at the one . . . Baltimore . . . Kevin Dyson (instead of Randy Moss) at the one!
Niagara Falls!!!
There's only one explanation for me still being a football fan and it's that I "5150ed" a long time ago. With the exception of two dynasty formats, I'm leading the division or not far from the top in most of my leagues this year. It means more than ever, that I'm straddling the line between potential genius and utter insanity.
So this week, I'm sharing 19 Moves of Potential Genius and/or Utter Insanity. The problem is the line between genius and insanity is so blurred that I'm often seeing double or I can't distinguish between the two. Proceed at your own risk.
19 Moves of Stretch-Run Genius and/or Utter iNsanity
1. Trade Peyton Manning for Multiple Functioning Parts: It's unlikely you made Manning the first quarterback off the board this summer. You probably got him in the bottom half of the top-five quarterbacks this summer, meaning even he was a bargain. Some of you might have done what I did, which was grab Russell Wilson later on because I didn't want any issues with Manning's neck to derail my title hopes. If you have QB1-caliber QB depth, trade Manning now and get 2-3 players capable of making your team impenetrable from top to bottom.
2. Get Rob Gronkowski as Part of That Manning Deal: Gronkowski is healthy and it's clear that he and Tom Brady are in sync. Now that Shane Vereen is back, the Patriots now that the same high-low game that the Saints used earlier this year with a healthier Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles to drive opposing defenses mad. Plus, the inconsistency among tight ends during the second phase of the fantasy season is enough to send you into fits of muttering to yourself that could scare the spouse and the neighbors.
3. Acquire Shane Vereen as the "Nor'easter Sproles Corollary": Sproles was the 13th-best running back in fantasy football after six weeks. The past five weeks since Jimmy Graham has been dealing with his foot injury, Sproles has been the 38th fantasy runner. Vereen and Gronkowski are poised for a hot streak and one of the plays you'll Brady attempt every week with Vereen is the wheel route or deep out and up along the sideline. The Patriots love using this play with its hybrid runner/receiver and waited until the fourth quarter to try it against the Panthers. They'll hit it at least 2-3 times between now and your fantasy championship. Wouldn't you like to be on the receiving end of those points in addition to the 12-15 Vereen should earn weekly as the team's all-purpose threat?
4. Keep Peyton Manning at All Costs: If you're in a league with fewer than 14 teams, there should be enough depth on your waiver wire to keep Manning and his potential for 40-60 fantasy points in a given week and stil get quality starts elsewhere. If Kansas City doesn't do a swan dive after losing to Denver - and I don't think they will - every game will count for Denver to earn home field advantage and Manning will remain in the thick of it all.
5. Take a Shot on Le'Veon Bell: No, it didn't take long for me to get unreasonable, did it? Consider this point: Since Week 7, Bell has been the 10th-best fantasy runner available and he's faced defenses like Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit, and New England who all allow fewer than the median fantasy points allowed to running backs this year. I've studied Bell this week at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio Blog and while he has moments that the likes of C.J. Spiller, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles had as rookies, Bell is still demonstrating versatility and big-play ability. He may not mature with his forays to the corner store until next season, but there's still enough to get him at a reasonable bargain if you have depth at quarterback or wide receiver. Cleveland, Baltimore, Miami, and Cincinnati don't look like a great schedule, but I think the Steelers' offense is getting into a groove and Bell has been a helpful part, no matter how much Steelers fans gripe about it.
6. Get Nutty With Ryan Mathews as a Flex: Yep, I said it. Danny Woodhead is the 18th-best fantasy runner going right now, but did you know since Week 7 Mathews is the No.18 fantasy back and Woodhead is No.24? Did you know that Mathews has averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 61 totes during that time and has 2 scores - the same amount as Woodhead, who is sporting a 3.6 ypc during the same span? If you can get Mathews as a flex or low-end RB2, I'd consider it.
7. Don't Have A QB1-Caliber Backup To Deal Manning? Get the Lawn Gnome Starting In Tennessee: Yep, Ryan Fitzpatrick and that otherworldly beard has a fine schedule (Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver, and Arizona) and the offensive line to provide one of those half-season QB1 spurts that he was famous for in Buffalo. Since Fitzpatrick didn't start the year, he should be good enough to propel you for the next six weeks before he peters-out. The quarterback is probably on a lot of waiver wires as it is - talk about a blue light special. Plus, I have something else to throw into the deal . . .
8. Got Fitzpatrick? Get Delanie Walker: Fitzpatrick made Scott Chandler a viable starter in Buffalo for weeks on end, look for the same with Delanie Walker who might complement the Lawn Gnome as well as fake puffy snow. It's the holiday season, everyone will be snockered on eggnog and won't know the difference. Plus your scoring points! If you have weak QB-TE spots and strength at RB or receiver, why not trade some of that depth for headliner and one of Walker or Fitzpatrick?
10. Mid-grade Bargain? Tony Romo: Can you get Romo and a back like Vereen for Brees or Manning? Not sure, but might as well ask, right? Romo has a terrific schedule against defenses that give up points and opposing offenses that can score them.
11. Repeat After Me: You Want Frank Gore. You Need Frank Gore: Washington, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay are a great triumvirate for a Gore fantasy owner. Seattle might be on the scary side, but if there's a back who has made good Seahawks defenses look bad, it's Gore.
12. Say Good-bye to Adrian Peterson: Green Bay, Chicago, Baltimore, and Philadelphia are match-ups enticing enough for Peterson to continue performing like a top-five fantasy RB, but since Week 5 he has been the No.13 fantasy RB and that groin injury has been a compelling reason. It seems insane to deal Peterson, but if you can acquire a stud receiver with a good schedule, I'd do it. Think of it this way, there are 19 backs with at least 90 fantasy points through 11 weeks. There are 22 receivers with at least the same total. If you can profit from Peterson's brand and get better production down the stretch do it. Of course, last time I advocated leaving Peterson alone he nearly broke Eric Dickerson's record. I'm not sure I have a firm grip on reality here.
13. Listen to Matthew Berry, Make a Play for Eddie Lacy: In theory, this is a great move - Lacy gets Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, and Pittsburgh during Weeks 13-16. However, you better be in a secure position and a have a Week 14 bye as your division winner, because I don't trust the Packers' offensive line to open holes for the rookie until Aaron Rodgers returns. Rodgers might be throwing without pain right now, but broken collarbones take 6-8 weeks to heal and he's 15 days into his recovery. Give him another 21 days and it makes Week 15 a safer time to expect Lacy's production to return to the level where he has been a borderline RB1.
14. Don't Listen to My Advice Last Week, Stick With Bobby Rainey: This is one of those situations that could make a fantasy owner snap. Last week, I recommended to sell Rainey high unless, "Rainey earns a majority of the carries, displays a flair for the extraordinary, and appears fresh in the fourth quarter,[then] it might be tempting to hold the runner, but the fantasy playoffs includes match ups with Carolina, Buffalo, and San Francisco. Unless you need a player to give you carries at the running back position, I'd trade him no later than the Atlanta game."
Rainey had 30 carries, 163 yards, 2 touchdowns rushing, and 1 as a receiver. Rainey broke a long run up the middle and weaved through the second level; he displayed fine second effort on a goal line score; he routinely made the first man miss or got his pads under contact to earn extra yardage; and despite some blocks that were a little too low, the Buccaneers' runner was reliable as a pass protector. Adept at both zone scheme and gap plays - something he showed this weeks and at Western Kentucky - Rainey looks like a late-season fantasy hero.
I think what happened Sunday qualifies as that "unless," situation, don't you? I studied his performance and in addition to his workload, the Buccaneers offensive line has done an excellent job run blocking and the play calling with the ground game has been exemplary. Plus, the Panthers, Bills, and 49ers aren't prolific offenses, which increases the chances for Tampa Bay to stick to its run-focused offensive philosophy. Could Rainey be the Fantasy 2013 version of Dominic Rhodes? He just might.
If you got Rainey as depth, perhaps you trade that borderline RB1-established RB2 of yours, get an upgrade at another position, and go with the Buccaneer as far as he'll take you.
15. Got a Strong Roster? Horde Players: You heard me right. I'm tied for first and second overall in points scored in this league with folks you know. I only need to start 1-2 RBs or 2-3 WRs, but my depth chart at each position includes players I could easily trade away to upgrade to a better defensive end or linebacker. But why give away players capable of production that can turn a mediocre week into a strong performance? I know plenty of teams that could use Rashad Jennings, Darren Sproles, Eddie Lacy, Shane Vereen, and/or Percy Harvin. I'd rather have them on my bench knowing that I'm scoring well than getting an extra 3-5 points per week at another position in exchange for a player that gives my potential opponent a 10-12 point upgrade.
16. RB Backup to Own - Joique Bell: If the Lions win the division do you think for a minute that Reggie Bush is going to see the field in Week 16? I don't believe it. Bush has his highs and lows due to injuries, fumbles, and defenses that are better at stifling the Detroit starter. He's had a good season, but his yards per carry and yards per reception is all over the place from game to game because his performances rely so much on the big play. in contrast, Bell is a steady force on a per-carry basis. During weeks as unpredictable as the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, Bell could be a much-needed stabilizing force.
17. Say Hello to Ben Tate: Give up a runner who was amazing with a sports hernia, but rely on a back three weeks removed from four broken ribs, are you mad? Perhaps. What am is confident that we won't be hearing about undrafted rookie Dennis Johnson despite hearing advice from a variety of outlets that he was the guy to own when Arian Foster got hurt. Johnson has enough skill to be productive if called upon, but Tate looks better every week and with Jacksonville (twice), New England, Indianapolis, and Denver ahead, Tate has a fine schedule for his fantasy owners.
18. Buy Low on Bengals, especially Marvin Jones: Cincinnati looked like one of the better offenses in the league before its meltdown in Miami. Two division games later, and there's panic in River City among fantasy owners. Chief among the naysayers are my data-heavy colleagues who couldn't wait to crow about Marvin Jones. The Cincinnati receiver has 9 targets, 2 receptions, and 7 yards during the past two weeks, and had a long touchdown called back in Miami. But after the bye week, the Bengals get the Chargers, Colts, Steelers, and Vikings.
This schedule constitutes one of the best stretch runs for any passing offense and to thing two sub par games and a touchdown-nullifying penalty is going to dissuade folks from hanging onto Jones? I might prove to be biased - and I admittedly am about Jones long-term - but I think they've turned short-sighted thinking into an art form. Last year, Steve Smith was the No.35 fantasy receiver after 11 weeks. By season's end Smith was the No.19 fantasy receiver.
Smith was money in the fantasy playoffs and if you think folks weren't downgrading Smith heading into that stretch-run because of the equity he built during his fine career then you forget that Cam Newton was in the midst of a sophomore slump and these critics were playing the age card with Smith. By the way, Smith's schedule last year included the Chiefs, Falcons, Chargers, Raiders, and Saints - mostly porous fantasy units versus the pass.
If you can get A.J. Green in a mega deal for your stud QB or RB, Andy Dalton as that low-end QB1, and/or Marvin Jones as a slightly more expensive throw-in, do it. It might seem like insanity due to the recent lull in production but the Chargers, Colts, and Steelers can all score but not defend. It smells like genius to me.
19. Cheap Eats - Arizona Cardinals passing game: Palmer's 400-yard game last week vaulted him from No.17 among fantasy quarterbacks since Week 6 to No.12. But in the scheme of the entire season, Palmer is still the No.19 fantasy QB. However, he's the No.19 fantasy QB on a 6-4 team with the likes of Indianapolis, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Tennessee, and Seattle. If you're seeking a back up whose team is still playing for something meaningful just in case Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Matt Stafford, or Drew Brees see the bench during your championship game, Palmer's schedule isn't bad for quarterback points allowed, but it's even better for his receivers.
